Turkish Football (13-14 May)

[farnerud]

13.05.2006 Saturday

Sivasspor v Ankaragucu 2.00 3.30 3.35
V.Manisa v Konyaspor 1.90 3.35 3.60

14.05.2006 Sunday

Trabzonspor v Besiktas 1.85 3.80 3.40
Denizlispor v Fenerbahçe 7.00 5.00 1.35
Galatasaray v Kayserispor 1.20 6.00 12.00
Gaziantepspor v Malatyaspor 3.00 2.70 2.50
Gençlerbirliği v Rizespor 1.25 5.00 10.00
Kayseri Erciyes v Ankara BB Spor 4.10 3.00 1.90
Samsunspor v Diyarbakirspor 1.70 3.30 4.75

[farnerud]

1 Fenerbahce 80
2 Galatasaray 80
3 Trabzon 52
4 Beşiktaş 51
5 Kayseri 51
6 Gençler 51
7 Konya 45
8 Erciyes 40
9 Sivas 40
10 Ankaragücü 39
11 V.Manisa 39
12 Ç.Rizespor 38
13 Gaziantepspor 37
14 Ankaraspor 36
15 Denizli 36
16 Malatya 36
17 Samsun 33
18 Diyarbakır 29

blue : championship
green : UEFA
red : relegation

Final round at Super League. Top two will go to Champions League while 3rd will join UEFA Cup. But Besiktas guaranteed to take one seat as cup winner so if they finish the league at 3rd position than 4th team will go UEFA cup. Three teams are in race for last UEFA Cup seat.

Bottom three will relegate. Diyarbakirspor and Samsunspor mathmetically relegated. One of the four teams (Malatya, Denizli, Ankara and Gaziantep) will also relegate.

[farnerud]

If two teams finish the league at same points, league sorting rules will be :

1) Results between teams (h2h) will be the first decider. If points are equal than goals scored at these two matches will be important. (away goals not important)
2) If still tied, than total goal difference and total goals scored will be counted.

If three or more teams tied athe end of the season, all results between these teams will be considered as a league and sorting will be made due to this table.

Championship Race

Fenerbahce have better h2h stats to Galatasaray so with 3 points Fenerbahce will win the title. Galatasaray must win and wait for Fenerbahce to drop points. Both two teams will play very interesting games. Fenerbahce’s opponent Denizlispor is trying to avoid relegation and will probably relegate if loses and Galatasaray’s opponent Kayserispor are hopeful for UEFA Cup spot and anything less than a win will end their hopes.

UEFA Cup Race

There are three candidates for last UEFA Cup seat. Trabzonspor holds the biggest advantage and will be third if they beat rivals Besiktas which have secured UEFA Cup place. This match will be played at neutral venue. As I said above Kayserispor will play a very hard game against Galatasay while Genclerbirligi will face the easier opponent Rizespor who escaped relegation last week.

H2h stats between these teams are like this,

Trabzon – Genclerbirligi = Genclerbirligi
Trabzon – Kayseri = Kayseri
Genclerbirligi – Kayseri = Kayseri

Also there are two possibilites that 3 teams may finish the league at same points.

If Trabzon loses, Kayseri and G.Birligi both wins than three teams will have 54 points. Kayserispor will be 4th and go to UEFA Cup.

1 Beşiktaş 10 points
2 Kayseri 4 points
3 Gençlerbirliği 3 points

If Trabzon loses, Kayseri and G.Birligi both get 1 point, than these three teams will have 52 points.

1 G.Birligi 7 points
2 Kayseri 6 points
3 Trabzon 4 points

Relegation Race

Most interesting calculations will be made to find 3rd relegated team. There are many possibilities, let’s have a look to some of them.

Now Denizli, Malatya and Ankara are at same points. If all of them wins than Gaziantep will relegate.

If all 3 teams will draw Malatyaspor will relegate due to having worst record.

1 Denizli 10 points
2 Ankara 4 points
3 Malatya 1 point

Minimum possibility but if all three teams loses and if Samsunspor beat Diyarbakir, than 4 teams will have 33 points and Ankara will relegate under these conditions.

1 Denizli 13 points
2 Malatya 9 points
2 Ankara 8 points
3 Samsun 4 points

H2h stats are like this

Denizli - Ankara = Denizli
Denizli - Malatya = Denizli
Ankara - Malatya = Ankara
Gaziantep – Ankara = Ankara
Gaziantep – Denizli = Gaziantep

[farnerud]

SUMMARY

I know there are very complex calculations, but as a summary I’ll write the teams which won’t be interested with other matches’s results and try to give my predicts.

Fenerbahce will be champion if wins
Trabzonspor will go to UEFA Cup if wins
Denizlispor will survive if wins
Ankaraspor will survive if wins
Gaziantepspor will survive if they take at least 1 point
Malatyaspor will %99 relegate if loses and will survive if wins

K.Erciyesspor – Ankaraspor

Ankaraspor got an unlucky loss last week against Trabzonspor and stayed in trouble. But they have an advantage to clarify own situation. Ankaraspor will rescue if they win against K.Erciyesspor. Home team have nothing to play for, unless extraordinary things happens Ankaraspor will win. There is no certainty in football and I don’t love to make “sure bet” predictions but if this is Turkish league I don’t see anything than an away win.

Ankaraspor to win @ 1.90

Denizlispor – Fenerbahce
Gaziantepspor – Malatyaspor

I’ll consider these two matches as double with the relation between them. Winner at Gaziantep – Malatya match will be %100 safe but if Denizli loses to Fenerbahce (very possible) than a draw will make safe both sides. If Fenerbahce scores an early goal and extends the lead than, draw possibility for other match will be at least %95 imo. So I may prefer a combo like this that I see very logical but of course if you believe Fenerbahce will win.

Denizli – Fenerbahce (2/2) 1.70
Gaziantep – Malatya (x) 2.70

Odds will be around 4.60 for this combo. You may increase the odds with taking very possible draw/draw for Gaziantep match.

If you see risk at Fenerbahce match than I advice you to take halftime draw for Gaziantep – Malatya match. I think that both teams won’t risk the game until they learn the score at Denizli.

It will be very hard for Denizlispor to beat Fenerbahce due to huge class difference. Fenerbahce are able to score even playing bad. Best possible thing for them is to play for a draw and wait for Gaziantep not to lose. But Denizlispor are not a team with a good defence, they all tried to play defensive football against big teams and lost all matches. Also according to news; coach Daum told to his players that “scoring an early goal will be very important”

I think this combo is very logical, only the risk will be if Denizlispor takes the lead but I won’t see it very possible.

Also I have another conspiration theory for this match. Low possibility but if Denizlispor gets 1 point from Fenerbahce, than Malatyaspor must win against Gaziantepspor. With this score Gaziantepspor won’t relegate too, because they have better h2h stats than Denizlispor. I don’t know if they did this, but if coaches speak before the match they make an arrangement like this. Malatyaspor scores the first goal and than wait for the result of Denizli match. If there is not risk for Denizli to take a point with a draw or with an away win both teams will be safe.

Trabzonspor - Besiktas

This match has been switched off to neutral venue due to Trabzonspor’s suspension but still they are clear favorurites. Under normal conditions, it will be hard to make a predict at a match between two rivals. But this time Trabzonspor have a great ambition to play European Football next season while Besiktas achieved it as cup winner. Actually, Besiktas are not totally targetless. If they win they will finish the league as 3rd they won’t play qualification stage at Uefa Cup next season. But this may not be an extra motivation for them. I’m planning to bet on Trabzonspor but will wait.

Genclerbirligi - C.Rizespor

Easisest match on paper. Genclerbirligi must win and Rizespor have nothing to play. Also Rizespor coach Guvenc Kurtar declared that he will give a rest to regulars and also best player Fahri is suspended. But whatever the conditions are, I won’t take any risk for 1.25. Genclerbirligi will probably win but 1.25 is not the value of this match.

[farnerud]

SUMMARY OF SUMMARY

Ankaraspor to win @ 1.90 (absolutely best bet, odds may drop)

Gaziantep - Malatya (everything depends to other match, but x2 looks like sure)

Trabzonspor to win @ 1.85 (good bet odds are short)

Genclerbirligi to win @ 1.25 (probably home win but never with these odds)

Galatasaray - Kayseri (over) (odds are short for homewin, over is the best bet)

[bromsgrovegreen]

nice work farenud,will be on a couple of those i reckon

[farnerud]

I had made a mistake and now can't edit my post but want to made an amendment with the summary section above.

Draw is also enough for Ankaraspor. Still I think they will win but I change my bet to double chance to be more safer.

Every other info is correct and valid.

[kompressaur]

thanks Farnerud. I dont know how i missed all this. Been busy with stuff. One way or another i wont miss it next week. Bah there wont be a next week.

FT	Manisaspor	0 - 0	Konyaspor
FT	Sivasspor	3 - 1	Ankaragucu

good luck today with your picks. any other Turks out there with a view on how things will go tomorrow?