Germany, 21 Apr - 25 Apr

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Germany Bundesliga 2 - 21.04.2011: Paderborn - Bochum

Paderborn - Bochum Betting Odds, Soccer - 2. Bundesliga

SC Paderborn 07 (+0.25)
Odds: 2.06 (StanJames), 1.88 (SBOBET)
Stake: 5/10

I do not see Bochum being the favourite in Paderborn, now less than ever because Bochum failed totally in Ingolstadt last week. An interesting thing is that Bochum was a +0.25 underdog in Ingolstadt, they lost 3:0 there and now they should immediately be a -0.25 favourite in Paderborn? That does not make any sense in my eyes, considering that Paderborn is at least as strong as Ingolstadt.

Paderborn is a hard nut to crack, especially at home. Paderborn's current form seems to be quite bad, being without a victory since February 2011 but their recent performances were quite convincing at all. Paderborn still needs to collect some points to avoid the relegation. Especially today, a positive result would be very important because Paderborn has to play vs. Osnabrück next week and nobody wants a final against their local rival next week. Lately, Paderborn could improve a lot. About two months ago, Paderborn had a few very bad results. They collapsed at home vs. Cottbus (0:5) and Aachen (1:3) but back then 7-8 essential regulars were out due to injury. Paderborn has a small squad, therefore they just were not able to make up for these missings but meanwhile all these regulars are already back. Meanwhile, they improved a lot. They tied twice at home vs. Frankfurt (2:2) and Ingolstadt (1:1) but in both games, they were the (clearly) better team. Against Frankfurt, they were 2:0 in front but they wasted too many golden chances, therefore they conceded the level in the stoppage time. Against Ingolstadt, Paderborn was disadvantaged by the referee very much but they actually deserved to win this game back then. But Ingolstadt is pretty strong in these days, hence only playing 1:1 against them is not a disgrace. Paderborn lately lost two times away from home when they were clear underdogs but they showed two very pleasing performances. Last week in Furth and even in Berlin, they were able to create several good goal chances. They were just a bit unlucky but their displays were more than okay. To cut a long story into short, Paderborn is much better than the results show at the moment. Palionios and Manno will be both out but Wachsmuth and Brandy are fine replaces. Especially Brandy is actually Paderborn's best counter attacker and I am glad to see him being back after his suspension. He will be very helpful today. Possible lineup:

Masuch - Wemmer, Mohr, Gonther, Raitala - Wachsmuth, Krösche - Alushi, Brückner - Kapllani, Brandy

Bochum recently struggled a lot. Bochum achieved a terrific streak with 15 unbeaten games consecutively but lately they lost two times. It was not suprising at all that their streak has found an end because their results were much better than their performances. Several times, Bochum won luckily by one goal. Their defence hardly allowed any goal chances and they were always able to score at least one time. But recently they were just not able anymore to create opportunities. One main reason could have been the missing of key player Azouagh who sustained an injury in the home clash against Hertha Berlin. He was the player who was responsible for the creative moments. His missing hurts a lot, when he was substituted against Hertha due to his injury, Bochum's offensive play did not work anymore. In Ingolstadt it was actually the same problem. Bochum's best striker Jong Tae-Se is still out, too. Another big problem could be the missing of their most important defender, Antar Yahia. He will not be able due to suspension. Bochum has no equal replacements in the defence, therefore reserve player Acquistapace is probably going to make his debut in 2. Bundesliga. Possible lineup:

Luthe - Kopplin, Maltritz, Acquistapace, Ostrzolek - Vogt, Johansson, Dabrowski - Federico, Ümit Korkmaz - Aydin

The main problem for Bochum will be that they will not be able to create enough goal chances. Paderborn is known as being one of the best defending teams of the league, their coach Schubert is the "Mourinho of 2. Bundesliga". Paderborn's tactical behaviour is excellent and Schubert announced that his team is going to play defensively-minded. Bochum has 6 defensively-minded players in their lineup (Maltritz, Acquistapace, Ostrzolek, Vogt, Dabrowski, Johansson) who are only responsible for defending. Kopplin is rather offensively-minded but his crosses lately were just too bad. Federico is much too inconstant and lazy on the pitch, Aydin is just a converter but he actually does not create goal chances. Korkmaz is the only hope for Bochum. Paderborn has an excellent counter ability, players like Brandy and Brückner are very well-suited for games like this one. Bochum is under pressure, they lately admitted complete failure in Ingolstadt when they lost 3:0 and they need to get a victory from Paderborn but the lineup is simply not strong enough. Paderborn is known as a pretty strong home side, their defence is excellent and pretty tough to crack, Paderborn lately improved a lot and the pressure on Bochum's side is massive. Due to the good defence behaviour of both teams, I expect a very close game. Bochum's team is definitely not strong enough to be such a favourite in Paderborn, I rather see Paderborn winning this one. It will be a very low-scoring game too, therefore a short bet on under might makes sense as well. But my main bet will be Paderborn +0.25 because I just do not see them losing this pretty important clash against Bochum.

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Germany Bundesliga 2 - 21.04.2011: VfL Osnabrück - FSV Frankfurt

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/ger...t-359452/#ah;2

FSV Frankfurt (+0.25)
Odds: 2.20 (188BET)
Stake: 4/10

Osnabrück can not be such a strong favourite in their current situation, even less if they host against strong Frankfurt. Osnabrück still has to collect many points to avoid relegation and tonight seems to be the easiest task on paper. Therefore pressure on Osnabrück is massive but I do not see enough quality in their team to be succesful against Frankfurt.

Osnabrück has a lot of players out for tonight, some ones due to suspension, some other ones due to injury. Discipline seems to be a big problem in the team. Osnabrück's playmaker Lindemann and regular defender Schöneberg have been fired on Tuesday because both fronted up drunken to the training. Defence regular Tauer is still suspended, too, but he will maybe sit on the bench because too many players are out. Midfield regular Andersen will be out due to injury, and Osnabrück's best player and best striker Kastrati is injured as well. There is still a little chance that Kastrati will play but it is quite improbably. Kastrati is really by far Osnabrück's best football player. All other strikers from Osnabrück' will not be available due to injury/suspension as well (Bencik, Kotuljac, Diabang). I expect Adler to play instead of them but he is totally out of form and actually rather a winger than a striker. Therefore Osnabrück's lineup still looks some poorer than in the past weeks:

Berbig - Schnetzler, Stang, Mauersberger, Krük - Engel, Heidrich - Siegert, Tyrala, Schmidt - Adler

Due to all these missing, the team has a poor quality. Last week, they were totally chanceless in Hertha (4:0 lost) but that was of course not a suprise. Much more critical was the last home display against bottom-placed club Bielefeld (0:0). Osnabrück's poor offensive was patently unable to create any goal chances against the by poorest defending team of the league. Only Kastrati was dangerous in some situations but how I already mentioned above, he probably will not be available for tonight. Lindemann's missing is very bad for them too, because he is their playmaker and responsible for the creating of goal chances. Osnabrück's offensive just lacks firepower and actually a strong offensive is necessary to exploit Frankfurt's weakest point: their defence.

Frankfurt still needs to collect one point to avoid relegation mathematically. The 2:1 home victory against 1860 last week was a big relief and finally luck was back on their side. A victory after such a long bad streak may work miracles. Frankfurt has no more pressure now. But the important question for me was of course if I expect Frankfurt to be motivated enough. And yes, I think so. Frankfurt's recent away displays were throughout pretty strong. They totally dominated in Union Berlin (lost 2:0, however), they were better in Cottbus (lost 2:1) and Aachen (2:1) but they were unlucky in all these matches. Frankfurt is really much stronger on the road although result do not prove that so far. But they lately showed some excellent performances on the road because they were able to use their counter ability there. Osnabrück will give them a lot of space because Osnabrück has to win, Frankfurt's offensive definitely has the quality to use this space. Frankfurt's offensive just looks much moire dangerous. N'Diaye scored two times against 1860 last week and seems to be back in form and Mölders already scored 15 goals in this season. However, Frankfurt has two regulars out for tonight: Gjasula and Wunderlich. Gjasula's missing is rather a positive aspect than a negative one because Gjasula recently performed totally arrogant. Wunderlich is Frankfurt's important playmaker but N'Diaye is a well replace. But even without Wunderlich, the quality in the team is still big enough not to be the underdog in Osnabrück. Possible lineup:

Langer - C. Müller, Schlicke, Gledson, Dahlén - Cinaz, Heitmeier - Sv. Müller, Fillinger - N'Diaye, Mölders

There are mainly two possiblities: the first one is that Frankfurt will be fully motivated, then they have the quality to smash Osnabrück clearly. Maybe Osnabrück will tense up due to the massive pressure and Frankfurt will exploit that. The second possibiltiy is that Frankfurt will settle back after having accomplished the staying up last week. But even if Frankfurt will only invest 70-80% (but I do not think so), they are still strong enough to get something from Osnabrück. Frankfurt is patently the much, much stronger team, thus they can never be such a underdog in this situation.

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Germany Bundesliga 2 - 23.04.2011: Rot-Weiss Oberhausen - Karlsruher SC[/B]

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/ger...r-359449/#ah;2

Karlsruher SC (+0)
Odds: 1.83 (188BET)
Stake: 5/10

At midday today, RWO and Karlsruher will play against each other. For both teams this game is maybe the most important one of the whole season. RWO will have very difficult opponents within the next few weeks, therefore today is their last chance to stay in this league. I am pretty sure that a draw or a defeat today would mean the relegation for them because they will not be able to win against Aachen, Furth or Cottbus during the next weeks. The pressure on the team is massive, last week they actually squandered their last chance of staying in the league when they conceded the level in the 93th minute away against bottom-placed Arminia Bielefeld. Their goalkeeper Sören Pirson did a horrible mistake when the stoppage time was actually gone and Bielefeld's striker scored. The fans and the players were devastated and goalkeeper Pirson knows that he failed. As it is, the atmosphere in Oberhausen is absolutely in panic. RWO had a great start into this season but they managed it only to win 2 of the last 24 games. The two victories were against bottom-placed club Bielefeld in November 2010 and against mediocre Paderborn in February 2011 but Paderborn had many injured players back then. However, it is just a fact that Oberhausen's team has not enough quality for this league. I would even go so far as to say that Bielefeld (bottom-placed club) has even significantly more quality. If I see RWO's team playing football, I sometimes ask myself how this guys became professional footballers. Especially RWO's defence is unqualified for the second league. The atmosphere in the club is catastrophal as well. RWO did a big mistake some months ago when they fired their manager and club legend Hans Günther Bruns, with their new coach Theo Schneider they did not win any single game so far. But to cut a long story into short, the team patently has not enough quality to play 2. Bundesliga. The atmosphere is devastated, the fans are absolutely pessimistic and the players seem to have a very weak mindset. They know that they have to win, if not, they will lose their jobs. Possible lineup:

Pirson - Pappas, Schlieter, Klinger, Embers - Gordon - Petersch, Kaya, Schmidtgal, Terranova - König

RWO is furthermore the team with the by far poorest technical ability. They do not have the playing ability to make the running at home. Moreover it sometimes seems that this team plays without strategy. Their new coach Schneider seems to be a very bad one, since he is coach in Oberhausen (February 2011), they play totally disorganized. The players do not bear the hallmarks of Schneider and they just seem to have a very bad self-reliance. However that be, the atmosphere in Oberhausen is very tensed because every player knows that the clash vs. Karlsruher will be their last chance to keep their little chance of staying in the league. And I just do not see them being able to beat Karlsruher in this situation.

It is not only that Karlsruher is the much better football team, Karlsruher has less pressure, the managerial change was a succes (quite contrary to RWO) and the team has a much better defence. Well, I have to admit that Karlsruher conceded the most goals in this league but the statistic is slightly misleading. Among their last managers, Karlsruher played haphazardly but since Rainer Scharinger took on the job, the team plays much more disciplined. Karlsruher really improved a lot recently and they are definitely the team to bet on in the next few weeks. Two weeks ago, Karlsruher showed a brilliant performance in Aue. They were unlucky and hence they only achieved a 1:1 but their display was fantastic. The new manager relies on younger players like Terrazino, Rupp or Stadler and these guys lately performed fantastic. Especially Terrazino, loan from 1899 Hoffenheim, played brilliant in Aue and against Augsburg on Monday. RWO's defence will not be able to defend against him, I am pretty sure. Karlsruher's team has a great technical ability and it is only the fault of the former managers that Karlsruher still is in relegation danger. They sometimes played without defence, without any strategy and the players complained about the former coaches (Schupp and Rapolder). But since Scharinger took the manager position, Karlsruher improved a lot. The results still tell another story but the way how Karlsruher plays is absolutely fine. As far as I can see, Karlsruher should not worry about the relegation because this team has much more quality than the relegation competitors. Any way, Karlsruher simply has much more quality than RWO. Moreover, they recently played with much more self-reliance since Scharinger is the manager. Their away record is quite poor at first view but at least during the past few weeks/months, their away displays were more than okay. They played very strong in Frankfurt (2:1 won), Bochum (1:1) and Aue (1:1). Well, they collapsed totally in Munich when they lost 5:1 but we should keep in mind that Munich is one class stronger than RWO. But the way how Karlsruher performed lately was quite convincing. It is only a matter of time until they will get better results. Possible lineup:

Robles - M. Zimmermann, Müller, M. Langkamp, Stadler (Schäfer) - Terrazzino, Mutzel, Staffeldt, Buckley - Chrisantus, Iashvili

In this situation, I just can not see Oberhausen being able to win against Karlsruher. The atmosphere in Oberhausen is very bad, the team has the poorest quality of the league (together with Arminia Bielefeld) and the team is under incredible pressure. Karlsruher is still in relegation danger too, but they way how they performed lately was very good. Actually this team should not be in relegation danger with this quality, it is only the fault of the former managers. Karlsruher's lineup is much better meanwhile because their new manager Scharinger uses much more young players. Among these circumstances, Oberhausen will not be able to win. If we just compare the recent performances of both teams, Karlsruher is nearly one class stronger. And due to the poor atmosphere, the home advantage in Oberhausen is not big enough to justify such odds. Karlsruher will be the favourite here, Oberhausen is just too poor and will not be able to win. The poor away stats and big number of conceded goals from Karlsruher among their former managers is just too misleading for the Asian market, nobody realized that the team lately improved a lot.

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Germany Bundesliga 2 - 23.04.2011: TSV 1860 Munchen - Greuther Furth

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/ger...h-359450/#ah;2

Greuther Furth (+0)
Odds: 1.83 (PinnacleSports)
Stake: 5/10

And every second week again, I bet on Greuther Furth when they play on the road. Betting on them in away games was a cash cow for me in this and the last season because their strategy on the road is just perfect. Greuther Furth's style of playing in away games is simple to descripe: playing with a very compact defence and two backups in the midfield (two "6ers") and trying to hit the home team on the break with their fantastic counter strikers. Greuther Furth's defence is so damn strong, they only conceded 2 goals in their last 8 away games. Their last conceded goal on the road was in January. Moreover, Greuther Furth has the best counter forwards of the league. The young players Felix Klaus, Sercan Sararer and Nicolai Müller are great suited for counter attacks due to their fastness and great dribbling ability. However, the market still did not realize that this team is much, much stronger away than at home. The home advantage in their own stadium is not very big anyway because Furth has hardly any fans but on the road they are all the better. In addition, a victory in Munich would mean to draw level on the playoff spot with Bochum. In this year, Greuther Furth has the historical chance to be promoted (it would be the first promotion in club history) and the young players from Furth fight for this dream. Another positive aspect is that Furth's manager Mike Büskens renewed his contract. I think that Büskens is one of the best managers in Germany and most people thought that he would leave Furth in summer but suprisingly he signed a new contract. Furth is going to start with this lineup:

Walke - Nehrig, Kleine, Mavraj, Prib - Fürstner, Pekovic - Klaus, Haas (Kaplan) - Sararer, Müller

1860 has nothing to play for because they are in mid-table obscurity but I have to admit that they still play with passion. Nevertheless I think that Furth's force of will will be stronger because Furth patently has much more to play for. We should also consider that 1860 is a team with a very small home advantage. 1860 plays in Bayern Munich's stadium and the atmosphere is a little bit dead due to the small percentage of seats sold. 1860's home and away records are pretty even anyway. A problem for 1860 could be their prone defence. Their defence is not bad, so please do not take me wrong, but their defence is quite prone against fast strikers. Their tall (and therefore slow) central defenders Buck and Aygün are pretty strong in the air but they will have problems with defending against the small and fast strikers from Furth. Moreover, the defence wing positions from 1860 are not ideal. Ignjovski is actually rather a midfielder and Rukavina is much too offensively-minded and he is known for disregarding the defence. Considering that Furth's wings are pretty strong, that could be a very dangerous factor for 1860. 1860's possible lineup:

Kiraly - Rukavina, Aygün, Buck, Ignjovski - Bülow, D. Stahl - Aigner, D. Halfar - Volland, Lauth

Both teams have high qualities but I see clear advantages on Furth's side. It is a very important fact that 1860 is not really strong at home whilst Furth is better away than at home. Hence, the home factor is not that big here how odds do suggest. We should also consider that 1860's defence will get serious problems against Furth's fast counter attackers how I already explained above. And another important fact for my bet is that 1860 plays for nothing whilst Furth has a historical chance. In my opinion, Furth will be the clear favourite here. It is quite funny to see how the Asian market still underrates them totally in away games but I know that they are at least equal strong on the road. I am glad to get a DNB line on Furth here.