10-11 May: Spain

[kompressaur]

La Liga Primera Betting Odds
11 May 2008
20:00 Villarreal (1.67) Draw (3.75) Espanyol (6.5) 102%
20:00 Athl Bilbao (2.6) Draw (3.3) Racing Santander (2.88) 103%
20:00 Barcelona (1.6) Draw (4.3) Mallorca (7.3) 99%
20:00 Osasuna (1.44) Draw (4.3) Murcia (10) 103%
20:00 Zaragoza (2.25) Draw (3.5) Real Madrid (3.35) 103%
20:00 Almeria (2.55) Draw (3.3) Recreativo Huelva (3) 103%
20:00 Atletico de Madrid (1.7) Draw (3.6) D La Coruna (5.4) 105%
20:00 Betis (3.5) Draw (3.4) Sevilla (2.38) 100%
20:00 Levante (5) Draw (3.5) Valencia (1.91) 101%
20:00 Valladolid (2.3) Draw (3.2) Getafe (3.4) 104%

La Liga Segunda
10 May 2008
17:00 Granada (2.25) Draw (3.1) Ferrol (3.4) 106%
17:30 Castellon (2.2) Draw (3.2) Elche (3.75) 103%
17:30 Eibar (2.25) Draw (3.1) Las Palmas (3.6) 104%
17:30 Tenerife (3) Draw (3) Gijon (2.63) 105%
17:30 Malaga (1.7) Draw (3.4) Gimnastic (5.5) 106%
17:30 Sevilla B (2.5) Draw (2.9) Celta Vigo (3.1) 107%
11 May 2008
11:00 Salamanca (3.1) Draw (3) Numancia (2.5) 106%
16:00 Alaves (2.25) Draw (3) Albacete (3.5) 106%
17:00 Hercules (2) Draw (3.25) Poli Ejido (4.5) 103%
17:00 Cadiz (3.25) Draw (3) Real Sociedad (2.5) 104%
17:00 Cordoba (2.5) Draw (3) Xerez (3.15) 105%

La Liga Segunda B
10 May 2008
15:00 Osasuna B (3.1) Draw (3.2) Huesca (2.3) 107%
15:00 Alcala (2.3) Draw (3.1) Cartagena (2.9) 110%
15:00 Real Union Irun (2) Draw (3.2) Ponferradina (3.75) 108%
15:00 Alcoyano (2) Draw (3) Badalona (3.75) 110%
15:00 Talavera (3.2) Draw (3) Puertollano (2.2) 110%
15:00 Athletic Bilbao B (2) Draw (3.2) CD Logrones (3.4) 111%
15:00 Zamora (1.5) Draw (3.6) Guijuelo (6.5) 110%
15:00 Barakaldo (1.5) Draw (4) Real Valladolid B (6.5) 107%
15:00 Celta de Vigo B v P Playas de Jandia - No Prices Yet
15:00 Cultural Leonesa (2.1) Draw (3.1) Lemona (3.4) 109%
15:00 Gava (2.5) Draw (3) Girona (2.8) 109%
15:00 Granada (2) Draw (3.1) Ceuta (3.75) 109%
15:00 Jaen (2.4) Draw (3.2) Ecija Balompie (2.63) 111%
15:00 Lorca (2) Draw (3.1) Real Betis B (3.5) 111%
15:00 Marbella (2.2) Draw (3) Baza (3.25) 110%
15:00 Merida (2.1) Draw (3.1) Aguilas (3.4) 109%
15:00 Orihuela (1.7) Draw (3.4) Terrassa (4.8) 109%
15:00 Real Sociedad B (2.2) Draw (3) Sestao River (3.5) 107%
15:00 Alcorcon (1.75) Draw (3.2) Vecindario (4.3) 111%
15:00 Sabadell (2.3) Draw (3) Villajoyosa (3.2) 108%
15:00 Algeciras (6.5) Draw (3.6) Melilla (1.5) 110%
15:00 Villarreal B (2.25) Draw (3.25) Castelldefels (3.5) 104%
15:00 Atletico Madrid B (2.5) Draw (3) D Coruna B (3.2) 105%
15:00 Benidorm (1.91) Draw (3.1) Eivissa (4) 110%
15:00 Conquense (2.3) Draw (3.2) Guadalajara (2.88) 109%
15:00 Espanyol B (3.3) Draw (3.1) Ontinyent (2.1) 110%
15:00 Atletico Gamenet (2.6) Draw (2.63) Denia (3.25) 107%
15:00 CE Lhospitalet (4.5) Draw (3.2) Alicante (1.8) 109%
15:00 Levante (3.75) Draw (3) Lleida (2) 110%
15:00 Lucena (2.4) Draw (3.2) Linares (2.7) 110%
15:00 Mazarron (2.2) Draw (3.1) Portuense (3.2) 109%

[Cinny]

Villareal look a good bet to keep up their recent great run while espanyol are in a bad way and the manager seems under severe pressure.

Seville and Atletico chasing the last champions league spot should be all out for the win although seville in a tough derby match.

Valencia look decent but once again a derby match. Zaragoza to get the win they badly need? osasuna as well?

[rcgills]

Of those, I'd say Zaragoza and Osasuna are probably your best bets. Was hoping for a bit better price on Zaragoza to be honest, but with Madrid having sealed the title and put Barcelona in their place, there's nothing more for them to play for, and Zaragoza at home are pretty strong. Osasuna should win, but I personally won't get involved at that short a price.

I'd steer clear of Villarreal, they're guaranteed to finish 2nd no matter what happens now, so this is basically just a meaningless end of season game now, and anything could happen.

Sevilla and Atletico both need the win, but they've both got tough matches, I'd say. Betis have nothing to play for but the Betis v Sevilla rivalry is arguably the most intense in Spain, and they'd no doubt love to stop Sevilla making the Champions League. Atletico are up against one of the form sides of the division, Deportivo have won 6 of their last 7. Deportivo still in with a chance of the UEFA cup too, 4pts off Santander with 2 to play, so their season isn't over. 5/1 available for the away win on Betfair, and I think that's absolutely huge, way too good to resist.

As for Valencia, no way I'd touch them at odds on away from home. Worth bearing in mind a point will be enough for them to stay up too - they're 5 clear of Osasuna and Huelva, and have a superior H2H against both of them (took 4pts from both Osasuna and Huelva this season), so in the event that they finish level on points, Valencia will finish above both of them.

Of the other games, Mallorca's price looks tempting as they chase the UEFA Cup places, and while I don't normally like backing draws, I'd say Valladolid v Getafe looks likely for a draw - it'd suit Getafe perfectly, near enough guaranteeing their safety, and while it wouldn't be ideal for Valladolid, I'm not sure they're capable of winning.

[rcgills]

I'm torn over whether or not to back Zaragoza tonight. The price is terrible (down to evens now), presumably based on the team news - Madrid resting Casillas and Raul, Gago and Robben are injured, while Pepe and Heinze are suspended. Schuster has also said this week that while he's never known a player that wants to lose a match, there's no way they can match the motivation of Zaragoza for this match, which sounds to me suspiciously like he's getting the excuses in early.

Talk of a potential bonus on offer to the Madrid players from Zaragoza's rivals (allegedly happens every year at this stage of the season), but with no disrespect to Osasuna or Huelva, they're not exactly loaded, and I find it hard to believe they could offer Madrid's millionaires enough money to even tempt them to get out of bed, never mind actually bother trying to win a game, so I think that's a bit of a no-goer.

Zaragoza's home record is pretty impressive, and Sevilla, Villarreal and Atletico Madrid have all been beaten here this season. They're certainly capable of winning this one, and Madrid seem to be laying it on a plate for them to do so. Still a shit price though

[rcgills]

Have gone for the lay of Atletico Madrid against Deportivo. Both sides need the points, a win for Atletico would guarantee them a Champions League place next season, while a win for Deportivo will keep them in the chase for the UEFA as long as Racing don't win in Bilbao. However, while Deportivo definitely need the win, a draw would be enough for Atletico if Sevilla don't win away to Betis, and even if they lose, if Sevilla lose too they'd qualify.

Was tempted by the straight away win in this one, Depor are the form side at the moment, but with Atletico also desperate for the points, so I'll play it safer and lay Atletico.

Lay Atletico v Depor @ 1.65 to win 4pts

Also going with Mallorca away to Barcelona. All kinds of problems for Barcelona at the moment, their season is now over, and for quite a few players (plus Rijkaard too) you suspect their Barcelona careers are over. Mallorca come here on the back of 4 straight wins, and have managed 7 wins and 26 goals in their last 10 games. Dani Guiza is on fire and is looking to seal the Pichichi award (for top scorer). Mallorca expected to be at full strength. Barcelona missing Sylvinho, Iniesta, Milito, Ronaldinho, probably Gudjohnsen too (all injured) plus Rafa Marquez and Xavi (suspended).

Mallorca @ 6 3pts
Lay Barcelona @ 1.7 to win 3pts
(so basically works out to DNB @ around 4.35)

[rcgills]

Going to go against Sevilla as well. Betis have nothing to play for in terms of league position, but as I said in an earlier post, they hate Sevilla, and they'd love to deny them a place in the Champions League, so there shouldn't be any doubting their motivation. They've already beaten Real Madrid and Barcelona at home this season, and although their recent home form has been dodgy, their last game at least can be discounted as it was played at a neutral ground. Sevilla have won just once in their last 10 visits to Betis.

Definitely want the draw on my side for this one, don't think Betis would be too disappointed with that as it would mean Atletico only need 1pt either today or next week to deny Sevilla the Champions League.

Lay Sevilla @ 2.13 to win 4pts

[rcgills]

Plenty still to play for in the Segunda, where with 6 games to go there are still only 7pts separating 8th from 18th.

8.	Hercules Alicante CF	36	11	15	10	51:43	48
9.	Teneriffe Santa Cruz CD	37	11	15	11	45:50	48
10.	Celta de Vigo	37	12	11	14	45:44	47
11.	Las Palmas UD	37	12	11	14	42:49	47
12.	Eibar SD	37	13	8	16	40:47	47
13.	Salamanca UD	36	10	16	10	44:39	46
14.	Cadiz	36	12	9	15	35:37	45
15.	Racing Ferrol	37	11	12	14	43:47	45
16.	Gimnastic Tarragona	37	9	16	12	41:45	43
17.	Granada 74 CF	37	10	13	14	39:48	43
18.	Albacete Balompie	36	10	11	15	31:38	41
19.	Deportivo Alaves	36	10	11	15	34:42	41
20.	Xerez CD	36	9	14	13	42:53	41
21.	Cordoba CF	36	7	16	13	41:50	37
22.	Polideportivo Ejido	36	9	9	18	30:48	36

Only one game takes my interest though, and that's Cordoba v Xerez. Both sides in the relegation zone (bottom 4 go down), although Xerez are level on points with 18th. However, the two sides are on very different runs of form. Cordoba have drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 9, they've lost their last 3 at home, all 1-0 and all to teams in the relegation battle (Alaves, Las Palmas, Eibar), and they've got the worst home record in the division, 3-10-5.

Xerez meanwhile are unbeaten in 9, winning all 5 of their home games and drawing all 4 away games in that run. Their away record's not the best, mind you, 2-7-9, but they've won on each of their last 3 visits to Cordoba.

Team news not the best for Cordoba either, with 4 players missing, 3 of them first-team regulars, and the other having played 15 games this season for them. Xerez also missing 2 first team players.

Cordoba the bookies favourites for this one, and I really can't agree with that.

Xerez DNB @ 2.1 8pts

Also going to take Cordoba not to score. They've failed to score in their last 3 homes as mentioned above, and while Xerez's defence is pretty leaky away from home (29 conceded in 18 games), so are the defences of Eibar (26 in 18), Las Palmas (29 in 18) and Alaves (28 in 18), and they all kept a clean sheet here.

Cordoba not to score @ 3.25 (Sporting Odds) 2pts

[Cinny]

The one thing about laying Atletico at home to Deportivo was the terrible performance Deportivo put in in their last away game at Zaragoza where Zaragoza missed plenty of chances. Good luck with your bets though!

[Snowman]

Not my piece of cake, but I had a chance to watch Zaragoza - Depor, and from what I have seen no way I would support Zaragoza. I realized that it was not by chance they were fighting for life all this season. Their attack is plain terrible, not only by the way they mess up anytime they enter the box, but they play an old fashioned football. Too many contacts with the ball, slow, passes are complicated, every player had to touch the ball three times in order to give it further. They are plain terrible. While at the same time Depor was totally uninterested to go forward, pretty happy to keep the ball around the centre spot. Zaragoza scored a goal in the 90+4 minute after Depor keeper dropped the ball he tried to catch. So there is absolutely nothing to make me believe they will be able to win tonight.
Concerning Depor, I had that bad luck, obviously, to watch them when they lost the only game in last 7, but I have no doubt that a motivated Atletico should beat them easily

[rcgills]

Cinny, you're right, Deportivo weren't the best in that game, but I personally think you could put it as much down to a good performance by Zaragoza as to poor play by Deportivo. If we're going to look at poor recent performances, then you could just as easily look at Atletico in their 1-3 defeat at home to Betis in their last-but-one home game.

Snowman, think you're being pretty harsh on Zaragoza, especially on the basis of just one game. They had an off day in front of goal, and although you're right that the goal was down to an error by the Depor keeper, they created plenty of chances, something they've been doing all season. They've scored 34 goals in 18 games at home, and they've only failed to score in 1 home game. Their front 2, Milito and Oliveira, have got 29 goals between them (only Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid, Sevilla and Mallorca have strike partnerships with more goals than them).

Despite that, I still can't convince myself to back Zaragoza at that price .

[Cinny]

Super game tonight on sky, great stuff quality end to end action. My heart went out to Zaragoza in the end after missing countless chances throughout! They dont look in too good of shape now.

You seem to not like atletico at all rc but they've delivered again and champions league beckons. Absolutely terrific stuff rc with your mallorca call, super, a nice priced winner!!

I was wondering have Atletico secured a champions league place as they have a superior head to head against sevilla, should they become tied on points?

[rcgills]

I was convinced in that first half that Sergio Ramos was trying to help Zaragoza out . There was some half-hearted attempted backheel flick in his area that ended up squirming off his stomach and through to the keeper, then he tried to take a man on by his own corner flag and lost it. Anyway, as you say, it's not looking good for Zaragoza now, in the relegation zone with 1 game to play, and their last away game is at Mallorca, who are chasing the UEFA Cup places. The only good news for them is that Recreativo and Valladolid play each other, meaning that if Zaragoza win, they're guaranteed to be safe, as they'd definitely overtake whichever of those two loses that game, or if it was a draw they'd overtake Huelva. Obviously it won't be easy to get the win, but at least it's still in their own hands - win and they're safe, regardless of what happens elsewhere. Also good news for them is that the other team still in contention to go down, Osasuna, play Mallorca's direct rivals for the UEFA Cup, Racing Santander.

You were right (again ) about Atletico. I don't set out to oppose them every week just for the sake of it, but I've always found them to be a team you can't really trust, and I do oppose them when I think they're too short a price, as was the case this week. Maybe they're made of sterner stuff now. And yes, they're guaranteed the Champions League after last night's win.

Great win for Mallorca last night, shame it only really served to cancel out my losses from all the other games

[rcgills]

Cinny, this article pretty much sums up why I've found it hard to trust Atletico

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