Germany, 22.10. - 25.10.

[DSQUAREDLOL]

22.10.2010: VfL Osnabruck vs. Energie Cottbus

I could not believe these odds when I saw them. I decided to take them on early market because I expect a massive drop on matchday.
But let's go into the game. Osnabruck is really bad, they will struggle against relegation until the last matchday. Only Bielefeld is still worse than Osnabruck but I see Osnabruck on the same level with Ingolstadt. Osnabruck will host this match with three defeats at the back and now, of all times strong Cottbus will play against them.
Osnabrucks performance in Furth (3:0 defeat) was disastrous, I would even go so far as to say that it was one of the poorest performances I have seen in this season. The goalkeeper blundered a few times and the whole defense was bad, to say nothing of their offensive. Now you will argue that Osnabruck is a team with two different faces away and at home and of course I think that they will improve their performance against Cottbus, but I can not believe that they will suddenly start defending well and playing good soccer. The offensive was incredible weak and harmless. Osnabruck is solid at home with 2-0-2.
The first game was against Duisburg, a side which has a similiar strength like Cottbus. Osnabruck was inferior, as a consequence they lost by 1:3. Then they showed a strong performance against Aue at home and they won by 3:2. But Aue is overrated and nothing more than a promoted team, so don't compare Aue with Cottbus. Then Osnabruck beat poor travellers from Union Berlin by 4:1 but the result has nearly nothing to do with the course of the game. It was one of these strange September games and Berlin was nearly equal but Osnabruck had a fantastic conversion of chances (but that has a lot to do with luck). However, Osnabruck could not convince me, they are a bad team and they will have big problems in Bundesliga 2.
Cottbus is the exact opposite, Cottbus is a hot promotion canidate this year and their offensive power is well-known. Of course, Cottbus has a lack of good defense players and their defense is a problem, but Osnabruck's offensive is in a too bad form to take advantage of it. Last weekend Cottbus won at home by 3:1 against Paderborn, absolutely deserved and sovereign. Furthermore Cottbus is not a weak away side or something like that. They started with two consecutive away victories, but three weeks ago they lost away against Frankfurt. But first of all, it is not a shame to lose in Frankfurt because Frankfurt is a very strong home side. And moreover you have to keep in mind that Cottbus outplayed Frankfurt in the first half time although top scorer Petersen was out. Cottbus was 2:0 in lead and everything seemed like an easily away victory but they stopped playing in the second half time. Hence Frankfurt striked back and won by 3:2 but it was a one-time greenhorn mistake. But all in all Cottbus was much better and it would have been an easily away win.
Cottbus will be able to travel to Osnabruck with the full squad, another hot story could be that Cottbus' coach Pele Wollitz was coach in Osnabruck for several years and he still knows the team very well. All in all I see one class difference beetween these teams, a clear relegation canidate against a clear promotion canidate with full squad. Hence -0.25 at these pretty high odds are too nice to miss them out, -0.25 @1.85 would be a fair price.

Energie Cottbus (-0.25) @2.08 (188bet) with 4/10

Personally I could get 2.19 last night, massive odds drop today. But I expect odds will still drop more on matchday.

[mij0sim]

DS,what do you think,can Cottbuss to score at least two goals?They have good attack,and if you say its pretty big difference in class,that shouldnt be problem.Odds are very tempiting.

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Yes, of course. I even expect a clear victory, maybe I will bet a few bucks on -1.5 also. Osnabruck's offensive was poor at last but at home they play much better. I think a 2:3/2:4/1:3 is very possible.

[mij0sim]

OK,thanks mate.I will go on Cottbuss to score two or more with confidence after your words.GL

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Cottbus with a shit performance today .. sorry mate! For today it will be better.

23.10.2010: Ingolstadt vs. Frankfurt

A pretty good initial situation for FSV Frankfurt in Ingolstadt. Frankfurts biggest strength is to defend deep and to push forward very fast through their fast offensiv players. Counterattacks are their strength. They proved it most convincing in Karlsruhe several weeks ago when they defended in a deep way and when they breaked very fast. And exactly that might well be so today. Ingolstadt will be forced to make the running at home because they need three points very urgently but that will play into Frankfurts hands.
However, Ingolstadt recently showed appealing performances. The defeat in Aachen had a lot to do with misfortune but the strong performance of Ingolstadt was due to Aachens strange inactivity. And although Aachen played very bad, Ingolstadt was not able to create a couple of good opportunities. Their only goal was a gift of Aachen's goalkeeper. A good example why I can not see Ingolstadt taking three points today was the game at home against Karlsruhe. Ingolstadt wasn't technical skilled enough. Too many off-target shots from long range and so on. The team is under pressure, they urgently need a home victory. Ingolstadt's coach Wiesinger is under pressure as well, another defeat would probably mean his end in Ingolstadt.
And as abovementioned, that will play into Frankfurt's hands. Their recent away performances were quite strong. In Karlsruhe they won by 2:0 and they showed their fast counter attacks and even in Furth (1:0 for Furth) they were good also and they had some fantastic chances back then. Moreover FSV improves week for week. On Saturday they showed a strong performance against top team Hertha Berlin but they lost close by 0:1 through a very late goal of Adrian Ramos.
I can not see being Ingolstadt favourite in this match, however. Frankfurt is the better team and they are good travellers, Ingolstadt was not very good at home so far and so I think that Frankfurt will get something from Ingolstadt.

FSV Frankfurt (+0.25) @1.95 (SBOBET) with 4/10

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Oha, very hard odds smash tonight! I took 1.88 several hours ago, now odds fall -0.23.
Asians down to 1.65, William Hill (European) still offers 1.80. But I can not recommend this pick anymore at current Asian price. Maybe odds will raise or you can take it live or you can take it with any European.

24.10.2010: SC Paderborn vs. Fortuna Dusseldorf

I can\'t understand the +0/-0 line in this match because I think that Paderborn is some better and while Paderborn is strong at home, Dusseldorf is well-known as a poor away team. Another crucial factor is that Dusseldorf admittedly won two times in a row but both wins were undeserved and benefited from doubtful referee decisions. Dusseldorf started with six consecutive defeats but then they finished their crisis with a 3:2 victory away against the strong hosts VfL Osnabruck. But as I mentioned it above, it was lucky and they had luck with referee decisions and they benefitted from Osnabrucks bad conversion of chances. Then they beat promotion favourite Augsburg at home by 1:0 but again it was very lucky. Augsburg was heading towards a crisis and Augsburg would have deserve a point at least. But both victories were not strong, however. Dusseldorf is not a good team and they will struggle against relegation until the last matchday.
Paderborn is a below-average team also but their defense is much better. That could be a crucial factor. Paderborn recently showed good performances, the 3:1 at home against poor Bielefeld was richly deserved. Last Sunday they were beaten away by Energie Cottbus (3:1) but Cottbus is one class stronger and Paderborn was good at all, the sole problem was the fact that they conceded a goal after 23 seconds. Thus, the game was decided after a few seconds and Paderborn could not convert their opportunities. But Paderborn is in an appealing form and their recent performances convinced me much more than Dusseldorf\'s ones.
A very solid home team in a good form against a poor away team which recently had more luck than judgement. Not really I can see Dusseldorf getting anything from Paderborn, an away win is far away.

Padeborn (+0) @1.80 (William Hill) with 5/10

[DSQUAREDLOL]

25.10.2010: Erzgebirge Aue - RW Oberhausen

A clash beetween two traditional worker clubs which were unfancied in the beginning of the season but both teams could convince with their fantastic defenses and their fast counter attacks. Both teams have a very similar playing philosophy, trying to concede now goal against and reaching success through fast counter attacks. Moreover both teams are very strong through set pieces.
The crucial factor why I back the visitors is that it is the first time in this season that Aue is fancied. Before it Aue was always unfancied, they could defend very deep and they tried to hit their oponents on the break. That worked very well for them so far, having less ball possession but setting up fast counter-attacks. But today will be completely different. Aue will be forced to make the running and they won't get any counter opportunities. And Aue is just a below-average team and I can't see them breaking through Oberhausens strong defense.
Of course Aue is a strong home team and their 3-0-0 run is impressive but we have to consider each single game. Why Aue won the three games? In all three home games Aue were underdogs against strong teams. They won vs. Bochum (1:0), vs. Duisburg (1:0) and vs. Augsburg (3:2) but all three games had the same courses of the games. The visitors made the running but they foundered on Aue's strong defense respectively their fantastic goalkeeper Martin Männel. Then Aue had enough space for setting up several counter-attacks and they used at least one of it. Another strong point are their corners, they scored several times through set-ups. But I can not see them scoring through set-ups against Oberhausen because Oberhausen has a couple of tall defenders and they are not prone to set-pieces.
It is a perfect situation for Oberhausen, they are underdogs against a team which has problems with breaking through good defenses and they will have enough space for counter-attacks.
The only problem I see is that Oberhausen has some injuries, among others midfield regular Daniel Gordon has a cruciate rupture. But Oberhausen proved in the past that they are able to replace injured players.
Any way, we will see the two teams with the best ball-winning results, both teams live off their high ball-winning ability and their strong defenses. We will see a hot but boring fight with relatively little opportunities. I see a pretty high chance that Oberhausens keeps a clean sheet, important for my pick is that Aue won't score early. Under bets could be fine choices here also, but at the moment I try to avoid over/under bets.

RW Oberhausen (+0.25) @2.29 (IBCbet) with 3/10

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Breakeven weekend, lets forget it and lets go on next weekend.


Energie Cottbus (-0.25) @2.08 (188bet) with 4/10 |- 4u

FSV Frankfurt (+0.25) @1.95 (SBOBET) with 4/10 | +3.68 u


Padeborn (+0) @1.80 (William Hill) with 5/10 | +4 u


RW Oberhausen (+0.25) @2.29 (IBCbet) with 3/10 |- 3u


See you next weekend.