Germany 29 Oct - 01 Nov

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Germany 29 Oct - 01 Nov

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29.10.2010: Greuther Furth vs. Erzgebirge Aue

I rubbed my eyes in disbelief when I saw odds for this match, I expected -0.75 line and I will play it on early market because I expect a massive drop within the next days.
At first view it seems like a top clash beetween 4th ranked team against 3rd ranked team. Of course guests are in a fantastic form, but they are a promoted team and they could not convince me so far. Often Aue's victories were very, very lucky. Furth is at least a half class stronger and they need a win after the defeat against Hertha. Anyway, Furth is the best team in Bundesliga 2 behind Hertha and they have good technical skilled players. They strength is their defense, it is nearly impossible to score in Furth. But Furth's offensive is very powerful also. Two times Greuther lost in this season (2:0 away vs. Cottbus, 2:0 away vs. Hertha). The key to success of Cottbus and Hertha was very fast offensive soccer and immense pressure. Cottbus and Hertha have high offensive quality and Furth had problems with it. So you see Greuther's defense is definitely conquerable but you need high offensive quality and you need to move the game into Furth's field half. But Aue won't do, they will focus on their strong defense and they will try to keep a clean sheet. I am sure they won't score because their aim will be to play 0:0.
But it's a physical impossibility to keep a clean sheet in Furth because their strong offensive players like Aleksic, Müller and so on are simply too strong. I can't remember when I saw a team keeping a clean sheet in Furth's stadium.
Of course it seems like a close top clash at the first view but Aue is simply overrated, Furth is much better. Aue won several times benefited from referees or with late goals in the injury time. Their defense is strong but it is possible to break through their defense with high pace. Two weeks ago Union Berlin showed how to do it when they created several opportunities at home against Aue (well, they could not convert their opportunities). And especially fast offensive soccer is the strength of Greuther Furth. I can not believe that Aue will perpetuate their good run.

Greuther Furth (-0.5) @1.86 (PinnacleSports) with 5/10

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29.10.2010: Arminia Bielefeld vs. Union Berlin

Once again the asian market makes us a present of a game with Arminia Bielefeld. The odds are totally set wrong again because Union Berlin is the favourite in this match.
I have already said a lot about the bankrupt Bielefeld, unquestionably they are the worst team of 2. Bundesliga and the staying up would be a miracle. The quality in this team is too low, too many young players without any technical skills. And to make matters worse, Bielefeld has misfortune with injuries.
Anyway, yesterday I read a very interesting story in the newspaper. Bielefelds managing committee gave coach Ziege an ultimatum. He needs six points out of the next three games! If he will fail to do it (of course he will fail), Bielefeld will fire him. Bielefelds managing committee did a big mistake with putting this team still more under pressure. This team is too young and they know that they need a victory against Union on Friday. If not, the team will get difficulties. But Bielefelds quality is not high enough to make the running at home, I simply can't believe that they will be able to beat Union. Their sole win was against Ingolstadt but the victory was lucky and Ingolstadt had a black day. After poor defeat at home against Duisburg (1:3), they achieve a 0:0 away against 1860. They defended extrem deep and 1860 could not convert their opportunities but Bielefeld won't defend in the own stadium. That will be their problem.
On the other hand, Union Berlin's misfortune is unbelievable. Playing really great week for week but without any earnings. Contrary to Bielefeld, the managing committee passed a vote of confidence in Berlin's coach Uwe Neuhaus. If necessary, they will go in the 3. Liga with him but they have nothing to worry about. This team is strong enough to achieve a safe midfield position. But the biggest joke was the game away against promotion favourite Augsburg on last Friday. They were early 1:0 in lead and they dominated the game. Augsburg was not able to break through Union's strong defense (if Augsburg is not able, how Bielefeld should be able?) and they were chanceless. Then they scored a very, very funny goal from 53m (!!) distance. A catastrophal mistake of Union's goalkeeper Jan Glinker. Then Augsburg scored the 2:1 in the 93th minut, this win was so undeserved.
No way, Union will lose in Bielefeld. Union is the much better team with more potential, their past performances were great while Bielefeld's young team is under immense pressure. I will have a huge bet on Union Berlin because the odds are a joke.

Union Berlin (+0) @2.08 (PinnacleSports) with 6/10

(Original I played 2.29 on early market, massive drop. I think value is gone but maybe you can get higher odds or you can take it live.)

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30.10.2010: Karlsruher SC vs. 1860 Munich

I just see too clear differences beetween this two teams and I can not understand for which reason the hosts should be favourite in this match. It's not just that 1860 is the better team but Karlsruher faces up a grave crisis.
Karlsruher's recent performances were disastrous and in their current form they are a relegation canidate. Of course Karlsruher has enough potential to get a safe midfield position but at the moment they are so poor and I don't know for which reason their crisis should end today. Any way, it is a final for Karlsruher's coach Markus Schupp. Actually Schupp would have been suspended several months ago but Karlsruher is short of money and they did not have enough money to pay indemnity payments for him. But according to the latest performances, everyone knows that Schupp will be suspended today if his team won't improve clearly. However, two important strikers are back to the squad after injuries (Fink and Chrisantus). But Karlsruher's recent performances were incredible bad, the young team was overchallenged and the passing game did not work well anymore.
Two weeks ago when they played at home against Bochum, the young team admitted complete failure. Bochum is not a top team at the moment and not better than 1860 but Bochum was clearly superior. Last weekend they went the extra mile when they played so incredible poor away in Duisburg (3:0). Their porous defence was always their biggest problem but meanwhile their offensive is in a very bad shape also.
So I can not see anything what should point to an improvement. Quite the contrary, the pressure will be massive today and under pressure Karlsruher usually failed in the past.

1860 faces up a downtrend also. After good start there were a couple of bad happenings for them. For example they underwent a contract penalty which made for two points less for them. Or the curious story about their player Savio Nsereko who stayed away of train for two weeks and nobody knew where he was. Or the selling of their 17 years old talent Moritz Leitner to Borussia Dortmund. But nevertheless their situation is still much better than Karlsruher's one.
Last weekend they were held to a goalless draw against poor Arminia Bielefeld because they were not able to break Bielefelds defense. During the week 1860 was defeated by 1. Bundesliga team FC Cologne in the "DFB cup" by 3:0. But 1860 performed quite well in Cologne and over 60 minuts 1860 was the better team. They showed that defending and fast counterattacking away is recently one of their new strengths. In the end Cologne scored three times but nevertheless 1860's performance was quite good and with a similarly performance they should have no problems with beating Karlsruher. However, Ignjovski and Aigner will be out for 1860 but Halfar recently substituted Aigner very well (Aigner wasn't good at last anyway) and as well Ignjovski recently had a lack of form.

Anyhow this initial situation remembers me a bit to the situation two weeks ago when Karlsruher hosted against VfL Bochum (back then Bochum was in a small crisis also). Karlsruher asked them to score several times and thus Bochum had no problems with taking three points from Karlsruher. I can't see Karlsruher SC finishing their crisis today, it will be the last game of Markus Schupp, I am pretty sure. I like the +0 odds for the visitors.

1860 Munich (+0) @2.02 (PinnacleSports) with 4/10

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31.10.2010: Rot-Weiss Oberhausen vs. FC Augsburg

I think the skill gap beetween this two sides is too huge, therefore I can't miss out these odds. Unfortunately odds on Augsburg dropped on the early market but there is still enough value, hence it worths a bet here.

Oberhausen's injury crisis is massive and I underpriced the missings. Several vital players are out: Lamidi, Gordon, Pappas, Borutzki, Schlieter, Bahcecioglu, Kruse and Tullberg. Lamidi is their best scorer and the key player in the offensive. Gordon played very decent at last but two weeks ago he sustained a cruciate rupture. His missing was very grave against Aue and Klinger was not able to replace him. We will probably see this lineup:

Pirson - Petersch, Reichert, Miletic, Hergesell - Landers, Klinger, Kaya, Schmidtgal - Krontiris, Schönfeld

Oberhausen has a lack of wing defenders, therefore Petersch has to play on the right side. But actually Petersch is not a defender by trade and his bad defense play resulted in a penalty for Aue on Monday (Oberhausen lost by 2:0). Oberhausen's offensive has a lack of vigour, on Monday Oberhausen had nearly not any mentionable opportunity. They played very poor in Aue and their coach said that it was a "relapse in the Stone Age". Their passing game was disastrous and Oberhausen was not able to replace their injured players well enough.

Augsburg is back on the track. They had a bad run in the league and they played really bad and spiritless. Then they were victorious (2:1) against Union Berlin on last matchday but this win was absolutely undeserved. However, it was something like a turning point for them. On Tuesday they achieved a 4:2 victory away in Greuther Furth in the "DFB cup". In the beginning they had some problems against strong Greuther but in the end they showed off their ability. Of course it was quite important for their self-confidence.
In addition the regulars de Jong and Traore will be back in the team.

What kind of game will we see? Oberhausen will defend deep and they will try to hit Augsburg on the break. But I am pretty sure that Augsburg will be strong enough to break through Oberhausens defense - but the main reason for my bet is that the quality gap beetween these two teams is too massive.

FC Augsburg (-0.25) @1.97 (PinnacleSports) with 4/10

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Hi,

I took Duisburg (+0) @1.92 last night but odds dropped massive. To be honest I can't recommend it at the current price. But maybe you can take it live. But current odds are still ok, -0.25 has slightly value.

01.11.2010: Fortuna Dusseldorf vs. Duisburg

[SIZE=\"3\"]A hot derby match in Dusseldorf awaits us today evening. While Dusseldorf\'s season was catastrophal so far, Duisburg is the biggest suprise team in Germany II so far and their young team showed very decent performances at last.

Dusseldorf underachieved so far but it\'s not a suprise. The 4th position of last season was unrepeatable, the change in the summer was too grave. The new team is patently worse than their old team. Nevertheless they are still a good fighting home side and is not easy to beat them in their own stadium. But the main problem is that their offensive has no power and they are not able to break through a defense at home. Against Hertha Berlin (1:2), 1860 Munich (1:2) and Bochum (0:1) they had problems with creating opportunities. However, they beat Augsburg (1:0) two weeks ago but Augsburg played disastrous back then and Dusseldorf was very, very lucky. Last weekend Dusseldorf suffered another setback when they lost away in Paderborn (3:0). The defense was full of holes and Dusseldorf was harmless in the offensive.

Duisburg is the contrary. The young team plays amazing at the moment and everyone can see that this team has immense potential. Their success was not due to luck, all of their wins were completely deserved. Duisburg has a perfect mix of a strong defence and a powerful offensive. I can\'t see Duisburg having any problems with keeping a clean sheet in Dusseldorf. Moreover Duisburg will travel to Dusseldorf with a ton of self-confidence at the back, due to their recently fantastic streak.
The only disadvantage for Duisburg could be that offensive player Baljak is doubtful for them. It would be a disadvantage for them but even without him I see Duisburg much stronger than Dusseldorf.

Any way, what kind of game will we see in ESPIRIT-Arena tonight? Crucial will be that Dusseldorf\'s offensive has not enough power to break Duisburgs good defence while Duisburg will get some opportunities to hit Dusseldorf on the break.
But my main reason for this bet is that we will see two teams with completely different strengths. Dusseldorf (16th) performed very bad so far and their only victories were lucky and undeserved, while Duisburg (3rd) recently showed fantastic football. Duisburg is simply much, much stronger. Hence I can\'t comprehend for which reason this game should be that close. Dusseldorf is nothing more than a bad relegation battler while Duisburg is a promotion favourite. [/SIZE][SIZE=\"4\"]

MSV Duisburg (-0.25) @2.05 (188bet) with 3/10[/SIZE]

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Solid weekend .. Duisburg pick was extreme unlucky in the end, Dusseldorf had no opportunity in the whole match but Duisburg conceded a late and stupid own goal.

Greuther Furth (-0.5) @1.86 (PinnacleSports) with 5/10 | -5u

Union Berlin (+0) @2.08(PinnacleSports) with 6/10 | +6.48u

1860 Munich (+0) @2.02 (PinnacleSports) with 4/10 | +4.08u

FC Augsburg (-0.25) @1.97 (PinnacleSports) with 4/10 | +3.88u

MSV Duisburg (-0.25) @2.05 (188bet) with 3/10 | -3u

See you next weekend.