Spanish football 6-7 September

[rcgills]

Didn't think I was going to be interested in today's games in Segunda, but thinking about it a bit more, I reckon Hercules are worth a shot today. Delibasic is an excellent signing for them, goals weren't a problem for them last season (66 goals in 42 games, top scorers in Segunda), and if anything the signing of Delibasic IMO leaves them looking even stronger up front.

Rayo had a good result last weekend with a home win over Murcia, a side that were 2 divisions above them last season. However, I watched most of the match and although Murcia didn't play particularly well, they still created a fair few chances, but their finishing let them down. I wouldn't expect Hercules to be so generous given similar chances.

Small stakes as it's still very early days in the season, but I'll chance Hercules here. Even smaller stakes as it's a very long shot, but the 9.5 Sporting Odds are offering on Hercules (-2 Euro hcp) looks very tempting - from last week's 3-0 win away to Cordoba, it would seem Hercules aren't looking to sit back and defend when they're in front.

Hercules @ 2.18 1.25pts
Hercules (-2) @ 9.5 0.5pts

Am also on Sestao River in Segunda B group 1 (bit late here, kicks off at 17:30 Spanish time, i.e. in about 30 minutes). They got a good result against one of the stronger teams in the group on the opening day, winning 2-1 against a Pontevedra side that's finished top 2 in each of the last 3 seasons. Sestao River were 3rd in the "away" table for their group last season, finishing with a 6-6-7 record and a positive goal difference suggesting they're no mugs away from home.

Deportivo B started off with a defeat away to Lemona. They were strong at home last season, 11-6-2, but the price on Sestao River is too big IMO at such an early stage in the season.

Deportivo B v Sestao River @ 4.75 1pt

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by rcgills

Hercules @ 2.18 1.25pts 1-1, -1.25pts
Hercules (-2) @ 9.5 0.5pts -0.5pts
Deportivo B v Sestao River @ 4.75 1pt 0-1, +3.75pts

2pts up for the day there.

Shame Hercules let me down. Saw bits of the game, Hercules missed a couple of decent chances, one of them a sitter, while it was still 0-0. Ended up equalising with an own goal, I think, right at the end.

Not much time to write a great deal at the moment, but have got quite a few away sides tomorrow in Segunda B which I think stand as good a chance as Sestao River did today, at similar prices. Have gone with 0.5pts each on Lugo @ 4.5, Real Union Irun @ 5.5, Murcia B @ 5.5, Vecindario @ 5.5, Ontinyent @ 4, Baleares @ 4.5, Granada 74 @ 4 and Guadalajara @ 5. Silly prices all of them at such an early stage in the season.

Also like Cartagena, Marbella and Tenerife tomorrow for more concrete reasons, but not got time to write anything in terms of reasons why at the moment. Will try to write something tomorrow if I have time, but not sure I will.

Eibar v Tenerife @ 3.4 1.25pts
Atletico Madrid B v Cartagena @ 2.8 1pt
Marbella v Roquetas @ 1.9 1.25pts

[rcgills]

One more late one (kicks off in 40 mins)

Real Madrid B v Sangonera over 2.5 goals @ 2.1 (Sporting Odds) 2.5pts

[loko_buferche]

Cheers, rcgills!

Second round from Segunda Division... Which games are 'value' to be bet? I also tried some on Tenerife away at Eibar... But another 'surprise bet' is a big value for me...

Gimnastic - Huesca

Gimnastic started with 2-3 lost away from Tenerife... It was expected (for me, I think for you too).. As we know, Tenerife are really good host team... Huesca are 'novices' at Segunda this season... They started with 2-2 against Castellon at home, which is nice performance... Gimnastic couldn't grab the promotion last season... This time they start with some bigger appetites for the high places... It's another question do they have the ability do reach the promotion... It will be really hard for them, because they'll face the resistance of traditional teams like Zaragoza, Real Sociedad and Murcia, as well as some other strong teams like Alaves, Castellon, Celta, Tenerife, Hercules... I'm convinced that Gimnastic will not win a promotion for Primera Division... That's why I'll bet against them when the odds fro the other team are big... Huesca will be the most misterious team in Segunda this season... I don't think that any spanish punter can say with precision where will they finish... This game is determined as one of the biggest surprises from the Sunday games, and it will be also a counterweight game of the Spanish second round in Segunda... 3.25 for the draw at Betfair is a nice offer...

[rcgills]

Good luck with that Loko. Did give some thought to backing Huesca myself in that one, decided against it in the end though.

Mixed day for me so far. Cartagena came from behind to win, and Madrid B v Sangonera finished 2-2, so those 2 were winners. Tenerife went from 1-0 up to 3-1 down in the last 20 minutes. Of the 8 long shots, 3 of them have already lost and one drew, of the 4 of them still in play, 2 of them are losing and 2 are drawing. Marbella are 1-0 up but still in the first half there.

[rcgills]

Nice late equaliser there for you by Huesca, Loko

Originally Posted by rcgills

Have gone with 0.5pts each on Lugo @ 4.5, Real Union Irun @ 5.5, Murcia B @ 5.5, Vecindario @ 5.5, Ontinyent @ 4, Baleares @ 4.5, Granada 74 @ 4 and Guadalajara @ 5.

Vecindario the only winner there, so -1.25pts from those bets

Originally Posted by rcgills

Eibar v Tenerife @ 3.4 1.25pts 3-2, -1.25pts
Atletico Madrid B v Cartagena @ 2.8 1pt 1-2, +1.8pts
Marbella v Roquetas @ 1.9 1.25pts 1-1, -1.25pts

Originally Posted by rcgills

Real Madrid B v Sangonera over 2.5 goals @ 2.1 (Sporting Odds) 2.5pts 2-2, +2.75pts

Profit of 0.8pts on the day , 2.8pts for the weekend.

[loko_buferche]

Yes, rcgills, the draw of Huesca was a nice bet... Congratulations for Vecindario I love longshots because no matter if you bet 4 or 5, if the odds are big, even if you guess only one (that was the case with you) you have some profit... And if you guess 2... We both needed a bit more luck with Tenerife, but... You almost grabed Marbella... Fuckin' equaliser... And Cartagena were nice offer

I have some not bad profit from Copa del Rey and from Segunda Division this week... I hope you will continue your good work here with more analyses for Primera and Segunda the next week!...