Brazilian Campeonato - 12th Oct

[kompressaur]

Wed 12-Oct-05
00:30 Sao Paulo 2/5 Ponte Preta 11/2 Draw 3/1
00:30 Sao Caetano 13/8 Internacional 11/8 Draw 11/5
00:30 Paysandu 11/10 Coritiba 2/1 Draw 9/4
00:30 Flamengo 10/11 Atletico Mineiro 5/2 Draw 9/4
00:30 Atletico Paranaense 4/9 Brasiliense DF 11/2 Draw 11/4
odds from sportingodds

[Kombinator]

Paysandu - Coritiba 1 at 11/10

Simple really... Paysandu with new coach at home against a weakened Coritiba team. I was told 5 players are out for Coritiba which on the top of that are always considered as a "home" team and here they are away. Paysandu is also a "home" team so we have many good factors for the odds of 2.1. You see the value>?
Btw, Paysandu seems like a team that does not like draws especially at home(15 games- 2 draws) so no point of covering it.

P.S. The so called "new coach" syndrom normally works in South America so no reason to believe that it won't work this time

[Kiko]

Good stuff - although i have just been having a look about at recent H2H and it doesn't make for good viewing.

2005-07-02 Coritiba 3-1 Paysandu
2004-10-31 Paysandu 0-0 Coritiba
2004-07-18 Coritiba 1-1 Paysandu
2003-09-28 Coritiba 1-0 Paysandu
2003-05-25 Paysandu 1-3 Coritiba
2002-09-18 Paysandu 1-1 Coritiba

Paysandu haven't beat them in 6 attempts although i do like the new coach coming in. Always get a vast improvement from the players and the team performance when the new coach is installed.

[Kombinator]

Good point, Kiko! Much appreciated.

When I was looking at the unpleasant for the eye H2H I decided that maybe the draw option should be covered somehow but then I remembered the undrawing abilities of Paysandu this season so simply reduced my stake from 8/10 to 7/10(that's what I am taking) Maybe should have reduced it more to 6/10 or even 5/10... so it's up to you guys to decide. A small word in my defense is that the Brazilian as well as the Argentinian championships are so dynamic(players coming and going) that those H2H are not such a strong factor as in the big Euro comps.

[meerdorf]

BRASIL: Campeonato Brasileiro, Serie A

Sao Caetano v Internacional OVER 2.5 goals 1.5 points 1.88 @10bet
Sao Paulo v Ponte Preta OVER 2.5 goals 1 point 1.97 @10bet
Paysandu v Coritiba OVER 2.5 goals 1 point 1.88 @10bet

10bet even have BETTER odds than the exchanges! quick bet before they realise

www.onlinetips.co.uk

[Kombinator]

meedorf,

don't know what that was but it's gone? Was is for long time? I think those Russians will count it as one of those errors and may not pay but you never know... Did you managed to place a bet?

I like:

From 10Bet's prices I like:

Paysandu(-0.25) - Coritiba 1 @2.02 for 7/10(similar to the bet posted above)
Flamengo - Atl. Mineiro(+0.5) 2 @1.84 for 5/10
Atl. Paranaense - Brasiliense over3 @1.746 for 4/10
Sao Caetano(+0.25) - Internacional 1 @1.787 for 3/10
Sao Paulo - Ponte Preta(+1) 2 @2.05 for 2/10


Don't feel like explaining 4 more bets(I am watchng live the World Chess Championship) so let's call the experimental bets!

[raven]

Paysandu v Coritiba will take place in a closed stadium tonight, so the home advantage isn't what it would otherwise be. I wouldn't take 2.10 on the (1)myself but value is in the eye of the beholder, etc...

Good luck with all of your bets.

[meerdorf]

No I didn't place a bet as I am not a 10bet member? Does it happen often with their site as I will not quote them in future?! They wer the odds at that time tough..

[meerdorf]

What a con, I have changed the odds to betfairs

Paysandu game Over 2.5 @1.55
Sau Paulo game Over 2.5 @1.52
Sau Caetano game Over 2.5 @ 1.64

[Kombinator]

meedorf,

It's the first time I hear them(10Bet) go wrong like that... Normally they don't!. Otherwise for the AH punter they are a must have bookie and always pay incredibly fast(I use Neteller). But enough advertising them cause I am not sure if Mr. Kompressaur would like that...

raven.

Thanks for the update, mate! I hate when the latest news go against my bets but this info was post in gazetaesportiva this morning at 9:33 when was way too late for me. Already had the bet placed a lot earlier... Brazilian federation does like to take late decisions. Anyway, I would have played Paysandu even if they were playing away so all I can say to myself now is:"Chico,don't be discouraged!"

[rene]

Hey Welcome Kombinator good work!

Mr.Kompressaur ... like most that you post on TDP

Nice to have some american in TDP Where do you come from in the USA?

Good luck to all gamblers tonight! I stake some money on International....

[Mr Chips]

probably would have permed trebles from six if i could have on the OVERS. They have just kicked off though

[Kiko]

Nice one Kombinator - thought it was all over for you when they went 1-0 down but a 70th min goal and then a 90th minute winner makes it all very sweet for yourself

And unlucky Mr C - That bet of yours wouldve done alright wouldnt it have with 4 of the 5 games going over. Doh!

[Kombinator]

Okay, let's see what happen:

Sao Caetano - Internacional 1:1
Flamengo - Atletico-MG 1:2
Atletico-PR - Brasiliense 4:0
Sao Paulo - Ponte Preta 3:2
Paysandu - Coritiba 2:1

I was bragging about: Paysandu - Coritiba 1 at 11/10 -> 7/10

and then about:

Paysandu(-0.25) - Coritiba 1 @2.02 for 7/10
Flamengo - Atl. Mineiro(+0.5) 2 @1.84 for 5/10
Atl. Paranaense - Brasiliense over3 @1.746 for 4/10
Sao Caetano(+0.25) - Internacional 1 @1.787 for 3/10
Sao Paulo - Ponte Preta(+1) 2 @2.05 for 2/10

So a pretty nice clean sweep with no losses at all!

P.S. I am watching the World Poker Series so will count the winnings later...

[MickeyPaul]

Well done, Kombinator and welcome to TDP (sorry I'm a bit late ).