Bulgarian league, midweek 19/20.03.2008

[engineer]

Lokomotiv Plovdiv - Levski Sofia	34	4.89	3.43	1.57	19.03.2008 - 14:00
Lokomotiva Sofia - Botev Plovdiv	34	1.21	5.02	9.56	19.03.2008 - 14:00
Belasica Petrich - Lovech Liteks	34	4.35	3.50	1.62	19.03.2008 - 14:30
Beroe Stara Zagora - Cherno More Varna	31	1.93	3.13	3.34	19.03.2008 - 14:30
Pirin Blagoevgrad - Chernomorets Burgas	32	1.75	3.32	3.84	19.03.2008 - 14:30
Spartak Varna - Vihren Sandanski	33	1.64	3.45	4.22	19.03.2008 - 14:30
Vidima-Rakovski Sevlievo - CSKA Sofia	34	11.66	6.02	1.14	19.03.2008 - 14:30
Slavia Sofia - Marek Dupnica	34	1.24	4.72	8.78	20.03.2008 - 14:30

Odds from betexplorer.

[engineer]

Opening the thread early as I reckon there will be some significant odds movement.


Starting with two games that hide some good value waiting to be revealed.

Beroe to beat Cherno More. A crucial game for the home team. Yes, they have big out-field problems there, but Beroe is a decent team, that has the support of their fans and the players will do their best to win that game. Beroe put under pressure some of the leaders when visiting in Stara Zagora. On the other hand Cherno More doesn't have much to play for in the league. They are Cup semifinalists and can even hope for a UEFA cup place. Can't see the away team putting too much effort today.
I don't say it's a sure home win, but a decent value for me.

Beroe @2.16 betfair - 2/10 (Sportingbet had 2.30 in the morning that is huge, don't know now)

Bulgarian local bookie offers 1.60 for home win

[engineer]

Pirin to beat Chernomorets.

Great price for a home win in the Bulgarian legue. Two good teams face each other, but I can see Pirin prevailing on their home pitch. They held Botev to a goalless draw during the weekend and should use the home advantage today. Yes, they don't have good home record but that's why they faced all the favourites in Blagoevgrad already. Pirin won the first game in Burgas 4:1, I can see another comfortable victory against Chernomorets today.

Pirin @1.80 bet365 (globet has 1.90) - 4/10

BG local bookie offers 1.45

[engineer]

About the other games today:

CSKA will beat poor Vidima, the home team is the weakest one in the league and can't see them performing against the leaders. Will Hill's price of 1.16 is fair I reckon.

Spartak v Vihren will be a tight game, both teams are desperate for points but the visitors will be happy enough to get a draw. Spartak will try to attack and the team can take a narrow win but I wouldn't risk it to bet at that odds, if the price was evens or higher, Spartak would have taken the nod from me.

Loko Sofia must beat Botev, but both teams met a week ago in a cup 1/4 final in Sofia and Botev won quite easily 2:0. Today it should be a different story and Lokomotiv will do their best to win and keep the 2nd place in the league. Bet 365 offers 1.29 now and that's a generous price for me.

[engineer]

Lokomotiv Plovdiv - Levski and Belasitsa - CSKA are a tricky games in my eyes. Yes, the away teams have better ability but the season is nearly over for them, on the other hand Loko and Bela will try to get something from these games and the motivation will be much better. No bets for me.

[engineer]

Some more decent bets for me to have higher interest in the afternoon as Expekt has some good offers.

Loko Sofia (-1 EH) @1.90 Expekt 3/10
Loko Sofia/Loko Sofia (half time/full time) @1.75 - 4/10

Loko Plovdiv v Levski 1/2 and 2/1 (half time/full time), respectively @26 and @55 - 2x0.4/10
Loko Plovdiv v Levski - over 10 corners @2.00 - bet365 - 2/10

CSKA (-1 EH) @1.60, Expekt - 6/10

Beroe (-1EH) v Cherno More - X (beroe to win by 1 goal) @3.50 Expekt - 1/10