Germany, 19.03-22.03

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Last weekend was very great for me and I hope to keep it on. I am opening this thread very early because I think that the odds will drop heavy soon. Bielefeld without a coach at the moment and with a contract penalty and with 4 points less now. That is a very hard punishment for them because their promotion hopes are disappeared now finally:

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Saturday, 20.03.2010: Arminia Bielefeld - SC Paderborn

DFL zieht Bielefeld vier Punkte ab

Die Deutsche Fußball-Liga hat Zweitligist Arminia Bielefeld mit einer Vertragsstrafe belegt. Demnach werden den Ostwestfalen zum Ende der laufenden Saison vier Punkte abgezogen. Die Arminia hat die Strafe akzeptiert. In der Tabelle hat der DSC derzeit sechs Punkte Rückstand zum dritten Platz, der nach Saisonende zu Aufstiegsspielen gegen den Drittletzten der Ersten Liga berechtigt. Mit vier Punkten weniger auf dem Konto sind die Ostwestfalen hinsichtlich einer Rückkehr ins Oberhaus nun praktisch chancenlos. Quelle: kicker.de (leicht gekürzt)

I had to take the odds today yet because I think that the odds will drop soon.

Arminia Bielefeld with a contract penalty and from now on 4 points less in the table. It will not be possible anymore to be promoted after the season because they are 10 points behind now to a promotion place instead of 6 points. Furthermore Bielefeld has not got a new coach after they fired their coach Gerstner and Dammeier is still the interim coach. Last Friday Bielefeld lost 2:1 away in Aachen and the defense was bad again. I expected a "new coach effect" but I was disappointed because Bielefeld played without any self-confidence and the players were very insecured. Now their high hopes that they would be promoted after the season are disappeared and I think that it will be a shock for the team. Their last performances were poor anyway and particularly the defense was very bad at last. Furthermore the fans are very discontent at the moment.

On the other hand Paderborn is in the safe midfield of the table and they played a very good season. Pre-season most people thought that they would be relegated but they were one of the biggest suprise in the whole league. This match is a derby game, too and the most important match for Paderborn in the whole season. A lot of fans from Paderborn are expected. Paderborn will play offensive because there is nothing to lose for them and although they are in the midfield their performances at last were very passional.

Bielefeld is shocked at the moment and there is a heavy chaos at the moment. Arminia Bielefeld is without a real coach at the moment and their hopes to a promotion place are disappeared now. In contrary Paderborn is very motivated and they want to win the most important match of the whole season.

Prediction: SC PADERBORN AHC 0 (DRAW NO BET) @3,25 (betsson) | MEDIUM

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Other previews will be published tommorow or at least on Thursday.

Lets hope for a good weekend again.

[Bangkokbob]

Ok, I better hurry up then...

[DSQUAREDLOL]

My detailed previews about the other games will be published on Thursday by the way.

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Last weekend was amazing and maybe I'll keep it on.

Friday:

TuS Koblenz (17th) - Greuther Furth (9th) - I will back Koblenz again. Furth is the better side, no doubt but they played very spiritless lastly while Koblenz plays passional.
Energie Cottbus (13th) - St. Pauli (3rd) - I am really not a fan from over/under betting but I must take over 2,5 goals here. Totally wrong quotation by the bookies here. Both teams are good offensive sides and St. Paulis defense was poor lastly.
Hansa Rostock (15th) - MSV Duisburg (6th) - Rostock with big trouble and a new coach again (the third new coach in this season). But Duisburg was very poor on Monday. I will not touch it.

Saturday:

Arminia Bielefeld (6th) - SC Paderborn (9th) - I've said something about the game in the first post.
FC Augsburg (2nd) - RW Ahlen (18th) - That should be an easy home win but the odds are too short.

Sunday:

Rot-Weiss Oberhausen (14th) - Karlsruher SC (11th) - both sides are currently very strong and I will not bet against a team here. No-Bet.
Union Berlin (10th) - Alemannia Aachen (12th) - Berlin is currently poor but Aachen is bad away lastly, too. No-Bet here again.
1860 Munich (7th) - FSV Frankfurt (16th) - 1860 with 2 consecutive wins but Frankfurt is unbeaten 7 games in a row. I think that 1860 will win this but the odds aren't good enough.

Monday:

Fortuna Duesseldorf (4th) - K'lautern (1st) - Kaiserslautern is much better anyway but Dusseldorf is a very strong home side. But actually I can not see K'lautern losing here but I will await team news and so on.

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My English is not good enough to write detailed previews. If you want to see a detailed preview in German then look at my blog:

benny1887 betting blog - "Germany 2. Bundesliga " @ BLOGABET.COM

FRIDAY: TuS Koblenz - Greuther Furth

Zu Beginn erstmal einige Worte zu TuS Koblenz. Tabellarisch gesehen befindet sich Koblenz in einer äußerst bedrohlichen Situation und im Grunde genommen ist jedes Spiel ein Endspiel für die TuS. Letzten Freitag wurde in Ahlen super gekämpft und am Ende auch aufgrund der guten Defensivleistung verdient mit 2:0 gewonnen. Besonders Torwart David Yelldell verlieh der Sander-Elf deutlich mehr Sicherheit als sein Ersatz Paucken. Dass Yelldell zurück im Team ist, hat sich also äußerst positiv ausgewirkt. Spielerisch sehe ich Koblenz nach wie vor als nicht so schwach wie es viele vermuten. Mit Krontiris oder auch Gunkel befinden sich durchaus viele gute und erfahrene Akteure in den Reihen der Koblenzer und vorne hat man zB. mit Kapllani auch Qualität zu bieten. Oft mangelte es bei Koblenz aber auch an der mangelhaften Chancenverwertung oder auch gegen Augsburg hatte man viel Pech, als man 80 Minuten gleichwertig war und dann ein unglückliches Gegentor kassierte. Abschließend lässt sich auf jeden Fall sagen, dass das Spiel vor heimischem Publikum für Koblenz sehr, sehr wichtig ist. Kämpferisch stimmt es bei Koblenz zu 100%, spielerisch ist wie gesagt Potenzial da. Zu Hause ist Koblenz auch durchaus mal in der Lage ein stärkeres Team nieder zu fighten, wie zB. vor einigen Wochen beim 1:0 gegen Düsseldorf.
Fürth hingegen ist ein relativ krasser Kontrast gegenüber Koblenz. Mit den ersten Spielen starteten die Franken furios in die Rückrunde, nach dem Pokalaus wurden aber nur noch durchwachsene Leistungen gezeigt. Der Büskens-Effekt ist scheinbar verpufft. Vor allem offensiv wird das Potenzial nicht mehr wirklich genutzt und mir scheint es manchmal sogar fast ein wenig lustlos, was die Fürther sich da zusammenspielen. Gegen die Abstiegskanidaten Oberhausen und Rostock wurde zuletzt zwar gewonnen, ABER jedes mal äußerst glücklich und auch durchaus unverdient. Gegen Düsseldorf auswärts dann ordentlich gespielt (aufgrund der Flutlichtatmosphäre usw. wohl etwas motivierter), gegen Berlin dann in der 60. Minute die erste Torchance gehabt und sich den Ball einfach nur hin und her geschoben. Es mangelt bei Fürth derzeit eindeutig an der Leidenschaft, ich habe das Gefühl, dass sie mit der Saison abgeschlossen haben und dass sie die Saison einfach ordentlich zu Ende bringen wollen. Mit Allagui kehrt natürlich der beste Stürmer gegen Koblenz zurück, aber ob er im Alleingang das Spiel beleben kann wage ich mal zu bezweifeln, weil er ja auch eher ein Knipser ist und nicht sonderlich spielstark. Wörle ist nach wie vor verletzt, allerdings ist der vorraussichtliche Ausfall von Nehrig deutlich schlimmer, weil er einer der Aktivsten vorne war.
Ich denke, dass man abschließend sagen kann, dass hier die Einstellung entscheiden wird. Koblenz wird um sein Leben kämpfen und Fürth wird mit einer Leistung wie gegen Oberhausen oder auch Berlin hier richtig auf die Nase fallen. Ich kann mir nicht vorstellen, dass Fürth wieder so ein unfassbares Glück hat und Koblenz weiß genau, dass man punkten muss. Und das wird vor heimischem Publikum gewählt. Ich entscheide mich für das +0,25, sodass ich bei einem X einen kleinen aber feinen Gewinn habe und bei dem Heimsieg dann die volle Auszahlung.-

Koblenz with a very important away win in Ahlen last Friday and with a great defense performance. The main goal keeper David Yelldell returned to the team and he seemed to be very aplomb and much better than the 2nd goalkeeper. Koblenz was really struggling and their attitude is great. Koblenz need a win at home definite and the fans will support them. Koblenz sometimes beat good sides at home like Düsseldorf (4th) with struggling and a passional attitude. But they have got some good and experienced players, too, for example Gunkel, Kapllani or Krontiris. All in all I am very sure that Koblenz will fight here and they want to win.
Furth is the opposite. They are in the safe midfield and their last results were good but their performances were poor. The played very lethargic and I had noticed that their attitude is wrong. Their 1:0-wins against Oberhausen and poor Rostock were undeserved and the performance on last Friday against average Berlin (0:0) was poor: Furth was without a target shot until the 60th minut!
I think that the attitude will the crucial factor. Koblenz will run for their life while Furth plays lethargic. I can not see Koblenz losing here and I expect a home win. I took AH +0,25. That means that I would have got small earnings if it would be a draw and the full winning if Koblenz would win (half stake on 1X and other half stake on DNB Koblenz).

Prediction: TUS KOBLENZ AHC +0,25 @1,87 (188bet) / MEDIUM

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FRIDAY: Energie Cottbus - St. Pauli

Gleich vorneweg: Ich hasse over/under Wetten eigentlich total, aber als ich hier die Quote sah, musste ich erstmal meine Augen reiben. Ich habe hier höchstens eine Quote von 1,75-1,80 erwartet, aber doch keine Quote über 2. Das Over ist hier weitaus wahrscheinlicher, als es die Quoten vermuten lassen. Warum versuche ich nun kurz zu erläutern: Cottbus' Stärken liegen ganz klar in der Offensive, bzw. die ganze Philosophie von Trainer Pele Wollitz ist darauf ausgelegt. Cottbus hat sich zuletzt ja auch wieder etwas gefangen, vor allem beim 3:1-Heimerfolg über Aachen konnte man wirklich mal überzeugen. Und selbst bei der 4:1-Niederlage in Kaiserslautern wurde nicht schlecht gespielt und auch da gab es gegen die Beton-Abwehr von FCK durchaus Möglichkeiten. Fakt ist aber natürlich, dass Cottbus gegen St. Pauli nicht vor heimischem Publikum hinten drin stehen wird oder so. Man wartet sehnlich auf den Sieg, der den Klassenerhalt endgültig besiegeln würde und man hat nicht viel zu verlieren. Denn jeder in der Lausitz weiß genau, dass wohl noch genau ein Sieg zum Klassenerhalt nötig ist. Auf jeden Fall wird Cottbus hier also offensiv spielen, weil das Publikum ein defensives Cottbus nicht dulden würde und weil man halt nix zu verlieren hat. Es fehlen zwar eine Handvoll Stammspieler und mit Jula auch einer der besten Stürmer, aber bei Julas aktueller Form kann sein Fehlen nicht schaden. Man wird wohl mit Petersen und Kweuke stürmen (wobei ich von Kweuke nicht viel halte). Im Mittelfeld hat man dann zB. noch den torgefährlichen Chinesen Shao, der immer mal für ein Tor gut ist. Die Abwehr hingegen machte auch in Kaiserslautern vor allem nach Standarts nicht den sichersten Eindruck und wird gegen offensivstarke St. Paulianer wohl vor Probleme gestellt. Lange Rede, kurzer Sinn: Cottbus wird hier offensiv spielen, keine Frage.
Bei St. Pauli hingegen konnte ich zuletzt meinen Augen nicht trauen. Gegen Oberhausen war die ganze Defensive eine absolute Katastrophe, die Offensive beim 5:3-Erfolg aber umso besser. Laut Stanislawski wurde ja die viel zitierte "Reset-Taste" gedrückt und mit dem Spiel gegen Oberhausen begann angeblich die Saison neu. Mit einigen anderen Psychotricks (nicht mehr im Millerntor, sondern wo anders trainieren, usw.) hat Stanislawski die St. Paulianer wieder auf die Gewinnerstraße gebracht. Aber ehrlich gesagt weiß ich nicht, ob Stanislawski mit dem Spiel gegen Oberhausen zufrieden war. Offensiv top - keine Frage - aber in der Abwehr war das Defensivverhalten stellenweise katastrophal. So oft geführt und dann immer wieder Gegentore bekommen.. die Abwehr war zuletzt auf jeden Fall total schlecht unterwegs. Offensiv und zumeist auch spielerisch gehören die Hamburger aber natürlich nach wie vor zu der Creme de la Creme der Liga. Offensivmann Hennings wird wohl noch einmal passen müssen, aber auch Naki ist in der Offensive brandgefährlich. Mit Gunesch fehlt in der Abwehr übrigens noch ein äußerst wichtiger Mann. Mit einem Sieg könnte man einen ganz wichtigen Schritt in Richtung Erstklassigkeit machen und den Anschluss an Augsburg halten. Und an der Tatsache, dass St. Pauli in Cottbus von der ersten Minute an Offensivfußball spielen wird, wird wohl kein Zweifel bestehen. Das over 2,5 goals hat hier deutlich mehr als 50% und beinhaltet reichlich Value.

First of all I am not a fan from over or under betting but the odds are too huge to miss them out. I was expecting odds about 1,75~ or something and I was confused when I saw those pretty huge odds. A lot of goals are guaranteed in this match. Cottbus is on the 13th place but actually not in relegation danger. But they need 1 win more if they want to be on the safe side. Their offensive is their strength, no doubt. Last Sunday they lost 4-1 against Kaiserslautern but they actually did not play bad but they had some misfortune with doubtful referee decisions. Cottbus will play offensive at home because the fans want to have a home win.
The other side is St. Pauli. Last weekend they won 5:3 against Oberhausen (14th) and the offensive was great again. But the defense was a debacle. Maybe on reason is that two defenders (Rothenbach and since last Sunday Gunesch) are injured and the defense gives the impression that it is very insecured. But St. Pauli is the best offensive side of the whole league with some great strikers like Marius Ebbers, Deniz Naki and so on. A win would be really important for St. Pauli if they want to be promoted and they will play very offensive.
I expect a lot of goals here. Both sides want to win and both sides have got bad defenses. Cottbus has got nothing to lose and they want to show a good performance at home while St. Pauli wants an away win. The odds are too huge to miss them out.

Prediction: OVER 2,5 GOALS @2,02 (bet365) | MEDIUM

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Saturday, 20.03.2010: Arminia Bielefeld - SC Paderborn

Quote:

DFL zieht Bielefeld vier Punkte ab

Die Deutsche Fußball-Liga hat Zweitligist Arminia Bielefeld mit einer Vertragsstrafe belegt. Demnach werden den Ostwestfalen zum Ende der laufenden Saison vier Punkte abgezogen. Die Arminia hat die Strafe akzeptiert. In der Tabelle hat der DSC derzeit sechs Punkte Rückstand zum dritten Platz, der nach Saisonende zu Aufstiegsspielen gegen den Drittletzten der Ersten Liga berechtigt. Mit vier Punkten weniger auf dem Konto sind die Ostwestfalen hinsichtlich einer Rückkehr ins Oberhaus nun praktisch chancenlos. Quelle: kicker.de (leicht gekürzt)

I had to take the odds today yet because I think that the odds will drop soon.

Arminia Bielefeld with a contract penalty and from now on 4 points less in the table. It will not be possible anymore to be promoted after the season because they are 10 points behind now to a promotion place instead of 6 points. Furthermore Bielefeld has not got a new coach after they fired their coach Gerstner and Dammeier is still the interim coach. Last Friday Bielefeld lost 2:1 away in Aachen and the defense was bad again. I expected a "new coach effect" but I was disappointed because Bielefeld played without any self-confidence and the players were very insecured. Now their high hopes that they would be promoted after the season are disappeared and I think that it will be a shock for the team. Their last performances were poor anyway and particularly the defense was very bad at last. Furthermore the fans are very discontent at the moment.

On the other hand Paderborn is in the safe midfield of the table and they played a very good season. Pre-season most people thought that they would be relegated but they were one of the biggest suprise in the whole league. This match is a derby game, too and the most important match for Paderborn in the whole season. A lot of fans from Paderborn are expected. Paderborn will play offensive because there is nothing to lose for them and although they are in the midfield their performances at last were very passional.

Bielefeld is shocked at the moment and there is a heavy chaos at the moment. Arminia Bielefeld is without a real coach at the moment and their hopes to a promotion place are disappeared now. In contrary Paderborn is very motivated and they want to win the most important match of the whole season.

Prediction: SC PADERBORN AHC 0 (DRAW NO BET) @3,25 (betsson) | MEDIUM ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

That was everything. Good luck to TDP-community!

[trickrick]

I certainly like your Koblenz bet (particularly having had them last week). Surprised that they aren't favourites for this?

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Originally Posted by trickrick

I certainly like your Koblenz bet (particularly having had them last week). Surprised that they aren't favourites for this?

Furth is the stronger side but the game is much more important for Koblenz and Furths performances were really poor lastly .. odds are good, too.

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Good news: Furths best striker Sami Allagui got injured this morning in the training and he will not play.

[george45]

I am in DSQ

[DSQUAREDLOL]

HT results:

Koblenz 1:0 Furth - amazing performance by TuS Koblenz! Standing ovations from the fans .. Furth is poor ..

Cottbus 0:0 St. Pauli - I hate over 2,5 betting .. the players hit the bar a few times and particularly Cottbus had good opportunities. But still 45 minuts left.

[HastGill1]

I've never enjoyed betting on under or over 2.5..i think most of the time I should decide on it then bet the opposite way! Think I would have been more successful this way

[cummo13]

ye good call i hav koblenz on to me bets , so lets hope they keep it going

[cummo13]

i new i should of did the other match, an st paul dam. u get 2 more goals in that match good luck 2

[trickrick]

2-0 to Koblenz with 20 minutes to go..

I wish we could clone a DSQ for every world league !!!

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Originally Posted by DSQUAREDLOL

FRIDAY: Energie Cottbus - St. Pauli

First of all I am not a fan from over or under betting but the odds are too huge to miss them out. I was expecting odds about 1,75~ or something and I was confused when I saw those pretty huge odds. A lot of goals are guaranteed in this match. Cottbus is on the 13th place but actually not in relegation danger. But they need 1 win more if they want to be on the safe side. Their offensive is their strength, no doubt. Last Sunday they lost 4-1 against Kaiserslautern but they actually did not play bad but they had some misfortune with doubtful referee decisions. Cottbus will play offensive at home because the fans want to have a home win.
The other side is St. Pauli. Last weekend they won 5:3 against Oberhausen (14th) and the offensive was great again. But the defense was a debacle. Maybe on reason is that two defenders (Rothenbach and since last Sunday Gunesch) are injured and the defense gives the impression that it is very insecured. But St. Pauli is the best offensive side of the whole league with some great strikers like Marius Ebbers, Deniz Naki and so on. A win would be really important for St. Pauli if they want to be promoted and they will play very offensive.
I expect a lot of goals here. Both sides want to win and both sides have got bad defenses. Cottbus has got nothing to lose and they want to show a good performance at home while St. Pauli wants an away win. The odds are too huge to miss them out.

Prediction: OVER 2,5 GOALS @2,02 (bet365) | MEDIUM

0:1 FT.
That really sucks.. St. Paulis goalkeeper with the best game of his life obvious, Cottbus had a lot of opportunities but even St. Pauli had great counter attack opportunities.
That is the reason why I actually do not like over/under betting .. ^^
But the odds included value and so I do not have regrets.
But sorry to all followers!

[DSQUAREDLOL]

Originally Posted by DSQUAREDLOL

FRIDAY: TuS Koblenz - Greuther Furth



Koblenz with a very important away win in Ahlen last Friday and with a great defense performance. The main goal keeper David Yelldell returned to the team and he seemed to be very aplomb and much better than the 2nd goalkeeper. Koblenz was really struggling and their attitude is great. Koblenz need a win at home definite and the fans will support them. Koblenz sometimes beat good sides at home like Düsseldorf (4th) with struggling and a passional attitude. But they have got some good and experienced players, too, for example Gunkel, Kapllani or Krontiris. All in all I am very sure that Koblenz will fight here and they want to win.
Furth is the opposite. They are in the safe midfield and their last results were good but their performances were poor. The played very lethargic and I had noticed that their attitude is wrong. Their 1:0-wins against Oberhausen and poor Rostock were undeserved and the performance on last Friday against average Berlin (0:0) was poor: Furth was without a target shot until the 60th minut!
I think that the attitude will the crucial factor. Koblenz will run for their life while Furth plays lethargic. I can not see Koblenz losing here and I expect a home win. I took AH +0,25. That means that I would have got small earnings if it would be a draw and the full winning if Koblenz would win (half stake on 1X and other half stake on DNB Koblenz).

Prediction: TUS KOBLENZ AHC +0,25 @1,87 (188bet) / MEDIUM (+)

2:0 FT.

Koblenz really much better and Furth was as poor as last weeks but this time Furth was not so lucky.