Germany, 26 Aug - 29 Aug

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Germany Bundesliga 2 - 21.08.2011: VfL Bochum - Greuther Furth

Bochum - Greuther Furth Betting Odds, Soccer - 2. Bundesliga

Greuther Furth (+0)
Odds: 1.84 (SBOBET)
Stake: 4/10

This will not be the longest reasoning ever due to lack of time, though I can't see Furth losing in Bochum. Last season both teams closely failed to be promoted. Bochum failed in the playoffs and Furth only achieved the 4th rank. Now both teams play against each other but situations are completely different.

Bochum has a lot of pressure since their season start was pathetic. And not only their results have recently been bad, also their performances were bad. The absence of Azouagh and Korkmaz just couldnt be replaced equally. Last season Bochum was a team with strong defence but not the best offensive but at least Korkmaz and Azouagh were two good football players. Also North Korean superstar Tae-Se showed some terrific performances but he still lacks a lot of match fitness. Without these players and Federico who is out of form, Bochum is a team with a very bad technical ability. The second problem is that best player Dabrowski is out due to injury. Without him, they failed completely in Berlin last week when they lost 2:1 against Union. He is their captain and just vital for them in the midfield, his missing means a big weakening. Bochum did only have one victory in this season up to now which was an undeserved 1:0 at home against poor Frankfurt through a last minute goal.

Furth is just brilliant at the moment. Last week they humilated Ingolstadt at home when they clearly won. There are no mentionable injuries, all players are in great form and the team is just too strong. Last season, Furth would have definitely achieved promotion but due to injuries, they failed closely. Now all great players like Nöthe, Grün, etc are back and promotion this year should be easy. To me, Furth is promotion favourite number second behind Eintracht Frankfurt. Their defence is rocksolid since Mavraj is finally back and it will be very difficult for Bochum to create good goalscoring opportunities against strong Furth's defence. Bochum has just a too big lack of creativity, therefore I am sure that Furth will keep their sheet clean.

And another very important point for me was the fact that Bochum has only a very little home advantage. Atmosphere in their stadium is bad, fans want to see manager Funkel being sacked and home advantage can't be very big here. Also it is a matter of common knowledge that Furth is a team which performs equally strong on the road.

To sum up, Furth should never lose here. Furth has 4 victories at the back without any conceded goal and I really doubt that poor Bochum will be able to score respectively to win. Form, atmosphere, team quality, injury situation - all these points are indicative of an away victory.

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Germany Bundesliga 2 - 27.08.2011: Alemannia Aachen - Fortuna Dusseldorf

Alemannia Aachen - Dusseldorf Betting Odds, Soccer - 2. Bundesliga

Fortuna Dusseldorf (-0.25)
Odds: 1.88 (PinnacleSports)
Stake: 6/10

I think that not very many words are necessary to describe the situation as well as the reason behind this bet. In fact, the poorest team of the league at the moment plays against the best team of the league at the moment. Last season, Aachen was still a pretty good side but since they lost all their important and good players to Bundesliga teams (Stieber to Mainz, Höger to Schalke, Arslan to Hamburg, etc), they are a very bad team now. Stieber and Höger have been their best players in the previous season and they are not able to replace them. Also, their best goalscorer Auer is completely out of form. Actually the whole team is totally out of form. But it is not only the form, also the team quality is simply bad in this season. The defence is still very shaky and probably the weakest one of the league. Last season their defence has already been poor but this season, Erb is the new right back instead of Demai and Demai was the clearly better player. Therefore the defence is even still weaker compared to last season. The offensive was Aachen's showpiece in the previous season but due to the fact that Stieber, Höger, etc left the club, Aachen's offensive is very poor as well. Especially in home games they are absolutely unable to create goalscoring opportunities. This is a very interesting fact anyway. Aachen made a solid (but not a good) impression in their away games. In Aue, they were very unlucky to lose, in Sankt Pauli they were equal but their shaky defence made catastrophic errors and in Rostock they got at least a draw but they were the weaker team. But the home games have been pathetic displays up to now. In their first home game, they were clearly outplayed by promoted team Braunschweig and lost 0:2. Two weeks ago, they showed a disastrous performance at home against Cottbus and lost again 0:2. The atmosphere in the stadium is not good at the moment due to the bad results and not many fans will visit today's match. Now Aachen has 1 point after 5 games which means that they are bottom ranked. And we should consider that it's not that Aachen is simply in a crisis. They are just a very poor team and it will be an extremely tough season for them.

Dusseldorf is the exact opposite of Aachen. Dusseldorf plays so brilliant at the moment. At the moment, they are definitely the best team of the league. Even stronger than Frankfurt and Furth. It was simply impressing how they outplayed 1860 at home last week. 1860 had a 5:0 and a 4:0 victory at the back and is very strong at the moment but Dusseldorf outplayed them completely. That was very impressing stuff. Or the week before when Dusseldorf played 1:1 away in Frankfurt. Frankfurt should say thanks to the referee because Dusseldorf would have clearly deserved to take all 3 points. They have no injured players, guys like Rösler are in the best form of their lifes and their self-confidence should be massive. Nevertheless we should of course keep in mind that Dusseldorf are rather weak travellers but their away performances in this season have been strong so far. If Dusseldorf would play as strong as they did in Frankfurt two weeks ago, then they would clearly smash Aachen.

We should also consider the fact that it is a derby game and many Dusseldorf fans are expected. Probably you will only hear the Dusseldorf fans the whole game which means that the home advantage will be still some smaller.

In fact, situations of two teams couldnt be more different. Aachen is the worst team of the league, bottom ranked and showed two pathetic displays at home. Fans are critical and home advantage will be rather low in this derby match. Dusseldorf plays so brilliant, they are the strongest team of the league at the moment, for example their defence is roughly 2 classes stronger and they have massive self-confidence. The odds still base on the fact that Aachen was a decent team in the previous season but they lost all good players. Therefore odds are not correct here and we have a clearly value bet on Dusseldorf.

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Germany Bundesliga 2 - 28.08.2011: Eintracht Braunschweig - Sankt Pauli

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/ger...i-806248/#ah;2

Sankt Pauli (+0.25)
Odds: 1.83 (IBCBET)
Stake: 5/10

I do not understand for which reason promoted team Braunschweig should be favourite against Sankt Pauli who came from Bundesliga. Both teams play a season which is above and beyond all expectations, nevertheless Sankt Pauli has a much higher performance level. Sankt Pauli got 13 points from 5 games and did only give away 2 points away against strong Frankfurt. And they would even have deserved to win in this match if we think back. On the other side, Braunschweig has recently faltered. People simply overrate them completely. What did we see so far? A 3:1 at home against 1860 who did ridicolous defence errors but 1860 controlled the game. Then a 2:0 in Aachen but Aachen is just very poor in this season and to win there is like taking candy from a baby. The first match (at home) against a strong team was the 0:3 defeat against Frankfurt. They were just completely outplayed and everybody saw that they are nothing more than a mediocre team in this league. Afterwards they won luckily 3:1 in Karlsruhe but this was easy too because Karlsruhe is in a very bad shape. Just yesterday Karlsruhe lost 0:4 at home against the 17th ranked team FSV Frankfurt. And last week Braunschweig played 1:1 against Aue. And they did not even deserve to get more against them. In fact, they are simply an overrated team and it is easy to find value bets against them almost every weekend.

An important aspect is that Sankt Pauli is the best counterattacking team of the league together with Furth. Players like Bartels, Kruse, Schindler and Saglik are excellent for fast breaks. This is the reason why Sankt Pauli already showed two very strong away displays in Bochum (2:1 won) and in Frankfurt (1:1). The defence is rocksolid as well and it wont be easy for Braunschweig to create goalscoring chances. Judging from what I have seen in this season so far, Sankt Pauli was the best team. And most important here is really that Sankt Pauli is a team which is able to perform equally strong on the road.

Braunschweig who came from 3rd division can not be favourite against Sankt Pauli who came from 1st Bundesliga. Due to abovementioned reasons, Braunschweig is overrated and their 3 victories were against very poor sides who were facing a massive crisis. The last home match against Aue proved how poor they actually are. No way they may be favourite against 2nd ranked team Sankt Pauli. Massive value.

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Germany Bundesliga 2 - 28.08.2011: Eintracht Frankfurt - SC Paderborn 07

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/ger...n-806240/#ah;2

Eintracht Frankfurt (-1.25)
Odds: 1.95 (SBOBET)
Stake: 4/10

I rarely go for such massive lines but in this case I will do because there is a lot of value in these odds. Eintracht Frankfurt is the promotion favourite number one in this year because they have a lot of money and the squad with highest quality. Players like Gekas, Hoffer, Djakpa, etc are actually players who have enough quality for Bundesliga. Last week Frankfurt achieved their first home victory against FSV Frankfurt, a team which has slightly better quality than Paderborn. We should keep in mind that FSV Frankfurt is a really good team but Eintracht Frankfurt outplayed them and created enough goalscoring opportunities. This is an important point because Paderborn will defend extremely deep today. But Frankfurt will not have any problems to create goal chances against such a deep defending team. The quality in the midfield is simply too high. Another important aspect is the fact that Frankfurt's best scorer and probably the best player of the league Alex Meier returns to the lineup after his suspension. Technical high skilled players like him will be responsible for the creating of goal chances. So we can say that conditions on the part of Frankfurt are perfect. Full-strength, good atmosphere in the club, a strong 4:0 at the back and of course much, much higher quality.

One reason why I believe that Paderborn will not get anything from Frankfurt is their manager Roger Schmidt. The former manager Andre Schubert was known for tactically preparing his team extremely well and they hardly allowed any goal chance if they played away from home against a superior side. However, Schmidt is a very unexperienced and manager in this will be a disadvantage in such a game. Moreover vital defenders Gonther and Mohr will not be able to make the squad due to injury which means a big weakening in the defence. Palionis is likely to replace Gonther. In the past months, Palionios has always been an instability factor in the back four when he played. Nevertheless we should of course mention that Paderborn got 6 points from 3 away games in this season. But the two victories were against the promoted teams Dresden and Rostock who have a very big lack of creativity in the midfield and a bad conversion of chances. Therefore it was pretty easy to defend well and then hitting them on the break. Today's game will of course be a completely different one.

To sum up, this is a clearly value bet. I do not understand why the market offers a -1.25 line at pretty huge odds. Game will be much clearer and even Paderborn does not really expect to get something from Frankfurt. Frankfurt has massive quality in the midfield with guys like Meier, Matmour and Rode and those guys will be strong enough to create goal chances against a very deep defending team. The last week proved that when they had a 3:0 half time lead against deep defending FSV Frankfurt. Thus I will take the bet on Frankfurt. Paderborn is in fact just one of the weakest teams in the league, their tactical behaviour isn't as strong as it was among Schubert the previous season and they have two very important absences on the central back positions.

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Germany Bundesliga 2 - 29.08.2011: Erzgebirge Aue - Energie Cottbus

Energie Cottbus (+0)
Odds: 1.91 (PinnacleSports)
Stake: 5/10

Derby time in the most eastern part of Germany between Aue and Cottbus. Ahead of this game, everybody says that Cottbus is the clear favourite and I mainly agree with those who say that. Cottbus odds represent some very nice value due to different reasons. I just think that a team like Aue is a perfect opponent for Cottbus. It was no wonder that Cottbus beat Aue twice (6:0 and 2:1) in the previous season. Cottbus is a team with tall and therefore rather slow defenders. Against teams who have small forwards like 1860, Furth, etc this is a big problem. But Aue has a completely different strategy. Aue does not work with short passing play, they just centre a lot and use many long and high balls. Also a lot of Aue's scored goals were scored through corners and free kick crosses but Cottbus will not have any problems to defend in such situations. Players like Hünemeier are really strong in the air but they have problems against small and quick forwards. But for him it will be a perfect game in Aue because of Aue's strategy.

And anyway Aue did not convince me so far. I have seen all their games in this season so far and they are simply unable to tie in with the strong previous season. In the first home match, they got an extremely lucky victory against Aachen. But it was completely undeserved. Then they were able to get a 0:0 from Ingolstadt. They defended extremely deep and Ingolstadt was poor on that day but course of game tonight will be completely different. Then they lost 0:2 at home against Karlsruhe. I saw this game live over 90 minutes. It was simply a pathetic display. No creativity in the offensive, only long balls and suprisingly error prone in the defence. On fourth matchday they lost clearly 4:0 away against 1860 and they were completely chanceless. Last week they achieved a rather lucky draw in Braunschweig. However, in fact all their performances in this season were bad. Last season, they never played good football but they were succesful because of their great self confidence and late goals. This season seems to be a bit more difficult because of the fact that the promotion euphoria from 2010/2011 disappeared and because fans had too high expectations. Atmosphere isn't really good in the club.

I must admit that I do not really like Cottbus in this season and I do not think that they are a serious promotion canidate. But in fact they did very well so far. They won 2 of their 2 away games and both completely deserved. This is a bit strange because Cottbus were poor travellers last season but this season their away displays have even been better than last year. Cottbus made some clever signings like for example Banovic who came from Duisburg. He is also a player who is fantastic in the air and therefore perfect for this game against Aue. Air sovereignty is a vital thing if you want to be succesful in Aue and that will be a big advantage for Aue. The offensive made a good impression so far as well. Especially youngster Bittencourt plays brilliant at the moment. Top teams like Dortmund and Bayern already want to sign him. He is a prodigy.

Another advantage for the guests is that this game is a derby game. A lot of Cottbus fans will travel to Aue to support their club. This means that home advantage will be significantly lower.

On both sides, there are not any absences. Only Cottbus' unimportant player Ludwig is out due to a flu but this is not relevant. Aue's important player Lachheb as well as Kern will return to the squad but both may lack match fitness.

All in all, I believe that Cottbus should be a clearer favourite. How I mentioned above, an opponent like Aue is perfect for Cottbus because Cottbus never has problems against teams with such a strategy. It was actually exactly the same in Duisburg. Duisburg only uses long and high balls and Cottbus did very well with defending these balls and they therefore won deservedly. All in all a bet on Cottbus with high confident.