Germany, 01 Apr - 04 Apr

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Karlsruher SC - VfL Osnabrück

Karlsruher - VfL Osnabruck Betting Odds, Soccer - 2. Bundesliga

VfL Osnabrück (+0.5)
Odds: 2.00 (IBCBET, 188BET)
Stake: 4/10

&

Under 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.04 (188BET)
Stake: 1/10

(Game will rather be a low-scoring one. Osnabrück will play defensively-minded and KSC has not the quality to break through Osnabrück's defence. Therefore a bet on Under goals makes sense, too. However, I do not bet on goal lines in general. A 2.75 line is unrealistic here.)

Karlsruher are really hard to predict because the gap between their performances is massive. If I have learnt anything from them in this season, then it is that they fail if they are under pressure. They have good potential but in important games like at home vs. staying up rival Ingolstadt (1:4, some weeks ago), they fail. I think there are mainly three reasons for their failure in important games. The first reason is just the fact that their team consists of many very young players. Their more experienced players like Iashvili or Schäfer are totally out of form in this season and the young players are just too inconstant. The second reason for their inconstant season is their poor defence. It begins with their goalkeeper, Christian Nicht, who definitely is the poorest goalkeeper of this league. The statistics also prove that. I do not know why coach Scharinger does not use Luis Robles anymore. Robles was not good, too, but much better than Nicht. The fans also did not understand this decision. Their back four is disastrous as well. F.e. left wing defender Schäfer plays so pathetic in this season, hard to believe that he was a good player some years ago. The central defence changes week after week and that leads of course to a lack of coordination. Their tactical behaviour is very poor, too. The third reason for their poor season is just that they have too much trouble in the club. Karlsruher actually is a team with big ambitions, they have a lot of fans and actually they want to play Bundesliga. The club management is just a joke, meanwhile they used 4 different managers in this season. Their current coach is Rainer Scharinger. The pressure is very big in Karlsruhe. I remember scenes when young players wept because the fans insulted them after defeats. The team just have no leaders and that's their biggest problem.

However, they improved since Scharinger is the coach. In Scharinger's first game, they showed their best away performance and they got a 1:1 draw from Bochum. Then, they showed their best home performance and they beat poor Duisburg by 3:1. But Duisburg is one of the poorest away teams in general and they had nothing to play for. Last week, the big disillusionment was following. They were smashed 5:1 by 1860 away from home and their defence was as poor and uncertain as it was before the manager change. For today, their defence really does not look very well:

Nicht - M. Zimmermann, St. Müller, Witschi, Schäfer - Timm, Aduobe, Staffeldt, Buckley - Chrisantus, Iashvili

I already said enough about their ridicolous goalkeeper Nicht. He is the poorest goalkeeper of the league by far. Zimmermann is an amazing player but the central defence with Müller and Witschi is just too uncertain. Müller is someone who just does too many grave mistakes. He really sums up for Karlsruher's defence problems in this season. Witschi is poor, too, and definitely not a decent defender. Schäfer has to play because Stadler sustained an injury. That's really annoying for Karlsruher because their youngster Stadler recently showed great performances. Schäfer is a big weak point in their back four and he will get problems because Osnabrück's right wing is the better one. Another big problem is that their best striker Cristea (6 goals in 12 games) sustained a cruciate rupture last week. His missing will be a major disadvantage for them. Opportunity killer Chrisantus is not such a good replacement, I am pretty sure.

Osnabrück lately was the team with most misfortune. Their away performances in 2011 were really strong but they just did not reward themselves. I don't want to go detailed into each of their away performances in 2011 but their displays were all through strong. Their counter play works fine away from home because they recently had problems with making the running at home. But due to 4 consecutive defeats, Osnabrück's club management reacted and fired coach Baumann. For today, club legend and interim coach Enochs will sit on the bench. He had more than one week to prepare his team for the important clash in Karlsruher.

Berbig - Schöneberg, Mauersberger, Barletta, Tauer - Schnitzler, Krük, Engel, Lindemann - Tyrala, Kastrati

Several essential players will be back to the squad.There is a high possbility that their by far best striker Kastrati will give his comeback after his horror accident some weeks ago. That would be a major advantage for today because the technical skilled player Kastrati would make much trouble for KSC's pathetic defence.

Osnabrück recently was headed in the right decision but they were just unlucky too often. But especially on the road, they showed suprisingly strong displays. New coach Ennoch's aim will try to stabilise the defence. A compact defence will be the key to success for them. Osnabrück has high qualities in the counter play. Guys like Krük, Kastrati or Tyrala are perfect for fast breaks. In the last games, they already proved that but they were just too unlucky.

To sum up, the game will be closer than odds do suggest. Osnabrück's advantage will be among others "the new coach effect", further essential players for them will be back. Karlsruher has some grave missings in the team and much more pressure. And this season proves that they do not know how to behave among pressure. I think that Osnabrück will definitely achieve a draw at least in Karlsruhe.
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Arminia Bielefeld - FC Augsburg

Augsburg will win, they have much more quality but value is gone on today market. It was a stupid decision this morning to wait still longer. However, no bet for me in this match at current odds because there is no value left.

I expect a 1:2 / 0:1 / 0:2 / 0:3.

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Energie Cottbus - FC Ingolstadt

I expect a high-scoring match here, Ingolstadt +0.75 and bets on over are not so bad but not price is not huge enough for me to take. Cottbus is too prone, they won't be able to keep their sheet clean against an offensively-minded team from Ingolstadt. I expect a 2:2 / 3:2 / 3:1 / 1:2.

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Took @1.89 on IBCBET some hours ago. No value left on current Asian price, StanJames still offers good odds but they have joke limits.

Germany Bundesliga 2 - 02.04.2011: Greuther Furth - Duisburg

OddsPortal: Page not found

Greuther Furth (-0.25)
Odds: 1.77 (StanJames)
Stake: 5/10

In the press conference, Duisburg's coach Milan Sasic complained of the fact that training conditions were not really ideal. Many essential key players were underway with their international teams during the last week and due to the fact that Duisburg has a very small squad, that is fraught with problems. I expect this lineup:

Yelldell - B. Kern, Reiche, Bajic, Veigneau - Banovic, Sukalo - Yilmaz, Baljak, Sahan - Maierhofer

Duisburg has nothing to play for in the league anymore although they still have a little chance of achieving a play-off rank but of course that is unrealistic. Duisburg is a totally pathetic side on the road because their style does not work there. Duisburg is the team with the worst pass completion rate of this league because they only operate through long balls. At home, their style of playing is very pressurize. Running hard, trying to get as many set pieces as possible and long balls in tons. In addition to that they have a quite safe defence. That has been their key to success at home in this season so far but exactly this style does not work on the road. If the opponents make the running and Duisburg is the passive team, their whole strategy does not work. They were unable to solve this problem in this season, they do not know how to counter attack succesfully respectively they just do not know how to behave in away games. At the end of the day, that means that Duisburg is nearly unable to score on the road and all their last away performances were pathetic. F.e. they were smashed by Karlsruher (16th) two weeks ago. Karlsruher is the team with the poorest defence of the whole league but as far as I remember, Duisburg did not have any shot in the first 45 minutes. They are just unable to apply pressure away from home. It's just impossible to be a succesful away team if you have such a horrible pass completion rate.

Furthermore, I observed that Duisburg's players only think about the final in the "DFB Pokal" against Schalke in May. Nobody wants to sustain an injury because the final vs. Schalke will be one of the greatest games in the club history. Their last games were all through poor. Last matchday, they were able to beat Dussledorf at home (1:0) but Dusseldorf is one of the poorest sides at these weeks and the victory was more than lucky. Duisburg scored through their first decent goal chance and before that, they benefitted from Dusseldorf's horrible conversion of chances. But to sum up, Duisburg is just in a horrible shape at the moment and an overrated team. Their technical ability is limitted and away from home they are not better than a relegation battler.

Furth needs a victory to stay near promotion ranks. This game will be one of the key games in this season. Furth is going to start with these eleven players:

Walke - Nehrig, Kleine, Mavraj, Prib - Fürstner, Pekovic - Klaus, N. Müller - Sararer, Slepicka

Furth's players are characterized by their fastness and their fantastic counter ability. These attributes might be helpful if we consider that Duisburg's central defenders are too slow. Nevertheless, it will be a tough task against Duisburg. Duisburg is known for defending decent. They definitely have a good back four and it will be a difficult task to create goal chances but on the other hand we should consider that Duisburg actually needs a victory if they want to keep their little promotion chance. Of course Duisburg will play defensively-minded but they will definitely not stonewall over 90 minutes. In the course of the game, Furth will get more and more space to attack. We should also keep in mind that Duisburg has no good counter attacking players, therefore there is a high possbiility that Furth will keep their sheet clean.

So what kind of game will we see today? A high motivated home team with decent promotion chances against a pathetic away team in a bad form with nothing to play for. The market still overrates Duisburg away from home but in my opinion they are just the team with the biggest gap between home and away performances due to the abovementioned reasons. Furth has much more than 50% to win this game. I rather expect a low scoring match. 1:0 or 2:0 is very possible. -0.25 makes more sense because a draw might be possible, too, if Duisburg shows a good defence performance. But no way, I can see Furth losing this game.

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[B]Germany Bundesliga 2 - 03.04.2011: Alemannia Aachen - 1860 Munich[/B

Alemannia Aachen - Munich 1860 Betting Odds, Soccer - 2. Bundesliga

Alemannia Aachen (-0.25)
Odds: 1.92 (SBOBET)
Stake: 4/10


Both teams are beyond good and evil, both teams really have nothing to play for but both teams recently still played with much effort. Aachen actually is one of the best home teams in Germany Bundesliga2, they have many technical skilled players and their offensive players (Stieber, Arslan, Auer, etc) are the most valuable ones in 2. Bundesliga. F.e. Bundesliga1 team already signed Stieber for the next season. Without their bad technical behaviour and their poor defence, the situation in the table would be much better. But there are mainly two reasons why their season is that poor so far. The first reason is their bad defence, especially the central defenders are very prone. The second reason are their poor and unsteady performances on the road. Their weakness in away matches resulted in many point losses. In the last two home games, they failed vs. amazing Hertha (0:5) and Bochum (1:3). The game vs. Hertha was not that poor but Hertha scored 4 times through 4 goal chances in the first half. The match vs. Bochum was equal but Aachen missed two penalties in 180 seconds (!!). But they really played quite well. On the last matchday, they beat Osnabrück 3:1 and I am sure that this victory helped them to get back their self assurance.

However, one of the main aspects was for me that 1860's defenders are prone to those players. Their central defenders Aygün and Bell are both out due to injury, Bülow (actually rather a DMID) and Buck will play instead of them. Bülow and Buck are well-known for their slowness and phlegm. These players will get massive problems against Aachen's offensive players. Aachen's offensive players are characterized by a high technical ability and a high swiftness. History proves that 1860 has problems to defend against such teams. Especially Rukavina (a very prone left wing defender) will get massive problems against Stieber, the player who is known for his massive running ability and has technical skills. Stieber definitely is one of the best players of the league and Stieber vs. Rukavina will be an important advantage for Aachen.

1860 missings in the defence will hurt today. Their tall players Buck / Bülow are only good in defending high balls but Aachen mainly shows short passing play with many flat passes. 1860 is well-known for being prone against such teams. Furthermore, motivation will rather be on Aachen's side. Aachen wants finally to convert their strong home performances into positive results.

Aachen is the better team, motivation should rather be on their side and 1860 has vital players out in the defence. I hope that Aachen will be able to defend against 1860 fast breaks but actually I am pretty sure that Aachen will make short shrift of 1860's injury-hit back four. Guys like Stieber, Arslan, etc are able to create a lot of goal chances and Auer is one of the best converters of this league. Finally the lineups:

Aachen: Hohs - Demai, Stehle, Feisthammel, Achenbach - Höger - Radjabali-Fardi, Junglas, Arslan - Stieber, Auer

1860: Kiraly - Rukavina, Buck, Bülow, Schindler - Stahl, Ignjovski - Halfar, Aigner - Lauth, Volland

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Germany Bundesliga 2 - 04.04.2011: Frankfurt - Bochum

OddsPortal: Page not found

Frankfurt (+0.5)
Odds: 1.92 (PinnacleSports)
Stake: 4/10

Monday night clash at "Bornheimer Hang" between the working class club from Frankfurt-Bornheim and promotion contender Bochum. Frankfurt still needs some points to avoid the relegation while Bochum is under pressure and has to win to stay near Berlin and Augsburg.

However, the market just totally overreacts and I am very glad that I could get these pretty nice odds on the home side. Yes, Frankfurt's performances in 2011 were pathetic displays and yes, Bochum has a great run but we should go more detailed in Frankfurt's reasons for failure.

The 6:0 defeat in Dusseldorf was the crux of the matter, since then their crisis began. But we should distinguish between their home and away displays. They lost several games on the road when they actually were the better team - examples: 3:1 in Hertha, 2:1 in Cottbus, 2:1 in Aachen. These things may happen, sometimes you just concede late and unlucky goals. But also they were horrible displays at home. Their two performances vs. relegation battlers Karlsruher (1:2) and Ingolstadt (1:2) were shocking poor. But why? They played against deep defending teams, they were forced to make the running but they just did not have the self assurance to make the game. They frantically tried to make the running but they were hit on the break by Karlsruher/Ingolstadt. That patently is not their style of playing. Their strength is their counter play and today they definitely won't be forced to make the running because Bochum is the team which will be under pressure for tonight.

Another reason why their season has turned negatively is the fact that manager Boysen suddenly used young and bad players instead of experienced and good ones. Example: Bouhadouzz and Hickl instead of Fillinger and N'Diaye. No FSV fan really understood that, maybe Boysen thought that the staying up is safe and he may start experimenting. But for today, Bouhadouzz and Hickl are both injured and probably out, that would be an advantage if the more experienced players would get a chance again.

The second reason why they failed was their poor defence. Nobody really understood why the defence suddenly performed that poor. In 2010, their defence still worked very fine but meanwhile their defence became very prone. Of course their players did not forget how to play football, I think that it is just a matter of self-confidence. Last week they could finally have a sense of achievement when they equalized away in Paderborn in the stoppage time. I am sure that will help them to get back their self-assurance. I expect this lineup:

Klandt - C. Müller, Schlicke, Gledson, Konrad - Cinaz, Heitmeier - Wunderlich, Gjasula, Fillinger - Mölders

I really hope that Boysen won't use Hickl / Bouhadouzz again but the last info is that both are only on the bench due to injury and I hope that the more experienced players will get a chance again.

Bochum is totally overrated in these days. Against Cottbus, they played absolutely pathetic. They won by scoring with their only shot on target and they were quite lucky when the post or their goalkeeper saved them their ass. The 1:0 was totally undeserved. Three weeks ago in Aachen it was the same. Aachen missed 2 penalties and Bochum did not play well again.

Furthermore, Bochum is a team which is known for being arrogant against weaker sides. On the road against bottom-placed club Bielefeld, they played poor and they only got a 2:2. And of course Frankfurt is nearly one class stronger than Bielefeld. Bochum's defence definitely is quite solid but their offensive midfield has a big lack of creativity. For today, their best midfield player Ümit Korkmaz will be out due to injury, therefore I expect them to have problems with the creating of opportunities. Frankfurt will rather be succesful with their counter attacks due to that.

I also do not see any motivation problems on Frankfurt's side. For many players it is the first time that they play in free TV with an audience of millions, furthermore in front of their own home crowd. Many people reproached them with the fact that they were unmotivated. Partly that was maybe right at home vs. Ingolstadt / Karlsruher but we should consider that it will be much more easier for them if they are not the favourites, if they are not forced to make the running. Their counter ability is still fantastic - and if Boysen will change back to the succesful lineup from 2010 without Bouhadouzz and Hickl how all fans want him to do, I see a pretty good chance to collect important points tonight.

If I just have a look on Bochum's recent displays, they no way can be a -0.5 favourite away against a team like Frankfurt with so much potential. Bochum recently performed lethargic and today their most important player Ümit Korkmaz will be unfit. The odds on Frankfurt are too massive, the odds were correct on early market when the line was +0.25/-0.25 but now I will go against the market.

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28th round - resume

VfL Osnabrück (+0.5) @2.00 (4/10) -> FT 2:2 -> WON -> + 4u
VfL Osnabrück - Karlsruher SC Under 2.5 goals @2.04 (1/10) -> FT 2:2 -> LOSS -> -1u
Greuther Furth (-0.25) @1.77(5/10) -> FT 2:1 -> WON -> + 3.85u
Alemannia Aachen(-0.25) @1.92 (4/10) -> FT 2:1 -> WON -> + 3.68u
Frankfurt (+0.5) @1.90 (4/10) -> FT 0:1 -> LOSS -> -4u

Balance: + 6.26u

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Yes, but I have a horrible bad streak at the moment.