Coppa Italia 12/5 Cagliari vs Inter

[crowie]

Getting back to the actual game itself, I am going for a wee lay of Inter tonight.

Cagliari have been pretty impressive since coming up from Serie B last season. Well impressive in the fact that they have been bloody heard to beat at home. 1 defeat all season, to Milan, back in the middle of October.

Where they have slipped is that the home wins have turned into draws of late. Last 4 homes have been draws (2 x 1-1, 2 x 0-0). They haven't been helped by some injuries to their strikers, Suazo is still out tonight but I believe Zola should play.

They have also won all 3 home games in the Coppa, v Triestina, Lazio and Sampdoria.


Inter have a near identical away record in Serie A to Cagliari's home form. Only 1 defeat away, surprisingly at Messina, on 24th April.

This game finished 3-3 in November at Cagliaris ground.


I think that Inter have to be favourites to qualify for the final as Cagliari away are poor, joint 2nd worst away record in Serie A this season. However I think they could be happy with a draw tonight knowing they should finish the job in the San Siro.

Given Cagliaris home strength and the fact its a two legged tie I will have a small lay of Inter tonight.

Lay Inter at 2.16 on Betfair, risking 4.64pts to win 4pts

[MickeyPaul]

Aye Crowie, I was looking at the stats and it really is hard to pick a winner. In the league, Cagliari are joint top for home draws (8), Inter are top for away draws (11). Cagliari scored 29 at home, Inter 30 away. Only thing that seems to seperate them stats wise is Cagliari's defensive record at home but it's still only 5 less than Inter away.

It screams draw and I hope it comes good for you.

[daikoku]

Well I've decided to go with the overs bet on this game. Let's start by looking at both teams record in the competiton:

Overall Records

Inter Milan 4 4 0 0 10 : 2 12
Cagliari 6 4 0 2 14 : 9 12

Cagliari's Route to the Semi-Final

Sampdoria v Cagliari 3:2
Cagliari v Sampdoria 2:0

Lazio v Cagliari 3:2aet
Cagliari v Lazio 2:1

Cagliari v Triestina 3:1
Triestina v Cagliari 1:3

Inter's Route to the Semi-Final

Inter Milan v Atalanta 3:0
Atalanta v Inter Milan 0:1

Bologna v Inter Milan 1:3
Inter Milan v Bologna 3:1

Inter have only conceded 2 goals in the competion so far, a statistic which I expect to change tonight against strong home side Cagliari. Looking at the Serie A performance of Inter we can see that their 30 away goals makes them the highest scoring team on the road.

Cagliari are impressive at home having only lost once in Serie A all season. However, they have also drawn 8 of those 18 home games. In the 3 home cup games they've only kept a clean sheet once against Sampdoria. Cagliari know that they really have to win tonight as it will be very difficult for them to get a result in the San Siro in the return leg. Therefore I believe they will come out to attack Inter and try to get the required victory. This should leave gaps for Inter to exploit.

I really couldn't pick a winner here, if it was the league I would favour Cagliari, but the nature of cup competition is different. I predict an open match which should hopefully have a few goals.

4 units on over 2.5 goals @ 1.98 Betfair

[MickeyPaul]

You're in with a shout now Daik. :yikes

[crowie]

Sorry to see your over never came in Daikoku but if had been due to an Inter 2nd I wouldn't have been happy

No real surprise, Cagliari loads of draws, Inter loads of draws, game finishes in a draw. I sort of expected that so laying the shorter priced away side seemed the sensible option. You should have been on it Mickey (although I just can't back draws myself).

[MickeyPaul]

Sorry Daik. Two quick goals, I thought you were looking good.

Crowie, I'm the same with draws. Even when you can't see past it, it's still hard to back it. Weird.

[daikoku]

Well done Crowie, you were spot on. Definitely a "could do better" for me though .

Aye Mickey, thought I was in with a shout there :fw

Heh heh just wanted to use that new smilie.

It was from soccerage.
Sorry for the missing source. It is added now.
In future, It will be added the source unless it is a self creation.