Brazil Serie A Pre-cursor for 2008/09

Merlin · #1 (**permalink**) 07-05-2008, 15:31

The 2008 Brazil Football Season Kicks-off This Saturday 10th May...

Série A (Brasileirão) is where the big boys play, there are currently 20 teams in the league, who play the usual one home and away against each other - the objective besides winning it, of course, is to avoid the drop into the wilderness that is Serie B - but 4 teams will ultimately, at the end of the 40 games have to face that humiliation.

Most bookmakers offer odds on Serie A games, and with careful selection it can be a profitable league for your football betting.

In this pre-cursor I will try and point you in the right direction, beware though, because it's mostly based on observation in addition to some thoughts - always do your own reserach before placing a bet!

One of the things to realize about Brazil is the huge geographical area it covers, and an away game can take a few flying hours - this however, doesn't usually affect the teams, but what it does do is ensure that home crowds are partisan - this is lessened in games involving teams from the same state, because there will be some away fan presence.

The teams that tend do dominate the top-half of Serie A are the Sao Paulo and Rio De Janeiro sides, and that is where to concentrate your mind if you are looking for an outright winner.

At the time of writing however, the bookies are yet to publish odds on the outright winner - But my idea of the winner will come from the following 4 teams:

SAO PAULO (last years winner)
SANTOS
BOTAFOGO
FLAMENGO

Sao Paulo are favourites to take it again, but I like Botafogo for a top 3 spot with Santos being next best.

Here is the way they finished last season:

(Team- Matches- Win -Draw- Loss- GS- GA- Points)

Sao Paulo 38 23 8 7 55 19 77
Santos 38 19 5 14 57 47 62
Flamengo 38 17 10 11 55 49 61
Fluminense 38 16 13 9 57 39 61
Cruzeiro 38 18 6 14 73 58 60
Gremio Porto Alegre 38 17 7 14 44 43 58
Palmeiras 38 16 10 12 48 47 58
Botafogo 38 14 13 11 62 58 55
Atletico Mineiro 38 15 10 13 63 51 55
Vasco da Gama 38 15 9 14 58 47 54
Internacional 38 15 9 14 49 44 54
Atletico Paranaense 38 14 12 12 51 50 54
Figueirense 38 14 11 13 57 56 53
Sport Club Recife 38 14 9 15 54 55 51
Nautico Capibaribe 38 14 7 17 66 63 49
Goias 38 13 6 19 49 62 45
Corinthians 38 10 14 14 40 50 44
Parana Clube 38 11 8 19 42 64 41
Juventude 38 11 8 19 43 65 41
America Natal 38 4 5 29 24 80 17

As a guide to help you decide which teams to follow in home and away games, here is a list of the teams which perform best and worst at home and away - this list is based on last seasons performance(s) and may not reflect this seasons games...

But anyway, here you go:

BEST PERFORMING HOME TEAMS:

(Team- Matches- Win- Draw- Loss- GS- GA- Points)

Sao Paulo 19 13 3 3 35 8 42
Flamengo 19 12 4 3 37 20 40
Gremio Porto Alegre 19 12 4 3 32 17 40
Atletico Paranaense 19 11 6 2 29 15 39
Internacional 19 12 2 5 27 16 38
Sport Club Recife 19 11 5 3 40 23 38
Santos 19 11 4 4 36 19 37
Vasco da Gama 19 11 3 5 40 18 36
Cruzeiro 19 11 2 6 43 29 35
Figueirense 19 10 5 4 35 22 35
Botafogo 19 10 4 5 38 25 34

Here are the best teams to follow away (based on last
seasons performance).

(Team- Matches- Win- Draw- Loss- GS- GA- Points )

Sao Paulo 19 10 5 4 20 11 35
Fluminense 19 8 5 6 27 24 29
Cruzeiro 19 7 4 8 30 29 25
Santos 19 8 1 10 21 28 25
Palmeiras 19 6 7 6 21 26 25
Atletico Mineiro 19 6 5 8 23 28 23
Botafogo 19 4 9 6 24 33 21
Flamengo 19 5 6 8 18 29 21
Corinthians 19 4 7 8 23 30 19
Nautico Capibaribe 19 5 3 11 31 40 18
Figueirense 19 4 6 9 22 34 18
Vasco da Gama 19 4 6 9 18 29 18
Gremio Porto Alegre 19 5 3 11 12 26 18
Internacional 19 3 7 9 22 28 16
Atletico Paranaense 19 3 6 10 22 35 15
Sport Club Recife 19 3 4 12 14 32 13

And finally, here the games for this coming weekend, prediction is in bold type - there are no odds available yet - so these are NOT recommended bets, merely predictions for week 1 of SERIE A Brasil.

SATURDAY
10/05/2008
São Paulo x Grêmio
Náutico x Goiás
Vitória x Cruzeiro

SUNDAY
11/05/2008
Internacional x Vasco
Ipatinga x Atlético-PR
Botafogo x Sport
Coritiba x Palmeiras
Portuguesa x Figueirense
Atlético-MG x Fluminense
Flamengo x Santos

Good Luck, we got a great season to look forwatd too

PS: This is only a pre-cursor, I will expand on this over the coming weeks.

Merlin · #2 (**permalink**) 08-05-2008, 03:56

Logistics and Other Stuff regarding Brazil Serie A

Below, you will find the teams in the Brazilian Serie A this year, the 4 teams in red were promoted from Serie B.

Atlético Mineiro MG
Atlético Paranaense PR
Botafogo RJ
Coritiba PR (promoted from Serie B)
Cruzeiro MG
Figueirense SC
Flamengo RJ
Fluminense RJ
Goiás GO
Grêmio RS
Internacional RS
Ipatinga MG (promoted from Serie B)
Náutico PE
Palmeiras SP
Portuguesa SP (promoted from Serie B)
Santos SP
São Paulo SP
Sport PE
Vasco RJ
Vitória BA (promoted from Serie B)

You will notice a series of 2 letters after the football team name, this indicates the State the team is from, there is a key below:

State Key:
RJ = Rio de Janeiro
MG = Minas Gerais
PR = Parana
SC = Santa Catarina
GO = Goais
SP = Sao Paulo
RS = Rio Grande do Sul
PE = Pernambuco
BA = Bahia

You will notice from the above , that there are only 9 states represented in Serie A - actually a third of the countries states - of course , all 27 states are madly and passionately in love with football, but they are just not currently good enough for Serie A.

Naturally, with promotion and demotion at seasons end, this can change , year-on-year.

Here follows a map of Brazil, with all states marked clearly, along with their capitals.

If you intend following and making bets on Serie A this season, it will pay you to familiarize yourself with the geography - in addition to noting the Rio and Sao Paulo teams.

Both principalities account for 8 of the 20 teams:

Rio teams are; Flamengo, Fluminense, Botafogo and Vasco.

Sao Paulo teams are; Sao Paulo, Santos, Palmeiras and Portuguesa.

Recife, Pernambuco, in the north-east has 2 teams, Nautico and Sport. Also from the north-east , Bahia has 1 team; Vitoria.

Minas Gerais which borders Sao Paulo and Rio has 3 teams; Atlético Mineiro, Ipatinga and Cruzeiro. Whilst the southern state bordering Argentina, Rio Grande do Sul, also has 2 teams in the shape of; Gremio and Internacional. Whilst Parana, also has 2 teams , Atlético Paranaense and Coritiba. Santa Catarina and Goias each have one representative, Figueirense and Goiás, respectively.

If you have already studied the map and team location you would have noticed that most of the teams in Serie A are from the southern part of Brazil, the teams furthest north this season are Nautico and Sport in Recife, Pernambuco.

There are states in Brazil which are bigger than some European countries, and you should always check-out and know the teams you are betting on - and as in all regions of the world, football rivalry is no different in Brazil.

It's worth noting that there are two layers and primary aspects of rivalry in Brazilian football.

The first is the obvious rivalry between teams from the same state and city, but just as intense , is inter-state rivalry. The latter is important, and there have in the past, been accusations

(particularly at seasons end)

that relegation battles have been won and lost through same state teams putting out second-string players or such like - although , of course this is only rhetoric

and unproven.

Hope you have found this useful so far, there will be more info and bits and bobs about Brazil Serie A, soon...

rcgills · #3 (**permalink**) 08-05-2008, 05:44

Excellent write-ups Merlin

Merlin · #4 (**permalink**) 08-05-2008, 10:40

SATURDAY
10/05/2008
São Paulo x Grêmio
Náutico x Goiás
Vitória x Cruzeiro

SUNDAY
11/05/2008
Internacional x Vasco
Ipatinga x Atlético-PR
Botafogo x Sport
Coritiba x Palmeiras
Portuguesa x Figueirense
Atlético-MG x Fluminense
Flamengo x Santos

2 bets for the weekend, although i cant see any prices up yet...

SATURDAY
Náutico v Goiás
Home - take 2.10 or better

SUNDAY
Botafogo V Sport
Home - take 1.60 or better

Merlin · #5 (**permalink**) 08-05-2008, 19:36

Here is the betting for this weekend...

Brasileiro Serie A betting odds

Sat May 10, 2008					Best Book
22:10	Vitoria (13/8)	Draw (9/4)	Cruzeiro (11/8)	View Odds	111%
22:10	Sao Paulo (4/6)	Draw (9/4)	Gremio (4)	View Odds	111%
22:10	Nautico (1)	Draw (9/4)	Goias (9/4)	View Odds	112%

Sun May 11, 2008					Best Book
20:00	Coritiba (6/4)	Draw (9/4)	Palmeiras (6/4)	View Odds	111%
20:00	Ipatinga (7/4)	Draw (9/4)	Atletico PR (5/4)	View Odds	112%
20:00	Botafogo RJ (8/15)	Draw (5/2)	Sport (5)	View Odds	111%
20:00	Internacional (4/6)	Draw (9/4)	Vasco Da Gama (4)	View Odds	111%
22:10	Atletico-MG (5/4)	Draw (9/4)	Fluminense (7/4)	View Odds	112%
22:10	Flamengo (5/6)	Draw (9/4)	Santos (3)	View Odds	110%
22:10	Portuguesa (1)	Draw (9/4)	Figueirense (9/4)	View Odds	112%

**kompressaur** · #6 (**permalink**) 08-05-2008, 20:03

Cheers Merlin. I was gonna ask 'when it starts' after reading all that but you twarted me with some odds for first games of the season. I woulnd't waste my time on these cnuts. They've got as much interest in Brazilian football as i have ot errrr..shit ive put myself in it now...long sommer nights Botafogo away from home. Eurovision song Contest winnings, small boys, in the park, jumpers for goalposts..drone drone

I will look in with interest Merlin. well more than i will other parts of the forum as i feel my life is splintered across a cheesewire of forums. Sorry don't mind me and good luck for the season Merlin i'm sure that Bash the Bookmaker Betting Site will be ready for the new season.

**FC Basher** · #7 (**permalink**) 08-05-2008, 22:03

Cruzeiro start away at newly promoted Victoria

Cruzeiro are a rock solid club in this league numerous top 10 finishes as well as being champs in 2003 and did finish 5th last season being the leagues highest scorers.

Guilherme aged 19 is a goal scoring midfielder who plays behind the front two and has 18 goals from his 51 apperences for the club.

Victoria I think have been away from the top flight since being relegated in 94,I have very little info on them but I would be surprised if their squad is at the level of Cruzeiro.

Cruzerio were also the 3rd best performing away side in the league last season.
Bet365 go 5/6 Cruzeiro Draw no bet

Merlin · #8 (**permalink**) 08-05-2008, 22:18

That draw no bet price for Cruzeiro look pretty decent...

Vitoria went down to the 3rd Division at one point...

**FC Basher** · #9 (**permalink**) 08-05-2008, 22:25

Cheers Merlin,the win singles priced up at 8/5

Merlin · #10 (**permalink**) 08-05-2008, 23:41

Originally Posted by FC Basher

Cheers Merlin,the win singles priced up at 8/5

I think they may win too..I wont bet them though....I would rather stick with home wins the first few weeks...

I am trying to find outright prices, cant find any yet...

Merlin · #11 (**permalink**) 09-05-2008, 15:15

Here follows a very brief preview of the Brazilian league, Serie A for the 2008 season.

Atlético Mineiro

Mineiro, in English means , miner. This is due to the extensive mining activities in the State of Minas Gerais.

Their nicknme is Galo, on account of a rooster being their mascot.

They won the first ever Brazilian Championship, but have been relegated a couple of times since. They did however win promotion from Serie B in 2006 and finished a respectable 9th in Serie A last year.

I think they will probably finish mid-table again in 2008, worth a bet at big odds in away games.

Atlético Paranaense

Paranaense are from South Brazil, and are former Serie A champions.

They finished 12th last season, and I think they will struggle again this year, they may however, avoid the drop into Serie B - a strong home side - not betting material away from home.

Botafogo

Botafogo are a Rio de Janeiro based team, and are former Serie A champions.

Botafogo have a big following not only in Rio , but all over Brazil.

They finished 8th last year, but are capabale of better than that, and I think they may do well this year. A lively outside bet for the Championship in my opinion - a good all-round side, who win their share of games both home and away.

Coritiba

Coritiba is a Southern Brazil team, based in the City of the same name in Parana.

The team was formed by members of the German community there - no surprise really, as over the years, thousands of German and Italian immigramts settled in Parana - which is manifest in communities and culture of the area.

They won Serie B last year and were duly promoted, and I believe they have a very good chance of staying up.

Cruzeiro

Cruzeiro are based in Belo Horizonte in Minas Gerais and are a strong side, regularly finishing in the top half of Serie A. In fact they finished 5th last year and are good candidates for top 6 finish again. As you would expect from a solid side, they win a good deal of both home and away games.

Figueirense

Figueirense are based in the city of Florianopolis in Santa Catarina. They have never won a Serie A title, and I don't think they will in my lifetime - or possibly , anytime!

They finished 13th last season, and are candidates for the bottom half again, may miss the drop, but I wouldn't bet on it!

Flamengo

Flamengo are one of the big Rio de Janeiro clubs. It is one of the most popular clubs in Brazil with about 40 million fans inside the country. They have never been relegated and have won the title 5 times.

They finished 3rd last year, and will again be pushing for a top 3 spot - a reasonable bet to win outright, and a good side to bet at home.

Fluminense

Another Rio team, previous winners of Serie A to boot. They finished 4th last year, and if they could improve their home form, they would go close to winning the title.

A good team to bet in away games.

Goiás

Goiás are based in the state of the same name, in the city of Goiânia in West-central Brazil. Never won a title and unlikely too, unless it's a Serie B title.

They escaped the drop last year by a single point - they will need that kind of luck again to stay-up - a team to bet against.

Grêmio

Grêmio are based in the city of Porto Alegre in south-Brazil.

They are former Serie A champions and finished 6th last year.

They are a strong solid and big club, and will be pushing for a top 6 spot again, a good team to back at home.

Internacional

Internacional are based in Porto Alegre, south-Brazil. Their best performance on the international stage was when beating Barcelona in the 2006 FIFA Club World Cup.

They have also won the Brazilian Championship 3 times.

Last year they finished 11th, and can probably do better, they are not champion material this year, but are worth betting in both home and away games.

Ipatinga

Ipatinga is a relatively new club, being formed as late as 1998.

They are here through promotion from Serie B, thanks to a 2nd place finish in 2007.

Ipatinga are sure candidates for the drop - it would be a surprise if they survived their first Serie A campaign.

Náutico

Nautico are based in Recife and have never won a championship - they only just survived in Serie A last year, and will struggle again this year - a bottom half finish is the order of the day, possibly escaping relegation - they are however, worth betting in selected away games at big prices.

Palmeiras

Palmeiras are a Sao Paulo based club, they have won the championship 4 times and finished a respectable 7th last season.

The are not championship material, but can again claim a top 10 spot - they are worth betting in away games.

Portuguesa

Portuguesa are Sao Paulo based and have a large ex-pat Portuguese contingent of support, indeed it was ex´-pats from the mother country who founded the club.

They were promoted from Serie B and will surely struggle at this level - I envisage them going straight back down.

Santos

Santos are based in Sao Paulo, and due to it's location near the docks, the team nickname is, Peixe, literally meaning, Fish.

Santos had a golden age when Pele played for them and they have won the championship twice.

They finished second to Sao Paulo last season and are contenders again this year - however, my suspicion is they will just fall short, but ought to be in the top 4 or 5.

They are a stable , well rounded side, and win well at home in addition to their fair share of away games.

Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo are current championships, and are favourites to take the league again.

They are a strong side at home and away, and a profit can be made betting them - of course, the bookies usually keep their prices tight, so look around for best prices if betting them.

Sport

Sport a based in Recife, and are currently , probably the best Recife side.

They usually have 2 battles in Serie A, the first to get as high as possible, annd the second being to finish above Nautico.

They finished 1 place above Nautico last year and will be aiming for a top 10 spot this year.

Worth betting at home.

Vasco

Vasco are based in Rio de Janeiro, and are traditionally supported by the Portuguese ex-pats there.

They finished 10th last season and agin look sure to be in the top 10 finishers.

No betting advice for them really, except that they are worth considering for draw bets.

Vitoria

Newly promoted Vitoria are from Bahia in north-east Brazil, they finished 4th in Serie B last season and were promoted on the back of that.

They are going to be (along with Ipatinga) the Serie A whipping boys this year, and I fully expect them to go straight back down.

Merlin · #12 (**permalink**) 11-05-2008, 13:41

BOTAFOGO v Sport
HOME @ 1.65 = 7 Points

SIDE BET: 1/2 point reverse half time/full time @ 29.00 and 41.00

Botafogo are contenders this year for the title, well, in my opinion they are, and Sport although a good team at home, don't fair to well away and are worth opposing...

**FC Basher** · #13 (**permalink**) 11-05-2008, 17:08

Hi Merlin we nailed Cruzeiro easy

I like Botafogo like you but ive gone for over 2.5 goals @ 2.00 single

and put Ipantinga over 2.5 goals @ 2.25 in as the double.

See you at the payout

Merlin · #14 (**permalink**) 11-05-2008, 23:34

Botafogo won 2-0 , but Sport could and should have scored themselves - possibly twice...

Bet landed, but on today's performance Sport look bankers for their next game which will be at home...

Merlin · #15 (**permalink**) 11-05-2008, 23:38

You were a bit unlucky not to get the overs , Basher...

The game was interupted 15 minutes from time due to floodlight failure, Possibly the continuity would have been in Sports favour, as they were piling the pressure ....