Poland 12-14 Mar

[Hobbit]

Cracovia Krakow (-0.25) - Korona Kielce 1 @2.03 SBO

Early market action for me. This odds are to high imo. Part of the reason has to be the fact that Korona won both opening games, while Cracovia lost both. Still the circumstances were so different for any of them. Korona had two home games against mid table opposition and they are a typical home side. So twice 1-0 wins were not surprises after all. Still they did not impress and both times goal came same way from free kicks. On road they will struggle.

Cracovia on the other hand was playing against two top sides in league, against Legia at home they were playing great, I will dare to say great as I did not see Cracovia playing like that for a long time. Still they lost the game 1-2 in a way I can not explain. Hit post twice, hit the bar once and had some other chances to extend their 1-0 lead and then in 3mins lost two goals. Much better team lost. 2nd game was in Poznan against at the moment the best team in league, they did not stand a chance there and nobody blame them.

Now back in Krakow, without any suspensions and probably with only already injured players. Important Mierzejewski is back after suspension and if they repeat the performance from Legia home game, they will win it.

In Europe odds on 1 are around 2.10, that is why much better option is asian line -0.25 , with almost same odds and still some cover in case of draw.

[Hobbit]

Polonia Warszawa - Ruch Chorzow 1 @2.20 Unibet

Some might remember I took Polonia in first their home game against Lech and got heavilly beaten. Well, now can say that betting against Lech is a suicide as they stroke form perfectly. Still, I will repeat myself that Polonia does not belong to red zone positions. They have a team that can easily compete with top part of the table, not top3 sides yet, but the rest for sure. Their biggest problem is upfront, this line is weak and even new signings do not shine yet. But defense and mifield is very strong and at home they should be strong this round. No problems with supsensions or injuries for them.

Ruch on the other hand is having a terrific season, this team is struggling with money issues but is very well united and that brings results + a great coach knowing how to set things up. Still imo there is no way for them to compete with top3 and even Belchatow is imo stronger, they did hell of a job but this round do not think will be as impressive as the previous one. They struggled last round against Zaglebie and deservedly lost (still must be said that weather conditions were terrible and that reflected the game). But what makes things worse for them, is that their best forward and very influential player NIedzielan, got injured and might even miss the whole round. This is a huge blow.

Polonia has to start winning, and has to do it soon. They are on relegation position now, but home games should bring the goods soon. Ruch is beatable and I believe Polonia this time will do it.

[yorkieacer]

I have to completly disagree with you about Korona i watched the game myself, they were great in defence and looked really threatoning every time they went forward. They had much more of the ball a goal disallowed which shouldnt of been and were the much stronger team. I would go with them to beat Krakow actually @ 3.00. Its just my opinon

[Hobbit]

It is nice to see that someone is watching polish league hehe
I watched both Korona and Cracovia games and I keep what I said.
Korona was disallowed a goal but Polonia should have got a penal in 80', clear one.
And just like I said Korona at home and Korona on road are different teams, they heavily rely on one player Edi and set piecies.
Imo Cracovia has 45% to win the game and I am on them.
So can not wish U luck on Korona this time.

Regards,
Hob

[yorkieacer]

I keep a close eye on the Polish league and watch as many of the games as i can, Its a good money earning league. I agree with you on the Ruch match though, have you got any more thoughts on the league matches this weekend?

[Hobbit]

Friday games:

About Odra I would not be so sure about it (another big betting on them), last season in same situation Odra was also supposed to beat Piast and lost the game. As a dog they fought well, as a fav they failed shamefully against Lechia. Now they are favs again under huge pressure. it did not work out last time, not so sure it will this time. About Kowalczyk and Wilczek, the first one is replaceable and Wilczek as well as Piast would miss him, in central midfield there is the biggest rivarly in the team, there are option. Absolutely not saying to back Piast, just I see no value at all in odds on Odra. Especially knowing it is not so really road games for Piast as they play their home games there 2nd season already.

Could agree with a bet on Wisla, -0.25 line here, while last time they came there was -3/4. Still situation changed, Jaga improved, the transfer of Grzyb was terrific for them to make the midfield much stronger. At home Jagiellonia is not loosing games, just one defeat to Lech, but only can blame themselves being 2-0 up and loosing 2-3. Wisla on the other hand played two pathetic games so far this round so I see no love for them untill they improve. Key players after serious injuries are just crap so far. Anyway good luck for Wisla backers, for me a game to stay away.

[kompressaur]

In Europe odds on 1 are around 2.10, that is why much better option is asian line -0.25 , with almost same odds and still some cover in case of draw

thats a good price you got there Hobs. im getting slightly less than even money. good to see yorkie adding his thoughts. I'll still have to follow the Hobs im afraid yorkie. right imk away to fix someones computer for an hour then im gonna get stuck into this weekends european action.

[Hobbit]

Just did Wisla Krakow -0.25 @2.05 SBO

They are on two lost games, but still league champs and just can not remind myself when they lost 3 in a row, they have bigger potential and need a win badly. -3/4 line was last season, -0.25 at this price is definitely doable.

[soroz30]

odra 2:0

[Hobbit]

Yes 2-0 in a very shity game. Sad to watch, hope this one is better.

[Hobbit]

We can say Wisla did it again, very good first half but 2nd was a piss poor one. Though it has to be said that Jagiellonia is playing last rounds like a top league side.

About Cracovia bet, seems like an early rush was not the brightest idea in this game. Hosts will mis couple of players injured before the game. For those who did not get involved yet, do not do it. Personally I do not cover my bets and still think at home Cracovia has a decent chance to win, but not so confident any more.

[Hobbit]

Just to sum up the weekend.

Cracovia even with depleted side managed to trash Korona but it was an even game till the goal came, 3-0 is a bit to harsh, though deserved.

With Polonia we were unlucky yorkie, Ruch scored a goal from 1m offside. And during the game had one good chance, most of the time only disturbing Polonia.

Personally got overexcited about Wisla's chances, very good first half. But in 2nd Jaga was better and a draw was fair result. Well after the game Wisla's coach got sacked, it says everything about their ambtions to defend the title.

[SPERRL]

I parlayed both as unders.