Spain 2-4 April

[rcgills]

Villarreal DNB v Barcelona @ 3.75 (Bet365) 3pts
Over 6 cards (asian handicap) @ 1.9 (Bet365) 5pts

Barcelona missing a number of first teamers for this one - Xavi, Puyol, Abidal, Maxwell and Pedro, while Messi is struggling with a knock, but expected to play. Barcelona also often suffer from what the Spanish press dub the "FIFA virus", where they tend to struggle in the first game back after international breaks. This season they've lost to Hercules and drawn with Sporting after such breaks (although they also beat Valencia and put 8 past Almeria). Last season they only won 1 of 4 games after a break, and the year before that 2 of 5.

Villarreal are one of the few sides in this division able to regularly stand up against Barcelona, they've won this fixture on 5 of the last 8 years (although they've lost the last two). Only players out are long-term absentees Senna and Angel.

As for the bookings bet, Dani Alves was quoted this week as saying that forcing bookings is a part of the game, and he hopes everyone is available for the Bernabeu. 2 weeks from now, Barcelona play Real Madrid. Next week they play Almeria. Valdes, Messi, Mascherano and Busquets are all one booking away from a ban, and if they get booked this weekend they'd be banned for the Almeria game rather than the Real Madrid one. Whether they'll be that blatant or not I don't know, but in any case of the last 6 meetings between the two sides, 3 cleared this line, and 2 would've been a push. The referee has shown 83 yellows and 5 reds in 16 games this season, so is averaging over 5 yellows a game.

[rcgills]

Also took Sporting +2 (a/h) v Real Madrid @ 1.9 (Bet365) yesterday, although it's since dropped to 1.75. Real Madrid missing 2 key players in Ronaldo and Xabi Alonso, plus the in-form Benzema, and also Marcelo, Kaka and Gago. They've also got their Champions League match against Spurs to be thinking about.

On the face of it, Sporting's away record is a distinctly unimpressive 1-6-7. However, they've already played 4 of the top 5 away, and not lost by more than one goal to any of them (1-0 to Barcelona and Espanyol, and draws against Valencia and Villarreal).

With the players Madrid have missing, Sporting's habit of keeping it tight away to the top sides, and Madrid's need to preserve energy ahead of the Champions League, I can't see this one being a rout, would be pretty surprised to get any worse than a push from this.

[rcgills]

Expected Sporting to keep it tight, didn't expect them to go and win though

Mourinho's incredible 9-year unbeaten home record comes to an end