25-31st Aug: Spanish Football Betting

[kompressaur]

25th of August 2008
20:30 Melilla v Ceuta 2.30 3.00 2.80

26th of August 2008
19:15 Real Oviedo v Pontevedra 2.50 3.10 2.50
19:30 Toledo v Granada 2.50 3.10 2.50

27th of August 2008
16:00 Roquetas v Ciudad de Lorqui 1.83 3.25 3.75
16:00 Izarra v Gava 2.30 3.00 2.80
16:00 Conquense v Cadiz 2.75 3.10 2.30
16:00 Linares v Ecija 3.10 3.10 2.10
16:00 San Fernando v Poli Ejido 2.30 3.10 2.75
18:00 Sant Andreu v Mirandes 2.10 3.20 3.00
19:00 Ciudad de Santiago v Portugalete 1.66 3.25 4.60
19:30 Barakaldo v Gim. Torrelavega 1.66 3.25 4.60
19:30 Lugo v Real Union 1.83 3.10 3.90
19:30 Orihuela v Atletico Baleares 1.90 3.20 3.50
19:30 Ponferradina v Racing Ferrol 2.20 3.10 2.90
20:30 Atletico Granadilla v Don Benito 1.95 3.10 3.50
20:30 Univ. Las Palmas v Ciempozuelos 1.57 3.40 5.20

28th of August 2008
20:00 Alfaro v Aguilas 2.00 3.10 3.30

30th of August 2008
16:00 Albacete v Sevilla Atletico 2.20 3.00 3.20
16:00 Tenerife v Gimnastic Tarragona 2.10 3.00 3.40
17:30 Real Sociedad v Las Palmas 1.80 3.10 4.33
17:30 Levante v Real Zaragoza 3.10 3.00 2.25
17:30 Rayo Vallecano v Real Murcia 3.00 3.00 2.30
17:30 Celta Vigo v Girona 1.83 3.20 4.00
19:00 Espanyol v Real Valladolid 1.83 3.40 4.50
20:00 Alicante v Xerez 2.37 2.90 3.00
21:00 Valencia v RCD Mallorca 1.72 3.50 5.00

31st of August 2008
11:00 Salamanca v Alaves 1.90 3.10 4.00
17:00 Cordoba v Hercules 2.37 2.90 3.00
17:30 Huesca v Castellon 2.50 2.87 2.87
18:00 Athletic Bilbao v Almeria 1.95 3.25 4.00
18:00 Atletico Madrid v Malaga 1.50 4.00 7.00
18:00 Real Betis v Recreativo Huelva 1.90 3.25 4.33
18:00 Sporting Gijon v Getafe 2.75 3.20 2.50
18:00 Racing Santander v Sevilla 2.60 3.25 2.50
18:00 Numancia v Barcelona 6.50 3.60 1.57
18:00 Osasuna v Villarreal 3.00 3.20 2.37
18:30 Elche v Eibar 1.90 3.10 4.00
20:00 Deportivo v Real Madrid 3.50 3.25 2.10
Odds from Paddy Power

[rcgills]

Those midweek games are the Copa del Rey, by the way.

Few early thoughts - Espanyol have a terrible record on the opening day of the season. Have to go back to 2001/02 for their last win on the opening day. For the past 5 seasons they've been at home on the opening day and failed to win, and they've lost their last 3 opening fixtures, 2 of them to newly promoted teams (Valladolid last year, Nastic the year before). Home to Valladolid again, and the price for an away win looks pretty good.

Madrid are 0-5-10 on their last 15 visits to Deportivo La Coruña, last won there in 91-92. Van Der Vaart and Van Nistelrooy will presumably be suspended after being sent off in last night's Supercopa.

And I'm very tempted to oppose Atletico Madrid - very short price on a team that's been unconvincing in pre-season.

In the Segunda, on first glance the prices on Levante and Rayo Vallecano look a touch too big, as does Celta de Vigo.

Will try to look into it more later in the week.

[Bigkegman]

checking through my 'open' bets and I found a treble that i'd put on a couple of weeks back.

Valencia/Real Madrid/Barcelona treble

Cant remember putting it on

[rcgills]

Gone for a small interest bet on Toledo tonight in the Copa del Rey

This is Tercera v Segunda B (one division higher)

Toledo were champions of their group in Tercera last season (although they missed out on promotion through the play-offs), but they had an excellent home record, 14-5-0, scored 40 conceded just 6.

Granada finished 5th in Segunda B group 4 last season.

Toledo have had a couple of pre-season friendlies against Segunda B teams, drawing with Puertollano and beating Leganes. Reading up on the forums and their fans seem pretty confident in their chances of getting a result tonight. Home advantage at what was a fortress last season, worth a shot at this price I reckon.

Toledo v Granada @ 2.875 1pt

[rcgills]

Toledo came from a goal down to win 3-1.

Couple for tonight:

Roquetas v Ciudad de Lorqui @ 3.75 (Paddy Power) 1.25pts

Two teams who won their respective groups in the Tercera division last season and have been promoted to Segunda B for the first time in their histories. Ciudad de Lorqui won their group by a massive 14pt margin, finishing on 93pts with a 28-9-1 overall record and 12-6-1 away from home.

Roquetas finished their group with 85pts, but were beaten 3 times at home, including by one side that just avoided relegation.

Hard to compare between groups at this level, as they're regional divisions and so some groups can be considerably stronger than others. The away price looks far too big to me here though in a match between two teams which seem reasonably matched.

Barakaldo v Gimnastica @ 5 0.75pts

Gimnastica had an incredible record last season, winning group 3 of the Tercera division with 100pts, 32-4-2. Won all 19 home games (conceding just 5 goals), and were 13-4-2 away from home, scored 113 goals in total. And despite all that they still didn't get promoted

They've certainly got tougher opposition here than they're used to, Barakaldo finished 4th last year in Segunda B group 2, but they were a pretty inconsistent side, and not particularly high scorers - 18-9-11 overall, with just 45 scored.

Barakaldo certainly favourites, but for a side with Gimnastica's record, they're worth a shot at 4/1.

And lastly a few other games where I think the teams stand a chance - not confident enough to take them as singles (well apart from Gimnastica as mentioned above), but I've put them in a super yankee

Mirandes (3.5)/Portugalete (4.75)/Atletico Baleares (3.6)/Gimnastica (5)/Linares (3.25) 26 x 0.1pt super yankee

The first two are the away teams in games between champions of various groups of the Tercera division, and much like the Ciudad de Lorqui bet, the prices just seem too big. Atletico Baleares, to be honest, I can't remember now why, but they've survived the whittling down of my shortlist so I can only assume there must be some reason for that . Gimnastica I've already mentioned. And lastly Linares. Home to Ecija, and these were the top 2 sides in Segunda B group 4 last season, although neither of them made it through the play-offs. Linares in severe financial difficulties, players haven't been paid and their squad is pretty thin. However, many people thought they'd have already disappeared by now, but it seems the players remaining were very keen to play in this game, and who knows - win here, and they've got a winnable looking draw at home to the winner of Ciudad Santiago v Portugalete in the next round, and after that the Primera teams come in (minus those involved in Europe), so the chance to maybe get a decent crowd and ease some of those money problems.

Also on Aguilas tomorrow (1.25 pts @ 3.3), will go into more details tomorrow should anyone actually express an interest, as I'm not sure anyone's reading this

[Napoleon Solo]

Originally Posted by rcgills

I'm not sure anyone's reading this

I am at least RC, nice work as always!

I wouldn't bother explaining your Aguilas bet forjust me though as I'm not in much of a betting frame of mind at the moment! I'm still hanging around though!

[lurieroy]

me too!

[johnnybgood]

Cheers RC,

you are right there. Noone is even reading.

I guess that TDP tactic to fuck (best expression I could find) relaiable posters and look for new via google has failed.

[rcgills]

Glad to see at least some people are reading

Results weren't the best yesterday - Portugalete won @ 4.75, but the rest lost. Was along the right lines in looking for bigger priced away teams in games between teams from the Tercera, just missed the winning ones - Don Benito @ 3.5 and Real Unión @ 3.9

For tonight's game, as mentioned yesterday, have gone with Aguilas. Alfaro only actually found out last Friday that they'd been promoted from Tercera to Segunda B due to Logroñés's financial difficulties. As such they've not really been able to prepare much pre-season, as they didn't know which division they'd be playing in (they knew they were first in line to replace Logroñés).

A quote from their manager in an interview on their website sums their situation up:

-Can we assume that everything that's happened in this pre-season will take its toll on the team's start to the season?

-Of course. It would've been nice to know on the 15th July that we were a Segunda B team, but that's the way it is. More than half of the squad arrived last Friday, and that has to take its toll. But our objetive is to take one match at a time, and aim not to be down at the bottom from the beginning. If we take one point per game, we're on the right path.

http://www.cdalfaro.helloweb.eu/web/...sk=view&id=171

Aguilas finished 6th in group 4 of the Segunda B last season, with an away record of 6-6-7.

Hopefully Alfaro's lack of preparation for this match will give Aguilas the edge here. Worth noting too that these two sides meet in the opening league game of the season at the weekend. Strangely the odds (from Sporting Odds) are 2.0 - 3.1 - 3.1 for tonight's game, and 2.7 - 3.0 - 2.4 for Sunday's game

Wouldn't be so keen to back Aguilas at 2.4 at the weekend, but 3.1 (or even better the 3.3 at Paddy Power) is a tempting enough price.

Alfaro v Aguilas @ 3.3 1.25pts

[kompressaur]

I guess that TDP tactic to fuck (best expression I could find) relaiable posters and look for new via google has failed.

the world is full of moody bastards Johnny. you should know that. didnt rene leave because you fell out with him? We havent failed Johnny. you just want too much. too soon.

[rcgills]

Was looking back earlier at some of the Spanish betting threads we used to have in here, regularly getting 3000+ views. If you sort the WW forum by number of views, ignoring the TV football thread, 6 of the top 10 are Spanish threads.

I know why Igor5 left, but what's happened to some of the others that used to post regularly on here? The likes of Ori, Mhaymovi, Jetpilot, Galilee, Specs, Prinze, Samm5948, kalishane? Do they still read TDP as lurkers (as looking at their profiles, many of them haven't logged on in months)? Or have they left for good?

Those were the good old days, when you could actually get some proper conversation and bounce ideas around

[johnnybgood]

If you are missing Rene Komp, I guess he post under new name chigo on PL.

He was missleading and I have pointed out his nonsence. He left once before when we were joking about Hitler, and left again after small talk with me. I really dont bother about that.

I am really mising some folks. And few souls that are not any more amoung us made the difference to have the treads with over 1500 views, or at some stages over 2000. Imo what you need are 2 or 3 quality posters for each section, and not more.

I wish you (TDP) succeed on your way, but in whole honesty with every day I doubt it more. I will be around, but aint investing any serios efforts anymore.
And dont get me wrong Komp I am one of your biggest fans, but as some stage you have lost the threads.

Good luck and best wishes

[rcgills]

My bets for this weekend (so far):

Espanyol v Valladolid @ 4.7 (taken at Betfair earlier in the week, don't think that price is still around now though) 1.75pts

Reasons as given earlier in this thread, and since then Espanyol have gone and sold two important players in Zabaleta and Riera. Apparently they've got replacements lined up, but they've not signed yet.

Lay Atletico Madrid v Malaga @ 1.51 to win 2.5pts

Yes, they were impressive in midweek against Schalke, but the season's only just started and a game like that may have taken a bit out of the players ahead of the weekend. Never, ever trust Atletico Madrid at such a short price, especially not on the opening day of the season.

Deportivo v Real Madrid @ 3.9 2.5pts

Reasons mainly as given above. Madrid's defence still rather sieve-like - conceding 5 in 2 games against Valencia in the Super Cup, and beating Sporting Lisbon 5-3 in a friendly in midweek. Depor looked solid enough in beating Hajduk Split on Thursday. And just to repeat again, Madrid have taken just 5pts from their last 15 visits here.

Levante v Zaragoza @ 3.9 1.25pts

Zaragoza clear favourites for the title this season, and Levante have lost a lot of players in pre-season, but it's still two sides that were in the Primera last season, and Levante won the corresponding fixture last year 2-1. Too big a price for the home side.

Real Sociedad v Las Palmas @ 5.5 1pt

Don't ask me why, I've just got a feeling about this one. Huge price on a team that ended last season in pretty good form (7 wins and 5 draws from their last 13). Sociedad can be vulnerable at home, and last season lost as many games at home as they did away (5).

Missed the boat on Celta - they were available at longer than evens earlier in the week, that price didn't last long though, and they're too short now.

And lastly one in the Segunda B group 2

Cartagena v Linares over 2.5 goals @ 2.4 (Sporting Odds) 1.75pts

Cartagena's home games last season tended to produce quite a few goals, conceding a goal a game on average, and scoring just short of 1.5 goals per game. Corresponding fixture finished 3-1 last season, and with Linares' problems as mentioned earlier in this thread, a similar scoreline wouldn't be a surprise here.

Also tempted by Valencia tonight, possibly even a handicap bet, but will make my mind up on that one later.

[Petrous]

Originally Posted by rcgills

Was looking back earlier at some of the Spanish betting threads we used to have in here, regularly getting 3000+ views. If you sort the WW forum by number of views, ignoring the TV football thread, 6 of the top 10 are Spanish threads.

I know why Igor5 left, but what's happened to some of the others that used to post regularly on here? The likes of Ori, Mhaymovi, Jetpilot, Galilee, Specs, Prinze, Samm5948, kalishane? Do they still read TDP as lurkers (as looking at their profiles, many of them haven't logged on in months)? Or have they left for good?

Those were the good old days, when you could actually get some proper conversation and bounce ideas around

today I found some tips from Igor5 on this pages

[Naza Man]

great work amico