Germany, 26 Nov - 29 Nov

[DSQUAREDLOL]

26.11.2010: Arminia Bielefeld vs. Fortuna Dusseldorf

Bielefeld was the team which bailed me out of my downswing. Years ago they were a solid team but due to their financial situation, their team is not fit for Bundesliga 2. Three weeks ago Bielefeld fired Ziege and they hired Ewald Lienen. In the first game they beat one of the poorest away teams of the league, VfL Osnabruck, by 2:1. However this win was simply undeserved. Osnabruck was at least one class better, but they missed a penalty, missed the empty goal, hit the post and in the end Bielefeld won through two curious own goals of Osnabruck. Some people thought that this game would have been the turning point. But of course it was not. Lat Friday they travelled to Oberhausen. Oberhausen is very poor at the moment, a lot of players are injured but Oberhausen had no problems with beating Bielefeld by 3:0. Another problem for Bielefeld today will be that their best central defender di Gregorio is very doubtful for this game. Probably he won\'t be able to start in the lineup. The replacements would be very poor, Toure and Appiah are too young and too bad for Bundesliga 2. But I do not want to waste so many words about them. It\'s a fact that Bielefeld is the poorest team of Bundesliga 2 by far and I would put my shirt on Bielefeld\'s relegation this season. And I can\'t understand for which reason we still get a +0 line on the opponents.

Dusseldorf is redolent of Union Berlin some weeks ago. Playing in a good way but without rewarding themselves. Actually Dusseldorf would be good enough to achieve a safe midfield position this year but their conversion of chances is simply too poor. Their recent away performances look very poor on the first view. They lost away in Paderborn (3:0), Aue (1:0) and Union Berlin (1:0). Nevertheless, in all three games Fortuna showed very decent performances. Especially in Aue and Berlin they played really well and they lost because of bad luck. If they would be able to repeat such a performance, they would not have any problems with getting three points from Bielefeld. Already Dusseldorf\'s performances away from home were quite decent in this season.
Moreover Dusseldorf\'s coach Norbert Meier will draw on unlimited resources: not any missing player. Meier is spoilt for choice today. Dum, Wellington, Rockenbach and Christ won\'t be in the squad for the game today.

All in all Dusseldorf is the clear favourite here. Bielefeld won two time in this season (1:0 vs. Ingolstadt, 2:1 vs. Osnabruck) and both wins were undeserved and due to more luck than judgement. Dusseldorf is much better than Bielefeld, their recent performances were quite good and they are well-known as a passionate and fighting team. That will be a crucial
advantage due to the bad weather conditions. To cut a long story short, this game can\'t be as balanced as the market thinks. It\'s the pick of the weekend.

Fortuna Dusseldorf (+0) @1.74 (SBOBET)

[DSQUAREDLOL]

It is 6/10 .. forgot it, sorry.

26.11.2010: VfL Bochum vs. Paderborn

I really do not like it to back teams which experience a crisis but today I have to play Bochum at this price. The price simply does not reflect the quality gap beetween these two sides. First of all, Bochum lost by 1:4 against bottom ranked Ingolstadt and it was a catastrophal performance. Bochum has much more potential but they did not show it. But finally Bochum\'s coach showed the perfect reaction! Giovanni Federico probably won\'t play today although he has much potential. But his apathy in the past months was a cheek. The same applies to Mavraj and Maric. This decision was long overdue. Instead of them Saglik and Rzatovski will start. Saglik played a poor season so far as well but the difference beetween him and Federico for instance was that Saglik tried his best. Any way, Saglik is a very good striker (scored 15 times for SC Paderborn last season) and against his ex team, he will be motivated enough. Rzatovski is a young player and the fans press for his first-team place for a long time. Moreover Bochum\'s captain and key player Dabrowski will return to the team. As well as their best defender Yahia who was suspended on last weekend. Any way, I really like Bochum\'s lineup for today and probably Funkel learned from his mistakes.

Paderborn are customary worse away than at home. Last weekend several players were out. The result was that they collapsed against Greuther Furth and they were outplayed (0:4). Today still some more key players will be out. Regular defence player Strohdiek is suspended and the regulars Heitholter and Wemmer as well. Moreover their best player Alushi is very doubtful for today. Their defence regular Mohr was feverish and he is very doubtful as well. A small team like Paderborn is not able to make up for those grave missings. Probably their coach Schubert will be forced to play with a back three.
Furthermore the 0:4 defeat was a massive shock for them at last weekend and especially those small teams usually have problems with such setbacks.

It\'s not just that Bochum\'s team has much more quality but Paderborn has hard injury worries for today. So many key players are out or doubtful. That will be very difficult for them. Bochum\'s coach Funkel showed a good reaction and I think that he did everything right he could do. The price is too huge for the home team. I am sure that Bochum is a very good bet for today. However, I can\'t play above 4 units here because it is possible that Bochum will play against Funkel.

VfL Bochum (-0.75) @2.31 IBCBET with 3/10

[leamingtonlad]

Nice work again DSQUAREDLOL,your knowledge of the german football is outstanding, gives us a advantage when we bet on the bundesliga, missed your selections tonite but will always look at your thead when the weekend comes around

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Hi,

sorry for being that late again but I wake up too late one more time. I hope you can take it anyway, maybe live.

Energie Cottbus vs. Erzgebirge Aue

Top clash beetween 6th ranked Cottbus and big suprise team Aue (1st). Aue is a promoted team from Bundesliga 3. Laying Aue cost me so money so far but I have to lay them again because they had more luck than judgement in this season so far. Beyond doubt, Aue is a very solid Bundesliga 2 team but especially away from home, they were sometimes very lucky. A good example was their away performance in Karlsruhe when they scored through a curious goal which was the result of a blow on the shin. After it Karlsruher showed good tempo football and Aue had problems. But Karlsruher was unlucky because they hit the inner of the post and a clear penalty was not awarded for them. In the end it was an unflattering 1:1 for Aue. Also other teams proved that fast offensive soccer is they key to success against them. For instance Union Berlin some weeks ago - they showed fast offensive soccer against Aue as well but they had some problems with the conversion of chances, hence they tied 1:1.

But what's the difference beetween Union Berlin, Karlsruher and Energie Cottbus? The conversion of chances and their callousness. For instance in Cottbus' last game, they had two opportunities in the whole game and they converted both of them. Cottbus has the best strike duo of Bundesliga 2, consisting of Nils Petersen (10 goals) and Emil Jula (4 goals). You need such players if you want to have success against Aue. Moreover Cottbus is in a good shape, only one player is missing (Adlung) / (Aue will be without their best striker Kern). Anyhow, Energie Cottbus is amazing at home. They have two different faces away and at home and at home they are one class stronger.

So what sort of game will we see this noon? Aue customary confine themselves to defend in a very deep way and they will try to hit Cottbus on the break. Aue's defence is good but the last months proved that they have problems against strong offensive teams and Cottbus is one of course. Moreover it's a game beetween two teams from East Germany, so motivation will be high for both teams of course. I hope that Aue's incredible fortune is used up as soon as possible and I am sure that Cottbus will win today, if they will show their fast attacking soccer.

Energie Cottbus (-0.5) @ 2.05 (PinnacleSports) with 3/10

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FC Ingolstadt vs. Union Berlin

Looks like Ingolstadt is finally back on the track after the strong performance in Bochum at last weekend (Ingolstadt won 4:1). They are still very deep in the standings (17th) but with Benno Mohlmann, things went better. But Ingolstadt has a horrible home performance and I can explain you why. The best example was the game against Paderborn two weeks ago (first game with Mohlmann as the coach). Paderborn are poor travellers and not a good team but Paderborn defended deep and Ingolstadt had no idea how to break through their defence. That's Ingolstadt biggest problem. Their team does not know how to proceed against deep defending teams. Hence, the game in Bochum was better for them because they could counter attack. But anyhow, Ingolstadt's team has lower quality than Union Berlin.

Union Berlin performs very good at the moment and they are in a fantastic shape. In each of the last games, Union showed a strong performance, even when they were beaten away against 4th ranked FSV Frankfurt three weeks ago. By the way, Union Berlin's line was +0 away in Frankfurt (4th) and now they have a +0.25 line? I can't comprehend this. One reason could be that some important players will be out for Union Berlin. First of all, central defender Ahmed Madouni. But for long periods of the season they played without him and the central defence Stuff/Gohlert did their jobs good. The same is true of Santi Kolk. He is a fantastic player but for long periods they were without him as well - and they played good without him also. Moreover Dominic Peitz is suspended but he is just a holding midfielder and his replacement Rauw is at the same level. The only missing which really hurts is the missing of captain Mattuschka who will be probably out. He is their best player and he is important in the central midfield. But Union has enough quality to make up for such a missing. Ede, Mosquera, Benyamina - all these players are much more technical skilled than the players from Ingolstadt.

All in all we will see a poor home team which customary has problems against deep defending away teams (and Union Berlin will do so). The 4:1 in Bochum was fantastic for them but the game today will be different. Union Berlin is the better team and although some players are out, I am not able to comprehend this huge line. Ingolstadt is hyped by the market and I am sure that Berlin will take at least one point from Ingolstadt because their last performances were fantastic.

Union Berlin (+0.25) @2.06 (SBOBET) with 3/10

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Hi,

29.11.2010: Greuther Furth vs. 1860 Munich

First of all, Greuther Furth is the team of the league which I know at best. I was in their stadium sometimes and I exactly know how this team works. Greuther Furth's philosophy is short passing and fast combinations. Furthermore they operate with deep forward passes and Furth has a couple of fast strikers. The best examples are Muller and Nehrig, their wingers who have a fantastic acceleration. Sararer and Aleksic are very fast as well. Anyhow that's the style of Greuther Furth, fast combinations and fluent short passing game. Their through passes are their biggest strength and exactly this might be a problem for the guests. 1860 customary has not a good defence but this season it is some different. Sometimes their defence does a fantastic job - for instance when they travelled to strong Cottbus two weeks ago (0:0). Cottbus is a team with a very fine cross ability and strikers who are good in the air. Then again their defence had massive problems against FSV Frankfurt at last weekend when they conceded 3 goals. FSV Frankfurt is similiar to Greuther Furth, FSV operates with fast through passes into the deep. But for which reason 1860's defence plays erratically? 1860 has very tall and therefore slow defenders. Their back four consists of Rukavina (RB), Bell (CD), Bülow (CD) and Buck (LB). Especially Buck is not a good left-back because he is stiff and slow. He will get many problems against Nehrig. With Bell and Bülow it is actually the same, both have speed problems. Therefore I believe that 1860's defence will get serious problems against the fast combination play from Greuther Furth.

Greuther Furth recently striked back from a crisis with a fantastic 4:0 away against Paderborn. They convince with their good short passing game. The form curve is upturned again. 1860 is a hard nut to crack because they are unbeatable 10 times in a row but due to the abovementioned reasons I think that they will get some problems in Furth. Moreover some very important regulars finally return. Biliskov (captain) and Pekovic will be available again, both players are the most important guys in the defence.
Another hot story is that 1860 has very serious financial difficulties. 1860 will be forced to sell some players in the winter break. Anyhow I believe that Furth will win this match. The -0.25 line is very good because I actually can not see Furth losing today. It will be a tough game for them tonight but I think that a draw would be the worst case.

Greuther Furth (-0.25) @1.82 (SBOBET) with 5/10

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Fortuna Dusseldorf (+0) @1.74 (SBOBET) with 6/10

VfL Bochum (-0.75) @2.31 IBCBET with 3/10

Energie Cottbus (-0.5) @ 2.05 (PinnacleSports) with 3/10

Union Berlin (+0.25) @2.06 (SBOBET) with 3/10 damn late and irregular goal :mad::mad:

Greuther Furth (-0.25) @1.82 (SBOBET) with 5/10

good weekend.

see ya next weekend,

Benny