Spain 9-10 April

[dannyg]

Date: 9 April 2011
League: Spanish La Liga
Team: Mallorca vs Sevilla
Time: 04:00 (UTC +8)
1X2 Odd: 2.53 3.19 2.67
Asian Handicap Odd: 1.87 0 : 0 2.00
Over/Under Odd: 2.05 : 2.5 :1.75
Team Form: Sevilla is better
Head-Head: Sevilla is full advantage
Ranking: Mallorca is 10, Sevilla is 6, different 7 points
Home-Away-Form: Mallorca is a poor form at home game recent, and Sevilla is also a normal form at away games.
Analysis Summary:
1X2 bookmakers are increasing home odd, and Asian handicap is same level with middle water odd level as compares with low water odd level in early odds. The odd action is lack of confident to home team. Mallorca is a stronger desire in this game since they are hope to qualify Europa next season, and bookmakers are using Sevilla's history achievement with current odd, and the market is also more trends to Sevilla. Therefore, Mallorca is high chance to score some points tonight.
Soccer Prediction: Mallorca (0)

[rcgills]

Girona to score 2 or more v Las Palmas @ 2.2 4pts
Score 3 or more @ 5 2pts
Score 4 or more @ 13 1pt
All from Bet365

Completely inexplicable odds here in my opinion. I can only think that the bookies are basing this in part on the recent form of the two sides. It's true that Girona have taken just 4pts from their last 5 games, while Las Palmas have won 4 in a row. However, only two of those 5 for Girona were at home, in which they beat struggling Albacete 3-0 and lost 1-0 to 2nd placed Betis. That defeat was only their second home defeat of the season, though, and the only one of their last 6 homes that they've failed to win.

As for Las Palmas, yes they've won their last 4, but three of them were at home, plus an away win at Albacete. However, that was only their 2nd away win of the season, and they've lost 9 of their last 13 aways.

In those 13 away games, Las Palmas have conceded 38 goals, so an average of nearly 3 a game. Bear in mind that in that run, they conceded just 1 goal in 3 games against Albacete, Nastic and Tenerife (all in the bottom 5) and it looks even worse for them. They've conceded 5 goals 3 times (at Granada, Alcorcon and Cartagena), 4 goals on a further 3 occasions (Salamanca, Numancia and Betis), and 3 goals on a further 2 occasions (Valladolid, Ponferradina).

Overall, they've conceded 3 or more in half of their away games (8 of 16), and 4 or more in 6 of those 16 games, yet they're priced at 4/1 and 12/1 to concede 3 and 4 respectively

Girona are also pretty consistent scorers at home. They've scored 29 in 15 homes overall, and tend to score pretty well against the struggling sides - they've played all the bottom 5 (the only 5 sides below Las Palmas), scoring 1 against Salamanca, 2 against Nastic, 3 against Albacete and Ponferradina, and 4 against Tenerife.

Overall, in 15 home games, they've scored 2 or more in 10 of them, including 4 games in which they've scored 3, and one game where they scored 4.

Nothing major in the Girona team news to explain the odds.

I'd be very surprised if Girona don't manage at least 2 here (which would be enough for a small profit), and pretty disappointed if the 3+ bet doesn't come in.