Germany, 01.10. - 04.10.

[DSQUAREDLOL]

After good start, September was cruel. Looking forward to do it better in October.

01.10.2010, 18:00h: MSV Duisburg vs. Rot-Weiss Oberhausen

Hot derby match in Duisburg when two traditional worker clubs will play against each other. Both teams had a very strong start in the new season and thus this game will be extra hot. Duisburg's coach Milan Sasic mentioned in the press conference that he thinks that it will be the most difficult home game for Duisburg so far - and I guess, he is right. Odds are simply absurd, of course Duisburg will be slightly favourite but those kind of games suit perfect to RWO's style of play.

Duisburg did a radical change in the summer break and to be honest I expected them to have a difficult start but I was wrong. They showed fresh offensive play and this team has a good mix of experienced and young players. They started with three consecutive home victories but every time they played against poor defensives or travellers which had a black day. Today will be different because RWO is well known for their fantastic defensive play and for their unique fighting spirit. Last weekend Duisburg showed their first very poor performance in the season when they were beaten away by 2:0 against Union Berlin. Anyone could see that Duisburg is not a top team yet and I do not see them playing for promotion this year.
But as already mentionedabove Duisburg's opponents at home were teams which were in crises (Ingolstadt, Augsburg) or teams which are poor travellers with bad defenses (1860). Another problem for hosts could be the fact that their defenders are rather tall and slow than fast while RWO has small and quick strikers like Terranova or Petersch. That implies that fast counter attacks by RWO could pose difficulties for Duisburgs defense. Moreover I would not exclude that Duisburg could be a little bit uncertrain due to the bad performance in Berlin. Duisburg's new goalkeeper David Yelldell is under big pressure because he did heavy mistakes in Berlin and fans want to see him on the substitutes bench. And you may not forget that Duisburg is a young team. Thus it is possible that they get off a black day or something like that.

Of course RWO is not a technical strong team but I think that they will achieve a good and safe midfield position this year. They are well attuned because they did not make a radical change in the summer break and that was a big advantage for them so far.
Their style of playing is easy described: Defending very deep and solid with very fast counter attacks. This strategy worked very well so far. The best example was their home game against favourite VfL Bochum. RWO defended deep, Bochum attacked and RWO outplayed them with their counter attacks. Another good example was when RWO travelled to Ingolstadt. Ingolstadt had more ball possession but they had problems against RWO's strong defense and RWO scored through counter attacks and set pieces. By the way, their set pieces are another big strength of RWO.
But RWO's best striker Moses Lamidi is out again but it won't be a problem for them. Mike Terranova is equally fast and good as Lamidi and Terranova proved his skills in the past years. First I thought that Lamidis injury could be a problem for RWO but last weekend they convinced me of the contrary. Last news were that Lamidi will travel to Duisburg and maybe he will play 20-30 minuts.

But what kind of game will I expect today? I think that we will see a hot and close derby. Duisburg's coach Sasic was right when he said that it will be Duisburg's most difficult home game. I know RWO very well and I also know that those kind of games suit perfect to them. I believe that Duisburg will have a tough time of it with scoring against RWO's strong defense. Another mentionable fact is that RWO was always fantastic against Duisburg in the past few years. And I do not know why it should be different today.
0.5 would be the fair line in this match. RWO +0.75 is a gift and of course there is much value in this bet. No way Duisburg will beat RWO with more than one goal difference and I even see high possibility for RWO to take at least a point from Duisburg.

Rot-Weiss Oberhausen (+0.75) @2.00 (188bet) with 4/10

[DSQUAREDLOL]

FT 3:0

-4u

wtf, Oberhausen was the better team in 1st half time. In 40 minuts RWO scored but for some inexplicable reason the referee did not count the goal. Duisburg scored through their first opportunity and then they scored through two counter attacks. But all in all RWO had even some more opportunities but whatever I do, I have no luck atm.

[DSQUAREDLOL]

02.10.2010, 13:00h: VfL Bochum - Greuther Furth

Top clash in Bochum beetween VfL and Greuther Furth, two teams with chances of promotion. First of all I wanna start with Bochum's lineup:

Luthe - Concha, Yahia, Mavraj, Kopplin - Dabrowski, Maric - Freier, Federico, Toski - Chong Tese

In the first few games Bochum's defense was a disaster but in the last two games their defense seemed to be more solid than before (3:1 vs. Bielefeld, 1:0 vs. Dusseldorf). But why is that? Bielefeld and Dusseldorf are the two teams from the league with the worst offensives. Let's go into the Monday game when Bochum won 1:0 in Dusseldorf. Bochum scored quite early, after it, they defended very deep. Dusseldorf's offensive is simply not good at the moment but every time if Dusseldorf raised tempo, Bochum had problems. As already mentioned in my preview from Monday, Bochum's offensive has big quality. Chong Tese is maybe the best player from the whole 2. Bundesliga, Federico is a fantastic player also like Freier and Toski. The problem is the coordination. Federico is not in a good match for his team mates and he was not able to convince at all. The same applies to Toski, too. Freier was some better on Monday but in general Bochum's offensive does not work well together so far although I see high potential.

Every time if Bochum played against stronger opponents with good offensives, they got problems. In their home game against 1860 (3:2) they had some luck and they had big problems with 1860's good offensive. Still a better example was their 0:2-home defeat against Augsburg, four weeks ago. Bochum's offensive was not good enough to put Augsburgs defense under pressure while Augsburg hit Bochum on the break two times. It is fair to say, that Bochum has no problems against poor opponents with bad offensives (Dusseldorf, Bielefeld) but if they play against stronger teams, they get big problems.

Now let's have a short look on Furth's lineup:

Grün - Schröck, Kleine, Biliskov, Prib - Pekovic - Nehrig, Haas, N. Müller - Schahin, Aleksic

Furth is a team which is able to break/counterattack in a very fast way. Furth's wing defenders Schröck and Prib have nice offensive qualities and above all Furth's best player Müller and Nehrig are good wing players, too. That is Furth's way of playing. Counterattacking fast through their quick wing players. Another big advantage could be the fact that Aleksic is a great player. He came from Serbia a few weeks ago and he has fantastic qualities and he already became the new star in Furth. Aleksic is able to win a game through a solo run or an individual action.

Let's have a short look on Furth's past results. With one exception (the game vs. Cottbus), Furth played a fantastic season so far. In Cottbus each Furth players and even their strong goalkeeper were out of it and in a catastrophal form. But well, Furth is a young team and things like that might happen.

But what course of the game will we see? A very balanced one. An important fact could be that Furth's defense is some better and I think that they will be more dangerous through their counterattacks than Bochum. This season is still very young but every time if Bochum played against stronger sides, they were troubled. If Furth will play as always, they will take one point at least but an away win is very possible, too.

Although I really like Bochum's team, they are not strong enough yet to take three points in such a top clash. Even Bochum's coach Funkel mentioned on Monday that his team is not strong enough to play for promotion yet and this is generally true. Thus I like these huge odds for the away side because game will be much more balanced than odds say.

Greuther Furth (+0.25) @2,20 with 5/10

[DSQUAREDLOL]

FT 0:2

+ 6 u

Very deserved away victory, Furth had enough opportunities to score a few more times. Referee was biggest idiot, two clear penalties for Furth were not awarded and nearly every referee decision was against Furth.
Whatever! Good to have a winning pick again at last.

[DSQUAREDLOL]

03.10.2010, 13:30h: Erzgebirge Aue - FC Augsburg

Odds are too appealing to miss them out because the skill difference in this match is higher than statistics reveal. Hosts from Aue are a promoted team and they managed it to get 13 points of the first 6 games but sometimes Aue had more luck than judgement. Each of their four victories were won by 1:0 and each time it was close and lucky. But before going detailed into these games, I will post Aue's lineup for today's match:

Männel - Schlitte, Lachheb, Paulus, Klingbeil - Schröder, Hensel - Fa. Müller, Curri, Hochscheidt - E. Kern

Aue's strength is their defense and above all their fantastic goalkeeper Martin Männel. Aue's strategy is simple but succesful: Playing very defensively-minded and scoring once through set pieces or counter attacks. Let's have a detailed look at Aue's home performances of this season:
Aue 1:0 vs. Bochum. Aue scored very early through a set-piece and they profited from Bochum's offensive problems and rainy weather.
Aue 1:0 vs. Duisburg. Duisburg's away performances in this season were not really good so far but in this match Duisburg was the better and predominant team. A problem was the fact that two Duisburg players were sent off by referee and the fact that Duisburg wasted too much opportunities all in all. But I came to the realization that Aue's defense is of course solid but conquerable.
Aue's away performances were characterized by deep defending and two times they were succesful against teams with poor offensives (Paderborn, Bielefeld). Thus they won 1:0 in Paderborn and in Bielefeld. But that is not important for today's match because Augsburgs offensive quality is clearly higher.
Aue's defensive work is characterized by unity. Whether Klingbeil or Paulus - these players are not really good. Aue's fortune was that their former opponents were poor travellers or teams with bad offensives and sometimes Aue's fortune was that the opponents wasted a couple of fantastic opportunities. But Augsburg has a lot of offensive power and that will be the crucial factor today.

Concluding a few words about Augsburg:

Jentzsch - Verhaegh, Sankoh, Kwakman, Bellinghausen - Baier, Brinkmann, Oehrl, Traore - Thurk, Rafael

First of all captain and defense chief Uwe Mohrle will be out due to injury. As well Andre Sinkala is suspended but he was so bad lastly so that it is not a weakening. As it is Augsburg's defensive will be their weak point today. But in my opinion that won't be a big problem due to Aue's observant playing style.
Augsburgs quality in the offensive is simply very high. Whether Oehrl, Traore, Rafael or Thurk. These players are top class. In general Augsburg are good travellers. When they came up away against Ingolstadt (4:1) and Bochum (2:0), they showed their fantastic offensive qualities.
But Augsburgs last performances were not good.
It began with an unlucky 2:2 at home against VfL Osnabruck. Augsburg was at least one class better but they wasted too much opportunities and Osnabruck profited by the referee. Obviously Augsburg got sudden mindset problems and they lost away in Duisburg (0:1). The problem in Duisburg was Augsburgs bad defensive against Duisburgs fantastic offensive. Last Sunday Augsburg lost at home against 1860 Munich by 1:2 and once again they had difficulties with fast attacking opponents.

But Aue's offensive is not really good and as it is Aue's philosophy is to try to hit their opponents on the break. But without pressing forward it is difficult to achieve anything against Augsburg. It will imply that Augsburg will make the running and that is Augsburgs strength. Moreover they are strong enough to score against a deep defending team because Augsburg is one of the best offensive teams of the whole 2. Bundesliga. Anyway Augsburg is simply much better and thus I think that they will get three points from Aue.

Stake some lower because I am not sure about Augsburg's mindeset after three consecutive games without a victory. But all in all skill difference should be too huge here.

FC Augsburg (-0.25) @2,13 (SBOBET) with 3/10

[DSQUAREDLOL]

3:2 FT

- 3u

Augsburg with an early lead and Aue showed nearly nothing in the first half time. Then a doubtful penalty for Aue and seconds later the 2:1 lead. All in all Augsburg was the better team but Aue simply used nearly every opportunity and thus they won today.

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Hertha Berlin - Aachen

Actually I do not like playing lines above (-1) but in this case it makes sense. If Hertha will win this game, they will win it with a few goals difference. The reasoning behind this pick is simple, Aachens defense will be overchallenged against Berlin. A 4:1 victory or something like that is very possible.

Hosts will probably start with their offensive 4-1-4-1 system:

Aerts - Lell, Hubnik, Mijatovic, Kobiashvili - Niemeyer - Rukavytsya, Domovchiyski, Raffael, Ramos - Friend

Of course Hertha is out of Aachen's class Hertha's squad has more quality than a few Bundesliga teams. Nevertheless Hertha had some problems in the defense because coordination was unideal but as already mentioned in my last few previews, it just got better and better. But Hertha's centerpiece is their fantastic offensive consisting of top class players like Raffael and Ramos. These players are able to decide games with fantastic individual actions. Critics feared that players like Raffael or Ramos won't be motivated enough for this league but Hertha's players proved doubters wrong. Especially Hertha's former home performances were brilliant. Two weeks ago Hertha beat Karlsruhe by 4:0 and they already leaded after a few seconds.
Karlsruhe and Aachen are very comparable in playing style. Both teams' defensives are the main problems but both teams have fast strikers and quality in the offensive.
Another important reason for my bet is the fact that Hertha's former home performances were characterized by passion and incredible domination. In their away games Hertha had sometimes a few problems but at home they do not show any weakness so far. Furthermore Hertha's team is very well attuned. In the first games they had still some problems but meanwhile they are in a perfect form.

Now let's proceed to Alemannia Aachen. Aachen will travel to Berlin on the back of two consecutive victories.

Hohs - Demai, Stehle, Ojangebesi, Achenbach - Kratz - Höger, Arslan, Uludag - Auer, Stieber

It is quite easy to explain Aachen and their mentality. Aachen is a team with a strong offensive and a couple of young but fast and technical skilled offensive players. Auer is a good goalgetter and Stieber is currently in a fantastic form.
Aachens biggest problem is their inexperience. They waste too many opportunities, often they play very greenly.

Aachens coach Hyballa mentioned that his team wants to show forceful and fresh offensive soccer. But their biggest problem is of course their defense. Hohs is a goalkeeper who is well known for errors and the whole back four is not good. In the past few games Aachens defeats always resulted of individual errors of the back four. Maybe you will argue that Aachen recently won two times in a row but Frankfurt and Paderborn did not show good offensive performances.

The key to success against Aachen is to press forward with a technical strong offensive. And beyond all question Hertha has a perfect offensive. I am pretty sure that Aachen will learn the hard way this evening. Another mentionable factor could be that Aachen has a few young players (Höger, Arslan, Uludag) and the big home crowd in the "Olympiastadion" could be a bit intimidating.

I really like Aachen, they play very attractive offensive soccer and I enjoy it to watch their games but Hertha is out of their league.

The ML market is giving around 65% for a home victory but I see the possibility significant higher. The question for me was if I go for -1 or -1.25 line. I decided to try the -1.25 line by the fact that Aachen has a weak defense and they are not a typical defensively-minded team. We won't see a team from Aachen which will defend extreme deep, Aachen will try to take part in the game. Another factor which militate for many home goals is the fact that Hertha showed a strong conversion of chances in the last few games.

Hertha Berlin (-1.25) @2,26 (IBCBET) with 5/10

[Carlito]

Originally Posted by DSQUAREDLOL

Hertha Berlin - Aachen

Actually I do not like playing lines above (-1) but in this case it makes sense. If Hertha will win this game, they will win it with a few goals difference. The reasoning behind this pick is simple, Aachens defense will be overchallenged against Berlin. A 4:1 victory or something like that is very possible.

Hosts will probably start with their offensive 4-1-4-1 system:

Aerts - Lell, Hubnik, Mijatovic, Kobiashvili - Niemeyer - Rukavytsya, Domovchiyski, Raffael, Ramos - Friend

Of course Hertha is out of Aachen's class Hertha's squad has more quality than a few Bundesliga teams. Nevertheless Hertha had some problems in the defense because coordination was unideal but as already mentioned in my last few previews, it just got better and better. But Hertha's centerpiece is their fantastic offensive consisting of top class players like Raffael and Ramos. These players are able to decide games with fantastic individual actions. Critics feared that players like Raffael or Ramos won't be motivated enough for this league but Hertha's players proved doubters wrong. Especially Hertha's former home performances were brilliant. Two weeks ago Hertha beat Karlsruhe by 4:0 and they already leaded after a few seconds.
Karlsruhe and Aachen are very comparable in playing style. Both teams' defensives are the main problems but both teams have fast strikers and quality in the offensive.
Another important reason for my bet is the fact that Hertha's former home performances were characterized by passion and incredible domination. In their away games Hertha had sometimes a few problems but at home they do not show any weakness so far. Furthermore Hertha's team is very well attuned. In the first games they had still some problems but meanwhile they are in a perfect form.

Now let's proceed to Alemannia Aachen. Aachen will travel to Berlin on the back of two consecutive victories.

Hohs - Demai, Stehle, Ojangebesi, Achenbach - Kratz - Höger, Arslan, Uludag - Auer, Stieber

It is quite easy to explain Aachen and their mentality. Aachen is a team with a strong offensive and a couple of young but fast and technical skilled offensive players. Auer is a good goalgetter and Stieber is currently in a fantastic form.
Aachens biggest problem is their inexperience. They waste too many opportunities, often they play very greenly.

Aachens coach Hyballa mentioned that his team wants to show forceful and fresh offensive soccer. But their biggest problem is of course their defense. Hohs is a goalkeeper who is well known for errors and the whole back four is not good. In the past few games Aachens defeats always resulted of individual errors of the back four. Maybe you will argue that Aachen recently won two times in a row but Frankfurt and Paderborn did not show good offensive performances.

The key to success against Aachen is to press forward with a technical strong offensive. And beyond all question Hertha has a perfect offensive. I am pretty sure that Aachen will learn the hard way this evening. Another mentionable factor could be that Aachen has a few young players (Höger, Arslan, Uludag) and the big home crowd in the "Olympiastadion" could be a bit intimidating.

I really like Aachen, they play very attractive offensive soccer and I enjoy it to watch their games but Hertha is out of their league.

The ML market is giving around 65% for a home victory but I see the possibility significant higher. The question for me was if I go for -1 or -1.25 line. I decided to try the -1.25 line by the fact that Aachen has a weak defense and they are not a typical defensively-minded team. We won't see a team from Aachen which will defend extreme deep, Aachen will try to take part in the game. Another factor which militate for many home goals is the fact that Hertha showed a strong conversion of chances in the last few games.

Hertha Berlin (-1.25) @2,26 (IBCBET) with 5/10

Funny incident from the game

YouTube - Busen-Wischer bei Schiri Bibiana Steinhaus (Hertha - Aachen)

YouTube - Busen-Wischer bei Schiri Bibiana Steinhaus (Hertha - Aachen)