Germany, 15 May

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Germany Bundesliga 2 - 15.05.2011: SC Paderborn 07 - TSV 1860 Munchen

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/ger...0-359476/#ah;2

TSV 1860 Munchen (+0)
Odds: 1.85 (PinnacleSports)
Stake: 4/10

Pretty even odds in this match but 1860 should be a stronger favourite in this match. Both teams do play for nothing, Paderborn managed it to safe the staying-up two weeks ago when they beat Osnabrück by 1:0. They were really relieved and they had a lack of concentration in Duisburg last week. Duisburg is actually a not really good football team due to many missings but it was still enough for them to dominate Paderborn clearly. Paderborn's problem is the fact that they actually are not a really good football team. In the offensive, they even are one of the poorest teams in this league. Their best striker Manno is still not available due to injury and Kapllani is not in-form yet after his cruciate rupture. Anyway, Paderborn is a team which subsists on their very defensively-minded and tactical play. It is not by chance that Paderborn is always known for low-scoring games in this league due to their defensively-minded approach. But they will of course not play that defensively-minded in their last home game because they have nothing at all to lose. And that could be fatal because Paderborn is nothing without their very defensively-minded strategy. And we should consider that 1860 is known as being one of the strongest counter teams with the best wingers of the league Stefan Aigner and Daniel Halfar. Moreover, the motivation situation for them should be different. They play beyond good and evil for long periods of the season and the fact that they do play for nothing is nothing new for them. Both teams are going to do a few changes as well but rather Paderborn is going to do so. They will for instance play without their main goalkeeper Masuch and a few more changes in the last home game would not suprise me as well. 1860 played without their main goalkeeper last week to give their second one a few minutes but today main goalkeeper Kiraly will be back. And manager Maurer already announced that there will not be anymore changes in the lineup. That should be another advantage for the visiting team. All in all I do expect a very open clash because both teams they have nothing to lose. And 1860 should have major advantages in an open clash because they patently are the much better football team. Therefore I do expect them to get a victory from Paderborn.

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Germany Bundesliga 2 - 15.05.2011: FC Ingolstadt - VfL Osnabrück

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/ger...abruck-359479/

FC Ingolstadt (+0)
Odds: 1.79 (SBOBET)
Stake: 4/10

Balanced DNB odds are absolutely unreal in this match. The home team from Ingolstadt is unbeaten since 10 games, wants to celebrate the last game of the season together with their fans and has big aims in the next season due to their rich sponsors. On the other side there is Osnabrück, probably the most ineffective team in this league. A victory for Osnabrück would mean the chance to stay in the league assumed that Karlsruher would not win at the same time. But the important thing is that Osnabrück would be satisfied with a draw as well because that would probably mean the safe play-offs because nobody expects Oberhausen to beat Cottbus. Two weeks ago, Ingolstadt showed a rather worse home display against Aue when they only played 0:0. But I must admit that Ingolstadt achieved the staying-up 20 hours before this game and therefore they were unfocussed. Last week they showed a good display and they got a 1:1 from 1860 Munich. Therefore concentration seems to be back. Osnabrück has too many vital players out in the offensive and they therefore they absolutely do not have any vigorous power. At home, they play with maximal effort and big passion but they are unable to create good goal chances and striker Kastrati seems to be an opportunity killer. On the road, it is still much more difficult for them to be succesful. They can not make the running and due to their prone defence and their inability to counter attack, they are much weaker away from home.They only won one single time away from home in 16 games and the fact that they now have a lot to play for does not make a victory much more possible. Ingolstadt will not lay themselves back, the last home game for them is a special one and they want to celebrate the fantastic season. Another big difference between them both is that Ingolstadt is absolutely clinical and does not need many opportunities to score while Osnabrück needs tons of chances to score. Osnabrück plays with big passion, was sometimes unlucky at home lately but on the road they will not really have a chance. Their last away game in Paderborn when they lost 1:0 was decent as well but they were just the inferior team. Today, I expect a similar game, Ingolstadt will win this one.

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Germany Bundesliga 2 - 15.05.2011: Karlsruher SC - Union Berlin

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/ger...berlin-359477/

Union Berlin (+1)
Odds: 2.04 (PinnacleSports)
Stake: 4/10


Karlsruhe is just much too dodgy and inconstant to be such a strong favourite at home. The game is of course very important them but actually a draw should be enough for them to stay in the league because staying up competitors Osnabrück and Oberhausen do both have very tough away tasks. Karlsruhe has always played good football for long periods of this season. But due to their shaky defence, they were simply not able to collect enough points. The team had just a big lack of consistency as for instance on the goalkeeper position. First they started with Nicht, then he played very poor and Robles replaced him. Afterwards, Nicht got the nod over Robles and he was back in the goal. Then Robles was the main goalkeeper again (but this one because of injury) and now Nicht plays again. Nicht is actually the much poorer goalkeeper and a instability factor to be honest. The other story was the lack of consistency on the manager position. They first started with Markus Schupp, then Markus Kauczynski was the manager, afterwards Uwe Rapolder and now since a few months, Rainer Scharinger. Karlsruhe actually did not really improve among Scharinger. He seems to put more importance on the defence but he did not succeed with improving the defence so far. Karlsruhe actually improved some lately and I always thought that it would be just a matter of time until results will be there again. But after a few strong performances with bad results, they lately performed poorlöy with bad performances. For instance two weeks ago, they played at home against Düsseldorf (a team with nothing to play for, similar team strength to Union, line +0.25 Düsseldorf) and they were 2:0 in front until the 80th minute. Then their goalkeeper (it was Robles back then) was even able to save a penalty but due to their bad set piece behaviour, they still conceded two late goals through a corner and a free-kick. Last week they showed a horrible performance against bottom ranked Bielefeld when Karlsruhe was clearly much too nervous.

Union has a few vital players out for today, though. Especially in the defence, there are some grave missings. The regular defenders Stuff, Göhlert and Madouni are all out due to injury. But that is not a new situation for Union at all because they always had injury problems in this season. Apart from that, they still are a fine football team. Their recent performances prove that as well. They lost in Bochum indeed (3:0) but they showed a really strong display. It was just an unlucky game for them, a clear goal was not awarded and Bochum scored through their first two attempts on goal. But Union's performance was good, no doubt. Last week they were able to smash Cottbus at home (4:2) and this game proved again that Union is a very strong football team. To sum up, all these circumstances are not enough to make Karlsruhe being such a clear favourite. Union is the better team in every aspect, comparing both teams' recent performances Union is more in-form as well and a draw should be enough for Karlsruhe.

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Germany Bundesliga 2 - 15.05.2011: Hertha Berlin - FC Augsburg

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/ger...g-359472/#ah;2

Hertha Berlin (-0.5)
Odds: 1.86 (UNIBET)
Stake: 5/10

Price has been smashed a lot but odds are still good enough to take the risk. On early market it would have been a very large bet on Hertha but due to limits I had to wait and I will now take the dropped odds on today market. The situation is simple to explain. Hertha achieved promotion three weeks ago. A few days after they have been promoted, they lost 1:2 at home against strong 1860 in front of a big home crowd. I think that was due to the big party night after the promotion. Last week they finally were back too gold old form again when they won deservedly in Aue (2:0). And now, they have a home game in front of 77.000 visitors. Motivation should be absolutely great and Hertha is the superior team. They want to top their great season with a victory against 2nd ranked Augsburg. Dardai is going to make his farewell game and he is going to start instead of regular Niemeyer. That will be of course a disadvantage but I still remember him as a very good Bundesliga player.

Augsburg achieved promotion in a fraught final game at home against Frankfurt. It was unbelievable how they scored a few minutes before kick-off. It was the first promotion in club history and the cheers was boundless. The players drank a lot of alcohol because they achieved their big aim and how things are, this will be a clearly disadvantage with regard to the concentration. But Augsburg subsits on their concentration, they are one of these teams which prefers to win 1:0. There are various examples when teams failed after having been promoted or after having won a title. Lately Hertha was involved when they suprisingly lost 1:2 at home after having achieved promotion on the road. Or in Bundesliga one, Borussia Dortmund when they lost away in Bremen after having won the cup at home. Moreover we may not forget that captain and by far most important defender Möhrle will be out due to suspension. Therefore I expect Hertha to win in front of 77.000 fans against an unfocussed team from Augsburg. Hertha's quality is bigger anyway and Augsburg is nothing without their good defence.

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Germany Bundesliga 2 - 15.05.2011: Energie Cottbus - RW Oberhausen

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/ger...n-359478/#ah;2

Energie Cottbus (-0.75)
Odds: 1.98 (bet365)
Stake: 7/10

and

Energie Cottbus (-2)
Odds: 4.50 (bet365)
Stake: 1/10


That is obviously one of the best bets of the second half of the campaign. Among normal circumstances - balanced motivation, mid-season - the line on the home team should be about -1.25. Cottbus is the much better team in every aspect. Oberhausen is the poorest time of the league by far (worse than Bielefeld!). Their advantage is that their defence is still significantly better than the "defence" of teams like Karlsruher or Bielefeld. But their defence is still a very poor one, so do not take me wrong. They will definitely not be able to defend a 0:0 in Cottbus. But Oberhausen's offensive baffles all descriptions. I have never seen a worse offensive in second division so far and I do follow this league for a couple of years (except Ahlen last season but that was another story...). Oberhausen still benefits from their strong start of the season when striker Lamidi was still in great form (he has potential but he had too many injury problems + intern trouble), when quality striker Felix Luz was still not injured and when their defence had been less vulnerable. Oberhausen only won two times (both times at home) in their last 20 games. The first victory was a 2:0 at home against Paderborn when Paderborn had a full team out due to injury, the other victory was a very undeserved one at home against Karlsruher a few weeks ago. But especially on the road, RWO is still much poorer and they actually have been always chanceless. The fans already lost faith to stay in the league because they know that RWO would need a victory in Cottbus - and that will be impossible. Cottbus is a very decent team. With regard to the technical ability and the potential to create goal chances, they even are top 3 with ease. Furthermore, they have the best converter of the league Petersen (26 goals) who has already announced his transfer to Bayern Munich in the end of the season. But why didn't they play for promotion until the end of the season? There are mainly two reasons. The first one is that they are not able to defend compactly on the road - when they do not make the running (on the road), they always have serious problems.The second reason is their bad tactical behaviour due to their very offensively-minded manager Pele Wollitz and their too bad defence. A propos Pele Wollitz, for him it will be a very special game. His "old flame" VfL Osnabrück is a domestic rival of Oberhausen and Wollitz enhanced during the past days that this game is the most important one of the whole season for him. Therefore I do not expect suprises in the lineups. Motivation should be good anyway, Cottbus is a very strong home side because they patently need a passive opponent. On the road, they do not make the running and they therefore lose but in front of their own home crowd the may make the running what is vital for them. And I actually do not remember any bad home performance of Cottbus .. even two weeks ago they still played with maximal effort at home when they were close to beat Augsburg (2nd). However, Cottbus has vital players out in the defence and their defence will still be some poorer. Best defender Brenzska and the wing defenders Ziebig and Soma will both be not available. That means that poor Straith is going to start. But I actually do not think that RWO will be good enough to exploit that - against any team of the league I would be very careful among these circumstances, but not against RWO. Their offensive has just a too big lack of vigorous power, I therefore do not see them creating enough goal chances. It all in all should be an easy game for Cottbus considering the big class difference and keeping in mind that motivation for the home team should be still pretty good. -0.75 is the much better choice because if Cottbus will win, they will clearly smash RWO. A 1:0 or 2:1 would be strange.