Germany, 29 Apr - 02 May

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Germany Bundesliga 2 - 29.04.2011: Hertha Berlin - TSV 1860 Munchen

Hertha Berlin - Munich 1860 Betting Odds, Soccer - 2. Bundesliga

TSV 1860 Munchen (+1)
Odds: 2.26 (PinnacleSports)
Stake: 6/10

A very, very short try on 1860 makes also sense. I will not consider that into statistics but:

TSV 1860 Munchen ML
Odds: 7.80 (PinnacleSports)
Stake: 0.25/10

Incredible large value on 1860, they actually are one of the best teams of the league and today they have to travel to Berlin to play against Hertha. Hertha Berlin is of course the team of the league with the biggest quality and their performances in 2011 were quite convincing. However, there are several reasons why I do not see them winning today. The major reason to go against them is the fact that they were promoted on Monday in Duisburg. The team celebrated their promotion a lot and I am sure that the players drank the one or other glass alcohol. My experience proves that teams often were not able to perform completely good after being promoted. There were several examples, for example last year in Bundesliga2. St. Pauli (a very strong home team) was promoted away in Greuther Furth and some days later they had an easy home task against mid-table team Paderborn. They were clear favourites, every dumb idiot took them but in the end of the day they were too unconcentrated and they lost 1:2. Or just lately my local team Braunschweig was promoted away from home to 2. Bundesliga, a few days later they played at home against a relegation battler and although they were clear favourites they only got a 1:1. I do not doubt that Berlin will be motivated to give their great fans a victory and among normal circumstances, I would not go against them in this situation. But 1860 is not an average mid-table team or something, in fact 1860 is maybe the second best team behind Berlin although the table reveals something else. Another reason is the fact that Hertha will perhaps be without Hubnik and Niemeyer. Both players are key players and without them they would be much weaker. Their best defender Hubnik has muscular problems, their essential midfielder Niemeyer suffers from a lacerated wound. Hertha's lineup:

Aerts - Lell, Mijatovic, Neumann, Kobiashvili- Lustenberger, Niemeyer - Ebert, Raffael, Ramos - Lasogga

On the other hand, there is not much to say about 1860. It is actually defies any explanation that they only rank in the midfield of the table. They lost two times consecutively on the road but in both cases (2:1 lost in Aachen, 2:1 lost in Frankfurt) they were the clearly better team and very unlucky to lose. Moreover, 1860 is a team without a big gap between home and away performances. 1860 will be nearly full-strength (Ignjovski is out but Schindler is a nearly equal replacement), motivation will be good (1860 plays for nothing for months) and the team is known for their perfect counter play with players like Halfar and Aigner. Halfar and Aigner are both great in form and at the moment by far the strongest wingers from the league. 1860's lineup:

Kiraly - Rukavina, Aygün, Buck, Schindler - Stahl, Bülow - Aigner, Halfar - Volland, Lauth

To make a long story short, Hertha will be motivated but definitely not 100% concentrated after having been promoted on Monday. Hertha only had three days for build-up and regeneration, 1860 had five days. Even if Hertha would still play for promotion, the price on 1860 would be much too big and I would take them. But due to the fact that Berlin was promoted on Monday, that they will maybe be "hungover", the bet is still much better. All in all this handicap is just unreal, I expect 1860 to be the stronger team today.

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Germany Bundesliga 2 - 29.04.2011: SC Paderborn 07 - VfL Osnabruck

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/ger...k-359461/#ah;2

SC Paderborn 07 (-0.25)
Odds: 1.79 (SBOBET)
Stake: 5/10

And I do expect a very low scoring game, both teams have very poor strikers but at least Paderborn has a pretty strong defence. Moreover the game is very important for both teams. I expect a tactical match without many goal chances.

Under 2.25 goals
Odds: 2.17 (SBOBET)
Stake: 1/10

East Westphalia derby between Paderborn and Osnabruck. Both teams are still in relegation danger but the hosts have the much better initial situation. A draw would be okay for both teams at first view but Paderborn's manager Andre Schubert announced that his team unconditionally wants to win this match. A home victory would mean the safe staying up for Paderborn, therefore I do not see them having big motivation problems. Paderborn plays an average season but lately they were unlucky and in fact, they are without a victory since February. Anyway, the way how they recently performed was pretty good. They were clearly superior at home against Frankfurt but they only got a draw due to a last-minute equalizer, they were better at home against in-form Ingolstadt (but soft penalty for Ingolstadt, etc) and they showed a decent home performance against promotion canidate Bochum last week when they got a 0:0. Furthermore, they showed good away displays when they were clear underdogs in Berlin (2:0) and Furth (2:0) but they were unlucky with the conversion of chances, hence they did not reward themselves for their good displays. The important thing is that there are no internal problems or something like that, the team still plays good football but fortune is just not on their side. Paderborn's regular defender Raitala is out due to injury but he is not a key player or something like that but rather someone who plays without attracting attention. Manno will be out too because he sustained again a new injury but he is absent for 90% of the season anyway. It will not be difficult to replace these two players equally:

Masuch - Wemmer, Mohr, Strohdiek, Gonther - Krösche - Alushi, Guie-Mien, Brückner - Kapllani, Jansen

Osnabrück is a team which plays with big passion but their main problem is that they patently are a very bad football team. Their home display against Frankfurt last week was a perfect example. They tried a lot, they showed a great running ability but in the end of the day they were just unable to create goal chances against a lethargic team. Frankfurt played beneath contempt but Osnabrück was unable to take advantage of that. Another big problem for them is their confirmed bad conversion of chances. Kastrati lately became an opportunity killer. And another big problem is that this team has a big lack of creativity. Their best football player and playmaker Lindemann is suspended out of disciplinary reasons. Many other players are still out due to injury as well, for example key players like Andersen, Schöneberg or strikers like Bencik, Diabang and Kotuljac. In fact, Osnabrück is a very weak team and of course much worse than Paderborn. Due to the fact that this team is dependent on their amazing home crowd (in my opinion, Osnabrück has the best home crowd of the league), they are shitty travellers. They lost 11 of their 14 away games and that's reasoned by their dependence on their home crowd because they have to make up for their bad technical ability with passion. This lineup is possible:

Berbig - Schnetzler, Mauersberger, Stang, Krük - Heidrich, Hansen - Siegert, Tyrala, Pauli - Kastrati

I am actually pretty sure that Osnabrück will not have a cat in hell's chance in Paderborn. Another big difference between Paderborn and Osnabrück is that Paderborn has one of the best defences of the league (that might sound a bit strange but it is true due to their defensively-minded manager Schubert) while Osnabrück's defence is very poor and known for individual mistakes. I will take the -0.25 because a draw would be okay for Paderborn too but their manager assured that they will go for the home win in this prestige match. An away victory is a physical impossibility if we consider how poor Osnabrück's team is.

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Germany Bundesliga 2 - 29.04.2011: Alemannia Aachen - Rot-Weiss Oberhausen

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/ger...n-359460/#ah;2

Alemannia Aachen (-0.75)
Odds: 1.99 (188bet)
Stake: 5/10

Alemannia Aachen achieved a suprising victory in Augsburg last week because they showed a tactically very strong approach. That actually was quite ironic because Aachen's biggest problem in this season had been their bad tactical behaviour. They actually are a pretty strong football team with one of the best offensives of the league - Stieber is one of the biggest talents I've ever seen and I am sure that he will play Champions League sooner or later, Auer is one of the best goalgetters and altogether their whole midfield is very strong. If they are allowed to make the running at home, they are highly dangerous. Motivation will not be a problem for them, they are the youngest team of the league and they are always totally motivated in front of their fantastic home crowd - sometimes even too keen to do well as for instance at home against Aue two weeks ago when they were the clearly better team but when they suddenly conceded 4 goals in 6 minutes because they forgot to defend.But if you want to get something from Aachen, you have to take advantage of their weak point: their horrible defence. Strong teams like Hertha, Bochum or Augsburg made short shrift of Aachen's defence and they clearly won in Aachen. But Oberhausen is actually the most innocuous of the league. Even bottom-placed club Bielefeld is much more dangerous in the offensive. Unfortunately Oberhausen's best striker Terranova (last week he scored twice) is out due to suspension, furthermore the strikers Lamidi and Luz are both out due to injury. Lamidi is a striker with great potential but he lately was totally out of form, Luz has been out for a very long time but he would actually be their best striker. Therefore, their offensive is incredible bad. Schönfeld and König are expected to start. König is not that bad but he recently has been out of form and has been overshadowed by Terranova (who is out for today). Schönfeld is probably the worst striker on this planet. He is a striker but he scored not a single time in 42 2. Bundesliga games. I have often seen him playing and it is a miracle that he makes a living of playing football. We should nevertheless consider that Oberhausen won again at last against Karlsruher last weekend. Their 2:1 victory was undeserved and advantaged by Karlsruher's incredible conversion of chances but self-assurance should be back on their side. They urgently need to collect some points to avoid relegation but in fact they are just too poor. They definitely are the worst team of the league together with bottom-placed club Bielefeld. They struggle, they play with passion but they are an incredible bad football team. Lineups:

Alemannia Aachen: Hohs - Casper, Stehle, Olajengbesi, Achenbach - Höger - Kratz, Uludag, Radjabali-Fardi - Auer, Stieber

Oberhausen: Pirson - D. Pappas, Gordon, Klinger, Embers - T. Kruse - Petersch, Kaya, Schmidtgal - Schönfeld, König

So let's sum up. Aachen and Oberhausen are big opposites. Aachen is actually one of the best football teams in this league but their poor defence cost them several points in this season. Therefore it is always dangerous to bet on them but Oberhausen's team is just too poor to take advantage of Aachen's weak defence. Players like Schönfeld or König are opportunity killers, Schmidtgal and Kaya are good football players but that's all in all not enough to get something away from home. Oberhausen's strategy on the road is always the same one: their only aim is to keep their sheet clean. But Aachen's offensive power is too massive, Oberhausen's defence is too error-prone to keep their sheet clean and on the other hand their offensive is just too poor to score. To make a long story short, they patently are a very bad football team. Aachen plays for nothing but they play for nothing for long periods of the season. Aachen will be fully-motivated at home anyway, that's out of the question. Their young, technical high skilled team will be able to perform without any pressure while Oberhausen's players are going to struggle for existence. And in fact, Aachen is the much, much, much better football team and pretty strong at home. I think that we will see a clear victory here, even a thrashing would not really suprise me.

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Germany Bundesliga 2 - 30.04.2011: FC Ingolstadt - Erzgebirge Aue

Ingolstadt - Erzgebirge Aue Betting Odds, Soccer - 2. Bundesliga

FC Ingolstadt (-0.25)
Odds: 1.88 (5dimes), 1.85 (PinnacleSports)
Stake: 5/10

Both teams play for nothing, Ingolstadt finally achieved the staying-up while Aue still has a 0,01% chance of being promoted but actually this train has left the station. Ingolstadt was trailed in the table until Winter but they bought many new quality players and they accomplished an amazing run. They are unbeaten since 8 games, won 5 of them and that is not by chance. The quality in this team is massive, they do not play like a relegation battler but rather like a promotion canidate. The new players just have to take the consequences of the poor first half of the season. So both teams actually has nothing to play for but at least Ingolstadt actually should not really have problems with motivation because they play in front of their own home crowd. But I recently observed both teams most intensive and the gaps between them are massive although the table tells another story. I am not an Ingolstadt admirer but they patently play fine football, great short passing play, very strong wing play through their winter signing Caiuby and they have the best converter of the league namely Stefan Leitl. Their defence is very compact although backup Karl will not be available due to injury but the squad is wide enough to make up for one missing. Aue lately played horrible football - (well, lately is the wrong word, they actually play horrible football for long periods of the season) - and the atmosphere seems to be gutted as well. The season was great for them but Aue is patently not a good football team. Their formula for success in 2010/2011 was their unique home play. First of all, you have to know that the pitch in Aue's stadium is not a lawn but rather a potato field. Technical skilled teams were not able to display their football on this pitch. Aue played with a great running ability at home and they always won 1:0 through last minute goals. On the road, Aue played like a relegation battler. They were sometimes able to win very lucky (especially in the beginning of the season), but against strong football teams, they were not able to have a cat in hell's chance. Their strategy in away games is very dumb: playing very defensively-minded (but Aue's defence is more prone against fast attacks than most people think, especially through the wings and Ingolstadt has very strong wingers) and many long, long balls. A classic example was their display in Aachen two weeks ago. They showed an unadventurous performance, only defending and many long balls. Well, you may not say that they won 5:1 in Aachen but the result had nothing to do with the course of the game. Aachen was dominating clearly, Aue had big problems against Aachen's play but Aachen's funny defence conceded 4 goals in 5 minutes (nobody understood why). In fact, their display in Aachen proved again how weak Aue is on the road. If we disregard Aachen's 5 horror minutes, Aue showed such a boring and unandventurous performance back then. Their style of playing only works at home on their potato field but not on the road against teams with good playing abilities.

And Ingolstadt is a very strong team with a great technical ability. Their great form was not by chance, they simply are a very strong football team. Aue is the exact opposite, they will try to get something from Ingolstadt but motivation will not be big enough. Their destructive anti-football will not work in Ingolstadt because we will see an open clash between two teams with nothing to play for. And in an open clash, Ingolstadt will have clearly advantages (especially at home). And atmosphere in Aue is not good, they have a few internal problems. Players are unsatisfied because they do not have contracts for the new season yet, they have license problems for the next season and the derby defeat against Cottbus at home last week was a big shock for them. By the way, one curious thing: 3rd ranked team Bochum was a +0.25 underdog in Ingolstadt, too some weeks ago .. well, Ingolstadt still had something to play for back then but motivation should be still big enough in front of their home crowd because Ingolstadt is on fire and Aue is not nearly as good as Bochum. Among these cirumstances, I do not expect Aue to get anything from Ingolstadt. Statistics are some misleading here, Ingolstadt is the clearly better football team and on fire.

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Germany Bundesliga 2 - 02.05.2011: Energie Cottbus - Augsburg

Energie Cottbus - Augsburg Betting Odds, Soccer - 2. Bundesliga

Energie Cottbus (+0.25)
Odds: 1.88 (bet365), 1.78 (Asians)
Stake: 5/10

When the price on the hosts was still +0 @1.90, I already thought about taking them but meanwhile it is a clear value bet, we may not ignore anymore. Even Augsburg's manager (and their fans as well) said that he would be satisfied with a draw in Cottbus. In fact, Cottbus is the better football team with more firepower but the difference between them is that Augsburg has been much more constant.

Cottbus still has a mathematically chance of achieving the playoff rank - nevertheless, that is more than improbably but nevertheless I expect them to be motivated enough tonight. Among normal circumstances, the line on the home side would be -0.25 here but the market expects them to be unmotivated. But I absolutely do not think so. First of all, their manager Pele Wollitz would not allow that. He is the most emotional coach in Germany and he is great in motivating his players. Secondly, they still want to overtake their local rival Erzgebirge Aue in the table to be the best team from East Germany in this season and Cottbus has never played badly at home. Their away performances have cost them the points in this season. It has been absolutely inexplicable why they always performed that unmotivated on the road. They gave away so many points against poor teams from the bottom of the table because they performed too arrogant away from home. But in front of their own fans, they actually showed no single bad performance. And it often seems that this strong team is only able to use their potential against strong teams. Cottbus showed amazing displays against strong teams like Hertha Berlin or VfL Bochum. Cottbus is the only team in this league which was able to dominate away against championship leader Hertha Berlin and that is only due to their great technical potential. They are full-strength tonight and it is their last home performance under flood light in this season. Monday night games are always a special thing and I really do not expect any motivation problems. We should also consider that Cottbus recently played very well. Manager Wollitz will not rest regular players because he confirmed in the press conference that his team will take this game absolutely serious. Their great striker Jula is probably going to give his comeback, that would be fantastic. The fans hate him since he has announced his transfer to rival Duisburg but he is and will remain a great striker and he is very important because he creates chances for their converter Petersen:

Kirschbaum - Bittroff, Hünemeier, Brzenska, Ziebig - Sörensen, Kurth, Kruska, Adlung - Petersen, Jula

Augsburg recently played much too nervous. They know that they have a historical chance in this year but the way how they lately performed was too bad. Therfore, I will go against them the third time in a row. Their style of playing away from home is like a bad copy of the "Furth-style": very deep defending and trying to hit the opponents on the break. Their problem is that they play much too defensively-minded and too inactive. And that will be dangerous against Cottbus. Cottbus is maybe the team with the best technical ability in this league and with most firepower in the offensive. Cottbus has the potential to create so many goal chances and they are great in making the running at home. But Cottbus' defence is very weak and you have to exploit that if you play against them. But Augsburg plays too inactive in away games, much too observant .. and this strategy will definitely not work in Cottbus! Augsburg will be very nervous today, last weekend they were clear favourites at home against Aachen but they suprisingly lost and they threw away their matchball. Today, I read an interview with their manager Luhukay and he confirmed that his team is nervous at the moment. Augsburg will be without regular Werner today. This lineup is expected:

Jentzsch - Verhaegh, Möhrle, Sankoh, Bellinghausen - Sinkiewicz, Callsen-Bracker - Baier, Traore - Thurk, Rafael

Considering all factors, Cottbus can not be the underdog. Among normal circumstances, the odds on the home team would be around -0.25 @2.00 but the market expects them to be unmotivated. Of course there are several teams which are unmotivated if they have nothing to play for but Cottbus is not such a team. Lately, when they were without pressure, they even performed much better than before (Cottbus won 2 times consecutively). Augsburg has big pressure and a bad style in away games. The best examples was their performance in Karlsruhe. They had one shot on target in 90 minutes and they won 1:0. But Karlsruhe is a relegation battler and much poorer than Cottbus. Such a strategy may work in Karlsruhe but not in Cottbus. Cottbus will punish their inactive style of playing football and I doubt that Augsburg will be able to make the running in Cottbus because their midfield is simply too poor. Hence, Cottbus can not be the underdog and due to the fact that they always perform much stronger against top teams, I even expect them to win tonight. The +0.25 handicap is a great gift.