Poland 19-21 Mar

[Hobbit]

It is quite early yet but not agreeing with the odds makers have to take the bet as early as I can.

Arka Gdynia - Cracovia Krakow DNB 1 @1.82 7/10 SBO
42-32-26

My estiamtions are clear here and my fair line is 0:1/4. So far after 3 rounds played Arka lost two home games, and won one road one, against current champs - Wisla. It suggests they can not play at home loosing to Ruch 0-3 and Zaglebie last weekend 0-2. Everybody who saw both of those games must agree that Arka did not deserve any of them. Conceded 5 goals, failed to score even once having more goal chances than opponnets. This is football, it happens, but will it happen 3rd time in a row? Do not think, luck for visitors has to end some day and I believe it will be on Friday. Home side knows it is getting harder and pts at home are crucial in fight for salvation. They will not have any suspensions and if nothing changes on trainings, they will have no important injuries either. This synthetic pitch they use this round was very unlucky for them thus far but what I point out once again, they were playing well and they were creating chances to score. However in both games they made their opponents keepers are true heroes, doing unforced defensive errors themselves. They have to be more steady at the back and this time goals will come, the new guy upfront Tshibamba is doing very well, very good signing, dangerous upfront and should break the deadlock this time. What should or could help them, is that Cracovia has both quite weak keepers, both Cabaj and Merda tend to do at least one silly mistake per game. All in all Arka should be the dominant side here.

Cracovia last weekend won 3-0 against Korona at home. Looks like a flawless victory however it was not as easy as it looks like. Korona had good opening but then not understanbly for me decided to switch into defensive mode. Game got even and Cracovia just before the break took one free kick and scored, then lucky deflected shot made it 2-0 and game was over. On this level to bounce back from 0-2 is to hard. On road though Cracovia is not as strong as in Krakow. Lost in Poznan 1-3 being 1-0 up, but never looked like getting anything from that game. Lech was fully dominant and had no fear to loose pts. Cracovia is an average side and on road is not playing that good. They might have problems with squad as well. Already this weekend because of injuries, they lacked 4 important starters. Slusarski is long term injury, but Baran, Sacha and new guy Suvorov are important cells of this team. At this time I am not sure if the come back till Friday. Definitely centre back Polczak will be suspended which is a blow. Cracovia has 5 pts more than Arka and will rather rely on their home games. Will approach this one with defensive mode I believe and if they miss any of the 3 mentioned injuries again, they will struggle even more as Arka will be fully determined to collect all 3 pts.

Arka at home has a good stats against Cracovia and that is not a surprise to me. Now they need pts more than visitors and expect them to finally obtain a 3 pointer at home. This synthetic grass was not a help thus far, but they should adapt better with every next game and for visitors that will remain a new thing. Last 4 games in Gdynia, 3 times Arka won, 1 draw. Last season we had a 0:1/2 line and I still was on Arka, now DNB, but this teams did not change that much to see such a big move against Arka.

I would set the line already at -0.25 and even if it switches to this one I still believe will drop on Arka as they have the better chances here to win. At DNB though is gold for me.

Good Luck,
Hob

[Hobbit]

It is 19-21 March of course, think can not change it now so if mods could that. Thx

[Hobbit]

Arka was supposed to play 3 home games without fans, against Ruch, Zaglebie and Cracovia. However their request to postpon part of the penalty has been dealt positively and against Cracovia finally will feel fans support. I like this bet even more now.

[slick]

I'll do it now Hobbit, thought it a bit strange having two threads with the same title, good luck m8 with your picks.

[Hobbit]

From 3 injured players in Cracovia, 2 are back, offensive Suvorov missing. Golinski just ready to play around 20min, still out long term Slusarski + suspended Polczak. All in all Arka chances today looks solid. They will miss though Siebert as far as I know, a problem but the only one.

[Hobbit]

Arka 2-0 FT, for good start of the weekend

[trickrick]

Great stuff Hobbit

[Hobbit]

2nd game today, I was waiting till final lineup as two key Ruch players were rated 50/50, both playing and in this circumstances I do not agree with that huge drop on Belchatow. I am on Ruch Chorzow DNB @2.13

[Hobbit]

And Ruch Chorzow 1-0 FT, Ole!

[trickrick]

Well done - Seems to be a good tipping and profitable night (which is unusual for me on a Friday night!)

[Hobbit]

Being Piast fan myself it is sad to see us not winning round after round, thing is that those results are not undeserved. We tend to make so many stupid mistakes. Kwapisz between the posts, never liked him and never will I think. The quality to stay in league indeed seems to be in this team, I like the midfield, like Olszar and Paluchowski upfront, but still something is not working. Mental problem, it has to be it as I see no other explanation.

Kowalski and Olszar are out for Piast. Imo Gamla as cb can do very well, and this fat and slow Kowalski is overrated. Olszar is not scoring lately but he does not have to many chances at all, defnitely number 1 forward in Piast and a miss. Hope though Poluchowski will have a chance to punch Polonia.

In general seeing both teams playing, I see Polonia as clearly better one, much better passing and faster actions. We lack this as hell, and today it depends a lot how Polonia treats this game. If they take it easy being safe and might want to help a neighbour in need that yup we shoul win it. If they take it 100% seriously Piast's win aint so sure.

About Polonia on road, well this games are still being played in Wodzislaw, despite Piast playing there already 2nd season, it is far from home ground.

Still I believe we can win it, either win or loose, do not think draw would happen so if I was to pick a team, Piast would it be. I would go for straight home win but small stakes.

Piast Gliwice @2.67 at Pinnacle

[Hobbit]

Piast Gliwice 1-0 FT good weekend

[george45]

great job Hobbit