Germany, 20.08 - 23.08

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Add previews for German football this weekend in this thread.

[DSQUAREDLOL]

20.08.2010, 18:00h | Hertha Berlin - Rot-Weiss Oberhausen

Hertha Berlin's relegation was a big suprise last year. Their team was strong enough to get a good midfield position but they just had unbelievable misfortune. This year they made a big change but it was the right decision because they need a new mindset. But anyway they kept their best players like Ramos (the best player from 2. Bundesliga, no doubt). Apart from that they bought other great players like Christian Lell who was regular some years ago at FC Bayern Munich or Rob Friend who was a great scorer for Gladbach last years.
Their new coach is Markus Babbel, he is known as a great motivator and I am pretty sure that it was the right decision to take him. He is a great mix beetween smart guy and heavy-handed coach.
Hertha BSC is big favourite for promotion this year and the atmosphere in the city is very good. In Berlin is a atmosphere of departure and all fans look forward to the new season. And I believe that they will play a great season also. The mix of old great players and new players is perfect.
Some days ago I saw them in the DFB cup where they played against SC Pfullendorf (4th league). They only won 2:0 but they had opportunities for nearly 10 goals. Just some misfortune with hitting the post and so on, but the team worked great.
Now some words about Oberhausen. Oberhausen is a traditional workers club with less money and they fight against the relegation each year. This year their lost their best player Moritz Stoppelkamp to Hannover 96 and a other very important regular (Heinrich Schmitdgal) is injured. Two fatal missings for them. Their test games were very, very poor.
In addition they play a special system with only 3 defenders. That could be a big problem against Hertha Berlin's great offensives. Another factor is that most of their new players have no match practise at the moment, that means that they were only substitutes in their last clubs and their last games were months ago. In addition they do not have good counter strikers (so how do they want to score?) and they are traditional very, very poor away. The atmosphere in the club is shit at the moment, I read in fan forums and the fans said that they expect the relegation this year.
Rich vs. poor, world metropolis vs. poor workers city, 40.000 fans against 100 fans - I just see big differences beetween this both teams. If Hertha wont be arrogant (but I dont think so, due to their coach Babbel), they will win easy at home against this poor side. And even if they would be arrogant, they would not have any problem to win.

Pick: Hertha BSC (-1,25) @1,94 (Pinnacle) , 3/10

[Claugol]

greay preview mate, but why only 3/10.This preview convinced me to bet on a home win but after i read this i expected to see something like 8/10 or 9/10

[HastGill1]

Originally Posted by Claugol

greay preview mate, but why only 3/10.This preview convinced me to bet on a home win but after i read this i expected to see something like 8/10 or 9/10

You don't generally put on max stakes bets in August, it's the start of the season and odd results happen..

[SPERRL]

I have been waiting for this day.

Great write up DSQUAREDLOL, as always.

Heres to a great year!!

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Odds raised on Hertha, 2,11 in Asian, dont know why at the moment. I think new injury.

Not high stakes because season start and Hertha will be arrogant eventually.

[DSQUAREDLOL]

latest odds 2,00 in Asian

[DSQUAREDLOL]

latest odds 1,94 in Asian

[Winrew]

Nice stuff DS...

Heres a link from the Guardian..

Bundesliga 2010-11 season preview | Raphael Honigstein | Football | guardian.co.uk

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Originally Posted by DSQUAREDLOL

20.08.2010, 18:00h | Hertha Berlin - Rot-Weiss Oberhausen

Hertha Berlin's relegation was a big suprise last year. Their team was strong enough to get a good midfield position but they just had unbelievable misfortune. This year they made a big change but it was the right decision because they need a new mindset. But anyway they kept their best players like Ramos (the best player from 2. Bundesliga, no doubt). Apart from that they bought other great players like Christian Lell who was regular some years ago at FC Bayern Munich or Rob Friend who was a great scorer for Gladbach last years.
Their new coach is Markus Babbel, he is known as a great motivator and I am pretty sure that it was the right decision to take him. He is a great mix beetween smart guy and heavy-handed coach.
Hertha BSC is big favourite for promotion this year and the atmosphere in the city is very good. In Berlin is a atmosphere of departure and all fans look forward to the new season. And I believe that they will play a great season also. The mix of old great players and new players is perfect.
Some days ago I saw them in the DFB cup where they played against SC Pfullendorf (4th league). They only won 2:0 but they had opportunities for nearly 10 goals. Just some misfortune with hitting the post and so on, but the team worked great.
Now some words about Oberhausen. Oberhausen is a traditional workers club with less money and they fight against the relegation each year. This year their lost their best player Moritz Stoppelkamp to Hannover 96 and a other very important regular (Heinrich Schmitdgal) is injured. Two fatal missings for them. Their test games were very, very poor.
In addition they play a special system with only 3 defenders. That could be a big problem against Hertha Berlin's great offensives. Another factor is that most of their new players have no match practise at the moment, that means that they were only substitutes in their last clubs and their last games were months ago. In addition they do not have good counter strikers (so how do they want to score?) and they are traditional very, very poor away. The atmosphere in the club is shit at the moment, I read in fan forums and the fans said that they expect the relegation this year.
Rich vs. poor, world metropolis vs. poor workers city, 40.000 fans against 100 fans - I just see big differences beetween this both teams. If Hertha wont be arrogant (but I dont think so, due to their coach Babbel), they will win easy at home against this poor side. And even if they would be arrogant, they would not have any problem to win.

Pick: Hertha BSC (-1,25) @1,94 (Pinnacle) , 3/10

3:2 FT

-1,5u

Hertha better but early injury from Herthas best player, they missed out some opportunities, and so on. RWO scored 2 times with 2 opportunities. But thats soccer.

[DSQUAREDLOL]

21.08.2010, 13:00h | FC Ingolstadt 04 - FC Augsburg

Little Derby in Ingolstadt .. I think it is the most obvious bet this weekend. Stakes are "only" 5/10 because it is the season start, I did not seen Ingolstadt so often and some Ingolstadt players are out. Moreover it is my goal to be more careful with stakes this year. But apart from that I can not imagine that Augsburg will take 3 points from Ingolstadt. First of all, it is a derby game and it is the first game in Ingolstadt news stadium. But it won't be a classic derby game because both teams have not so many fans but the ~8000 Ingolstadt fans will support their team.
Now let's look detail in Ingolstadts team. I have seen Ingolstadt in the playoffs against Rostock and they impressed me with their good defense. But they have a strong offensive also, they are the team with the most goals in 3. Liga last year. Ingolstadts goalkeeper is one of the best ones from the whole league. He even has Champions League experience with HSV and he is just a great goalkeeper, Sascha Kirschstein. Thats a big advantage. Their defenders are good, too. Pisot and Ruprecht were very solid in the "DFB Pokal" when Ingolstadt won 2:0 against Karlsruhe, their right defender Görlitz is new and maybe a few people still know him from his time with Bayern München. Malte Metzelder (brother from Schalke defender) is good, too and he plays backup. But in addition to the defense, I liked their offensive also in the DFB Pokal against Karlsruhe. Futacs is new from Werder Bremen and he is a young and talented player, Hartmann was great scorer last year. Both are strong.
However Ingolstadt has some injuries. The defenders Igwe, Gercaliu and Manuel Hartmann are injured but the three are new players and they were not part of the team so far. Furthermore attacker Gerber is out, too, but Futacs is a good substitute for him. The last injured player is their captain Leitl. I hope they can compensate this missing because he is their leader but I am sure they can because Görlitz, etc. are experienced, too.
So just a few words about their game versus Karlsruhe in the DFB Pokal. Ingolstadt won 2:0 and fully deserved. While defending very sovereign, they attacked and created good opportunities. A strong performance.
Now let's have a view into Augsburg. Augsburg is the most overrated team in the 2. Bundesliga. They were 3rd place last year but just due to their luck in their away matches. In the playoffs they played poor and lost derserved against Nurnberg. I think their players are too old and not technical skilled enough. Their weak point is their defense. Many very, very important defense regulars are out for them (De Roeck, Reinhardt, Vergaeh, Sinkiewicz). Their defense tommorow is not well attuned. Their defense is made up of Möhrle (too old, too slow) and their new defender from Holland, Gibril Sankoh, who made a bad impression to me so far. You could see how poor their defense is when they received 4 goal against versus an average 3. Liga team (SV Sandhausen) in the "DFB Pokal". Result was 4:4 and Augsburg won in the penalty shootout but quiet underserved.
In the offensive their best counter striker Traore is supsended (he is very good, VfB Stuttgart want to buy him). Otherwise they have Michael Thurk who scored 23 times last year but he is too old and he won't be able to repeat it, I am pretty sure.
So let's resume. Ingolstadt is a promoted team with a strong defense and the first game in their new stadium, Augsburg is traditional poor away and Augsburgs missings are graver. I can't figure that Augsburg would win.

Pick: FC Ingolstadt (+0,25) @1,88 (Pinnacle) , 5/10

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Originally Posted by DSQUAREDLOL

21.08.2010, 13:00h | FC Ingolstadt 04 - FC Augsburg

Little Derby in Ingolstadt .. I think it is the most obvious bet this weekend. Stakes are "only" 5/10 because it is the season start, I did not seen Ingolstadt so often and some Ingolstadt players are out. Moreover it is my goal to be more careful with stakes this year. But apart from that I can not imagine that Augsburg will take 3 points from Ingolstadt. First of all, it is a derby game and it is the first game in Ingolstadt news stadium. But it won't be a classic derby game because both teams have not so many fans but the ~8000 Ingolstadt fans will support their team.
Now let's look detail in Ingolstadts team. I have seen Ingolstadt in the playoffs against Rostock and they impressed me with their good defense. But they have a strong offensive also, they are the team with the most goals in 3. Liga last year. Ingolstadts goalkeeper is one of the best ones from the whole league. He even has Champions League experience with HSV and he is just a great goalkeeper, Sascha Kirschstein. Thats a big advantage. Their defenders are good, too. Pisot and Ruprecht were very solid in the "DFB Pokal" when Ingolstadt won 2:0 against Karlsruhe, their right defender Görlitz is new and maybe a few people still know him from his time with Bayern München. Malte Metzelder (brother from Schalke defender) is good, too and he plays backup. But in addition to the defense, I liked their offensive also in the DFB Pokal against Karlsruhe. Futacs is new from Werder Bremen and he is a young and talented player, Hartmann was great scorer last year. Both are strong.
However Ingolstadt has some injuries. The defenders Igwe, Gercaliu and Manuel Hartmann are injured but the three are new players and they were not part of the team so far. Furthermore attacker Gerber is out, too, but Futacs is a good substitute for him. The last injured player is their captain Leitl. I hope they can compensate this missing because he is their leader but I am sure they can because Görlitz, etc. are experienced, too.
So just a few words about their game versus Karlsruhe in the DFB Pokal. Ingolstadt won 2:0 and fully deserved. While defending very sovereign, they attacked and created good opportunities. A strong performance.
Now let's have a view into Augsburg. Augsburg is the most overrated team in the 2. Bundesliga. They were 3rd place last year but just due to their luck in their away matches. In the playoffs they played poor and lost derserved against Nurnberg. I think their players are too old and not technical skilled enough. Their weak point is their defense. Many very, very important defense regulars are out for them (De Roeck, Reinhardt, Vergaeh, Sinkiewicz). Their defense tommorow is not well attuned. Their defense is made up of Möhrle (too old, too slow) and their new defender from Holland, Gibril Sankoh, who made a bad impression to me so far. You could see how poor their defense is when they received 4 goal against versus an average 3. Liga team (SV Sandhausen) in the "DFB Pokal". Result was 4:4 and Augsburg won in the penalty shootout but quiet underserved.
In the offensive their best counter striker Traore is supsended (he is very good, VfB Stuttgart want to buy him). Otherwise they have Michael Thurk who scored 23 times last year but he is too old and he won't be able to repeat it, I am pretty sure.
So let's resume. Ingolstadt is a promoted team with a strong defense and the first game in their new stadium, Augsburg is traditional poor away and Augsburgs missings are graver. I can't figure that Augsburg would win.

Pick: FC Ingolstadt (+0,25) @1,88 (Pinnacle) , 5/10

1:4 70'

2 free kicks goal from 40m distance, wtf. I think Ingolstadts keeper was under influence of drugs although he is actually a good one.

[DSQUAREDLOL]

22.08.2010, 13:30h | Greuther Furth - Karlsruher SC

I like Greuther Furth and their style of playing. This time I have to back them.
Well, Furth lost two players: Caligiuri and Allagui, both to FSV Mainz. Caligiuri was a great midfield player but in the end of the season he was injured and Furth played even good without him. Allagui was the star from Greuther Furth but he was a bit arrogant and vain sometimes. He is a great striker, no doubt, but he was not working, he did not fight. So it is maybe not so bad that he changed. The new striker from Furth will be Kingsley Onuegbu. I know him very well because he played for my local team last year and I can assure that it was a good decision to buy them. Another "new" player is Dani Schahin, he was a reserve player last year but he played great test games and therefore he will get the chance to show his skills. He is quite young and he came from Hamburger SV but I heard good things about him. Apart from that Furth bought Kleine from Gladbach as defender and he will be the new captain. Kleine is very experienced and he already played for Furth some years ago. Let's have a look in Furths probably lineup:

Grün - Schröck, Kleine, Biliskov, Rahn - Pekovic - Nehrig, Haas, Müller - Onuegbu, Schahin

Grün is one of the best goalkeepers from the league, his saves are unique. Schröck is currently in a very good form, he played great test games. Kleine and Biliskov are too slow was defenders I think but Karlsruhes offensive is not good enough to put them under pressure. But all in all they are solid and experienced. Rahn is back after long injury, his freekicks/corners are his strength but he has problems against fast strikers. But Karlsruhe has no good wingers, so it won't be a problem for him. Pekovic is a fighter and an unfair player but he can destroy Karlsruhes build up play. Nehrig and Müller are very strong wingers, above all Müller. Nehrig is good, too, but he was injured for some months. His form is not so good yet but he is a strong player. Haas is a solid midfield player, not very offensive, but Furth make pressure through the wings. As I said above, Schahin and Onuegbu will probably play. Furths best striker Nöthe is doubtful but coach Buskens will decide some minuts before game start. Nöthe said in an interview that he is fit enough to play. So I trust him.

Still some words about Furths DFB Pokal game in Braunschweig. Braunschweig is a very offensive strong 3. Liga team and Furth had problems with their fast wingers. So Braunschweig create good opportunities but Karlsruhe has not so good wingers like Braunschweig (or they are injured). But Furth won in the extra time and all in all not undeserved.

The key to beat Furth is putting their defense under pressure with fast strikers. I do not see Karlsruhe putting Furths defense under pressure, Karlsruhe has currently no self-confident to do that.

Just some words about Karlsruhe. Karlsruhe wanted to fire their coach Schupp some months ago but they have not enough money to pay that. So he is still their coach but there is big trouble beetween Schupp and the management. The management bought a player (Rieß) without asking Schupp before. Apart from Rieß (who will not play because Schupp does not like him) Karlsruhe did not buy any players due to financial problems.
Their team is bad, they showed a bad performance when they lost away in the DFB Pokal against Ingolstadt. Their defense was their strength last year but this year it is different because important players left the club.
For example their main goalkeeper Miller and their shooting star Stindl changed to Hannover 96, their important defender Matip went back to FC Cologne. Karlsruhes team is weaker than last year. The atmosphere is not good due to the trouble beetween management and coach, their performances so far were poor.

I see a little draw-danger because Furths offensive is not as good as last year, maybe a 0:0, but all in all odds have value on Furth. -0,25 is a great choice (maybe under 2,5 also).

Pick: Fürth (-0,25) @2,01 (Pinnacle) , 5/10

[DSQUAREDLOL]

22.08.2010, 13:30h | Energie Cottbus - Fortuna D'dorf

I do not understand over/under odds in this game, I made bad experiences with over/under betting but I will have a try with small stakes because over 2,5 is more possible than under 2,5 goals in any case.
I will try to explain you why. Cottbus has a very, very strong offensive. Their offensive is their big strength. But they sold a few important key players, among others their great goalkeeper Gerhard Tremmel who plays for RB Salzburg now. Cottbus showed how strong they are when they beat my favourite team Hamburger SV 4:2 (and HSV played with best players). Petersen is their best play, top team Schalke 04 wants to buy him and I understand them. Next to him Sergiu Radu will probably start (Emil Jula is doubtful). Anyhow we can say that Cottbus' strikers are very strong. But the defense could be their big problem this year. Let's have a look into Cottbus back line:

Afriyie, Straith, Brzenska, Soma

Afriyie is a new defender from Denmark, I did not see him so far but I read in a Cottbus fan forum that he made a poor impression so far. But I know Adam Straith, he is a 19 years old defender who did a lot of mistakes in the defense last year. He is technical skilled but his problem is his non-existent experience. Brzenska is solid and experience but too slow against Dusseldorfs fast strikers (Wellington, Gaus, etc.). Soma is Asian and I do not know much about him, but I read that his strength is his offensive play.

Their new goalkeeper is Kirschbaum who was substitute goalkeeper from a 3. Liga team (Sandhausen). I do not know why Cottbus bought him but I am pretty sure that he is not as good as Tremmel was.

How do I expect Cottbus to play? Cottbus will attack. Their coach Wollitz is a coach who wants to see fast and offensive soccer. Cottbus is traditional good at home, their strikers are technical skilled and therefore I expect them to put Dusseldorf under pressure from the first until the last minut from the game.

But I have to mention that Cottbus defensive midfield player Kruska is doubtful, he is the heart of the team. But he will probably play. Striker Jula is doubtful, too, but coach Wollitz will decide a few minuts before the game if he will start or not.

Enough about Cottbus. Dusseldorf was my big disappointment in the test games. Their defense was their big strength last year but they sold their very, very important defense chief Bamba Anderson and his missing is so grave. They bought Lukimya from a 3. Liga team to substitue him but he won't be good enough to replace him. Their defense was their weak point so far. But Dusseldorf bought some good strikers like the technical strong player Wellington from 1899 Hoffenheim or Erfurts great Brasilian playmaker Rockenbach da Silva.

Dusseldorfs fans were not happy about Dusseldorfs poor defeat against average 3. Liga team Koblenz (0:1). But Dusseldorf played without their important midfielder Lambertz (he will return) and the weather was very bad (heavy rain). Anyway they want to make amends for their fans. So I expect them to play brave against Cottbus. It is not Dusseldorfs style to try to keep the 0:0, they are fired up for an away win and they want revenge for their 4:2 defeat away in Cottbus some months ago.

All in all I expect Cottbus to attack and Dusseldorfs defense is simply not good enough to resist the pressure. Dusseldorf has fast good offensive players to counter attack, Cottbus' defense is not operating well together so far. Odds from >2 are too high.


Pick: over 2.5 goals @2,00 (188bet) , 4/10

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Originally Posted by DSQUAREDLOL

22.08.2010, 13:30h | Energie Cottbus - Fortuna D'dorf

I do not understand over/under odds in this game, I made bad experiences with over/under betting but I will have a try with small stakes because over 2,5 is more possible than under 2,5 goals in any case.
I will try to explain you why. Cottbus has a very, very strong offensive. Their offensive is their big strength. But they sold a few important key players, among others their great goalkeeper Gerhard Tremmel who plays for RB Salzburg now. Cottbus showed how strong they are when they beat my favourite team Hamburger SV 4:2 (and HSV played with best players). Petersen is their best play, top team Schalke 04 wants to buy him and I understand them. Next to him Sergiu Radu will probably start (Emil Jula is doubtful). Anyhow we can say that Cottbus' strikers are very strong. But the defense could be their big problem this year. Let's have a look into Cottbus back line:

Afriyie, Straith, Brzenska, Soma

Afriyie is a new defender from Denmark, I did not see him so far but I read in a Cottbus fan forum that he made a poor impression so far. But I know Adam Straith, he is a 19 years old defender who did a lot of mistakes in the defense last year. He is technical skilled but his problem is his non-existent experience. Brzenska is solid and experience but too slow against Dusseldorfs fast strikers (Wellington, Gaus, etc.). Soma is Asian and I do not know much about him, but I read that his strength is his offensive play.

Their new goalkeeper is Kirschbaum who was substitute goalkeeper from a 3. Liga team (Sandhausen). I do not know why Cottbus bought him but I am pretty sure that he is not as good as Tremmel was.

How do I expect Cottbus to play? Cottbus will attack. Their coach Wollitz is a coach who wants to see fast and offensive soccer. Cottbus is traditional good at home, their strikers are technical skilled and therefore I expect them to put Dusseldorf under pressure from the first until the last minut from the game.

But I have to mention that Cottbus defensive midfield player Kruska is doubtful, he is the heart of the team. But he will probably play. Striker Jula is doubtful, too, but coach Wollitz will decide a few minuts before the game if he will start or not.

Enough about Cottbus. Dusseldorf was my big disappointment in the test games. Their defense was their big strength last year but they sold their very, very important defense chief Bamba Anderson and his missing is so grave. They bought Lukimya from a 3. Liga team to substitue him but he won't be good enough to replace him. Their defense was their weak point so far. But Dusseldorf bought some good strikers like the technical strong player Wellington from 1899 Hoffenheim or Erfurts great Brasilian playmaker Rockenbach da Silva.

Dusseldorfs fans were not happy about Dusseldorfs poor defeat against average 3. Liga team Koblenz (0:1). But Dusseldorf played without their important midfielder Lambertz (he will return) and the weather was very bad (heavy rain). Anyway they want to make amends for their fans. So I expect them to play brave against Cottbus. It is not Dusseldorfs style to try to keep the 0:0, they are fired up for an away win and they want revenge for their 4:2 defeat away in Cottbus some months ago.

All in all I expect Cottbus to attack and Dusseldorfs defense is simply not good enough to resist the pressure. Dusseldorf has fast good offensive players to counter attack, Cottbus' defense is not operating well together so far. Odds from >2 are too high.


Pick: over 2.5 goals @2,00 (188bet) , 4/10

FT 2:0

-4u

That game shows why I actually hate betting on over goals. Düsseldorf had some great opportunities, that game could have been an easy 3:2 or 2:2. But that's betting.