Spanish football 29-30 April

[rcgills]

Primera Liga

29 Apr-20:00	D Coruna v Celta Vigo		2.10	3.25	3.00
29 Apr-20:00	Real Betis v Athletic Bilbao		2.00	3.20	3.30
29 Apr-22:00	Barcelona v Cadiz		1.20	5.50	10.00
30 Apr-17:00	Getafe v Villarreal		2.25	3.20	2.80
30 Apr-17:00	Malaga v Racing Santander		2.50	3.20	2.50
30 Apr-17:00	Real Sociedad v Sevilla		2.40	3.20	2.60
30 Apr-17:00	Real Zaragoza v Espanyol		2.00	3.20	3.30
30 Apr-17:00	Valencia v CD Alaves		1.36	4.33	6.50
30 Apr-19:00	Atletico Madrid v Mallorca		1.72	3.25	4.33
30 Apr-21:00	Osasuna v Real Madrid		2.75	3.20	2.30

Odds from Bet365

Segunda Liga

Saturday, 29/04/2006		Best Odds
18:30	Ciudad Murcia - Almeria	2.5	2.75	2.8
18:30	Levante - Hercules	1.7	3	5.5
18:30	Eibar - Tenerife	2.45	2.75	3
18:30	Valladolid - Sporting Gihon	2.1	2.75	3.85
18:30	Murcia - Almeria	2.6	2.7	2.8
Sunday, 30/04/2006		Best Odds
12:00	Lorca Dep. - Ciudad Murcia	2	2.9	3.65
17:30	Albacete - Real Madrid B	2.25	2.75	3.3
18:00	Lleida - Rec Huelva	2.85	2.75	2.5
18:00	Elche - Castellón	1.9	2.85	4.3
18:00	R.Ferrol - Numancia	2.5	2.8	2.8
18:00	Pol Ejido - Xerez	2.6	2.75	2.8
19:00	Ciudad Murcia - Malaga B	1.33	4	8.25

From our odds comparison site

Will write more later in the week, but have already had 2.5pts each on Getafe at 2.25 and Osasuna at 3.00, both with MiApuesta/Sporting Bet. May top that up later once more team news, etc. is known.

[rcgills]

Some early-ish thoughts on these ones then, as my internet could be getting cut off at any time (I'm moving house this weekend).

In the Primera, as mentioned, I'm already on Getafe and Osasuna. I can see Villarreal suffering a Champions League hangover, and Getafe are in great form anyway, 6-2-2. For Osasuna, 3.00 is too good to turn down, even if they have been poor in their last 2 home games. Real Madrid also have the distraction of their stand-in President Fernando Martin having resigned this week, and they've declared presidential elections for 2nd July.

Only other bet that might tempt me in the Primera is Valencia to win by 2 or more v Alaves. Valencia are back on form, 4 wins in a row, they've scored 13 goals in those 4 games, and have kept clean sheets in the last 3. Alaves, meanwhile, have scored just 2 goals in their last 7 games. To be fair to them, they've also only conceded 4 in those 7 games, but with Valencia in goalscoring form, I fancy them to win this comfortably.

In the Segunda, I'm currently considering Almeria (away to Real Murcia), Ciudad de Murcia (away to Lorca), Huelva (away to Lleida), Ferrol (home to Numancia) and Castellon (away to Elche).

One bet I have already placed in the Segunda is Xerez to win away to Poli Ejido. Poli Ejido are mid-table, in need of a few more points yet to pull clear of the relegation battle, while Xerez are still well in the promotion chase, 4 points adrift with 8 games to go. Poli Ejido are in impressive away form of late, with 3 straight wins, including at Numancia (8th) and Almeria (3rd). However, at home they're less impressive, they've lost their last 2, with one of those being to Castellon who'd previously only won once away all season. Xerez recently went through a major slump, at one point going 11 games without a win. They seem to be turning things around again though, and although they lost last week at home to Levante, there's no shame in that.

However, the main reason for backing Xerez is the players that will be missing for Poli Ejido. They'll be without Curro Vacas (defender, missed 2 games all season, they lost them both), Kike (first choice keeper) and Victor Salas (midfielder, just 5 games missed this season), all through suspension. Xerez will be without Colorado (midfield, 16 games played). That's some major players missing there for Ejido, well worth taking a shot on Xerez in my opinion.

Will post more later, and try to shorten that shortlist, once team news is known. Will post on here if I'm still online by then .

Current bets:
Osasuna v Real Madrid @ 3.00 2.5pts
Getafe v Villarreal @ 2.25 2.5pts
Poli Ejido v Xerez @ 2.80 4pts

[skinny]

Thanks RC, keeping closely to your picks.

[rcgills]

Cheers Skinny, and welcome to TDP by the way

One bet for the weekend in the Segunda B Group 4.

Sevilla B v Extremadura is 4th v 5th, only 1 point apart, and I fancy Sevilla B's chances of winning this game. A win would take them at least 3 points clear of 5th place, or 4 points clear if Ecija don't win in Mérida (it's the top 4 that go into the promotion play-offs).

Sevilla B aren't the strongest at home, 6-6-4, but it's more Extremadura's poor form that makes me like this bet. Their away record at first glance looks reasonably respectable, 6-2-8, but looking in a bit more detail, it turns out that they actually won 6 and drew 1 of their first 8 away from home. Since then, they've managed just one point in their last 8 away games, and just 2 goals in those 8 games. They've lost their last 6 games away from home, and they're on a 4 game losing streak overall (2 at home and 2 away), scoring just one goal in those 4 games. Not sure what's caused this terrible run of form, I'll see if I can find out, but in any case, 1.90 on Sevilla B looks pretty good to me. Smallish stakes as usual, as team news is hard to come by in this league.

Sevilla B v Extremadura @ 1.90 3pts

[rcgills]

According to the Villarreal website, Riquelme and Tacchinardi are both rated very doubtful for this weekend's game. If Riquelme misses out, I may top up that bet on Getafe, as Villarreal without him are a far weaker proposition.

Elsewhere, FIFA have denied the Spanish FA permission to extend their season until the 20th May. They wanted to play all the last round of games on that day, but FIFA have said no. As a result only the postponed Sevilla v Barcelona game will be played that day, and neither side will be allowed to include any of their players called up for World Cup duty. They have to play that day as now that both sides have reached their respective European finals, they have no free dates before the 20th May. All other clubs will finish their season the weekend before that, 13th-14th May.

[rcgills]

Sure enough, Riquelme and Tacchinardi miss out for Villarreal, along with Sorin and Josico.

As a result I'm going to have another 2.5pts on Getafe, at the 2.20 which is now available

[bromsgrovegreen]

cmon getafe,will get on tomorrow on the coupon after reading the above!

[Wilco]

Nothing for Villareal to play for, Confidence is probably rock bottom, Without the players above i would think this game will be much more difficult for them than it already is

Getafe look a solid bet and i'll shall be on them along with Valencia and Gimnastico de Tarragona who are up against Malaga B

[rcgills]

Welcome to TDP, Wilco . You're right, Gimnastic should beat Malaga B. Don't normally like backing at such short odds myself, but I can't see you having too many problems with that one.

[kilroy]

Anyone fancying Real Sociedad against Sevilla ? The hometeam seems to be on a good run while Sevilla played on thursday and managed to continue in the cup.

Shorely there must be some tired legs and faces, with heads and thoughts flying high. Can they focus on the next game, is it even important?

[skinny]

Getafe vs Villarreal

Getafe v Villarreal
18-DEC-05	Villarreal	2-1	Getafe	Spain Primera
01-MAY-05	Villarreal	4-0	Getafe	Spain Primera
12-DEC-04	Getafe	1-2	Villarreal	Spain Primera
10-OCT-01	Getafe	1-2	Villarreal	Spain - Copa del Rey
13-FEB-00	Villarreal	2-1	Getafe	Spain Segunda
19-SEP-99	Getafe	0-2	Villarreal	Spain Segunda

The results seem to favour Villarreal and Villarreal had already lost twice in a row:

Barcelona	1	0	Villarreal	14/04/06
Villarreal	0	2	Real Sociedad	22/04/06

Villarreal has not lost thrice in a row this season.
(The above results are the one time it lost twice in a row)

I am thinking of placing a small bet on DRAW......

Care to exchange some ideas. Thanks.

[skinny]

For: Real Sociedad against Sevilla

Thinking of going for draw. Seems like a draw to me.
(Base on feeling)

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by skinny

Getafe vs Villarreal


The results seem to favour Villarreal and Villarreal had already lost twice in a row:

Villarreal has not lost thrice in a row this season.
(The above results are the one time it lost twice in a row)

I am thinking of placing a small bet on DRAW......

Care to exchange some ideas. Thanks.

The H2H do seem to favour Villarreal, you're right Skinny, but I'd discount the first three of those as they were over 5 years ago, and in a different division. I still fancy Getafe in this one, the momentum is definitely with them, and with the players missing for Villarreal, I think they're well capable of winning. I wouldn't rule out the draw, but I think the better value is with Getafe.

[gfal]

rcgills any comment for LORCA-CIOUDAD de MURCIA??????

[rcgills]

Welcome to TDP, gfal . That game's one to avoid in my opinion. Lorca have only lost once at home all season (back in September), but Murcia, apart from a blip in their last game when they lost at home to Eibar, have been in good form. Prior to that Eibar game, they'd won 5 in a row in total, and were 4-1-0 for their last 5 away games. Could go either way, this one, good luck whatever you decide.