Germany, 15.10. - 18.10.

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Good post summ .. good to see that I agree with you in most games, let's see.

15.10.2010: Union Berlin - Erzgebirge Aue

Having a bet on the 15th placed team against the 3rd placed team? Yeah. Union Berlin had a very difficult start, coordination in the defense was bad and their offensive had no vigorous effect. But the watershed event was the derby against Hertha when Union achieved a strong 1:1. Union began to play with passion, the offensive was much stronger and the defensive was quite solid. Evidently Union took heart from this game. However they lost 4:1 away in Osnabruck a few days later but the result was a complete joke. Union was equal strong but Osnabruck converted each of their opportunities. After that Union showed their strongest performance of the whole season when they achieved a fantastic 2:0 home victory against strong Duisburg. I was so impressed by their mix of a good offensive and a safe defense. Even some more goals were possible but Union was some unlucky in using opportunities. One weekend later Union lost away in Munich against 1860 by 1:0 but Union had some missings and again they were equal strong. A draw for them would have been deserved. The uptrend is cleary recognizable, however.

Nevertheless Union Berlins playmaker Santi Kolk is injured and hence he won't be able to play but Union Berlin has a couple of quality players in the midfield (Thomik, Brunnemann, Mattuschka, etc) and they learnt to compensate missings in the past weeks. Anyhow Union Berlin's quality is high enough to achieve a safe midfield position this year, their start was some unlucky but they are of course strong enough to avoid the relegation. Union Berlins coach Uwe Neuhaus has the same point of view: In the press conference he made clear that Union is the better team in terms of technique.

Aue is the opposite of Berlin. Not particularly strong but very lucky in the past few games in terms of referee decisions and converting opportunities. To put it in a nutshell they are the most overrated team of this season. The best example was their 3:2 victory against Augsburg two weeks ago. Being clearly inferior and 0:1 behind but the referee donated them a ridiculous penalty and seconds after it they scored through a corner and suddenly it was 2:1.

But everyone who has notion of football saw that it is easy to break through their defense: raising up the tempo, fast attacks and especially that is the strength of Union Berlin in this year. Another deciding fact is that Curri will be out for Aue. He is the soul of his team and the focal point of each of Aue's attacks. His missing is obviously very grave, I read in Aue's fan forum and fans mentioned that it will be very difficult without him.

I am sure that Aue's amazing run will end in Berlin. I will take the -0.25 AHC on Berlin, an away victory is impossible.

Union Berlin (-0.25) @1.92 (188bet) with 4/10

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16.10.2010: Karlsruher SC - VfL Bochum

I really can not see Karlsruhe being favourite in this clash. Karlsruhe is very inconstant so far. That is because Karlsruhes team is quite young, they have some injury concerns and their defense is too weak. Speaking of their defense, regular defender Sebastian Langkamp is injured and therefore not available, unexperienced 22-years old Müller will substitute him. Furthermore their important midfield regular Staffeldt is still very doubtful and he could not train among the week but all these injuries are not the main reasons for my choice. Karlsruhe is simply too prone to fast counter attacks because their defense often does not exist on the pitch. The perfect example for it was the 0:2 defeat at home against FSV Frankfurt. Karlsruhe tried to press forward, Frankfurt's defense was strong enough to avert the danger and then Frankfurt hit hosts on the break. Similar to it was the game against Paderborn when Karlsruhe admittedly won (2:1) but totally undeserved through a gift penalty in the injury time and before a funny own goal. Karlsruhe had a tough time of it with breaking Paderborns defense and Paderborn hit them on the break. The sole deserved home victory was against Aachen on 29th August but it was due to bad defending by Aachen.
In any case Karlsruhe is good against teams with bad defenses but they might get some problems against Bochum. Bochums defense improved in the past weeks from game to game but principally since coach Funkel found the best defense formation. He started the season with Phillip Heerwagen as goalkeeper and with the central defense which consists of Maltritz and Mavraj/Yahia. It was a debacle, Maltritz was overchallenged and Heerwagen decided several games with his mistakes. Meanwhile Funkel plays with Luthe as goalkeeper (who is much, much better than Heerwagen) and with the central defense duo Yahia and Mavraj. By the way, some days ago the Algerian international player Yahia renewed his contract with VfL Bochum. Anyway Bochums defense was much more solid in the last few games, a good example was the 1:0 victory in Dusseldorf when they were able to protect an early lead to the end. Last matchday Bochum lost at home against currently very strong Greuther Furth but the reason for it was simple, making the running at home is not Bochum's strength to be honest. Moreover the sceptical home crowd is rather a disadvantage than an advantage for Bochum.
To sum up, I can not see Karlsruhe taking three points from this game. Actually Bochum has more quality and at the moment Bochum is stronger away than at home.

VfL Bochum (+0.25) @1.90 (SBObet) with 5/10

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17.10.2010: Alemannia Aachen - Ingolstadt

I am sure that we will see a clear home victory in this match. After a difficult start, Alemannia Aachen's young team has finally arrived in this season. This year Aachen stands for fast and passional offensive soccer. Their young offensive players like Stieber (22), Uludag (19), Arslan (20) and Höger (21) are technical high skilled and their leader and best scorer Auer is finally back after his injury. He is the linchpin of Aachens team. Aachens latest home performances were amazing but they often had some misfortune. For example on first matchday when they played at home against Union Berlin, they had so much opportunities but they only tied 2:2. Or against Energie Cottbus when they lost 2:3 at home. They were 2:1 in front, had a couple of big opportunities to extend their lead but they hit the post several times and within three minuts Cottbus scored twice and suddenly Aachen lost 2:3. Two weeks ago Aachen achieved a fantastic 0:0 against top class team Hertha Berlin. Of course the game versus Ingolstadt will be completely different but I think that this draw increased their self-confidence. At the moment Aachen shows fresh offensive play, they are on fire and in terms of offensive Aachen is one of the best teams of the whole league.
I was very wrong about Ingolstadt, I thought that they would have potential but next to Bielefeld they are the worst team of the 2. Bundesliga. The way things are going Ingolstadt unlearned playing good soccer since their promotion. Ingolstadt has a porous defence and in terms of technique they are very weak also. Moreover I have a feeling that this team is a bit spiritless in marked contrast to Aachen. Last Friday they lost in a friendly match against 3rd league team FC Heidenheim by 1:3 and Ingolstadts coach Wiesinger said that he was totally disappointed with the heartless performance of his team.
Furthermore Ingolstadts offensive regular Futacs and midfield regular Mölzl will be both out. Futacs, because he is suspended and Mölzl because he has an ankle joint fracture.
All in all we will see hosts who are on fire with big offensive potential against a team with a porous defence and some missing players. Anything but a clear home victory would be a big, big suprise to me.

Aachen (-0.75) @1.94 (188bet) with 5/10

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17.10.2010: Oberhausen - 1860

I think it worths a bet on the away team here. In my last few previews I said a lot about Oberhausen and their playing philosophy and I do not want to repeat everything. Oberhausen is a team which profits from their unity and their ball-winning ability. Moreover their strength is to defend and to set up counter-attacks. But their biggest problem is that the key figure of their counter-attacking play Moses Lamidi (best goalscorer) teared a muscle, hence he won't be able to play. Regular defender Pappas is injured also. Another crucial factor could be the fact that a flu epidemic circulated in the past week, thus many players were down with influenza and they could not train as much as they wanted.
By the way, the 3:0 derby defeat away in Duisburg on last matchday was a heavy setback after their strong start although they were not bad in Duisburg but some unlucky. Anyway Oberhausen won three of their three home fixtures so far. But for example against Osnabruck (three weeks ago) Oberhausen had some big problems with creating opportunities. In the end they admittedly used one of their very few opportunities and won by 1:0 but Osnabruck are poor travellers.
1860 falls into a different category, they are on fire and they will travel to Oberhausen with two consecutive victories at the back. In terms of technique 1860 is a very strong team but their biggest problems is their defense. Their defense is no way bad but if they play away against teams with strong offensives, 1860 experience difficulties. But exactly this is not really the strength of Oberhausen. I know 1860's team well enough to say that the key to success against them is a strong offensives which presses forward very fast. But Oberhausens playing philosophy is very oberservant and defensive and that might lead to problems for them.
All in all I really can not see Oberhausen achieving the fourth consecutive home victory. The chance for the away victory is significantly higher.

1860 (+0) @1.92 (188bet) with 4/10

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18.10.2010: Bielefeld - Duisburg

Biggest odd gift of the whole 2. Bundesliga season so far!
In my opinion these odds for an away victory are pure value and odds are completely set wrong here. Correct line would be +0.5/-0.5. Actually I sympathize with Bielefeld so do not take me wrong.

Probably you associate with Bielefeld a team which fluctuates beetween the 1. and the 2. Bundesliga but situation in this year is totally different. Next to Ingolstadt Bielefeld is the first candidate for relegation this year. Bielefeld is complete bankrupt, it was a big suprise that they even obtained the license. Bielefeld lost nearly each player, nearly nobody from last year is still part of the team. Now the team consists of some young players (18-20) without any 2. Bundesliga quality and the old leader Oliver Neuville (37 years) who even played in the World Cup final 2002. But Neuville is too old, he was a world class player once but meanwhile he is not able anymore to tie in with his performances from the past years.
Bielefelds new coach Christian Ziege became a joke figure in the past weeks. Everyone sees that he is not adapted for this job. Actually the club wants to fire Ziege but they do not have enough money and hence Ziege will continue being coach of Bielefeld.
For the fans the only question for this game is how clear Arminia will lose. A draw would be fantastic for them. But let's take a look at Arminia Bielefelds results of the past games. They lost six times and in each game absolute deserved. One time they won (1:0 at home against Ingolstadt) but with fortune, moreover Ingolstadt was very poor back then.
Another fact is that some regulars are doubtful for this game and they could not train among the week (including best player Heidigner, leader Neuville, etc).

Duisburg is the exact opposite. As well Duisburg is nearly bankrupt but as Bielefeld did everything wrong they could, Duisburg did everything right they could. For me personally they are the biggest suprise so far - not Aue, not Furth but them. No way I thought that they would play that fantastic. Their fresh offensive play impressed me. They have some weak points in the defense but they will have some say concerning promotion this year.
Maybe you will argue that Duisburg consecutive lost twice away. But in Aue their defeat was misfortune and due to two doubtful sending-offs. In Berlin they did not play good BUT Berlin showed their strongest season performance, they simply played amazing.

All in one a home victory is patently not possible here. Bielefelds players would have to have a perfect day while Duisburg would have to have a black day. My sole explanation for these odds is that odds still base on Bielefelds name but obviously the market does not know anything about Bielefelds capability this year.

Duisburg (+0) @1.80 (188bet) with 9/10

Rgds,
DSQ

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Massive drop on Dusseldorf, suprises me a bit to be honest.

Found another value bet for today:

15.10.2010: Furth - Osnabruck

Very late bet but yesterday odds were marginal, but at this price there is simply too much value to miss it out. It has nothing to do with trying to win units back or something like that, but if I see value in one bet, why shouldn't I take it?

The odd move does suprise me a bit to be honest. But we see maybe the strongest team of whole Bundesliga 2 without any mentionable injuries which is really on fire against the poorest travellers I have seen in the whole season. ML market in Asia gives us about ~61,35% for home team's victory but I am sure that possibility is even higher.

First of all, as already mentioned in my last few previews, Furth is a team which lives from their strong defensive. It is the foundation of their success. No way I can see them conceding a goal against today while I do not believe that Osnabruck will be able to keep a clean sheet. Of course they won't be able to show their fast counterattacks today because Osnabruck will defend deep but Furth is technical skilled enough to break through a defense as we have already seen it in the past games. The key to success in Furth would be to have a pretty good defensive. That would lead to problems for Furth but Osnabrucks defense is very weak.

Osnabrucks away performances were incredible bad so far. A good example was their away game in Munich against 1860 when they lost by 3:1. They were overchallenged of 1860's strong technical skilled players. Then Osnabruck achieved a 2:2 away against promotion favourite Augsburg but it was so undeserved, really! I think they bribed the referee and some strikers of Augsburg because Augsburg had much more opportunities but they were disadvantaged by the referee several times. Usually that game had to end 4:1. It was interesting to see that Osnabruck was so overchallenged when Augsburg raised up tempo. In Oberhausen it was some different because Oberhausen's offensive is not especially good but Osnabruck showed nearly nothing and they lost by 1:0.

However, everything else but a clear home victory would be a big, big, big suprise. Furth could go top of the standings with a victory and they are really on fire. Osnabruck is a team with a bad defense and they are traditional very bad away. 2.14 odds for the -1 is definitevely too big.

Furth (-1) @2.14 (SBObet) with 4/10

[yorkieacermark2000]

Ah dsquared are you benny on bettingadivce.com, just found the site and it has word to word same comment. Doesnt seem to bad on there

[Bigkegman]

Looking at Dortmunds results they look hosed in against Koln tonight or is it just me ?

Bayern you couldn't touch with a barge pole

[yorkieacermark2000]

Alot of people are tipping Dortmund to win tonight and it to go overs Kegman, Koln are playing a 21 year old GK tonight in his debut for them.

Probable FC Koln line-up :
Varvodic,
Brecko, Geromel, Mohamad, Ehret,
Petit,
Clemens, Lanig, Matuschyk, Jajalo,
Podolski


Probable Borussia Dortmund line-up :
Weidenfeller,
Piszczek, Subotic, Hummels, Schmelzer,
S. Bender, Sahin,
Blaszczykowski, Kagawa, Grosskreutz ,
Barrios

Should be a away win

[yorkieacermark2000]

Overs and away win came in

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Originally Posted by yorkieacermark2000

Ah dsquared are you benny on bettingadivce.com, just found the site and it has word to word same comment. Doesnt seem to bad on there

Yeah, me = Benny1887.

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Good matchday all in all after poor September ..

Union Berlin (-0.25) @1.92 (188bet) with 4/10 |- 2u

Furth (-1) @2.14 (SBObet) with 4/10 | + 4.56u

VfL Bochum (+0.25) @1.90 (SBObet) with 5/10 |+ 4.4u

Aachen (-0.75) @1.94 (188bet) with 5/10 | + 2.35u

1860 (+0) @1.92 (188bet) with 5/10 | +/- 0.00u

Duisburg (+0) @1.80 (188bet) with 9/10 | + 7.20u


All in all +16.51 u .. that was so ****n important after cruel September.

[mord]

Originally Posted by DSQUAREDLOL

Good matchday all in all after poor September ..

Union Berlin (-0.25) @1.92 (188bet) with 4/10 |- 2u

Furth (-1) @2.14 (SBObet) with 4/10 | + 4.56u

VfL Bochum (+0.25) @1.90 (SBObet) with 5/10 |+ 4.4u

Aachen (-0.75) @1.94 (188bet) with 5/10 | + 2.35u

1860 (+0) @1.92 (188bet) with 5/10 | +/- 0.00u

Duisburg (+0) @1.80 (188bet) with 9/10 | + 7.20u


All in all +16.51 u .. that was so ****n important after cruel September.

briliant job mate!

[mij0sim]

Originally Posted by DSQUAREDLOL

Good matchday all in all after poor September ..

Union Berlin (-0.25) @1.92 (188bet) with 4/10 |- 2u

Furth (-1) @2.14 (SBObet) with 4/10 | + 4.56u

VfL Bochum (+0.25) @1.90 (SBObet) with 5/10 |+ 4.4u

Aachen (-0.75) @1.94 (188bet) with 5/10 | + 2.35u

1860 (+0) @1.92 (188bet) with 5/10 | +/- 0.00u

Duisburg (+0) @1.80 (188bet) with 9/10 | + 7.20u


All in all +16.51 u .. that was so ****n important after cruel September.