Germany, 08 Apr - 11 Apr

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Hi,


Duisburg - Alemannia Aachen

Alemannia Aachen (+0.25)
Odds: 1.93 (SBOBET)
Stake: 5/10

Goal lines: Not possible to predict here. If Duisburg gonna take part in this game, a high scoring game (2:2 / 2:3) is possible. But a boring 0:0/0:1 sth like that is possible, too.

Both teams have nothing to play for - when a journalist asked Duisburg's player Goran Sukalo how they want to motivate themselves for the next games, Sukalo answered that the premiums are their only incentives.

So why do I come to the outcome that a bet on Aachen is the right choice for tonight? Because I recently saw both teams playing. Duisburg played pathetic, without any motivation and a negative body language even at home. Obviously all players can't resist having their thoughts at the "DFB Pokal" final against Schalke in May. Since Duisburg achieved the final, they showed nothing in the league anymore. It began with their home defeat against bottom-placed club Bielefeld (1:2) and it continued with their poor away display in Karlsruhe when they lost 1:3. Then they managed it to beat Dusseldorf - another team playing for nothing - by 1:0. But they were lucky to win, their goalkeeper David Yelldell saved them their ass several times and they can say thanks to Dusseldorf's goalkeeper who was not able to save a shot from 30m distance. Last week, they lost deservedly in Greuther Furth (2:1) and they showed nothing again.

Duisburg's strong run in 2010 had been suprisingly anyway. Actually they are a bad football team. How I already mentioned a few times, they have the worst pass completion rate of the league. Well, I have to add that this bad rate depends on their strategy. Their strategy is fitted to their 202cm tall striker Stefan Maierhofer. A lot of long balls to him, running a lot to get many free-kicks and corners. But for the game vs. Aachen, he is out due to injury for the first time in this season. Hard to believe that they will be able to succesful without him. Aachen's coach Hyballa mentioned in the press conference that Maierhofer is a key player for Duisburg and their whole system depends on him and he was right with saying that.

Duisburg's big problem is their very small squad. They have 12-13 strong players but apart from these ones, they only have young and less experienced guys. Against Aachen, many vital players won't be available. Their best player Koch is out since February and for the time they have been without him, they performed really bad. Furthermore, key player Maierhofer is out due to injury how I mentioned above. Probably the unexperienced player Exslager will replace him but that is a big weakening because he will of course be unable to accomplish Maierhofer's task in the offensive. And moreover, Veigneau is out due to suspension. He did not miss one minute in this season so far and Duisburg not really has another player on the left wing defender position. I really do not know who will replace him. Probably an unknown, young player. But that might be a very difficult task for him because Aachen is known for having great wing offensive players.

Aachen recently rewarded themselves for strong performances - they won in Osnabruck (3:1) and beat 1860 at home (2:1). It lately seemed that their defence finally improved. Their offensive has never been the problem. However, Aachen will be without their vital player Höger who is out due to suspension but in stark contrast to Duisburg, Aachen has enough equal options on the bench like Kevin Kratz, Bilal Cubukcu, etc, therefore it is not a problem to make up for one missing.

But an important aspect is just that they never had promotion ambitions. Aachen plays for noting since January/February, they have of course much more potential but their defence costed them too many points. On the other hand, Duisburg has frustrated ambitions. They played a strong first half of the season but meanwhile the atmosphere turned from great into bad. The players lack passion in these days and weeks. And of course no player wants to sustain an injury at the moment. They saw how their team mate Maierhofer sustained a broken leg in the unimportant away game in Furth, therefore Maierhofer will miss the DFB Pokal final against Schalke in May. No one wants to sustain an injury at the moment because they all know that the final in May will maybe be the greatest game of their carriers.

Duisburg is definitely the team to bet against in these days. At the moment, they play like a relegation spot canidate. Without passion, without playing ability and for today they are even so many vital players out. Aachen is the much better team, motivation rather is on Aachen's side and Duisburg's shape is horrible. Hence, a clear bet on Aachen and against Duisburg.

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FC Augsburg - Greuther Furth

Greuther Furth (+0.25)
Odds: 2.23 (SBOBET)
Stake: 4/10

Goal lines: It definitely will be a low scoring match. Furth's tactical behaviour is excellent. They will hardly allow any goal chances for Augsburg. I think that only a low scoring game is possible here. Both teams are tactically too strong to concede more than 1 or 2 goals. Therefore also a short try on (does not count to statistic, however):

Under 2.25
Odds: 2.09 (IBCBET)
Stake: 1/10



Greuther Furth on the road has been my 'cash cow' in this season so far because they are the only team of the league which performs better away than at home due to their strong defence & their fantastic counter ability.

Odds on Furth for tonight are definitely too high. I know both teams very well and Augsburg's biggest weak point during the past weeks and months was their disability to break through deep defences. There are several examples, but the perfect example was their 0:0 at home against Duisburg. Duisburg's away strategy is similar to Furth's strategy with the difference that Duisburg is unable to counterattack. However, Augsburg was not able to create any decent goal chance in this game. They just did not know how to break through Duisburg's deep defence. The reason for this disability is their midfield. Their midfield lacks creativity, especially the injury of Moritz Leitner hurts. Players like Axel Bellinghausen and Tobias Werner have a big lack of creativity, a lack of technical ability. Therefore it is always difficult for them to create enough goal chances at home.

Other examples for this weak point wastheir home display against Aue (2:1). They were unable to create any goalscoring chance until the 60th minute. Teams like Cottbus scored 6 times vs. the pathetic away team Aue but Augsburg was lucky only to be 0:1 behind until the equalize. Due to a solo run and shot and a set piece they were able to win 2:1, however.

But I know that a team like Augsburg is always able to score out of blue air. Thus I would not take a +0.5 on a team whose only aim would be to get a 0:0 from Augsburg. Nevertheless, everybody knows that Furth has the best counter ability of the league. I even believe that Furth will be more dangerous through their fast breaks than Augsburg with their attempts of making the running.

This line on Furth is too huge, they still need to collect one point at least to stay near the promotion ranks. Furthermore, both teams definitely are equal. The only reason why Augsburg collected more points so far is their bigger experience. But Furth will get something from Augsburg, I am pretty sure. In my opinion they are and will remain the best away team from the league, they did not concede any goal on the road since January (four games in a row with a clean sheet on the road)!

Due to Augsburg's disability of making the running, Augsburg will hardly get any chances to score and Furth will be more dangerous through their fast breaks. These pretty huge odds are too great to miss them out. I still don't understand for which reason the pathetic away team Duisburg got a +0.25 a few months ago and wherefore Furth should be a clearer utsider now? And I think that Augsburg would be satisfied with a draw, too, because they know that promotion competitor Bochum will lose points on Monday when they will face championship leader Berlin. Nevertheless I know that Furth will aim for three points. One point would be barely enough to keep body and soul together.

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VfL Osnabruck - Arminia Bielefeld

I thought about betting on Osnabruck here but it would be non-sense because it is far away from being a value bet. Bielefeld is not that bad, they recently improved a lot and it could be a major advantage for them not to have pressure tonight. Although they are already relegated, they still play with passion. Osnabrück is strong at home under flood light but they simply are not a strong team. Line / odds are correct here, therefore no value on either side. Goal line odds are correct, too. I think we will see a 2:1 or 2:2.

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Hi,

Huge drop, original taken SBOBET @2.03 in the wee hours. Not sure if there's still enough value to risk a bet on them. Rather not to be honest.

Germany Bundesliga 2 - 09.04.2011: TSV 1860 Munchen - Energie Cottbus

TSV 1860 Munchen (-0.25)
Odds: 2.00 (StanJames , joke limits)
Stake: 5/10

or

TSV 1860 Munchen (-0.25)
Odds: 1.84 (PinnacleSports)
Stake: 5/10

Goal lines: Will rather be a high scoring match but the line is 2.75 and therefore correct. No bet.

Maybe it sounds a bit suprising but in my opinion 1860 is one of the best teams of the league at the moment. For many months, they have nothing to play for. Promotion and relegation spots have always been far away for them but they still invest plenty effort.

1860 is really performing very, very strong in these weeks and months. Their defeat last week in Aachen (2:1) was unlucky, they showed a good away match back then. 1860 definitely is one of the best teams of the league with regard to the technical ability. Especially through the wings, 1860 is very dangerous. I would even go so far as to say that 1860 has the best wingers of the league with Halfar and Aigner. Halfar is in brilliant shape at the moment, at home vs. Karlsruher and in Aachen he showed two amazing games. Aigner is a great player and finally back to old form, too. However though, 1860 has one big weak point at home and that's the reason why they are not really a strong home side. 1860 does not have a playmaker - a typical "10er" is missing, someone who creates goal chances, someone who is able to score through an individual action. Therefore their play often lacks vigorous power and they have problems if small & poor teams play very defensively-minded.

But of course we can not expect that from Cottbus. I think Cottbus is the most offensively-minded team on this planet. Their manager Pele Wollitz just does not care for defence behaviour. Cottbus is a team with high potential - they would be definitely able to beat top teams but they are just so fickle and inconstant. Especially on the road, they showed several disastrous performances in this season. They are a team with a big gap between home and away performances. But their main problem in this season was their catastrophal pathetic defence.

Their back four consists of Hünemeier and Brenzska in the central defence and Ziebig & Afryie on the wings. Hünemeier is a great striker, he already scored several times but he is known for doing big mistakes in the defence. Brenzska is more steady but exactly how Hünemeier much too slow. Both will get serious problems against 1860's very fast strikers Volland and Lauth. Hünemeier and Brenzska are both strong in defending set pieces and high balls but 1860 has the fastest strikers of the league with Kevin Volland and Benny Lauth. But the still bigger problem are the wing positions. Afryie is going to play instead of Bittroff (probably) but he actually did not play since September/October 2010. He has a big lack of self confidence and he is the 'problem child' in Cottbus. Ziebig recently did many mistakes, too, and he is a very prone defender. To sum up, Cottbus' defence is known for doing horrible mistakes and their tactical behavioir & positional play is ridicolous.

1860's wingers Halfar and Aigner will be absolutely superior against Cottbus' prone wing defenders. Lauth and Volland (the strikers from 1860) should have clear advantages in duels vs. Brenzska and Hünemeier because both players patently are much faster. Furthermore, Cottbus' coach Wollitz is expected to make a few changes in the lineup. Not ruled out that young players will get a chance today to prove themselves.

1860 simply is much better in form, too. They smashed Karlsruher at home (5:1) three weeks ago and Karlsruher is something like a poor version of Cottbus. A team with big defence problems, too. 1860's performance was so brilliant, they played like a Bundesliga team and it's really hard to believe that they only rank in the midfield of the table. Last week they lost in Aachen but how I already mentioned above they showed a great away display.

As contrasted with 1860, Cottbus is in a horrible shape. In Bochum they lost with misfortune but at home against Ingolstadt, they performed cruel. Players like Jula or Shao who actually have high quality are totally out of form. Jula is Cottbus' key player but since he announced his transfer to rival Duisburg, he is in disfavour with his coach and the fans. Shao - actually one of the best football players of the league - is a joke figure at the moment. I have never seen him playing poorer than in these weeks.

A -0.25 line on 1860 is just a gift in this match. Cottbus will probably do several changes in the lineup, their tactical behvaiour is poor and their defenders are well-known for their slowness. That patently can not work against 1860's very, very fast offensive players. I even read that Cottbus' manager thinks about playing with a back three instead of a back four. That would be a major advantage for 1860.

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Germany Bundesliga 2 - 09.04.2011: RW Oberhausen - Fortuna Düsseldorf

RW Oberhausen (+0.5)
Odds: 1.97 (IBCBET)
Stake: 3/10

Very late bet, therefore no long text but only facts why +0.5 @1.8x is a value bet. One of the craziest moves I've ever seen in my betting carrier.

- Last week, Union Berlin got +0 odds in Oberhausen. They are much stronger than Düsseldorf, especially on the road and they got a +0 line. That just does not make any sense.

- Many vital players are back and the team is much stronger than last week. Defence key players Pappas and Reichert are both back to the lineup, the same is true of their best player Schmidtgal who will has his first game since November 2010.

- Last chance to stay in the league, RWO is known for their great fighting spirit. Düsseldorf are poor travellers (2-2-10). Düsseldorf showed a decent display in the derby match in Duisburg some weeks ago. But they are too inconstant, they started well but their 2nd half was poor. The same was true in Augsburg. They started pretty well but in the 2nd half they collapsed totally and conceded 4 goals in 15 minutes.

- Düsseldorf has really nothing to play for, recently there were several pathetic displays and several average performances.

-> All in all not enough to be a -0.5 favourite in Oberhausen. Much stronger teams had +0 or -0.25 lines. That just does not make sense and it is definitely one of the craziest odds moves I've ever seen in my life. Furthermore, often in Bundesliga2 2011 the teams won on whom odds raised a lot. That's really curious in 2011 and I think that's another unwarranted drop/raise. Düsseldorf just can never be a -0.5 favourite on the road. I think that even is the first time since they play Bundesliga2 that they are a -0.5 favourite away from home.

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Hi,

Erzgebirge Aue - Karlsruher SC

Erzgebirge Aue (-0.25)
Odds: 2.08 (IBCBET)
Stake: 4/10

The massive price on Aue suprised me some and it definitely worths a bet on the home team. To make you clear, how strong Aue is at home and how poor Karlsruhe is on the road, I just want to show you two statistics. Aue won 10 times at home, tied 3 times and lost one time unlucky through a late goal in the stoppage time. They really are a pretty strong home side. Karlsruher's statistic on the road is pretty poor. They only won once against pathetic Frankfurt, tied 4 times and lost 9 times.

Odds on Aue are so huge because the Asian market thinks that Aue will be unmotivated due to the table situation while Karlsruher has to struggle for each single point. But motivation, self-confidence and quality - all these three points are indicative of a home victory.

Last week Aue collapsed in Dusseldorf and lost 3:0. Now, they still have a mathematically chance of achieving the playoff rank but it is quite unrealistic. However, I expect them to be motivated to offset the poor display in Dusseldorf. Two times consecutively, they only tied 0:0 at home vs. strong opponents but both times they play fully motivated.

Aue's biggest strength are their set pieces - I do not know the exact worth but at least 50% of their scored goals at home (rather more) were scored through corners or free kicks. At the same time, that is a big weak point in Karlsruher's play. Karlsruher's tactical behaviour is pretty poor. Bad positional play, bad defence behaviour at corners and a pathetic goalkeeper. I think that each corner/free-kick might be a golden chance for Aue.

However, Aue has three key players out for today. On the one hand, their best player Marc Hensel (DMID), on the other hand the regulars Kevin Schlitte (RWIN) and Pierre le Beau (RDEF). All three guys will be out due to suspension. Replacing Hensel should not be a problem. Between January and February 2011, Hensel had been out for a few games, too, but Hochscheidt covered for him perfectly. Schlitte is definitely replaceable because he not really is a key player. On the right wing, there are several options. Furthermore, he had already been out for more than one month earlier in the season and replacing him had never been a problem. Le Beau will be out on the right wing defence position. Birk is going to replace him and that will definitely be a weakening because le Beau is much better. But defending against poor Karlsruher should not be a problem anyway ..

Manager Rico Schmitt will probably use this lineup:

Männel - Klingbeil, Lachheb, Paulus, Birk - Fa. Müller, Hochscheidt, Curri, Strauß, Kempe - E. Kern

Karlsruher plays a horrible season. Having started with the aim to achieve a safe midfield position at least, they are meanwhile struggling against relegation. The "new-coach-effect" already seems to be dead. The first two games among new manager Rainer Scharinger were pretty strong but since they collapsed against 1860 Munchen (5:1 lost), they could not convince anymore. Last week they were lucky to get one point at least in the stoppage time against poor Osnabruck.

Their defence behaviour is just by far the poorest of the league together with Bielefeld. Karlsruher already conceded 62 goals in 28 games due to their bad defence behaviour. A reason could be that they have a new back four each weekend. Sometimes their central defence consists of the twin brothers Matthias and Sebastian Langkamp, some other time Stefan Müller plays instead of them. Karlsruher has many players out for today, named Kristian Nicht, Gotfried Adoube, Sebastian Langkamp, Thomas Konrad, Serhat Akin, Gaetano Krebs, Lukas Rupp, Anton Cristea, Martin Hudec, Marco Engelhardt and Christian Timm.

Cristea is their most valuable striker and he is out since two weeks due to a crucial rupture. Without him, they had problems with creating goal chances against Osnabruck last week. Rupp, Timm, Akin and Krebs would have been alternatives in the offensive but they are out due to injury. Their lineup:

Robles - M. Zimmermann, St. Müller, M. Langkamp, Stadler - Terrazzino, Mutzel, Staffeldt, Buckley - Chrisantus, Iashvili

Their lineup looks pretty poor to be honest. Stadler and Terrazzino are two players with big potential but they are both very young, unexperienced and therefore inconstant. Müller is one of the poorest defenders of the league, the same is truef of M. Langkamp who is also doubtful for today. Especially the tactival behaviour of them is miserable, they are simply not able to defend against set pieces and that might be fatal against Aue. Chrisantus and Iashvili are both so poor at the moment. The fans rail against them in forums because both players are so much out of form. Chrisantus is maybe the player with the poorest conversion of chances of the whole Bundesliga2, Iahsvili is too old and in a big crisis at the moment. Both players need tons of chances to score but in Aue, they will hardly get any chance. Thus I can't really see Karlsruher scoring in Aue today.

To sum up, too many aspects are indicative of a home win today. Aue is pretty strong at home, while Karlsruher is pathetic on the road. Aue is very strong in the air and through set pieces but that is Karlsruher's biggest weak point. Aue has a lot of self-confidence at home, Karlsruher of course not. And it will be much easier for Aue to make up for the missing of the three key players than for Karlsruher. I am quite sure that Karlsruher's young and unexperienced team will not be able to get anything from Aue.

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SC Paderborn - FC Ingolstadt


I thought about taking Paderborn (+0) when their price was above 1.90 but I did not take because Ingolstadt's form is just too strong. Ingolstadt collected 13 points out of the past 5 games and they do not make any difference with playing at home or on the road. An advantage for Paderborn could be that Ingolstadt would be satisfied with one point but at the moment, they are just stronger and in the better shape and definitely able to win in Paderborn. But of course odds on Ingolstadt are no where near value.

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Union Berlin - FSV Frankfurt

Frankfurt has been a money burning machine for me in the second half of the season so far. They have nothing to play for and their tendency is bad but especially their away displays actually were pretty fine. Several times they lost unlucky through late goals or sth like that. But their away performances even were better than their home performances. Therefore +0.75 is of course interesting here but I am not brave enough to bet against nearly full-strength Union Berlin in their own stadium. But Union Berlin odds are anti-value, don't take them!

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Germany Bundesliga 2 - 11.04.2011: VfL Bochum - Hertha Berlin

VfL Bochum (+0.25)
Odds: 1.77 (SBOBET) or 1.83 (bet365)
Stake: 5/10

&

Under 2.25 goals
Odds: 2.03 (IBCBET)
Stake: 1/10

"Offensive wins games, defence wins championships (or in this case promotion spots)" - some clever person said that many years ago. Bochum's style of defending is patently impressing. Even if they have an off-day, they still allow hardly any goal chances and on the other hand they hardly need any chance to score. Many people say that is luck, but I think that is a quality. Another major advantage for them is that they use the same lineup since many months. The consequence: Meanwhile, they are unbeaten November 2010. Bochum's lineup for tonight:

Luthe - Kopplin, Maltritz, Yahia, Ostrzolek - Vogt, Johansson, Dabrowski - Azaouagh, M. Aydin, Korkmaz

The key players in their system are Kopplin, Azouagh and Korkmaz. These guys apply pressure through the wings - Kopplin is a very offensively-minded player with many crosses in his play, if he pushs up, Vogt provides security for his team. Azouagh and Korkmaz are the technical most skilled players of Bochum's team and are attributed by a strong dribbling ability. Especially Hertha's very poor left wing defender Kobiashvili might get several problems against Bochum's strong right side consisting of Kopplin and Azouagh.

How do I expect Bochum to play tonight? Much the same as always. They will of course try to make the running at home but their main aim will be to defend safely. A major advantage in Bochum's team are the strong ball winning abilities of Maltritz and Yahia. Many games in this season proved that Hertha's offensive players (Ramos, Rukavytsia, Ronny, Raffael, etc) have problems if the opponents defend physical and aggressive.

Another important aspect is that Hertha does not need to win tonight. A draw would be totally satisfying for them. The only important thing tonight for them will be not to lose. Everyone knows that and especially the game in Furth (roughly one month ago) proved that. Back then, they were only focussing on defending. At the end that was their key to success because Furth did not get any space for their counter play and Hertha was ice-cold with using 2 of the very few chances.

But I already said that after game in Furth and I stick to it. They maybe deserved to win on that day but their very passive style of performing in top clashes can't be promising in the end of the day. Maybe the greenhorns from Furth (Furth only has very young players) were so stupid that they walked right into a trap but Bochum is the most experienced side of the league with the most experienced coach Funkel. Funkel is the "Mourinho of 2. Bundesliga" and known for his perfect strategies. Bochum knows that they may not do the same mistake as Furth did. Of course they will not stonewall at home but they will try not to allow any counter space for Berlin. Hertha lineup:

Aerts - Lell, Hubnik, Mijatovic, Kobiashvili - Lustenberger, Niemeyer - Rukavytsia, Ebert - Ramos, Lasogga

To sum up, I expect a boring game. Berlin will try to hit Bochum on the break, Bochum won't allow that but in the end I think that Bochum should have advantages with their home crowd at the back. Moreover, Hertha would be totally satisfied with a draw here. Therefre 0/0 line would be fair here, +0.25 on the home team is suprising and worths a shot with medium stakes.