Turkish Cup 21-23 March

[rcgills]

21 Mar-19:00	Kayserispor v Besiktas		2.50	3.20	2.50
22 Mar-15:00	Samsunspor v Denizlispor		2.30	3.10	2.75
22 Mar-19:00	Galatasaray v Fenerbahce		2.25	3.20	2.75
23 Mar-19:00	Gaziantepspor v Malatyaspor		1.90	3.20	3.50

Odds from Bet365

[farnerud]

First Leg Scores

Besiktas :2 Kayserispor : 0
Denizlispor : 1 Samsunspor : 0
Fenerbahce : 2 Galatasaray: 1
Malatyaspor : 1 Gaziantepspor : 0

[daikoku]

Hi Farnerud, do you know if the away goals rule applies here, or is extra time played in case of a draw?

[farnerud]

I want to give some early thoughts about cup fixture. Teams will play league matches at other midweek. This means 3 matches at a week. Many teams have targets. For example, Malatyapor, Samsunspor, Gaziantepspor and Denizlispor are in a battle to avoid relegation. League is far more important for them. So I think some coaches may give a rest to important players. Latest news will be available here.

Kayserispor - Besiktas

Two teams met 3 days ago at league. Besiktas scored an early goal at 5th minute than Kayserispor dominated whole match but couldn't find clear goal chances. Besiktas made a good defense. Now Kayserispor must win by 2 goal margin so they have to play more offensive. Besiktas showed that thay can defend well even under pressure, so I think Besiktas is favourite again. But this time draw and 1 goal defeat is enough to qualify. Biggest problem for Besiktas is injury of in-from striker Gokhan.

Samsunspor - Denizlispor

Bottom side Samsunspor has serious relegation fears and lost to Trabzonspor at midweek. But honestly to say they were better than I expected. But cup is not important for them. Coach Erdogan Arıca preffered to play with regulars at first leg while Denizlispor were with a squad mixed of regulars and reserves. I think he won't take the same risk again before 3 vital matches. Denizlispor is in great uptrend at second half but still not safe. My favourite is Denizlispor on paper but I'm planning to bet after latest squad news.

Gaziantepspor - Malatyaspor

Two teams played very important home matches at weekend and both won. Now they will be more relaxed but Malatyaspor is in still relegation zone and Gaziantepspor is not safe. Coach Umit Kayihan made his debut at Malatyaspor and it is not clear how he will put a squad against Gaziantepspor. There are many things still unclear.

Galatasaray - Fenerbahce

League status and type of match is never important. This is the biggest derby of Turkish Football. Two teams are in form at last weeks. Fenerbahce coach Daum had preferred a defensive formation at first match and now Fenerbahce is leading 2-1 on aggregate and I think he will do it again. Galatasaray is playing with a great ambition and with this fantastic strikers are their biggest advantage. But Fenerbahce is playing effective and always likely to score form set pieces. I fancy Galatasaray but this is a tough match like all derbies.

[farnerud]

Samsunspor have sacked coach Erdogan Arica after bad results, club began to search for a replacement. Assistant coach Besim Durmus will be in charge as a caretaker.

[farnerud]

SAMSUNSPOR - DENIZLISPOR

Denizlispor won the first leg 1-0 with reserve squad while Samsunspor was full team. Now two teams are expected to play with regulars. Samsunspor is still managerless, club board still haven't been appointed with a coach after sacked Erdogan Arica so assistant Besim Durmus will be at charge.

Home side Samsunspor is at bottom and in a very critical situation at league. They have 3 vital matches at other week and it will be hard for them to concentrate to this match. Denizlispor is not still safe but they are one of the best teams at second half. With Nurullah Saglam's attacking team formation Denizlispor scored 18 goals at last 8 matches. (It was 12 only at 17 weeks before he came)

Samsunspor must win by two goal margin to qualify, Denizlispor always attacks with many players and they will be able to find gaps at home side's poor defence. Samsunspor is the team that conceded most goal in league (more than 2.00 per match).

A draw is enogh for away side, this is a risk but I think if Denizlispor scores at first half I don't think Samsunspor to comeback. Because Samsunspor won only one match after conceding first goal this season.

Denizlispor to win @ 3.00 (stake 4)

[kompressaur]

Excellent stuff as ever farnerud thanks. Best price i can get on Denizlispor is 7/4. Good luck

[farnerud]

Yes I checked and only betandwin offers 3.00 for this match.

[seyduna]

Galatasaray-Fenerbahce

Galatasaray is favourite today according to Turkish authorities. As they mentioning this everone talks about their attacking power, how effective Umit Karan, Necati Ates,Hakan Sukur and Hasan Kabze are. But unfortunately they have forgotten how weak their defense is. I see it in every Galatarasay match. Erciyesspor could have won the game from 2-0 back if they had been more careful. If even Erciyesspor were able to do that Fenerbahce can do more. Probably they will play with too many attacking players today because Fenerbahce have not concede goals easily since coach Christoph Daum changed his system. Fenerbahce have started to score easier since Daum quitted playing with Alex,Nobre and Anelka trio. Therefore, absence of Anelka is not a big miss for Fenerbahce. The team’s midfield is strong enough to stop Galatasaray attacks. A draw is enough for Fenerbahce; so they are trying to take over the game. If Galatasaray do not score in the first half Fenerbahce will take from the match what they want. Finally the odds that given for Fenerbahce to win are exaggerated.

Fenerbahce + 0.5 1.75 @ Betfair
Fenerbahce to win 3.15 @ Betfair

I will try the second one.

[seyduna]

It was an excellent game. I enjoyed every minute of it. If Alex had not missed that goal which was an incredible,unbelievable chance the match could have ended differently.Anyway, fortunately for us we are gonna watch these two teams one more time next month.

[theitalian]

Is there any team news on the Gaz - Mal game

[kompressaur]

aye im interested too The Italian (welcome to TDP) 45 mins to kick off and i need a bet. got money in the old ladbrokes account again

[theitalian]

Was going to go for Gaz as the odds were 1.90 Bet365 compared to 1.65 with some turkish bookmaker. Thought the local knowledge might be telling me something but couldn't find any team news and so went for the under 2.5 goals.

[seyduna]

Sorry guys.I had been on a trip.I miss this game.I hope you won.