The Crazy Swedish Thread - 29/30th May

[kompressaur]

[kompressaur]

man its soo crazee its supercool!!!

[crowie]

A small lay of Sundsvall today for me at 3.15.

I mentioned in another thread that they are one of the most northernly sides in the Swedish top league. Over the last couple of seasons they have been strong at home and thats kept them in relative safety league wise.

Away from home they are poor. This has been a trend for the last couple of seasons at least (they didn't win away at all in 2003). They now have a record of 2 away wins in their last 32 games. Their record this season is 0-0-3 F2 A7.

Assyriska are bottom of the league having been promoted last season. They have actually lost 4 games in a row which is not the ideal scenario for backing them However I am willing to take a small risk on Assyriska goign undefeated today. They had a decent home record in the lower league this season and have nothced a draw with second top Halmstad already so there is some home.

Lay Sundsvall at 3.15 on Betfair, risking 4.35pts to win 2pts

[crowie]

The other interesting game for me in Sweden is which way the over/unders will swing in the Kalmar v Djurgarden game. Kalmar have been under 6 out of 7 this season and I think they were under 18 times in a row last season

Djurgarden have been over in all 7 games this season.

Betfair go 1.68 under, 2.34 over, some bookies go 1.75 under. No bet but will be interested to see the outcome.

[MickeyPaul]

IFK Goteborg are looking a tough nut to crack so far, would like to see them scoring more though. The visit of Elsfborg may give them a wee chance as they seem to have one of the leakier defences, conceding 13 in 7 games, 8 of them away from home. Looks to be a home win there, I'm not sure the 1.8 is going to tempt me though. Will have a think.

I could be interested in Hackens though...... I'm obviously missing something again but 3/1 for the away, based on the stats I'm looking at, looks way off.

Last 7, Hammarby:
W2 D2 L3 F7 A10

Last 7, Hackens:
W4 D1 L2 F13 A7

Uh huh, why 3/1? Anyone explain?

[crowie]

Sundsvalls poor away form continues, going down 1-0 to the bottom of the league side. They are a lay away from home for me this season.

Unders came in the Kalmar game, 2-0 away win for Djurgarden. Will be interested in each teams respective fixtures as I think they are certainly under (Kalmar) and over (Djurgarden) teams to follow.

[crowie]

Mickey

Re Hammarby v Hacken. I had a quick look at it.

Hammarby's opponents so far are currently placed 11th, 7th, 6th, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 12th (latest game last).

Hackens are placed 1st, 13th, 7th, 3rd, 14th, 12th, 8th.

Hammarby have played 5 out of the top 7, they face another one tonight in Hacken where as Hacken have only played 3. They have also faced all of the bottom 3 so far. Looks like Hammarby have had the harder run.

The thing that puts me off considering Hammarby is their last game where they lost 4-1 at Elfsborg who are 12th. Hacken are a promoted side, won the 2nd Division last season, Hammarby finished 6th in top league.

One thing that did back up a lay of Hammarby was they only won 5 out of 13 at home last season.

I am actually going to take Gothenburg at home to Elfsborg tonight.

Apart from their first home game where they surprisingly lost 3-0 to Assyriska they have been decent enough at home and haven't conceded in their other 3 homes. Elfsborg had that very good 4-1 home win last time out v Hammarby but they have only won 2 all season, the other at home v bottom side Orgryte. Away from home they are 1 point from 9 and have conceded 8 goals in 3 games. Gothenburg will be boosted by the 3 they scored against Orgryte last time at home and did not to badly in the final of the Royal League on Thursday before losing to FC Copenhagen.

Bet365 go 1.80 the home win but on the Asian Handicap Gothenburg at -0.5 meaning they need the exact same result as on the 12X, a win, to land the bet. The price on the AH, for the same bet, is 1.90.

5pts on Gothenburg -0.5 at 1.90 with Bet365.

[daikoku]

Crowie's summed up the Gothenburg situation very well. I'm taking the home team tonight on medium stakes, but I do do expect it to be a wee bit closer than the victory against Orgryte last week.

Elfsborg do have that impressive victory against Hammarby last week. However Hammarby were missing key players for that match resulting in the home side taking maximum advantage.

Last season Gothenburg had one of the best home records in the league:

Göteborg P13 W8 D2 L3 18F - 6A 26Pts

Whilst Elfsborg were one of the poorest away sides:

11. Elfsborg P13 W3 D4 L6 9F - 18A 13Pts

Gothenburg only conceded 6 goals at home last season. I doubt they'll do that this season due to the blip in the opening match against Assyriska. However with the exception of that result they've kept clean sheets in the other 3 home games.

Elfsborg have conceded at least one goal in each of their away games this season. I doubt they'll be able to prevent Gothenburg from scoring whilst they'll have a tough job breaching the home side's defence.