Germany 19 Nov - 22 Nov

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Hi,

I played @2.28 with subscribers this morning, but still some value in this pick.

19.11.2010: VfL Osnabruck vs. Hertha Berlin

The crucial factor for this pick is the quality gap beetween these two teams - of course VfL Osnabruck has a strong atmosphere at home, especially under floodlight, but they did not perform well enough at last to achieve anything against Berlin. Due to their bad streak, they have of course a lack of self-confidence. Last Saturday they were beaten against very poor Bielefeld in a curious way, Osnabruck conceded two goals through own goals and they missed a penalty. Anyhow I see them being a relegation canidate this year, apart from Bielefeld there is no other team which is worse than Osnabruck. But Osnabruck\'s biggest strength is their passional football and fighting for every single ball.

Exactly this was Berlin\'s problem in the past few games. The best example was the game in Paderborn two weeks ago when Hertha wasn\'t in the mood for struggling, the consequence was that they lost 1:0 against passional Paderborn. Hertha\'s coach Markus Babbel was very angry about his team\'s performance and he made them clear that they have no chance in Bundesliga 2 if they do not struggle. On Monday Hertha showed a reaction when they played very strong at home vs. Bochum - everyone saw that Hertha is unbeatable if they really want to play good. Nevertheless they stopped playing after the lead, that wasn\'t good but especially in the beginning of the game they showed amazing football.
Anyhow, I don\'t believe that they will suddenly show a different face in Osnabruck. The poor performance in Paderborn was explainable - Hertha had 8 games break and a weary journey to Paderborn, moreover atmosphere in Paderborn\'s stadium isn\'t good and the game was noonday. Today it\'s different because they will play in Osnabruck under flood light and Osnabruck is well known for one of the best home crowds in Germany. Moreover the break beetween the Bochum game and the game today took only 4 days. So I think that they are still on fire.

Concluding a few words to Hertha\'s quality. Their best player Ramos (best player of Bundesliga 2, even better than Raffael) will be back after his rightless Red Card, he was on fire and with him they will be still much stronger than on Monday. Raffael\'s brother Ronny showed a very decent performance on Monday. Ramos - Raffael - Ronny means pure quality. Anyhow Hertha is some stronger than the one or other Bundesliga team.

Osnabruck is a good home team but due to their lack of self confidence, I see them having big problems against amazing Hertha. I simply can\'t believe that Hertha will suddenly play crappy again, they will take lessons from the Paderborn-game and I am sure they will keep on playing good. The return of Ramos was the crucial factor for this bet, Ramos is so good that he would easily be regular for a top team in the Bundesliga team (teams like Hoffenheim wanted to buy him) and he will be on fire after the unfair suspension. The quality gap is too massive beetween Osnabruck and Berlin. I will go for -0.75 here because I think that Hertha will be strong enough to win by some goals difference if they will use their potential.

Hertha Berlin (-0.75) @2.14 (SBOBET) with 3/10

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Concluding my view about the other games:

Oberhausen vs. Bielefeld

I am sure that we will see one of the poorest games in Bundesliga 2 history, both teams have so many missings, the pitch and the weather isn't good and especially in the offensive both teams have no quality. Under might be a good choice here but the price is too short for me. Actually I see Bielefeld getting something from Oberhausen because I even see them being slightly stronger today (best OM Heidinger is back after suspension) and they have the 2:1 vs. Osnabruck at the back. However, Bielefeld's price is far away from being value here.

Prediction: 0:1

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Union Berlin vs. Fortuna Dusseldorf

Union is the slightly better team and due to the fact that Fortuna aren't good away from home, it would sound logically to back Union here. However the price is dropped to heavy so that it doesn't worth a bet anymore. Keep in mind that Dusseldorf's away performances were always solid but they didn't reward themselves. Both teams are well known as being unable to convert opportunities, however both sides are good so that I am far away from backing the under 2.25 here. Line is definitely too short. If you want to play under tonight, then choose the Oberhausen-match. I rather prefer over 2.25 here.

Prediction: 1:1

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Rgds and good luck,

Benny

[tipsters]

Nurnberg - Kaiserslautern

A pick of the day with great odds! Nurnberg is playeng on of their best seassons in a last 10 years, or so. Altough, they are on 10 position in Bundesliga, with today win, they could ( theoretically ) jumo to fourth place, because there is nly a 3 point gap between 10th, and 4th position. Great Bayern mess their plans a litle bit after a 3:0 win, last week over Nurnberg, because they had a four wins in a row ( where they were scoring at least two goals per game ). Guests did not find their place with a "big boys", after their promotion this summer to a first Bundesliga. They are on a 15th place, only one point away from red zone, playing badly on away games ( 5 loosed gamed from 6 ). Nurnberg should win this easilly.

Good luck!

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Hi,

20.11.2010: SC Paderborn 07 vs. Greuther Furth

Paderborn can't be favourite here although they are a good home side and Greuther's recent results were anything but good. But we will see a below average team against a hot promotion favourite. Hence I can't understand the odds and what's more, we have to keep in mind that many players will be out/doubtful for Paderborn today.
Any way, Paderborn is a team which recently showed some good home performances but their victories were against poor travellers or teams which had a very bad day (Union Berlin and Dusseldorf - both customary poor travellers, poor Bielefeld and weak away side Hertha Berlin). However, Paderborn has a lack of good offensive players and the offensive has no vigorous effect. As it is, Paderborn is specialised in counterattacking. Their key to success in the past months and years was to try hitting the opponents on the break. That could be difficult today because Greuther Furth customary plays very observerant away from home and they build on their good defense. Therefore I really can't see Paderborn breaking succesful through Greuther's defense - but Paderborn has to do because they are the home team and they will be forced to make the running. And especially that is the weakness of Paderborn. Moreover we have to mention that Paderborn's regular Heitholter will be definitely out, as well as replace player Wemmer. The central defender Strohdiek is still very doubtful, he could not train during the week. The same goes for their most important striker Kapllani who had problems with his wisdom teeth.
Nevertheless we have to mention that Greuther has some missings also but that's not new. Defence players Pekovic and Biliskov are out but anyway Furth's squad is strong enough to replace them - Furstner will play instead of Pekovic. Pekovic is important but Furstner is more offensively-minded and Biliskov was an instability factor in the past weeks. So it should be enough regarding their personell situation. Furth's past results look horrible: 0-1-3. After good start, the young team had big problems. But we have to see against which sides Furth had problems. Greuther lost vs. Cottbus (2:0), Hertha Berlin (2:0), Aue (2:1) and Duisburg (2:0). These teams are the top 4 of the table. Especially Duisburg, Cottbus and Hertha are well-known for their fresh and fast offensive play and that's Greuther's biggest problem. Greuther Furth's defense is not bad, so don't take me wrong but they have problems against such teams who have much offensive power. Setting a high pace is the key to success against Greuther Furth but as I mentioned it above, Paderborn's offensive is quite bad.
Therefore I think that Paderborn will get serious problems against Furth's observant playing. Furth will be more important through their counter attacks, I am very sure. And finally the most important fact: Greuther Furth is patently the better team.
I will go for the +0 here instead of the +0.25 because a draw wouldn't be enough for Furth and they will go for the win today. I gave away too much money with playing +0.25.

Greuther Furth (+0) @2.20 (bet365) with 5/10

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20.11.2010: VfL Bochum vs. FC Ingolstadt

A bet on bottom ranked Ingolstadt who played 0-1-10 so far? Yes. First of all, one very important fact for my bet. Four very important regulars will be out for Bochum today. Their key player Dabrowski is suspended after his fifth yellow card but next to him, their best defender Yahia, their midfield regular Maric and their goal scorer Dedic are suspended for today's game due to disciplinary reasons. Yahia, Maric and Dedic went out before the game against Hertha and they came back too late to the hotel. But to be honest, it doesn't suprise me. Some weeks ago I wrote in a preview that the team has disciplinary problems, obviously Bochum's coach Funkel (IMO the worst coach of the league) is not able to have everything under control. His players act up with him. Any way, that's a big blow for Bochum because they won't be able to replace these players. No team would be able to replace the missings of the most important players. So Funkel will be forced to improvise for this game. No matter what he will do, the team will have much less quality due to the missings. Anyhow the atmosphere in Bochum currently hit the rocks. Started as the big promotion favourite next to Hertha, Bochum is meanwhile far away from the promotion ranks. The fans are very critical and many of them press for Funkel's sacking. Funkel still try to use rallying calls but he finally needs results.
Due to all these things, Bochum will be the perfect opponent for Ingolstadt today. First of all I have to make it plain that Ingolstadt is much, much better than the results suggest. Sometimes they were incredible unlucky and of course Ingolstadt is at the same level with teams like Osnabruck or Oberhausen. However I realized that Ingolstadt has difficulties with making the running at home. For instance against Paderborn last Sunday, Paderborn went ahead very early through a penalty and afterwards, Ingolstadt had no idea how to break through Paderborn's defense. It was the same course of game against FSV Frankfurt and Rot-Weiss Oberhausen also. Their strongest performances were against strong teams. For instance versus Energie Cottbus (4th), Ingolstadt was much better and they lost through two very late goals. Or when they played very good away against technical skilled Aachen several weeks ago (lost 2:1, however). As well in Furth it was the same some weeks ago, Furth is a technical skilled team and Ingolstadt played very well, however without rewarding themselves and they were defeated very close. But Ingolstadt's away performances were even some better than their home performances. Any way, their strongest performances were when they were not forced to make the running. And exactly this will be the situation today.
The difference beetween the last games will be that Ingolstadt will play against a very disorderly team with many missings and for one week, Ingolstadt has a new coach. I am sure Ingolstadt will get something from Bochum today. I will take +0.5 here because +0.75 would be nonsense. If Ingolstadt will lose this game, then they will lose it clearly. In general I usually try to avoid the +0.75 handicap.


Ingolstadt (+0.5) @2.17 (188bet) with 3/10

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Originally Posted by Benny1887

Hi,

20.11.2010: SC Paderborn 07 vs. Greuther Furth

Paderborn can't be favourite here although they are a good home side and Greuther's recent results were anything but good. But we will see a below average team against a hot promotion favourite. Hence I can't understand the odds and what's more, we have to keep in mind that many players will be out/doubtful for Paderborn today.
Any way, Paderborn is a team which recently showed some good home performances but their victories were against poor travellers or teams which had a very bad day (Union Berlin and Dusseldorf - both customary poor travellers, poor Bielefeld and weak away side Hertha Berlin). However, Paderborn has a lack of good offensive players and the offensive has no vigorous effect. As it is, Paderborn is specialised in counterattacking. Their key to success in the past months and years was to try hitting the opponents on the break. That could be difficult today because Greuther Furth customary plays very observerant away from home and they build on their good defense. Therefore I really can't see Paderborn breaking succesful through Greuther's defense - but Paderborn has to do because they are the home team and they will be forced to make the running. And especially that is the weakness of Paderborn. Moreover we have to mention that Paderborn's regular Heitholter will be definitely out, as well as replace player Wemmer. The central defender Strohdiek is still very doubtful, he could not train during the week. The same goes for their most important striker Kapllani who had problems with his wisdom teeth.
Nevertheless we have to mention that Greuther has some missings also but that's not new. Defence players Pekovic and Biliskov are out but anyway Furth's squad is strong enough to replace them - Furstner will play instead of Pekovic. Pekovic is important but Furstner is more offensively-minded and Biliskov was an instability factor in the past weeks. So it should be enough regarding their personell situation. Furth's past results look horrible: 0-1-3. After good start, the young team had big problems. But we have to see against which sides Furth had problems. Greuther lost vs. Cottbus (2:0), Hertha Berlin (2:0), Aue (2:1) and Duisburg (2:0). These teams are the top 4 of the table. Especially Duisburg, Cottbus and Hertha are well-known for their fresh and fast offensive play and that's Greuther's biggest problem. Greuther Furth's defense is not bad, so don't take me wrong but they have problems against such teams who have much offensive power. Setting a high pace is the key to success against Greuther Furth but as I mentioned it above, Paderborn's offensive is quite bad.
Therefore I think that Paderborn will get serious problems against Furth's observant playing. Furth will be more important through their counter attacks, I am very sure. And finally the most important fact: Greuther Furth is patently the better team.
I will go for the +0 here instead of the +0.25 because a draw wouldn't be enough for Furth and they will go for the win today. I gave away too much money with playing +0.25.

Greuther Furth (+0) @2.20 (bet365) with 5/10

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20.11.2010: VfL Bochum vs. FC Ingolstadt

A bet on bottom ranked Ingolstadt who played 0-1-10 so far? Yes. First of all, one very important fact for my bet. Four very important regulars will be out for Bochum today. Their key player Dabrowski is suspended after his fifth yellow card but next to him, their best defender Yahia, their midfield regular Maric and their goal scorer Dedic are suspended for today's game due to disciplinary reasons. Yahia, Maric and Dedic went out before the game against Hertha and they came back too late to the hotel. But to be honest, it doesn't suprise me. Some weeks ago I wrote in a preview that the team has disciplinary problems, obviously Bochum's coach Funkel (IMO the worst coach of the league) is not able to have everything under control. His players act up with him. Any way, that's a big blow for Bochum because they won't be able to replace these players. No team would be able to replace the missings of the most important players. So Funkel will be forced to improvise for this game. No matter what he will do, the team will have much less quality due to the missings. Anyhow the atmosphere in Bochum currently hit the rocks. Started as the big promotion favourite next to Hertha, Bochum is meanwhile far away from the promotion ranks. The fans are very critical and many of them press for Funkel's sacking. Funkel still try to use rallying calls but he finally needs results.
Due to all these things, Bochum will be the perfect opponent for Ingolstadt today. First of all I have to make it plain that Ingolstadt is much, much better than the results suggest. Sometimes they were incredible unlucky and of course Ingolstadt is at the same level with teams like Osnabruck or Oberhausen. However I realized that Ingolstadt has difficulties with making the running at home. For instance against Paderborn last Sunday, Paderborn went ahead very early through a penalty and afterwards, Ingolstadt had no idea how to break through Paderborn's defense. It was the same course of game against FSV Frankfurt and Rot-Weiss Oberhausen also. Their strongest performances were against strong teams. For instance versus Energie Cottbus (4th), Ingolstadt was much better and they lost through two very late goals. Or when they played very good away against technical skilled Aachen several weeks ago (lost 2:1, however). As well in Furth it was the same some weeks ago, Furth is a technical skilled team and Ingolstadt played very well, however without rewarding themselves and they were defeated very close. But Ingolstadt's away performances were even some better than their home performances. Any way, their strongest performances were when they were not forced to make the running. And exactly this will be the situation today.
The difference beetween the last games will be that Ingolstadt will play against a very disorderly team with many missings and for one week, Ingolstadt has a new coach. I am sure Ingolstadt will get something from Bochum today. I will take +0.5 here because +0.75 would be nonsense. If Ingolstadt will lose this game, then they will lose it clearly. In general I usually try to avoid the +0.75 handicap.


Ingolstadt (+0.5) @2.17 (188bet) with 3/10

Ingolstadt 4:1 & Furth 4:0

Just perfect, it was beyond my wildest dreams. To be honest I did not expect that games would be that clear. I hope some guys profit from it.

[DSQUAREDLOL]

21.11.2010: Augsburg vs. Karlsruher

[SIZE=\"2\"]The line is much too high, respectively Augsburg is not such a clear favourite today although hosts currently are in a very good shape. After a very difficult start, Augsburg rallied and they recently showed some very good performances. But we have to keep in mind that their convincing victories were against two very poor sides (Bielefeld and Oberhausen). Karlsruher is much stronger than them. However, the main reason for my bet here is that the history proved that Augsburg customary has problems against good defending teams. A good example was when they hosted against Paderborn early in the season and when they had serious problems to get any opportunity. However, they won through a late goal but Paderborn had a sending-off. Another good example was their performance vs. Union Berlin in October. Augsburg won by 2:1 but it was one of the most undeserved victories, I have seen in this season. Again Augsburg had problems with scoring against a deep defending defense. In the end they scored through a free-kick and through a crazy goal of 60m distance.
Any way, breaking through deep defending defenses is not Augsburgs strength.

But exactly that is Karlsruher\'s style at the moment. Their new coach Kauczynski has a clear playing philosophy, defending deep and hit the opponents on the break. It worked very well so far, in Osnabruck they achieved a 0:0 and at home they tied against Aue by 1:1 (but they were the better team). Especially against Aue Karlsruher had misfortune when they hit the inner of the post and when they did not get a very clear penalty. Moreover it will be the last game of caretaker coach Kauczynski, maybe another motivation for his players. By the way, there are still a couple of injured players out but the past games proved that they are able to compensate it.

But the main reason for this bet is that I simply can\'t see such a huge quality gap beetween these two teams. Of course Augsburg is a bit stronger but it doesn\'t justify a -1/+1 line. I even see a very high possibility for Karlsruher to get something from Augsburg. I think that Augsburg always has problems against teams like Karlsruher, especially at home and if Karlsruher won\'t concede an early goal, Karlsruher will do it.[/SIZE]

Karlsruher (+1) @1.92 (188bet) with 4/10

[DSQUAREDLOL]

MSV Duisburg vs. Energie Cottbus

Rarely I go against market moves and rarely I play uncommon AHC lines but today I will do it. First of all, I decided to play +0.25 because I see a pretty good chance for Cottbus to win - they will go up to Duisburg to take three points. Cottbus\' coach Pele Wollitz has a special playing philosophy, even if he would play away against Real Madrid, he would play offensively-minded. Moreover I know that Cottbus would lose clearly, if they would lose due to their offensively-minded strategy. Over 2,5 looks very decent also but I always try to avoid betting on goal lines. Any way, I expect that Duisburgs amazing home run will find an end tonight.

So let\'s come back to topic. Duisburg\'s 6-0-0 records looks amazing and Duisburg is a very strong home side. However, their defense is not invulnerable. Especially in the game against Greuther Furth (two weekends ago) Duisburg\'s defence allowed tons of opportunities for Greuther Furth. When Greuther Furth (same level like Cottbus) started playing in the second half time, they put Duisburg under serious problems. And today Duisburg\'s best defender Bruno Soares will be out due to suspension. It\'s the first time in this season that Duisburg\'s coach Sasic will be forced to change the central defence. Reiche will replace him. A case can be made that Duisburg\'s defence won\'t be the best today and Cottbus has a fantastic offensive. Moreover Grlic won\'t be available for today, he is their 35 years old leader and he has the best freekicks of Bundesliga 2. Another weakness for them today and as I have written it on last weekend, Duisburg\'s biggest problem is that they have 11 good players but the quality on the bench is significantly lower.

Another fact which puts me in an optimistic mood today is that Duisburg mainly operates with long crosses to their 2,02m tall striker Mairhofer. They don\'t use short passing but exactly this would be the key to success against Cottbus. Cottbus\' defence is their weak point, beyond doubt, but their central defenders are very tall also and it will be much easier for Cottbus today due to their heading ability. As it is, Duisburg don\'t use fast deep forward passes. Several weeks ago Cottbus had huge problems against Karlsruhe who had a short passing strategy with flat through balls. That was very difficult for Cottbus\' slow defenders, therefore they conceded 5 goals. But today it will be much easier then. Maybe it sounds incomprehensible for you but I simply think that Cottbus\' defence won\'t get such problems against Duisburg\'s usual strategy.

Indeed, Cottbus\' last away performances were everything else but good. They suffered from the \"Hertha Berlin-syndrome\" and they were too arrogant away from home against bottom ranked teams like Osnabruck and Ingolstadt. But I am sure the motivation will be much higher for them under flood light against a equipollent team.
Cottbus will be without Kronaveter and Soma today but that\'s no problem. Kronaveter is a very good midfield player but he was injured for several weeks and the Japanese Soma is such a bad defence player and to be honest I am glad that I won\'t be forced to see him playing today. Cottbus\' best striker Nils Petersen is still a bit doubtful - a missing would be fatal but his strike partner Emil Jula is even much more important. Emil Jula is the guy who creates the goalscoring chances, Nils Petersen is just the converter. Of course I hope that Petersen will play today but he would be replaceable.

However, I can\'t see Duisburg being such a clear favourite today. A debable for Cottbus is possible but improbably. But if Cottbus would lose, they would lose clearly. Therefore +0.75 would be nonsense.

Energie Cottbus (+0.25) @2.45 (PinnacleSports) with 4/10

[DSQUAREDLOL]

FT 2:2 half won

But undeserved, pick wasn't good and Duisburg was disadvantaged by referee.

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Solid weekend all in all due to fantastic Saturday.

Hertha Berlin (-0.75) @2.14 (SBOBET) with 3/10 LOST

Karlsruher (+1) @1.92 (188bet) with 4/10 LOST

Greuther Furth (+0) @2.20 (bet365) with 5/10 WON

Ingolstadt (+0.5) @2.17 (188bet) with 3/10 WON

Energie Cottbus (+0.25) @2.45 (PinnacleSports) with 4/10 HALF WON

See you next weekend,

Benny