Poland 27-29 August

[Hobbit]

Odra Wodzislaw - MKS Kluczbork 1 2.04 SBO

Before the season I predicted a harsh start for Odra, which was something obvious when U drasticaly change Ur squad. They lost 0-3 to one of the favs Piast, but then they managed to click faster than I expected, won against Warta on road and against Leczna at home. Then last game was 0-1 road defeat to Podbeskidzie, current leader and that was a game where U could hardly see a difference in quality, was even a game, and a goal was scored straight from corner, big keeper mistake. All in all Odra has not bad team with some experienced players inside. Radler, Kuranty are those who keep them tight and not easy to beat. And at home I expect them to do most of the damage. I wrote as well I will not get involved in backing them to win untill some outside pitch situation is solved. And its very close to be done, Czech investor, future owner will come to see this game and to finialise agreement. Soon cash should flow to the club and players will get their paymanets. That should extra motivate them to win a game. Just experienced Wos missing as notable loss but he was out in last games anyway.

MKS Kluczbork was a team that was fighting against relegation last season, but still I liked them, few times at some juicy odds made me back them. I thought this season they co do well as well but so far it is not working that well for them. The miss of Sobota, true amazing leader last season, now gone and its visible. Their only road game this season was absolutely pathetic and backing them was big bad idea. They lost 0-2 to Polkowice showing nothing. Now in midweek lost in cup to lower div team but actually used fringe players so no big deal. In last round beat poor Nieciecza so not convinced about their strenght at all. They are yet to impress me and on road not really expecting that. They have poor starts to the seasons, did that last year and it seems this one is no different. Even if they are prepared well physically, then there is noone to finish their chances without Sobota. Polchlopek, the only real so called equlizer is not scoring and against tough Odra's defense he is not gonna have to much space.

Imo Odra at home should be given more chances, they are already adapting very fast and very well to this season, the team looked badly but Kuranty's arrival made them look better in midfield and at home, motivated by new owner should absolutely go for 3 pts. My fair price is -0.5 1.85

GL,
Hob

[Hobbit]

Korona Kielce (-0.25) - Cracovia Krakow 1 @2.21 SBO

I thought I would stick only to my Odra bet today but then I saw how Korona odds moved. It is a cracking price on a team which is playing home and at this moment is imo better one that Cracovia. It is 3rd home game this season for Korona, someone hit them against Zaglebie on -0.25, then same story happened against Widzew as well on this line, and now when opponent is the weakest the someone is backing Cracovia in Kielce. Well, not gonna complain here. Every time U give me this odds in such situation I will use it. Korona played great game against Zaglebie, then weaker against Widzew, but in Bytom on road took 3 pts last time and that should boost their confidence again. I can not see them not winning 3rd in a row home game. They should be full strenght, Niedzielan-Sobolewski duo is clickng perfectly, plenty of options to choose from, especialy on wings and some great parts of the game in Kielce when Korona is sending attack after attack. Not well balanced with defense yet as some unneccesary goals were conceded but they will improve.

Cracovia on contrary is 0/3 after 3 games, very unlucky especially one game on road against Legia when they should have take a point at least. Anyway last 0-5 in Poznan shows how crap their defense is. Not much changed, still relying on Polczak as cb than what do they expect? Some left back brought from Holland recently, perhaps his certificate arrives on time but without knowing partners in defense, always risky to put defender in line already from bus. Their best player (I judge it after one game only as new player as well, but he was amazing) is on Ramadan, on some food pills on something, not expecting to much from him now. Upfront just Slusarski a threat as Matusiak is burnt out and Dudzic is a master of missing great chances. I very much like coach Ulatowski, I am sure they will improve under him, but I see no reason at this stage to trust them.

All in all at opening odds I agreed with the market and it was a skip game as Cracovia will click soon, but -0.25 2.21 ? Lets be serious, it is a must bet for me.

GL with Ur choices,
Hob

[Hobbit]

Lechia Gdansk - Slask Wroclaw (0:0) 1 @2.00 SBO

Going against the drift once again. Some of U that follow my tips, or at least read writeups, probably remember I was on Lechia DNB last time they played Jaga, price was 2.00 I took and I simple story here. I rate Jagiellonia as a better team that Slask, perhaps not much better as Slask has improved with the new guys brought in and will be stronger than last season but yet I can not underestimate Lechia despite the fact they failed me last weekend. They did but unluckily as were the better team, had much from the play and more chances to beat Jaga, one corner killed them. But they proved they can play in rain, in 2nd half played in water and adapted fast and well being dominant side. Not such story to happen today I believe but should be rainy. Lechia same match squad as last time. Great game against Ruch unluckily not won, same bad luck last time. I am aware of the fact they badly need a good forward as this is just insane to miss that many chances but they play well and it has to bring fruits sooner than later.

Slask as I said brought in 3 interesting players, they look stronger but still they have lot to work on. Last time at home to Legia had some good chances but were (which might sound funny) a bit outplayed with Legia controlling the game. Last round game? Won 2-3 in Krakow but mainly cause of Cracovia's terrible play this season in defense. Yet Cracovia had very good moments the other day and imo with just better finishing should not have to loose that one. All in all, they say they are better on road, I do not buy it just yet. I was not impressed at all by Slask on road they other day and their team is yet to click. I might be wrong here, they probably during the season will get stronger than Lechia but in Gdansk it is not gonna be easy. So far after promoting, they played each other 4 games, Slask never won.

I went for bigger odds on -0.25 but DNB is much safer option, draw in Gdansk is never out of the question. Slask has very good fire power but their defense is nothign special. If Lechia manages to play another good home game they will eventually win. Why not today?

GL with Ur choices,
Hob

[Hobbit]

Very short with time right now, can not write to much but odds are to good to miss on this one

Widzew Lodz (+0.25) - Polonia Warszawa 1 @2.08 7/10 SBO

Above 2.05+ suggested, Widzew are no mugs, the fact that they are newcomers means nothing as their squad is strong and played div lower cause of corruption issues in the past, not because they were that bad and got relegated. Already played at home champs Lech (1-1) and vice champs Wisla (0-1) and presented themselves well enough to be worth a shot on this line and odds. Polonia is 3/3 so far but its Poland, 4th in a row? nah, do not think so, at least not with this odds. Polonia will go for crown but today misses their best imo player Mierzejewski, they are yet to be seen without him. Lots of cash spent and so and so, but imo last game fairly luckily won against Zaglebie, they are not team that can not be beaten and in Lodz its always tough to play. I do not think Widzew looses today.

[Yezzir]

Tailing you like usual Hobbit.

Let's get this.