Spanish Primera Liga 21st and 22nd May

[crowie]

Wish I knew how to paste the odds from the Bet365 screen, anyways here's the prices in text format.

Spanish Primera Liga

21 May-19:00 Real Betis v Real Zaragoza 1.36 4.00 7.00
21 May-21:00 Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid 1.53 3.50 7.00
22 May-18:00 Albacete v Real Sociedad 2.30 3.20 2.62
22 May-18:00 Athletic Bilbao v Numancia 1.40 3.60 7.50
22 May-18:00 D Coruna v Mallorca 2.37 3.25 2.60
22 May-18:00 Getafe v Sevilla 4.00 3.40 1.72
22 May-18:00 Levante v Valencia 2.60 3.25 2.37
22 May-18:00 Malaga v Racing Santander 2.00 3.00 3.50
22 May-18:00 Osasuna v Espanyol 3.20 3.20 2.00
22 May-20:00 Barcelona v Villarreal 1.90 3.50 3.75


And a nice colourful league table would help too

Rank Team M W D L Gf:Ga GD P
1 Barcelona 36 25 7 4 70-26 44 82
2 Real Madrid 36 24 4 8 68-31 37 76
3 Villarreal 36 17 10 9 62-33 29 61
4 Sevilla 36 17 8 11 44-39 5 59
-------------------------------
5 Betis 36 15 13 8 58-47 11 58
6 Espanyol 36 16 9 11 51-45 6 57
--------------------------------
7 Valencia 36 13 15 8 53-39 14 54
8 Athl.Bilbao 36 14 9 13 59-50 9 51
9 Zaragoza 36 14 8 14 49-51 -2 50
10 D.La Coruna 36 12 14 10 45-46 -1 50
11 Atl.Madrid 36 13 9 14 38-32 6 48
12 Malaga 36 13 6 17 36-48 -12 45
13 Getafe 36 12 9 15 36-44 -8 45
14 Real Sociedad 36 13 6 17 45-54 -9 45
15 Osasuna 36 12 9 15 45-63 -18 45
16 Santander 36 11 8 17 40-56 -16 41
17 Levante 36 9 9 18 38-54 -16 36
----------------------------------
18 Mallorca 36 9 8 19 38-62 -24 35
19 Albacete 36 6 9 21 31-53 -22 27
20 Numancia 36 5 10 21 27-60 -33 25

[crowie]

Some initial thoughts.

4 CL places in La Liga, 2 already sown up and 4 teams to play for the final 2.

A further 2 UEFA Cup spots with only Valancia being really able to challenge the sides above them for a Euro place.

3 go down, 2 already away and its almost certainly between Mallorca and Levante for the final place.


Probably most important game of the day is Levante needing points to stay ahead of Mallorca against a Valencia side chasing a UEFA Cup spot. This is also a local derby.

Levante have been poor for a long time since a good start to the season. Only 3 wins since the middle of November, 26 games in total. However they have been able to pull the odd surprise result out of the bag. A draw last week v Barca and a 2-2 in Seville v Betis in April.

Valencia have been stuffy away from home, only 3 wins all season and 11 without a win away from homei in a row now. However they haven't been getting beat either, only 5 losses away all season, only Barca have a better record.

Valencia's last 4 aways have been draws but they can't really afford one this time.

6 of Levantes last 7 homes have been under including visits from Barca and Real Madrid. They have only scored 6 in their last 8 home games, and 4 of those came in the same match v Osasuna. 5 of the 8 games has seen them draw blank.


Betis are pretty short in their quest for a CL place but you can see why. Only 2 losses at home all season v a Zaragoza side with only 3 away wins. However 2 of those 3 wins came in the last 4 aways including v Betis's city rivals Seville.


One that I might consider laying is Seville at Getafe. Getafe's first season in the top flight will see them end it safely mid table mainly due to an excellent home record. 11 wins from 18 is impressive going for a promoted side. Its also not been a case of them starting off well, like Levante did, and then slipping as the season went on.

At home they haven't lost since the 12th December and if you ignore an opening home loss to Mallorca its only Betis, Villareal and Barca that have left here with wins and they are all top CL challenging sides.

Indeed Betis's 2-0 win was the only time at home they lost by more than a goal. That was also 1 of only 2 games (from 18) where Getafe have failed to score at home.

They have only conceded 3 in their last 10 home games since mid December and its all been to decent sides, a goal each to Real, Athletico Madrid and Depor.

Seville have put up some decent away performances of late winning 3 of their last 4. And they are the side who "needs to win"

I have to say I could be tempted by the following:-

Laying Seville at about the 1.80 price they are on the exchanges.

Looking at Getafe +0.75 on AH, Bet365 currently go 1.90. This may move to +1 if their is a plunge on Seville due to them needing the result.

Straight win on Getafe, currently 5.10 on Betfair

Getafe have been an underated side all season at home and it looks like continuing this weekend.

Some more thoughts later.

[crowie]

3 bets for me

10pts on Real Betis at 1.50 with Centrebet

I fancy their good home record to hold up against a mid table Zaragoza side with no relagtions worries and no European place to go for. Zaragoza have the worst away record of the top 10 sides.

A Betis win tonight will see them jump city rivals Seville and join Villareal on 61pts in 3rd place. This will put the pressure on both these sides who face tricky away games tomorrow.

Also

Risking 5pts to win 6pts by laying Seville at 1.84 on Betfair

For reasons mentioned above.


I am also having a small punt on Barca tomorrow night.

Yes they have won the league so the pressure is off. Yes Villareal have "more to play for" but lets be honest here, Barca, at home in front of a full house of fans wanting to celebrate winning the league. They have a cracking home record, only 9 goals conceded all season. They are playing a side who have 4 away wins from 18.

When else would you get Barca at odds against this season at home? v Real Madrid and thats it IMO. I think they are too big simply because Villareal are the ones looking for the points now.

3pts on Barca -0.5 at 2.075 with Bet365.

If they win and I didnt back them at above Evs v a team with an away record like Villareal then I would be kicking myself. I am don't believe that every team simply switches off when their job is done for the season, especially not one with players like Ronaldinho and Etoo. I think Barca will want to put on a show for their fans tomorrow and they have the players to do ir.

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Like both your first two tips Crowie, especially the lay of Sevilla.

Unsure with Barca though - its all about how badly they want another win now seeing as they have the league wrapped up. Although it could work in their favour and relax them as they wont be under pressure to win games anymore. Villarael are no mugs and are a difficult to break down. Riquelme whos had an excellent season will be wanting to prove he should never have been loaned out, and add to that Villarael are challenging for europe adds to my point of it being a dangerous bet.

[crowie]

Yep, agree with you Kiko. There is a few "what ifs" on the Barca bet but it is lower stakes for me and I just have to have a small punt on them at that price and hope they will be taking it seriously. I think they will.

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Top stuff Crowie

Hopefully Barca continue your good run - ive decided to go on them after seeing Villarael team. No Riquelme :yikes MASSIVE MASSIVE loss, this has been by far there best player this season.

Barca players seem to be up for it and have been presented with league trophy, Larsson on the bench aswell. Hope he comes on and gets back to the level he was at.

Barca outright win at 6/5

5pts.

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Ouch - Forlan scores - against the run of play.

Man Utd couldve done with Forlans finishing yesterday and they might of won the trophy. What a revelation he has been this season. I wonder if Real or Barca might have a look at him - they usually go and snap up someone who has a season like Forlan has!

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Well can you believe that - Barca go miss a penalty and then Villarael player dives to win a penalty of their own and Diego scores a 2nd to put them 2-0 up. Shouldve kept with my original post of saying it was dangerous

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Well what a game - 2-2 now. Great game, bet looks good again mate

Shame ive got to go out now, was enjoying watching it!

[crowie]

3-3 FT, sounds like a bit of a game. Didn't see any of it so don't know whether it would have been worth laying off with Barca in front. Decent bet though on Barca at those odds IMO.