Cracking end to Spanish season tonight with Champ League and relegation places still to be decided.
3 fixtures hold the key
Villareal v Levante
Seville v Malaga
Mallorca v Betis
At the moment Villareal are 3rd and Betis 4th, they are in the CL qualification places. Seville sit in 5th, a point behind Betis.
Levante sit in the bottom 3 and relegation place a point behind Mallorca.
Betis have the hardest job of the 3 as they are away and against a Mallorca side who know they need to at least match Levantes result tonight. If Mallorca lose and Levante get a point then they are level on points and I think, pretty sure, its a play off for the last relegation spot.
Betis away are not too hot, 4 wins from 18 this season. They have been ok of late away from home with 2 wins and 3 draws. However the game is not a "given" due to Mallorca's own position.
Villareal have the 3rd best home record in the league behind the top two and they also have the best home defence. 9 goals conceded in 18 home games is excellent. They have only lost once at home all season and have taken 31 points from their last 33 available at home.
Levante need at least a point tonight and I can't see them getting anything. 1 point from the last 15 available away from home and while they need a result tonight they also needed a result in their last away game, at relegated Albacete, and lost 3-1. If they are losing 3-1 at this sort of side I can't see them getting anything tonigh.
I see Villareal, who have everything in their hands, getting the win they need to ensure a well deserved CL place.
I was also tempted by Seville but there are a few negatives and the only positive is Malaga have "nothing to play for". Malaga have won 3 in a row away from home and their only 2 defeats in their last 8 games have been v Barca and Villareal. Seville have only won 3 from 10 at home this year and one of those was v rock bottom Numancia. Their 6 match form is 2-2-2.
They are just a shade short for me, based on Malaga's form, at 1.50-ish. They could well get the result to put pressure on Betis to do something at Mallorca but not for me at that price.
The Villareal price, although similar, makes much more appeal on recent form of both sides.
10pts on Villareal at 1.50 with Betdaq.
Spain 29/30th May
