Germany, 21.09. - 22.09.

[DSQUAREDLOL]

21.09.2010, 17:30h | 2. Bundesliga | Energie Cottbus - Greuther Furth

These odds simply include value and I do not hope to lose it as close as some picks in the past. Although I avow to be sth. like a fan of Greuther Furth, I am able to rate their games objective. And due to different reasons, I know that Furth will get something from Cottbus because that starting situation is fantastic for Furth. First of all I am going to start with different things about Cottbus:

Kirschbaum - Afriyie, Hünemeier, Brzenska, Soma - Kurth, Kruska - Adlung, Kronaveter - Petersen, Jula

Cottbus is in top 3 of this league in footballing terms. Petersen who scored 6 times in 4 games is a fantastic striker and he is on fire, the same applies to his partner Emil Jula. But in the last games Cottbus lost their touch a bit to be honest. If we resume their season until now, they were often very lucky. On first matchday they beat current poor Dusseldorf by 2:0. But given the fact that Dusseldorf wasted a couple of big opportunities, the final score might have been different. On second matchday Cottbus beat poor Bielefeld by 2:1 but skill difference was simply too big. Then Cottbus played 5:5 in a crazy game and for the first time their very poor defense was apparent. Cottbus was very early 2:0 in front due to nice attacks but then they conceded 5 goals in a row! And Karlsruhe is only an average team in this league. On Friday Cottbus achieved a lucky away win in Aachen (3:2) but they profited by Aachens carelessness with using opportunities.

To sum up Cottbus is a nice team with high offensive quality but their defense is a debacle. They play above the value at the moment and another win would be very strange. Cottbus has a young team and thus I believe that they will learn the hard way with losing against Furth. In such a top clash you need a good defense, it is not possible to attack without caring for defense in such a game. Cottbus' coach Pele Wollitz is a maniac and in interviews I feel that he went crazy. He said that they want to walk over Furth to get his players in the right mood for the game against Hertha BSC on the following weekend. Pride comes before a fall ..

Before looking out on a possible course of the game I will introduce Furth.

Grün - Schröck, Kleine, Biliskov, Prib - Pekovic - Nehrig, Haas, N. Müller - Aleksic, Schahin

Furth success bases on their fast attacks and their fast counter attacks. Furth operates with deep forward passes and they profit from their fantastic wing strikers. Above all Nicolai Muller is on fire at the moment, he will exploit Cottbus' weak defense. Furths best striker Chris Nothe is injured but Furth bought a nice substitute: Danijel Aleksic. He is a young talent from Serbia and almost whole Europe wanted to sign him. I saw him two times now and he is really a fantastic striker. Last Friday he immediately scored against FSV Frankfurt through a wonder goal. Nothe was in a bad form at last anyway, hence I think that it is not a negative point for Furth.

Let's talk about Furths weak point. I do not like their central defence. It is complaining on a high level but as well Kleine as Biliskov are both too slow. Ok, team captain Kleine did a nice job so far but Biliskov is a factor of uncertain. He is known for big mistakes in the defense and I think he will get some problems against Petersen. Nevertheless Furths central defence is very experienced and much better than Cottbus' defense. I doubt that Furth will keep a clean sheet but they will be more dangerous for Cottbus with their feared counter attacks. Another point is that Furths goalkeeper Grün is the best goalkeeper of the league as far as I can see. His incredible saves rescue Furths ass many times in the past.

Asian market says that Cottbus is clear favourite in this top clash but it is simply wrong. Of course Cottbus can take 3 points from this game but it is very doubtful because they play above value for the past weeks.

Since I know soccer, I know that these kind of games shall be finally settled through the defense. Both teams are similiar but Furths team is more experienced and more seasoned. Cottbus' young team will be under pressure (but less fans can be expected). They will attack from the first minut on. If Furth won't concede an early goal against, they will show their counter attack skills and they will profit by the safer defense. If Cottbus defense will operated with such a poor defense performance, they will get big, big problems against Furth.

Of course I take the +0.25 line here because it makes much more sense. An away win is possible here and Furth wants to get 3 points, too.

Greuther Furth (+0.25) @2,05 (SBOBET), 5/10

[DSQUAREDLOL]

2:0 FT

- 5 u

Really strange game, actually both teams showed nothing. Don't know why Furth did not play. Sry, it seems like my downswing will never end.

[Bigkegman]

why are Bayern struggling at the moment - any idea ?

they are 1-0 down at HT tonight and Hoffenheim hit the crossbar as well

[Bigkegman]

Bayern score an injury time winner

[mij0sim]

Originally Posted by Bigkegman

Bayern score an injury time winner

I think it was offside,but didnt saw the best.Was it ?

[DSQUAREDLOL]

It was offside .. even two times, lol .. damn lucky Bayern.

[DSQUAREDLOL]

22.09.2010 | 2. Bundesliga | FC Ingolstadt - Fortuna Dusseldorf

This preview will be some shorter due to pressure of time but trust me, it is very deliberate. I was deceived in Ingolstadt and I was really wrong about them. All things considered Ingolstadt is a team with potential and some good individual players but they do not work as a team. In their first two games Ingolstadt showed poor defense performances but some good rudiments of offensive. By now their offensive does not show anything, too. I watched Ingolstadts game against Bielefeld over 90 minuts and it was sheer torment. To be honest Ingolstadts defense arranged it so that Bielefeld had hardly any opportunities but Ingolstadt had no goal scoring opportunity in the whole 90 minuts. They simply showed nothing, they played heartless and their actually good goalkeeper Kirschstein is in a catastrophal mood at the moment. It is only a matter of time before Ingolstadt's coach Wiesinger will be suspended.

Wiesinger has one big problem. While he trains Ingolstadt, he must always go to Cologne because he has to get his coaching certificate. While he is in Cologne, his assistant coach has to train with the team. That is very stressful of course ..

Well, before writing about Fortuna Dusseldorf, let's have a short look into their past results. On first matchday they lost at home by 1:4 against promotion favourite Augsburg. One week later they lost 1:4 in Duisburg. In both games there defensive was catastrophal. Hence they bought Marvin Matip as a new defense boss. He succeeded in stabilising their defense a little bit but anyway they lost their next home game against deep defeding RWo. Ingolstadt had no idea to break RWOs defense and they conceded a few goals through set pieces. On Sunday Ingolstadt lost away by 1:0 in Bielefeld. Both teams are very, very poor but I was shocked about Ingolstadts strategy to show nothing in the offensive while defending that deep. Bielefelds opportunities were rare but they were able to use one of it. I realized that the team is not behind Wiesinger anymore. In interviews Wiesinger speaks in rallying calls and I think that even him knows that his days are numbered in Ingolstadt ..

By the way, I do not see a really home advantage. Ingolstadt is a team without tradition and fans, the less fans are spoiled by success and they whistle if Ingolstadt does not play good enough.

Dusseldorf is different. Their bad start was not a big suprise to me. As mentioned a few times before, they sold too many key players. But the team has potential to achieve a safe midfield position. As opposed to Ingolstadt, Dusseldorf is still alive. They struggled at home against 1860 and after being 1:0 in front, they lost by conceding two stupid goal against through set pieces.

But the team has potential. On first matchday they lost away in Cottbus by 2:0 but Dusseldorf was the team with better opportunities. Dusseldorf wasted all of them. Then they lost at home against Hertha BSC (another top team) by 1:2 but the defeat was some unlucky, Dusseldorf might deserve a point back then. After it, Dusseldorf lost away in Frankfurt by 1:0 but they were put at a disadvantage due to some doubtful referee decisions and Dusseldorf might deserve a point another time. About the 1860 game, I already said something above. Dusseldorf lost four times consecutive but none of their defeats were deserved.

Ingolstadt played heart- and spiritless at last while Dusseldorf struggled. Dusseldorfs team has much, much more potential and I see them achieving a safe midfield position late in the season.

And now a very interesting fact: Dusseldorf is the team with the most shots in the whole 2. Bundesliga! It is a matter of time until Dusseldorf will use their opportunities. In oppose to Ingolstadt, I do not see them having a disposition problem. I simply can not imagine that Ingolstadt will take 3 points from this game.

Dusseldorf (+0) @2.11 (188BET), 6/10

[DSQUAREDLOL]

22.09.2010 | 2. Bundesliga | Duisburg - Augsburg

I have to be fast with this preview due to time pressure. Duisburg is overrated. Of course their results were really nice so far and they have a strong offensive but on long-term, I see them playing in the safe midfield but not for promotion. Another important reason for my bet is the fact that Duisburgs regular central defenders are out. Due to their small squad, Duisburg has problems with subsistuting their suspended defenders Bruno Soares and Daniel Reiche. Both were the basis for Duisburgs success fo far and Duisburgs very young team will have problems without them in the top game against Augsburg.

In the following lines I will first of all try to explain you why I am of the opinion, that Duisburg is some overrated. The first two games Duisburg won against two teams which came from the 3. Liga: Osnabruck (3:1) and Ingolstadt (4:1). Both teams are well-known for their bad defenses, above all Ingolstadt. Duisburg could display their offensive strength and Osnabruck/Ingolstadt did not put Duisburgs defense under any pressure. Then Duisburg won at home versus 1860. But 1860 are traditional very poor travellers with a bad defense. One more time Duisburg could exploit the defense weakness of their opponents. On Sunday Duisburg had to travel to Erzgebirge Aue (a strong home side with good defense) and Aue could defeat Duisburg. For the first time Duisburg was not benefited by their opponents poor defense. Duisburg showed that they are simply an average and unexperienced team.

Although I was very sceptical about Augsburg and their skills in the beginning of the season, they convinced me of the contrary. Next to Hertha, Augsburg is the best team of whole Germany II. I really delighted the fact that Augsburg makes no difference beetween home and away games. Even in away games the attack from the first minut on. And exactly this will be the key to success against Duisburg. On Sunday Augsburg played only 2:2 against Osnabruck but the result was a bad joke. Augsburg was at least one class better but they were disadvantaged due to the referee and they missed out too many big opportunities. But that can happen to anybody.

In any case the game against Duisburg will be different. Duisburg will not stonewall in their own defense with 11 players in the own penalty area like Osnabruck did, but they will try to attack also. That is better of Augsburg. Anyway, Augsburg has simply much more quality than Duisburg.

Maybe you will now argue that Augsburgs regular defender Sankoh and their main goalkeeper Jentzsch are both out. But first of all Sankoh is a new player and he is still substitutable. Augsburg has enough alternatives to him in the defense and to be honest I did not like Sankoh's performances so far. Main point is that defense defender Uwe Mohrle is going to play. And Jentzsch injury will be no problem, too. I did detailed research about their second goalkeeper Amsif and everyone says that he is good enough. He played for Schalke 04 for serveral years.

Of course Jentzsch' injury will be a disadvantage, even so the fact that Duisburgs whole central defense is out is much more fatal. Probably Bajic and Sukalo will make up the defense. Bajic played in the 2. Bundesliga some years ago and I still remember him very well, he is a stiff and slow defender. Sukalo is actually a midfield player and I was suprised when I read that he should be central defender against Augsburg.

I read in MSV Duisburg an forums and even their fans say that they expect a defeat againt Augsburg but Duisburg' fans know that their team is too unexperienced to play for promotion this year. Anything else than an away win would be a suprise. DNB odds are a gift here, I am sure that Duisburg won't get anything against promotion favourite Augsburg. FCA will be on fire next to the unlucky draw against Osnabruck.

Augsburg (+0) @2.11 (188BET), 6/10

[Khan1903]

@ Wolfsburg games always try dzeko to score or Grafite to score