Germany, 10.09. - 13.09.

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Hi, back after international games break. Let's see if I am able to repeat my good records from 2nd matchday.

10.09.2010, 18:00h | 2. Bundesliga | Paderborn - Union Berlin

Paderborn was the big suprise last year when they finished the season on a fantastic 5th place. Their strength were their fast counter attacks. Their best scorer and the most important man in the offensive, Mahir Saglik, changed to VfL Bochum. In addition some other players left the club, no mentionable players but some substitutes. The beginning of the season was due to this some difficult for Paderborn. First of all they lost in the DFB Cup away 2:0 against FSV Frankfurt. But Frankfurt is really much stronger than last year and Paderborn was not exactly worse than Frankfurt. Then they lost their home debut in the 2. Bundesliga against Aue by 0:1. But actually Paderborn dominated the match but they squnadered to many good opportunities. Than can happen and of course it has something to do with misfortune. The consequence: Aue scored in a lucky way in the injury time and Paderborn lost 0:1 - of course undeserved. Last weekend Paderborn lost away against promotion favourite Augsburg and again with 0:1. But Paderborn conceded a very late goal against once more. Also Augsburgs win was naturally not undeserved but Paderborn did not play bad. Paderborns defense kept it tight and they showed that they have potential.
Now Paderborn is under pressure of course. But last week Paderborn bought many new players. Three of them will be in the squad: First striker Edmond Kapllani from FC Augsburg who is a very experienced man and a good goalgetter (a goalgetter was missing so far), the Finnish international player Raitala who came from 1899 Hoffenheim and the Macedonian player Georgiev who came from Mainz. At least Kapllani and Raitala will probably start today. Kapllani is a very experienced goalgetter like I said and Raitala is a technical skilled defender with good passing.
A problem for Paderborn could be that Kapllani and Raitala were away with their international teams last week and their first and only training session together with the team was on Thursday but coach Andre Schubert confirmed that both are experienced enough to assimilate very quickly. On Thursday the team trained alone the stadium without fans because they want to prepare perfectly.
At last let's have a short look onto their lineup:

Masuch - Wachsmuth, Gonther, Palionis, Raitala - Krösche - Guié-Mien, Alushi, Brückner - Kapllani, Mosquera (Manno)

Regular defender Florian Mohr is out due to a Red Card from last match but Palionis is a good and experienced defender. Basically I do not see any problems in their defense and in addition Berlin won't put their defense under pressure. Thus the offensive will be the important thing. And in it I see big potential. Alushi and Brückner are really fantastic players - both were the main reason for Paderborns fantastic last season. Guie-Mien is a bit too old in my opinion but still a very experienced and technical skilled player. Their double spearhead consists of Mosquera/Kapllani, Mosquera/Manno or Manno/Kapllani. About Kapllani I have already said enough - an experienced goalgetter. Paderborns new striker Mosquera showed really good first beginnings so far and he is very fast (big advantage against Berlins slow defense). Gaetano Manno is good, too, but he was injured for a long time. But he is fit for a weeks and coach Schubert said that his comeback against Berlin is very possible.

All in all I expect Paderborn to play offensive. It will be easier than against Aue two weeks ago because Berlin's defense is simply worse than Aue's and Aue's atmosphere was much better back then.

There is not much to say about Union Berlin, I already did it in my preview from last weekend:

Glinker - Polenz, Göhlert, Madouni, Kohlmann - Peitz - Brunnemann, Mattuschka - Kolk - Benyamina, Savran

Berlins big probleme in the defense is the bad coordination. Polenz and Madouni are both new and the whole back four did not go well together so far. The main problem in the defense is the fact that Berlin's defenders are too slow and stiff. The best example is called Dominic Peitz. A 196cm tall player who is simply too slow against fast offensive players like Brückner or Mosquera from Paderborn. Another mentionable thing is that Union goalkeeper Glinker did big mistakes so far - he has a lack of self-confidence.
Last Saturday Berlin showed their poorest performance for a couple of years against Furth (original said by Berlin coach Uwe Neuhaus). They simply played without structure and system. Just brainless, I read in Union Berlin fan forums in the last days and the fans say that the team plays without strategy - I agree with them.

I expect a very difficult season for Berlin. The defense is a weakness, their goalkeeper is bad and above all in their first away match in Aachen (2:2) they showed that they have problems when a strong offensive team put their defense under pressure. I think that we will see a similiar game today. Paderborn has strong and fast offensive players and Berlin has problems with fast strikers. The only possibility for Union to score is one of their fantastic set-pieces.

By the way, Union Berlin are very poor travellers. Just around 300 supporters will come to Paderborn, atmosphere is not good at the moment. Maybe Union Berlin players already think about the big derby match next weekend (vs. Hertha Berlin).

So I see value on Paderborn odds. Stakes only 3/10 because I am not 100% sure if Paderborn will immediately chime together good enough but there is every indication that we will see a home win.

Pick: Paderborn (-0.25) @1,94 (CANBET) or @1,92 (ASIANS) , 3/10

[SPERRL]

GL

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Originally Posted by DSQUAREDLOL

Hi, back after international games break. Let's see if I am able to repeat my good records from 2nd matchday.

10.09.2010, 18:00h | 2. Bundesliga | Paderborn - Union Berlin

Paderborn was the big suprise last year when they finished the season on a fantastic 5th place. Their strength were their fast counter attacks. Their best scorer and the most important man in the offensive, Mahir Saglik, changed to VfL Bochum. In addition some other players left the club, no mentionable players but some substitutes. The beginning of the season was due to this some difficult for Paderborn. First of all they lost in the DFB Cup away 2:0 against FSV Frankfurt. But Frankfurt is really much stronger than last year and Paderborn was not exactly worse than Frankfurt. Then they lost their home debut in the 2. Bundesliga against Aue by 0:1. But actually Paderborn dominated the match but they squnadered to many good opportunities. Than can happen and of course it has something to do with misfortune. The consequence: Aue scored in a lucky way in the injury time and Paderborn lost 0:1 - of course undeserved. Last weekend Paderborn lost away against promotion favourite Augsburg and again with 0:1. But Paderborn conceded a very late goal against once more. Also Augsburgs win was naturally not undeserved but Paderborn did not play bad. Paderborns defense kept it tight and they showed that they have potential.
Now Paderborn is under pressure of course. But last week Paderborn bought many new players. Three of them will be in the squad: First striker Edmond Kapllani from FC Augsburg who is a very experienced man and a good goalgetter (a goalgetter was missing so far), the Finnish international player Raitala who came from 1899 Hoffenheim and the Macedonian player Georgiev who came from Mainz. At least Kapllani and Raitala will probably start today. Kapllani is a very experienced goalgetter like I said and Raitala is a technical skilled defender with good passing.
A problem for Paderborn could be that Kapllani and Raitala were away with their international teams last week and their first and only training session together with the team was on Thursday but coach Andre Schubert confirmed that both are experienced enough to assimilate very quickly. On Thursday the team trained alone the stadium without fans because they want to prepare perfectly.
At last let's have a short look onto their lineup:

Masuch - Wachsmuth, Gonther, Palionis, Raitala - Krösche - Guié-Mien, Alushi, Brückner - Kapllani, Mosquera (Manno)

Regular defender Florian Mohr is out due to a Red Card from last match but Palionis is a good and experienced defender. Basically I do not see any problems in their defense and in addition Berlin won't put their defense under pressure. Thus the offensive will be the important thing. And in it I see big potential. Alushi and Brückner are really fantastic players - both were the main reason for Paderborns fantastic last season. Guie-Mien is a bit too old in my opinion but still a very experienced and technical skilled player. Their double spearhead consists of Mosquera/Kapllani, Mosquera/Manno or Manno/Kapllani. About Kapllani I have already said enough - an experienced goalgetter. Paderborns new striker Mosquera showed really good first beginnings so far and he is very fast (big advantage against Berlins slow defense). Gaetano Manno is good, too, but he was injured for a long time. But he is fit for a weeks and coach Schubert said that his comeback against Berlin is very possible.

All in all I expect Paderborn to play offensive. It will be easier than against Aue two weeks ago because Berlin's defense is simply worse than Aue's and Aue's atmosphere was much better back then.

There is not much to say about Union Berlin, I already did it in my preview from last weekend:

Glinker - Polenz, Göhlert, Madouni, Kohlmann - Peitz - Brunnemann, Mattuschka - Kolk - Benyamina, Savran

Berlins big probleme in the defense is the bad coordination. Polenz and Madouni are both new and the whole back four did not go well together so far. The main problem in the defense is the fact that Berlin's defenders are too slow and stiff. The best example is called Dominic Peitz. A 196cm tall player who is simply too slow against fast offensive players like Brückner or Mosquera from Paderborn. Another mentionable thing is that Union goalkeeper Glinker did big mistakes so far - he has a lack of self-confidence.
Last Saturday Berlin showed their poorest performance for a couple of years against Furth (original said by Berlin coach Uwe Neuhaus). They simply played without structure and system. Just brainless, I read in Union Berlin fan forums in the last days and the fans say that the team plays without strategy - I agree with them.

I expect a very difficult season for Berlin. The defense is a weakness, their goalkeeper is bad and above all in their first away match in Aachen (2:2) they showed that they have problems when a strong offensive team put their defense under pressure. I think that we will see a similiar game today. Paderborn has strong and fast offensive players and Berlin has problems with fast strikers. The only possibility for Union to score is one of their fantastic set-pieces.

By the way, Union Berlin are very poor travellers. Just around 300 supporters will come to Paderborn, atmosphere is not good at the moment. Maybe Union Berlin players already think about the big derby match next weekend (vs. Hertha Berlin).

So I see value on Paderborn odds. Stakes only 3/10 because I am not 100% sure if Paderborn will immediately chime together good enough but there is every indication that we will see a home win.

Pick: Paderborn (-0.25) @1,94 (CANBET) or @1,92 (ASIANS) , 3/10

FT 2:0

+ 2.82 u

Very deserved home win. First half time Paderborn was slightly better but not good enough. In the second half time they showed what I wrote above. Good start for me.

[bluemoon]

Nice call DSQUAREDLOL!

Cheers!

[slick]

Excellent Dsquared, great to see you carry on from where you left off.

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Very late, sorry.

Hi.

11.09.2010, 13:00h | 2. Bundesliga | Frankfurt - Dusseldorf

Reasoning for this bet is really simple. When I looked on odds in this game for over goals I had to rub my eyes in disbelief at first. Why the hell the market says that over goals are so unprobably here?

I even think that over 2,25 goals are more possible here than under 2,25 goals. Thus the odds are a gift for us.

First of all Frankfurt lineip:

Klandt - C. Müller, Schlicke, Heitmeier, Dahlén - Cinaz - Sv. Müller, Wunderlich, Gjasula, Fillinger - Mölders

I know both teams really well, first of all starting with a something about FSV Frankfurt. If you hear FSV Frankfurt, you probably think about a very bad team which struggles against relegation year after year. But FSV Frankfurt is basically different this year. I see them out of relegation danger to be honest. Let's have a more detailed look on their last games. In the first 2. Bundesliga game they beat Arminia Bielefeld at home with 2:1. In the 1st half time they outplayed Bielefeld and they even had opportunities for much more goals. But they just scored twice. In the 2nd half time they were too sure of them and hence poor Bielefeld could pull them back.
A week after that impressing victory they played away in Oberhausen and they showed a spiritless and poor performance. They played spiritless and discouraged and I felt that they were out of it. Hence it was a very poor game because Oberhausen performed in the same way. After 60 minuts Oberhausen used a chance after a corner.

So, let's resume. Frankfurt is really a technical skilled team. They are really different to last year and they are a team which lives from their technical skills. Frankfurt made a big change in the summer break but honsetly I am not content about their defense. Their defenders (above all Bjorn Schlicke, new from Duisburg) are a bit too slow and stiff. And Dusseldorf has very fast offensive players ...

I expect Frankfurt trying to make the running and they are able to do that.

Dusseldorf lineup:

Ratajczak - Weber, Langeneke, Tiago, J. van den Bergh - Costa - Zoundi, Christ, Lambertz - Wellington, Torghelle

No some lines about Dusseldorf. I wrote a lot about them and their style of playing in my preview from last weekend so I will not repeat myself. Their weak point is their defense as I already wrote it last week. As already mentioned Dusseldorf lost their defense boss Bamba Anderson. That is very fatal for them because Tiago (who should substitute Anderson) made a very poor impression so far. He is a element of uncertainty. In the offensive Dusseldorf has their strength. Wellington had a nice debut against Hertha last game when he immediately scored after his substitution.

Now still a few sentences about Dusseldorf's last performances. They started with a 2:0 defeat away against strong Cottbus but as I have already mentioned it a few times, they wasted a couple of fantastic opportunities. That is not a issue of skill but of misfortune. Then Dusseldorf last at home 1:2 against Hertha BSC. They had defending problems against Hertha and they conceded two goals out of the blue due to mistakes in the defense work.

So what kind of game do I expect? Frankfurt will try to make the running and they are definite good enough to do that. They want to show an answer to their poor performance in Oberhausen. Dusseldorf had a catastrophal start in the season and they want make amends for that defeats. Nearly everything argue for some goals here, so I am really glad about that odds.

Stake is "only" 4/10 due to my bad experiences with over/under betting but I really see a lot of value in this bet.

Pick: +2.25 goals @1,94 (10bet), 4/10

[DSQUAREDLOL]

11.09.2010, 13:00h | 2. Bundesliga | Duisburg - 1860

Duisburg is the suprise team of the season so far. After two victories against promoted teams Osnabruck (3:1) and Ingolstadt (4:1), Duisburg ranks on the 1st place at the moment. But what exactly did we see from Duisburg up to now?
In Osnabruck Duisburg had no mentionable opportunities early in the match but then they scored with a free-kick goal. Thus it was difficult for Osnabruck to strike back. So Duisburg won deserved but Osnabruck is a team with a bad defense and Osnabruck is a relegation canidate.
After that Duisburg won at home against Ingolstadt (4:1). It was a strange 1st half time. After a few seconds Ingolstadt had a golden opportunitiy to score but they wasted it and in reverse Duisburg take the lead with another free-kick goal (after 3 minuts). Ingolstadt was shocked and Duisburg used two more opportunities in two minuts after set pieces. Therefore game was over but Ingolstadt's defense is a debacle anyway.
So Duisburg won again two uncertain teams so far. But actually Duisburgs team is worse than last season. Due to financial problems they had to sell most of their key players, such as regular defenders Tiago, Fahrenhorst, Schlicke and Andersen. In addition their goalkeeper Starke changed to 1899 Hoffenheim and a lot of other important players like Tiffert and Caiuby were sold. In turn Duisburg bought a lot of unexperienced and young players. But from that what I read, I know that team spirit is Duisburgs strength. Let's have a short look on their expected lineup:

Yelldell - Koch, Reiche, Bruno Soares, Veigneau - Grlic, Bajic - Yilmaz, Baljak, Sahan - Maierhofer

Their defense is really unexperienced. Koch (19), Reiche (22), Bruno Soares (22) and Veigneau (25) build a really young back four. They were not challenged in the first games but it will be different against 1860 and I do not think that their defense will be good enough. Grlic (35) is their leader and a fantastic technical skilled player, no doubts. He already scored twice by free kicks but 1860 coach Maurer pointed out in the press conference that his team is prepared very well against Duisburgs corners/free-kicks. Maierhofer is 2,02m tall and a very dangerous player if he gets crosses and corners. But 1860 defenders Bell (1,92m) and Buck (1,90m) have best pre-conditions against him.

Their creative midfield player Trojan (important) is very doubtful because he has a flu.

Duisburgs results so far are very impressive but they were no performance benchmarks for Duisburgs skills.

Now sth. about 1860. In the first game they lost away by 3:2 in Bochum. 1860 showed a poor defensive performance but meanwhile they demonstrated their fantastic counter attacks. But the defense against Duisburg will be different:

Kiraly - Rukavina, Bell, Buck, Barros - Stahl, Leitner - Aigner, Bierofka - Rakic, Lauth
1860 started with Ghvinianidze and Bülow as central defenders but both will be out (and that is not a disadvantage .. both showed poor performances so far). As I have already mentioned above, Bell and Buck are well-suited against Duisburgs tall striker Maierhofer. As left defender Barros is new, last week he came as a new player from Peru. Of course I do not know anything about him but I read that he showed a good performance in train so far. Stahl and Leitner will play as defensive midfielders - I am not a fan of Dominik Stahl to be honest but anyway he does a solid job most time. Leitner is the biggest talent in Germany II. He is only 17 years old but he played so fantastic so far. Aigner is 1860's best player, Bundesliga team VfB Stuttgart wanted him but Aigner wanted to stay at 1860. That improved the atmosphere in the club.
Anyhow, Aigner and Bierofka war very good counter strikers. That could be the crucial factor against Duisburgs unexperienced defense. Rakic and Lauth are both in a fantastic form at the moment. Rakic scored 3 times in 2 games this season and he is simply a very good striker.

To cut a long story short, 1860 is simply the better team. Duisburg beat two weak sides so far but 1860 is much stronger. If 1860s new defense will do their job satisfiable and better than the old one, then I think that 1860 will get one point here at least, but I even expect a victory for 1860.

Pick: 1860 (+0.25) @2,22 (188BET) , 4/10

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Originally Posted by DSQUAREDLOL

Very late, sorry.

Hi.

11.09.2010, 13:00h | 2. Bundesliga | Frankfurt - Dusseldorf

Reasoning for this bet is really simple. When I looked on odds in this game for over goals I had to rub my eyes in disbelief at first. Why the hell the market says that over goals are so unprobably here?

I even think that over 2,25 goals are more possible here than under 2,25 goals. Thus the odds are a gift for us.

First of all Frankfurt lineip:

Klandt - C. Müller, Schlicke, Heitmeier, Dahlén - Cinaz - Sv. Müller, Wunderlich, Gjasula, Fillinger - Mölders

I know both teams really well, first of all starting with a something about FSV Frankfurt. If you hear FSV Frankfurt, you probably think about a very bad team which struggles against relegation year after year. But FSV Frankfurt is basically different this year. I see them out of relegation danger to be honest. Let's have a more detailed look on their last games. In the first 2. Bundesliga game they beat Arminia Bielefeld at home with 2:1. In the 1st half time they outplayed Bielefeld and they even had opportunities for much more goals. But they just scored twice. In the 2nd half time they were too sure of them and hence poor Bielefeld could pull them back.
A week after that impressing victory they played away in Oberhausen and they showed a spiritless and poor performance. They played spiritless and discouraged and I felt that they were out of it. Hence it was a very poor game because Oberhausen performed in the same way. After 60 minuts Oberhausen used a chance after a corner.

So, let's resume. Frankfurt is really a technical skilled team. They are really different to last year and they are a team which lives from their technical skills. Frankfurt made a big change in the summer break but honsetly I am not content about their defense. Their defenders (above all Bjorn Schlicke, new from Duisburg) are a bit too slow and stiff. And Dusseldorf has very fast offensive players ...

I expect Frankfurt trying to make the running and they are able to do that.

Dusseldorf lineup:

Ratajczak - Weber, Langeneke, Tiago, J. van den Bergh - Costa - Zoundi, Christ, Lambertz - Wellington, Torghelle

No some lines about Dusseldorf. I wrote a lot about them and their style of playing in my preview from last weekend so I will not repeat myself. Their weak point is their defense as I already wrote it last week. As already mentioned Dusseldorf lost their defense boss Bamba Anderson. That is very fatal for them because Tiago (who should substitute Anderson) made a very poor impression so far. He is a element of uncertainty. In the offensive Dusseldorf has their strength. Wellington had a nice debut against Hertha last game when he immediately scored after his substitution.

Now still a few sentences about Dusseldorf's last performances. They started with a 2:0 defeat away against strong Cottbus but as I have already mentioned it a few times, they wasted a couple of fantastic opportunities. That is not a issue of skill but of misfortune. Then Dusseldorf last at home 1:2 against Hertha BSC. They had defending problems against Hertha and they conceded two goals out of the blue due to mistakes in the defense work.

So what kind of game do I expect? Frankfurt will try to make the running and they are definite good enough to do that. They want to show an answer to their poor performance in Oberhausen. Dusseldorf had a catastrophal start in the season and they want make amends for that defeats. Nearly everything argue for some goals here, so I am really glad about that odds.

Stake is "only" 4/10 due to my bad experiences with over/under betting but I really see a lot of value in this bet.

Pick: +2.25 goals @1,94 (10bet), 4/10

FT 1:0

-4 u

Bet was good here although it is lost. Enough opportunities, Dusseldorf with a regular goal which was not given and a few big opportunities. But sorry to all followers!

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Originally Posted by DSQUAREDLOL

11.09.2010, 13:00h | 2. Bundesliga | Duisburg - 1860

Duisburg is the suprise team of the season so far. After two victories against promoted teams Osnabruck (3:1) and Ingolstadt (4:1), Duisburg ranks on the 1st place at the moment. But what exactly did we see from Duisburg up to now?
In Osnabruck Duisburg had no mentionable opportunities early in the match but then they scored with a free-kick goal. Thus it was difficult for Osnabruck to strike back. So Duisburg won deserved but Osnabruck is a team with a bad defense and Osnabruck is a relegation canidate.
After that Duisburg won at home against Ingolstadt (4:1). It was a strange 1st half time. After a few seconds Ingolstadt had a golden opportunitiy to score but they wasted it and in reverse Duisburg take the lead with another free-kick goal (after 3 minuts). Ingolstadt was shocked and Duisburg used two more opportunities in two minuts after set pieces. Therefore game was over but Ingolstadt's defense is a debacle anyway.
So Duisburg won again two uncertain teams so far. But actually Duisburgs team is worse than last season. Due to financial problems they had to sell most of their key players, such as regular defenders Tiago, Fahrenhorst, Schlicke and Andersen. In addition their goalkeeper Starke changed to 1899 Hoffenheim and a lot of other important players like Tiffert and Caiuby were sold. In turn Duisburg bought a lot of unexperienced and young players. But from that what I read, I know that team spirit is Duisburgs strength. Let's have a short look on their expected lineup:

Yelldell - Koch, Reiche, Bruno Soares, Veigneau - Grlic, Bajic - Yilmaz, Baljak, Sahan - Maierhofer

Their defense is really unexperienced. Koch (19), Reiche (22), Bruno Soares (22) and Veigneau (25) build a really young back four. They were not challenged in the first games but it will be different against 1860 and I do not think that their defense will be good enough. Grlic (35) is their leader and a fantastic technical skilled player, no doubts. He already scored twice by free kicks but 1860 coach Maurer pointed out in the press conference that his team is prepared very well against Duisburgs corners/free-kicks. Maierhofer is 2,02m tall and a very dangerous player if he gets crosses and corners. But 1860 defenders Bell (1,92m) and Buck (1,90m) have best pre-conditions against him.

Their creative midfield player Trojan (important) is very doubtful because he has a flu.

Duisburgs results so far are very impressive but they were no performance benchmarks for Duisburgs skills.

Now sth. about 1860. In the first game they lost away by 3:2 in Bochum. 1860 showed a poor defensive performance but meanwhile they demonstrated their fantastic counter attacks. But the defense against Duisburg will be different:

Kiraly - Rukavina, Bell, Buck, Barros - Stahl, Leitner - Aigner, Bierofka - Rakic, Lauth
1860 started with Ghvinianidze and Bülow as central defenders but both will be out (and that is not a disadvantage .. both showed poor performances so far). As I have already mentioned above, Bell and Buck are well-suited against Duisburgs tall striker Maierhofer. As left defender Barros is new, last week he came as a new player from Peru. Of course I do not know anything about him but I read that he showed a good performance in train so far. Stahl and Leitner will play as defensive midfielders - I am not a fan of Dominik Stahl to be honest but anyway he does a solid job most time. Leitner is the biggest talent in Germany II. He is only 17 years old but he played so fantastic so far. Aigner is 1860's best player, Bundesliga team VfB Stuttgart wanted him but Aigner wanted to stay at 1860. That improved the atmosphere in the club.
Anyhow, Aigner and Bierofka war very good counter strikers. That could be the crucial factor against Duisburgs unexperienced defense. Rakic and Lauth are both in a fantastic form at the moment. Rakic scored 3 times in 2 games this season and he is simply a very good striker.

To cut a long story short, 1860 is simply the better team. Duisburg beat two weak sides so far but 1860 is much stronger. If 1860s new defense will do their job satisfiable and better than the old one, then I think that 1860 will get one point here at least, but I even expect a victory for 1860.

Pick: 1860 (+0.25) @2,22 (188BET) , 4/10

2:1 FT (0:1 HT ..)

-4 u

Deserved home win for Duisburg, 1860's defense disappointed me. Very bad pick.

[DSQUAREDLOL]

12.09.2010, 13:30h | 2. Bundesliga | Hertha BSC - Arminia Bielefeld

First time in my betting carrier that I bet on the same team three times consecutive. ML odds are about ~1.55 here, ~1.30 would be the correct price. I decided to play Hertha with (-1) and in the following lines I will explain you why. I expect this lineup:

Aerts - Lell, Hubnik, Mijatovic, Kobiashvili - Niemeyer - Rukavytsya, Raffael, Ramos, Domovchyiski - Friend

First of all, let's talk about Hertha's performances so far in this season. They started with a 3:2 victory against Rot-Weiss Oberhausen. It was a difficult match, they conceded a very early goal through a corner and they simply played too bad in the defense. The defense has big quality as I already pointed it out last weeks, but the coordination is their problem. It does not figure beetween Hubnik and Mijatovic. But I am sure that it will be better from week to week. And actually that would be my reason to be careful with betting on Hertha, but Bielefeld has the worst offensive of the whole league and therefore I am sure that it will be easy for Hertha to keep a clean sheet. Herthas offensive quality is brilliant. Again at last Raffael will be back in the lineup. He is the best player of the whole league, no doubts, he even was a fantastic 1. Bundesliga player and he is the best 2. Bundesliga player I have ever seen in the past years. The same thing I can say about Ramos. Ramos was not happy about his situation with Hertha because he thought that he would lost his guaranteed starting spot in the Columbian international team but last week he was invited for a international game of Columbia. Therefore he is happy again and hopefully 100% motivated against Bielefeld.

Apart from that another mentionable thing, Babbel changed the system. He will play 4-1-4-1 instead of 4-2-3-1 for more pressing forward. A good decision because he has nothing to fear from Bielefelds poor offensive.

In other respects something about the atmosphere in the club. Berlin turn euphoric due to good results so far. The fans support Hertha and more than 40.000 fans are expected today. Hertha did not convince me to 100% so far due to their defensive problems but general they are at least one class better than Bielefeld.

So let's turn to Bielefeld, starting with their most probable lineup:

Eilhoff - Toure, Lense, Bollmann, Schuler - Fischer, Kauf - Abelski, Baykan, Heidinger - Neuville

I wrote many important things about Bielefelds situation last matchday. Bielefeld is nearly bankrupt and the team is very young. Up to now, Bielefeld had big problems in creating opportunities. They are very harmless in the offensive with 37-years old striker Neuville. In addition their defense had problems so far and I am sure that their defense will have problems against Hertha's fantastic offensive.

Another very important fact argueing against Bielefeld is the fact that very important key players are out. Bielefelds only technical skilled player and the best player of their whole team, Franck Manga Guela, is suspended. In addition Feick, Bölstler and Delura are injured. All three are substitutes but not indeed important.

There is every indication that we will see a home victory today. Hertha is much, much better, Bielefeld won't be able to exploit Herthas weakpoint (their defense) and important players from Bielefeld are out. By the way I read a little bit in fan forums from Bielefeld and fans are sure that their team won't get anything in Berlin. I agree with them.

Very obvious value on the home team here.

Hertha BSC (-1) @1,93 (IBCBET), 5/10

[DSQUAREDLOL]

12.09.2010, 13:30h | 2. Bundesliga | Greuther Furth - Alemannia Aachen

I am sure that Furth will continue their amazing run with three points against Aachen. I played the -0.75 instead of -0.5 intentionally because I am sure that Furth would win clear if they would win. That's due to the fact that Furth is the best counter attacking team of the league and because Aachen is the team with the worst defense up to now.

Let's start with a short look onto Furth's lineup:

Grün - Schröck, Kleine, Biliskov, Prib - Pekovic - Nehrig, Haas, N. Müller - Nöthe, Schahin

The defense - mainly the central defenders - were Furths weakest part of the team so far. Their defense is not bad so don't take me wrong but Furths strength is their offensive. Furth has a very special playing style. They play very direct deep forward passes and long balls to the fast and good wingers (Schröck, Prib, Nehrig, Müller). That was their key to success so far. Nöthe is indeed in a bad form at the moment but he was Furths best goalgetter last season and I do not call his skills into question. Schahin is the newcomer in Furth, last year he was a mediocre substitute but this year he showed so strong performances. By the way, Furth engaged Danijel Aleksic from Genoa, a Serbian midfielder talent. He will sit on the substitute's bench at first but it is very probably that he will be substituted later in the game.

Let's look detailed in Furths last performances. They started with a fantastic 4:1 win against Karlsruhe. They showed how to show counter football in the own stadium and they really impressed me. Last game they won 2:1 away versus Union Berlin and as well in this game they showed their counter attack football.

Furth is a fantastic team this year with the best coach in my opinion. They are a promotion favourite.

Now we will take a short look on Aachen:

Hohs - Demai, Olajengbesi, Stehle, Achenbach - Höger, Junglas, Kratz, Stieber - B. Auer, Gueye

There are not many important things to say about them. This team has quality but they played brainless in the last games. Unbelievable offensive without caring for defense anymore, I have never seen something like that. And their 34-years young coach Hyballa said that it is his game philosophy and that he will not change it.
Last match they lost 3:0 away in Karlsruhe but Karlsruhe had enough opportunities to score much more often. Karlsruhes style of playing is a bit simliliar to Furths style, Karlsruhe likes to counter attack, too. Anyhow Aachen played without defense in Karlsruhe, thus Karlsruhe leaded 3:0 after 30 minuts. But Karlsruhe hit the post many times in the first 30 minuts .. I have never seen such a bad strategy from a team in an away match.

Playing offensive is okay but in that naive way? Aachen has offensive quality but you can not win a game without defense. But in any case Aachens defense is poor - David Hohs is a bad goalkeeper (main goalkeeper Stuckmann is injured), the backfour made a extreme poor impression so far (defense boss Herzig is injured, too). Two important missings for Aachen.

In any case I am sure that Hyballa is not stupid and hence I think that he will try to find a better mix beetween attacking and defending. But you can not achieve anything away with such a defense.

As a consequence I expect a clear home win in a high-scoring match. Furth is more experienced and if they will not start playing arrogant, the home win will be safe.

Pick: Furth (-0.75) @2,08 (188BET) , 4/10

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Originally Posted by DSQUAREDLOL

12.09.2010, 13:30h | 2. Bundesliga | Greuther Furth - Alemannia Aachen

I am sure that Furth will continue their amazing run with three points against Aachen. I played the -0.75 instead of -0.5 intentionally because I am sure that Furth would win clear if they would win. That's due to the fact that Furth is the best counter attacking team of the league and because Aachen is the team with the worst defense up to now.

Let's start with a short look onto Furth's lineup:

Grün - Schröck, Kleine, Biliskov, Prib - Pekovic - Nehrig, Haas, N. Müller - Nöthe, Schahin

The defense - mainly the central defenders - were Furths weakest part of the team so far. Their defense is not bad so don't take me wrong but Furths strength is their offensive. Furth has a very special playing style. They play very direct deep forward passes and long balls to the fast and good wingers (Schröck, Prib, Nehrig, Müller). That was their key to success so far. Nöthe is indeed in a bad form at the moment but he was Furths best goalgetter last season and I do not call his skills into question. Schahin is the newcomer in Furth, last year he was a mediocre substitute but this year he showed so strong performances. By the way, Furth engaged Danijel Aleksic from Genoa, a Serbian midfielder talent. He will sit on the substitute's bench at first but it is very probably that he will be substituted later in the game.

Let's look detailed in Furths last performances. They started with a fantastic 4:1 win against Karlsruhe. They showed how to show counter football in the own stadium and they really impressed me. Last game they won 2:1 away versus Union Berlin and as well in this game they showed their counter attack football.

Furth is a fantastic team this year with the best coach in my opinion. They are a promotion favourite.

Now we will take a short look on Aachen:

Hohs - Demai, Olajengbesi, Stehle, Achenbach - Höger, Junglas, Kratz, Stieber - B. Auer, Gueye

There are not many important things to say about them. This team has quality but they played brainless in the last games. Unbelievable offensive without caring for defense anymore, I have never seen something like that. And their 34-years young coach Hyballa said that it is his game philosophy and that he will not change it.
Last match they lost 3:0 away in Karlsruhe but Karlsruhe had enough opportunities to score much more often. Karlsruhes style of playing is a bit simliliar to Furths style, Karlsruhe likes to counter attack, too. Anyhow Aachen played without defense in Karlsruhe, thus Karlsruhe leaded 3:0 after 30 minuts. But Karlsruhe hit the post many times in the first 30 minuts .. I have never seen such a bad strategy from a team in an away match.

Playing offensive is okay but in that naive way? Aachen has offensive quality but you can not win a game without defense. But in any case Aachens defense is poor - David Hohs is a bad goalkeeper (main goalkeeper Stuckmann is injured), the backfour made a extreme poor impression so far (defense boss Herzig is injured, too). Two important missings for Aachen.

In any case I am sure that Hyballa is not stupid and hence I think that he will try to find a better mix beetween attacking and defending. But you can not achieve anything away with such a defense.

As a consequence I expect a clear home win in a high-scoring match. Furth is more experienced and if they will not start playing arrogant, the home win will be safe.

Pick: Furth (-0.75) @2,08 (188BET) , 4/10

FT 1:1

- 4 u

I am not looking for excuses but referee was biggest joke I have ever seen in this season. An overweight small guy who gave one joke penalty to Furth and awarded one big, big joke penalty to Aachen. Sounds fair but in the injury time Furth referee had to award a 100% clear penalty to Furth.

Next weekend will be good again.

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Originally Posted by DSQUAREDLOL

12.09.2010, 13:30h | 2. Bundesliga | Hertha BSC - Arminia Bielefeld

First time in my betting carrier that I bet on the same team three times consecutive. ML odds are about ~1.55 here, ~1.30 would be the correct price. I decided to play Hertha with (-1) and in the following lines I will explain you why. I expect this lineup:

Aerts - Lell, Hubnik, Mijatovic, Kobiashvili - Niemeyer - Rukavytsya, Raffael, Ramos, Domovchyiski - Friend

First of all, let's talk about Hertha's performances so far in this season. They started with a 3:2 victory against Rot-Weiss Oberhausen. It was a difficult match, they conceded a very early goal through a corner and they simply played too bad in the defense. The defense has big quality as I already pointed it out last weeks, but the coordination is their problem. It does not figure beetween Hubnik and Mijatovic. But I am sure that it will be better from week to week. And actually that would be my reason to be careful with betting on Hertha, but Bielefeld has the worst offensive of the whole league and therefore I am sure that it will be easy for Hertha to keep a clean sheet. Herthas offensive quality is brilliant. Again at last Raffael will be back in the lineup. He is the best player of the whole league, no doubts, he even was a fantastic 1. Bundesliga player and he is the best 2. Bundesliga player I have ever seen in the past years. The same thing I can say about Ramos. Ramos was not happy about his situation with Hertha because he thought that he would lost his guaranteed starting spot in the Columbian international team but last week he was invited for a international game of Columbia. Therefore he is happy again and hopefully 100% motivated against Bielefeld.

Apart from that another mentionable thing, Babbel changed the system. He will play 4-1-4-1 instead of 4-2-3-1 for more pressing forward. A good decision because he has nothing to fear from Bielefelds poor offensive.

In other respects something about the atmosphere in the club. Berlin turn euphoric due to good results so far. The fans support Hertha and more than 40.000 fans are expected today. Hertha did not convince me to 100% so far due to their defensive problems but general they are at least one class better than Bielefeld.

So let's turn to Bielefeld, starting with their most probable lineup:

Eilhoff - Toure, Lense, Bollmann, Schuler - Fischer, Kauf - Abelski, Baykan, Heidinger - Neuville

I wrote many important things about Bielefelds situation last matchday. Bielefeld is nearly bankrupt and the team is very young. Up to now, Bielefeld had big problems in creating opportunities. They are very harmless in the offensive with 37-years old striker Neuville. In addition their defense had problems so far and I am sure that their defense will have problems against Hertha's fantastic offensive.

Another very important fact argueing against Bielefeld is the fact that very important key players are out. Bielefelds only technical skilled player and the best player of their whole team, Franck Manga Guela, is suspended. In addition Feick, Bölstler and Delura are injured. All three are substitutes but not indeed important.

There is every indication that we will see a home victory today. Hertha is much, much better, Bielefeld won't be able to exploit Herthas weakpoint (their defense) and important players from Bielefeld are out. By the way I read a little bit in fan forums from Bielefeld and fans are sure that their team won't get anything in Berlin. I agree with them.

Very obvious value on the home team here.

Hertha BSC (-1) @1,93 (IBCBET), 5/10

FT 3:1

+ 4.65 u

Hertha at least one class better, still 2:0 after 7 minuts. Then they stopped playing football.

[DSQUAREDLOL]

I am very late sorry.

13.09.2010, 20:15h | 2. Bundesliga | Energie Cottbus - Karlsruher SC

Reasoning is a little bit shorter today because I am very late with this pick. But I can not miss out this pick tonight because I am very convinced by Cottbus skills and their latest performances. First of all starting with Cottbus' lineup to explain you why:

Kirschbaum - Afriyie, Straith, Brzenska, Soma - Kurth, Kruska - Kronaveter, Adlung - Petersen, Jula

As I have already mentioned it in my last previews, Cottbus lived through a change in this summer. They sold a couple of important key players and I thought they would have a very difficult season this year. But Cottbus concinced me of the contrary. Best example is their goalkeeper Kirschbaum. He was the second goalkeeper of an average "3. Liga" team and I did not understand why they bought him. But so far he showed fantastic performances. Cottbus' central defenders are most likely their weakness because I do not like the young Straith. But it is complaining on a high level. Their new wing defenders Afriyie and Soma convinced me also.
But Cottbus' real strength is their offensive. I had to rub my eyes in disbelief when I saw them last Sunday in Bielefeld. Sometimes perfect combination play as I see it in 1. Bundesliga. Their offensive is definitely in the top three of the league.
Now some words about their first two games. In the first match they beat Dusseldorf who are heading towards a crisis. Cottbus had a few problems in the defense but it was no suprise to me - 5 new players in their starting lineup. Nevertheless the coordination beetween the players is fine. They won deservedly with 1:0 thanks to amazing goalkeeper Kirschbaum and bad conversion of chances from Karlsruhe. Then Cottbus won 2:1 away in Bielefeld. Bielefeld is a team with a very poor offensive and Bielefeld was not able to endanger Cottbus' defense. Cottbus did not do much in the game but they had a fantastic conversion of chances and as mentioned above, they showed fantastic combination play. But Cottbus are very poor travellers and thus it was a success for Cottbus to get 3 points in Bielefeld.

Coach Pele Wollitz is a maniac - he is the craziest coach in Germany and a fantastic motivator. In interviews he do not talk about promotion to depressurize his young team. But I agree with him - promotion could be difficult because you need a very good defense to play for promotion. And long-term that could be a problem. But tonight it won't because Karlsruhes offensive is not good and I do not see Karlsruhe to endanger Cottbus' defense.

Just another thing to talk about, a few regulars from Cottbus were injured last week but they are fit again. That is the reason to play this bet only with 3/10 because I can not be 100% sure that they will be in best form again.

But enough about Cottbus, now sth. about Karlsruhe. I will not post their lineup because coach Schupp did not say anything about it.

Close as I can figure it Karlsruhe is a team with weak defense AND weak offensive. The problem in the defense is that Marvin Matip changed to Ingolstadt and he was very important for them. The central defense consits of the twins M. Langkamp and S. Langkamp. But M. Langkamp was injured very long and coordination is not good yet (as we could see it when they lost 4:1 away in Furth on 1st matchday). Karlsruhes problem in the offensive is the fact that Chrisantus is very ineffective. He struggles but if you want to achieve anything away you need a good defense and strikers who are able to make pressure.

Maybe you are asking yourself why Karlsruhe won at home against Aachen 3:0 on last matchday. I can tell you. It was a curious game. Aachen attacked brainless without caring for defense but they forgot that Karlsruhe is a good counter attacking team. Therefore Karlsruhe was 3:0 in front after 30 minuts. But it was due to Aachens catastrophal strategy.

Another mentionable thing is the personal matter Markus Schupp (their coach). There is a struggle for power beetween management, presidium and coach. Presidium wants to fire Schupp but they do not have enough money to pay him indemnity payments, fans want that their president step down and so on. The team suffers from this situation. Players wrote a letter to the club that they want to keep Schupp but the trouble goes on.
By the way, there is a decision which I do not understand. Schupp suspended his best counter striker Krebs for this and the last games - but Krebs would be very important tonight.

Atmosphere in Cottbus is better, Cottbus is very strong at home and Cottbus is simply the better team. Karlsruhes defense was poor in Furth three weeks before when they conceded three goals and hence I can not believe that they will achieve anything tonight. The second AHC line -0.75 because Karlsruhes defense tend to collapse when being behind and because Cottbus offensive is simply amazing.

Cottbus (-0.75) @2,09 (IBCBET | 12BET), 3/10

[yorkieacermark2000]

Wow wtf are they playing at 2-0 up now losing 4-2