Australian A-League - 25th/26th/27th August

[Napoleon Solo]

I followed this league last season, having been able to listen to most of the games through their radio broadcasts. Live games are available on (australian?) Fox Sports, which may be available on one of the web-casting programs (does anybody know if this is true?).

Anyhow, hopefully I'm still up to speed with what's gone on during the post-season, any transfers that have taken place, managers that have come and gone, etc....

I'll probably start slowly, may just place phantom bets for the first few games in order to get a feel for the new league season. The clubs do have a bit of form coming into the season having taken part in the pre-season cup. Adelaide eventually won the cup, and should figure in the final running for this seasons championship, but a lot of the clubs rested players at key times, while some squads were decimated by injuries and international call-ups.


Anywho....

25 Aug 06 11:00 BST Home Draw Away Melbourne FC v Adelaide 2.40 3.20 2.50 26 Aug 06 10:00 BST Home Draw Away Queensland FC v Perth Glory 2.10 3.15 3.00 27 Aug 06 06:00 BST Home Draw Away NZ Knights FC v Newcastle U 2.80 3.20 2.20 27 Aug 06 08:00 BST Home Draw Away Sydney FC v Mariners FC 1.80 3.30 3.70

Melbourne v Adelaide
The last four meetings between these teams have finished in 1-0 victories for Adelaide, and I'm expecting a low-scoring game here as well, possibly the same 1-0 Adelaide victory.

Melbourne finished the pre-season in 5th place, a poor start with 2 losses and a draw being off-set by two wins and a draw in their last three games. All in all, it's been a poor build-up over all though. New found optimism after the arrivals of Scottish midfielder Grant Brebner and a trio of attacking Brazilian players has been overshadowed by their poor results, though decent performances, thus far. Grant Brebner seems to be pretty solid in the middle of the field, alongside midfield convert Kevin Muscat. Brazilian Fred has played the majority of the preseason and links the ball up well with the front players, Alsopp and Thompson, but may be replaced by Australian Kristian Sarkies, who's maturing into a fine player. I believe this Melbourne side may develop into a very good unit, but the team as a whole have had limited time to gel over this preseason and could start slowly.

Adelaide won the pre-season cup, going unbeaten despite having played 5 of their 6 games on their oppositions grounds. They had a tendancy to grind out their results, winning by a single goal on three occasions, while drawing the other three games. They've also played pretty much the pre-season with their first choice squad, only Lucas Pantelic missing out due to serious injury and new signing Bobby Petta due to permit work problems. Last seasons champions had the strongest away record in the league, finishing the season 8-1-2 away from home, their draw and one loss coming in the final two games of the season when assured of top place in the league. For these games they rested some of their more important players so as not to find them banned or injured come the end of season play-offs. Adelaide have kept the majority of the same squad as last season, but have strengthened, both to bring a better balance to the team and to improve their squad depth. Bobby Petta comes in to the squad (but will not play tomorrow due to work permit problems) and Greg Owens adds more attacking options having signed from Sydney. Quite sensibly, they've decided to retain the defensive unit which has made them so difficult to break down during the last season of competition. If any team is going to be up-and-running from the off it will be Adelaide United.

As I've said, Melbourne may take time to gel as a unit, while Adelaide should easily be able to integrate their few new players into their squad. Both teams will be difficult to break down, but United (Adelaide) seem to have some kind of hold over the Victory (Melbourne). Tight game and probably another shut-out for United.

Bets: 0.5 points on both of 0-0 and Melbourne 0-1 Adelaide @ 6/1 each!

[kompressaur]

Great post Rockin but sadly folks aint really into the A-League i find. I had a l;ook at it last year and someone called Sydney used to post up some previews but truth be told i think it was all a bit unpredictable.

Im a Perth Glory fan but i think that wanker Steve Mcmanaman is the manager. I'll look in with interest but it dont light my fire. Aussie State League is where its at. Shame we cant bet on it now

good luck Rockin. What time does it all kick off? 11am-ish?

[kompressaur]

forget that last comment i just saw your match list

[kompressaur]

Australia - A-League
12:00	FT	Melbourne Victory	2-0	Adelaide Utd	(1-0)

forget most of my post

[Napoleon Solo]

Didn't think you guys would go for the A-League stuff Komp!
I know you're Australian State League purists, but I'll persever with this anyway.

Not a great start, but just a speculative bet to get things going. Melbourne finally broke their duck against Adelaide in what was apparently a very open game. A crude challenge from an Adelaide defender earned Melbourne a first half penalty, duely converted by Kevin Muscat, and the scoring was completed by new Brazilian signing Claudinho.
Melbourne started the brighter, Brebner and Fred both providing great attacking options from midfield, while Archie Thompson looked lively upfront yet again. A normally reliable Adelaide defence seemed rather error-prone, Valkanis almost scoring an own-goal, while too many free kicks were given away around the penalty area, though Fred and Owens failed to make the most of these.
Adelaide had a fair amount of chances to score as well, Ross Aloisi forcing a great save from Theoklitos, with Dodd somehow missing an open net from the rebound. Dodd also managed to hit the woodwork in the second half, but a more cagey approach from both teams after the break only resulted in speculative long range efforts more than anything else, one such Allsopp shot rebounding to substitute Claudinho to slot home the second goal of the game.

Melbourne Victory 2 - 0 Adelaide United

Bet: 1 point
Returns: 0 points

[kompressaur]

good on you Rockin. from tiny acorns etc. Have you a list of British players playing out in the Aussie A league Rockin? Usually that appeals to folks. Dwight Yorke was at Perth last year i think wasnt he? . Some fan i am

[Napoleon Solo]

Queensland Roar v Perth Glory

I can actually see a decent bet here and I may well be tempted to make this my first proper bet of the A-League season.

Queensland had a very average set of results leading upto the start of the season, a perfectly symetrical 1-4-1 (4-4) being the result of their 6 pre-season games. The pre-season cup, according to coach Miron Bleiberg, was not about who won or lost but about building a team unit which is difficult to break down at the back, but which also has the potential to push forward and attack. In my opinion, he's done just that over this last few weeks, the Roar being drilled to be a solid defensive unit before he's worked on his attacking option. The addition of attacking players Simon Lynch and Ante Milcic should complement the already wonderful Reinaldo and promising youngster Dario Vidosic.

Perth Glory face all sorts of trouble coming into this game. A dire pre-season wasn't helped by the continual absences of key players each week through injury and suspension. Perth never managed to get anything near a first team squad together for any of their matches and still face the prospect of missing first team players, players returning from injury who are not yet match fit and a squad who haven't had the chance to gel as a unit.
Important midfielder Simon Colosimo comes back into the squad after knee ligament damage, having only managed a full 22 minutes of first team action during the summer, while fellow midfielders David Micevski and Adrian Webster are respectively recovering from the flu and a hamstring problem. Last seasons leading scorer, Bobby Despotovski, is injured so vetran Englishman Stuart Young will probably start up front, with either Naum Sekulovski (who usually plays left wing) or more likely 22 year old debutant Mislav Saric. Defenders Ryan Townsend and Jamie Coyne are also unfit, leaving the backline severely limited in choices.


I'm definitely going to be on Queensland here. Perth coach Ron Smith has even acknowledged that his team haven't had the greatest of pre-season preperations, while Queensland have been progressing very well, building a team that are hard to beat and can score goals.

Bet: 2 points on Queensland to win @ 2.10

[Napoleon Solo]

Queensland Roar 3 - 0 Perth Glory

A scoreline with a look of dominance, but a performance which was anything but. With both teams having added extensively to their squads during the summer and with possibly a hint of nerves in both sets of players, the first half lacked any kind of fluidity and few decent scoring attempts, Jamie Harnwell missing the best chance of the half for Perth early on, while Lynch saw an angled drive well saved by the Perth keeper.

The second half was more lively, Reinaldo missing a header from a Lynch cross early on. Queensland 'keeper Reddy almost gifted Perth the lead after failing to properly punch two crosses into the box. The game swung in Queenslands favour after the introduction of young striker Vidosic in the 63rd minute seemed to give them a boost. Ante Milicic charged down a Perth clearance, letting Simon Lynch open his account from the loose ball. Vidosic added a second after a lovely through ball from Lynch before substitute defender Stuart McLaren added a third just four minutes later.

Bets: 3.00 point
Returns: 4.10 points
Profit: 1.10 points

[Napoleon Solo]

New Zealand Knights v Newcastle Jets

This is a match that doesn't interest me from a betting perspective at all, though I'll be listening intently as to how the teams both perform.

After a poor first season with just one away win and only two points to show from their home games, the Knights have added significantly to their squad over the summer, the most notable additions being former WBA defender Matt Carbon and Scottish midfielder Scot Gemmill. They've certainly looked more solid during the pre-season games, but a record of 0-3-3 (3-6) is certainly nothing to shout about. The club have also been under somewhat of an uncertain future recently, with doubts over their place in the league over the coming seasons and unrest at boardroom level, although both of these issues seemed to have been resolved. The Knights have some injury worries coming into this game, especially at the back with Carbon out through injury and Frank Van Eijs suspended. Striker Dani Rodrigues and midfielder Noah Hickey are alos likely to miss out with injuries.

Newcastle had an even worse pre-season than New Zealand drawing just twice in their six games, one of which was at the North Harbour Stadium against the Knights. Their preseason preperations weren't helped by losing Liam Reddy, Ante Milicic and Ned Zelic, although the arrivals of Joel Griffiths, Paul Okon and Milton Rodriguez have been significant. Griffiths will more than likely start up front for the Jets despite not being fully-fit, however Milton hasn't recieved immigration clearance as yet so will be unavailable. Newcastle should start with three at the back, Paul Okon, Jade North and Andrew Durante, in what should be a rather defensive line-up as the look to shore things up at the back.

Neither team have had ideal pre-seasons, and with the lack of form and amount of unavailable players for each side I'm not going to get involved with this. A low scoring draw wouldn't suprise me!

[Napoleon Solo]

Sydney FC v Central Coast Mariners

The final game in this first round, what should be a decent game between last seasons grand finalists.

Sydney come into this game having had a decent pre-season, despite missing many of their major players due to international duty. David Carney, Alex Brosque, Mark Milligan and Steve Corica return after being with the Australian national side for a significant period recently, while Dwight Yorke returns after an extended World Cup break and a groin injury. Alvin Ceccoli returns after suspension, while Sasho Petrovski is expected to continue upfront having scored 3 pre-season cup goals, as well as Australias winner against Kuwait.

Central Coast have showed during pre-season that they'll again be a team to be feared, having remaind unbeaten, only losing the final on a penalty shootout. However, the Mariners are missing four of their squad to injuries, 'keeper John Crawley, forward Nick Mrdja, and midfielders Nigel Boogaard and Matthew Osman. Paul O'Grady returns after suspension, with both forwards Tom Pondeljak and John Hutchinson returning after injuries. Hutchinson has played 20 minutes as a subsitute but is unlikely to start.

I was thinking of a bet on Sydney here, but the odds are a bit short, especially considering how tough the Mariners have been to beat. Even with their various injuries they've proved over the last few games that they can cope. No bet for me!

[Napoleon Solo]

New Zealand Knights 0 - 0 Newcastle Jets
Sydney United 1 - 0 Central Coast Mariners

As expected in the first game of the day, a very nervy game with little quality on show and few scoring chances. Both teams seemed intent on not losing their first game of the season, and with Shaun Devine upfront for the Knights and Jets playmaker Nick Carle being marked out of the game, neither team looked likely to score.

In the second game, Sydney managed to come away with the win, but in a closely fought game the Mariners could quite easily have taken all three points themselves. Both teams had numerous chances, with the teams taking it in turns to dominate the play. Iain Fyfe's 56th minute goal was enough to see off the Mariners, but it took two wonder saves either side of the goal by Sydney 'keeper Clint Bolton to deny the Mariners.

Bets: 3 points
Returns: 4.1 points
Profit: 1.10 points

Next games - 1st, 2nd and 3rd of September

[kompressaur]

good stuff Rockin. Spot on infact today

FT	Melbourne Victory	2 - 0	Adelaide United
	August 26
FT	Queensland Roar	3 - 0	Perth Glory
	August 27
FT	New Zealand Knights	0 - 0	Newcastle Jets
FT	Sydney FC	1 - 0	Central Coast Mariners