the Crazy Swedish Thread - 22/23/24th May

[kompressaur]

odds from bet365

[Kiko]

Djurgardens over 2.5 goals is going to have to be the bet for me again in Sweden. Djurgardens have gone over this total in every single league match they've played this season. Their opponents with a 1-1-4 record seem to be quite a poor side so the outright odds for Djurgarden are interesting, not too great though. Some swedish heads with team news etc be great!

[nagga]

Sundsvall - Malmo

Malmo has been abysmal against Sundsvall since their return to Allsvenskan, only 1 victory in 8 games. On the away ground in Sundsvall, Malmo have taken only 1 point in 4 games and they never played well. The Malmo manager Tom Prahl is trying to change the pre-match pattern and the team is taking a special charter flight to Sundsvall, where the plane will land two and a half hours before the game (as oppossed to the standard procedure, a flight one day before the game).

Here are the probable line-ups for the game (as well as for the other two games played today):

http://www.aftonbladet.se/vss/sport/...648993,00.html

Other information from that link include:

1. Sundsvall are plagued by injuries, they have 4 regulars out.
2. Sundsvall have been poor in the previous games, all aspects of their game sucked. They lost their previous 3 games.
3. Malmo's attacking play has been very good, but Markus Rosenberg hasn't been scoring properly.

[kompressaur]

Thanks Nagga and im sorry i never got a chance to put in some input. How did the Malmo game finish?

I'll get into some for the weekend. Hello and welcome (is that Snyea??)

[snyena]

Cheers Komp. Yes, that was me, I will be using Snyena from now on. Sundsvall won 2-0. I am glad I never placed any bets. 3 more Allsvenskan games today and a Norwegian fixture and that's about the only football action for the day, I'll see if I can find some info.

[snyena]

Hammarby teamnews: Petter Andersson, Mikael Hellstrom, Suleyman Sleyman are all out. Jeffrey Aubynn is doubtfull but I understand that he might play. Max von Schlebrugge and Petter Furuseth-Olsen are both doubtful and will face a late fitness test. Erik Johansson (the hero from the previous round) is expected to play, even though he has a minor knock in his ribs and is on painkillers.

[daikoku]

Halmstad - Landskrona

I'll be going for Halmstad win here in a fixture where PaddyPower are offer a nice 1.83(think it may have dropped a bit now)
for the home side. Halmstad were runners-up to Malmo in last season's campaign, but it was close, only 2 points separated
the teams in the end. Halmstad were also the best home side last season with the following record:

1. Halmstad P13 W8 D4 L1 29F - 15A 28Pts

They probably aren't as strong this year after losing forwards Touma and Rosenberg but goalscoring doesn't seem to have been
much of a problem in recent matches.

15-05-05 Allsvenskan Halmstad vs. Orgryte 4 - 2
10-05-05 Allsvenskan Sundsvall vs. Halmstad 1 - 3
05-05-05 Svenska Cupe Halmstad vs. Boden 3 - 2

Landskrona are a young side who will most likely finish in the lower reaches of the table this season. They surprised
a few people when they managed a draw at home against Gothenburg. Recently they've managed deserved wins against weaker
opponents Assyriska and Elfsborg.

Normally I would probably steer clear of this match but one factor makes me quite confident. Landskrona miss Finnish
midfielder Antti Okkonen, and defensive midfielder Jonas Olsson. Both are important players for Landskrona and have played
in all 6 league games so far.

That's too important for me to ignore and I've taken 7 units on the home win @ 1.83 Paddy Power.

[MickeyPaul]

Well, I'm being very protective of my 100% record in Sweden here...

The tiny amount of stats I have to look at say Orgryte look a little overpriced @ 4.50-5.00 (5.3 @ Betfair). IFK Goteborg look to be struggling for goals with just 1 scored in 3 home games while Orgryte seem capable of knocking them in, although they tend to leak a few. Still, I'm hoping for an X2 here - I won't be betting mind but it'd be nice to see. I suppose they're that price for a reason though eh?

[MickeyPaul]

I was just looking at the stats for that one Daik and was leaning toward the X2 as on paper it looked rather close to me. That team news though will hopefully see you come through ok.

Good luck.

[daikoku]

Cheers mickey

If last season's H2H's are anything to go by Halmstad should be comfortable winners against a weakened Landskrona.

Landskrona Halmstad BK 0:4 02.08.2004
Halmstad BK Landskrona 5:3 09.05.2004

I think they also played a pre-season friendly which Halmstad won, but I may be imagining that

I think Landskrona are the sort of team that will cause opponents problems this season. However I reckon they'll need to be full strength to do that. It won't be the case tonight hence my reasonably high confidence.

I forgot to add that I think Ladbrokes have the correct price for the home win @1.67.

[daikoku]

Just been brushing up on my Swedish on the Landskrona website....

Klart är att Jonas Olsson och Antti Okkonen inte spelar då båda är avstängda. Borta på grund av skador är Johan Norell och Matthias Eklund.
- Johan är på g. Han är tillbaka i träning med laget på tisdag. Matthias får vi tyvärr räkna med är borta 5-6 veckor, säger Jingblad.

Basically it confirms that Olsson and Okkonen are suspended for the match. It also mentions that both defender Johan Norell (3 appearances), and forward Matthias Eklund (2 appearances, 1 goal) are both injured.

[Kiko]

Well done guys - we did alright again. This could turn into a top thread, Halmstad doing the business and the over again in the Djurgarden game!

We should take note and start making the bookies pay - EVERY league game with Djurgarden have gone over the 2.5 market!

for everyone!

[CJ Mars]

Goteborg vs Orgyte 24th of May

Going to get involved with the Swedish and Norweigan leagues here and hopefully turn a profit. Stakes will be 2.0 - 4.00 Units ; bank 100 units and both 1/X/2 and over/unders market.

Some interesting stats for this game for the away side:

In their last 6 meetings between the sides the last 4 have gone over 2.5 games;

Last season 10 from 13 of Orgyte's away games have been overs;

This season 5 from 6 have gone over (3 home and 2 away); they're leaky away (only 2 sheets from 13 last season and none this year). They conceded 4 in their last game while scoreing two.

Goteborg have traditionally been pretty tight at home (only 1 from 3 has gone over this season) but the previous history with Orgyte and the porous defence of the latter make the over appealing here.

Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 (Betfair)

[MickeyPaul]

I almost posted something very similar CJ. The over had me very tempted indeed and I may still have a go. Evs @ Betfair.

[Kiko]

Well done guys - we're on a bit of a run in here arent we. Keep it up!!

Is it just me or does a hell of a lot of games in Sweden seem to go over the 2.5 goals?? Anyone have any percentages of this season so far and last season?