Spain 19/20 May

[Monty H.]

Mallorca v Valencia
Both teams having a great run, last 6 Mallorca played 5-0-1 goals 11-2..
last 6 Valencia played 4-0-2 goals 9-4..
was thinking to back Valencia, theyre such a great team and a pleasure to watch but mallorca are in to good a form to ignore so over 2.5 @ 2.0 awsome bet imo gl..

[rcgills]

Two bets for me today. Well, technically 3, but two of them are on the same thing.

Firstly Mallorca against Valencia. Mallorca are at full strength according to Marca. Valencia will be without Morientes. Just a value thing here really, Mallorca are an absolutely huge price for a team in the form they're in.

Mallorca v Valencia @ 3.8 2pts
Mallorca (DNB) v Valencia @ 2.5 2pts

And in the Segunda, I'm going for overs in the Almeria v Ponferradina game. Almeria looking to clinch promotion in front of their own fans, to do so they need to win. Ponferradina in the relegation zone and needing the points desperately. Almeria's last 8 homes have been overs, and 13 of their 18 home games altogether. Only 4 of Ponferradina's 18 aways have been overs, but for this one they're going to have to come out of their shells a bit. Almeria are the top scorers in the division, and capable of sticking a couple of goals past any team, and a 2-0 defeat would be no use whatsoever to Ponferradina, so they'll have to go for it.

Almeria v Ponferradina over 2.5 goals @ evens 4pts

[perke666]

why getafe beat barcelona 4:0? only "big" game for barca till the end of the season is against atl. madrid (at least they thought so) so barca gave away a Cup place in favor of Getafe so they are in CU next season, and they don't need to play games in Primera with 100% of strength and as we know Atl. Madrid beat them 4:1 last week??? as we can see barca gave getafe Cup; getafe gave points to atl. madrid and this weekend... so my pick is Barca to win, 8pts (by the way I am huge Valencia fan, so this pick is not subjective)

[Monty H.]

Cant agree with you more honestly have you ever seen such a high value on one of the best teams in the world?

Originally Posted by perke666

why getafe beat barcelona 4:0? only "big" game for barca till the end of the season is against atl. madrid (at least they thought so) so barca gave away a Cup place in favor of Getafe so they are in CU next season, and they don't need to play games in Primera with 100% of strength and as we know Atl. Madrid beat them 4:1 last week??? as we can see barca gave getafe Cup; getafe gave points to atl. madrid and this weekend... so my pick is Barca to win, 8pts (by the way I am huge Valencia fan, so this pick is not subjective)

Really annoying, i just logged in to write the same thing

edit: as a Valencia fan whats your call on your team this week then eh?!

[rcgills]

Interesting theory, Perke, and one I'd not seen before. Can see where you're coming from to a certain extent, and it does seem to make a fair bit of sense in terms of Getafe losing to Atletico. However, I can't see where Atletico Madrid v Barca fits into that. Atletico owe Barcelona nothing, and they're playing for their place in the UEFA Cup.

Not saying Barcelona won't win, though, and I think I'll be steering clear of the game myself, it's a tough one to call. Don't think there's much value in Barcelona at evens though.

[perke666]

as we know getafe have one of best defence in Primera, and somehow they suddenly concede 4 goals??? barca gave getafe, getafe gave atl madrid and now atl owe barca, what u can't understand rc? this is very common way of playing football (especially in Primera). by the way, I am from Serbia. for Valencia game this week I think it's a straight AWAY WIN. this is why: I know Valencia very, very good, and they play much better when they sit and wait than they have to run for victory, that's why they lost many points against weaker clubs and in couple of games they just don't have luck and concede late goals (Bilbao, Gimnastic), but I don't like to bet on Valencia because I know I can't win because my girlfriend cursed me not win anything at all, and I am concerning to leave her if I don't win anything soon.

[Monty H.]

Eh?!

[perke666]

anything about Hecules-xerez and Gijon-Salamanca games, why odds are dropping? and what u think about Real Madrid B game?

[igor5]

barca gave getafe, getafe gave atl madrid and now atl owe barca, what u can't understand rc? this is very common way of playing football (especially in Primera).

C`mon if we are loking like that every game is already decided ,Barca is better team that`s true but playing against crazy Atletico is never a easy task.

anything about Hecules-xerez and Gijon-Salamanca games, why odds are dropping? and what u think about Real Madrid B game?

Hercules,Gijon and Real Madrid B need points ,opposition that they are playing is safe and money are going on them

but I don't like to bet on Valencia because I know I can't win because my girlfriend cursed me not win anything at all, and I am concerning to leave her if I don't win anything soon.

You have two chooses: leave her or quit betting

[perke666]

I know my chooses, but it is very hard to leave




betting, of course. is there anything else about that games, any important missings or...

[rcgills]

No, sorry, I don't go along with that, Perke. Atletico would be bloody stupid to throw away points on any kind of deal like that - Atletico would've fancied their chances of beating Getafe anyway, without getting involved in any kind of deal. Although of course losing tomorrow would be bitter-sweet for them, as although they'll want to win for themselves, Barcelona winning would be a blow to Real Madrid, which would at least be a silver lining for Atletico fans

Would wish you good luck on Barcelona tomorrow, but I don't want them to win the title, so sorry, but I hope Atletico beat them

My Almeria overs bet has come in after 20 minutes

[igor5]

Spain - Primera Division
FT Mallorca 0-1 Valencia (0-0)
FT Real Betis 1-1 Gimnastic (0-0)

Spain - Segunda Division
FT Hercules 2-0 Xerez
FT Almeria 3-1 Ponferradina (2-1)
FT Deportivo Alaves 2-1 Poli Ejido (0-1)
FT Numancia 3-0 Las Palmas (1-0)
FT Sporting Gijon 2-1 Salamanca (1-0)
FT Vecindario 2-1 Real Madrid B (1-1)

*Plenty of goals in Secunda 5/6 games over2,5

What a game in Zaragoza ....
Zaragoza was 4-1 at HT and now couple of min till the end is 4-3..........
C`mon Bilbao one more

[$olvent]

SPA La Liga, Injuries, May 20

Deportivo 21 VALERÓN Juan Carlos AMC ** 20.1 INJURED - / 34
Deportivo # RODRI DC * 13.1 INJURED - / 34
Deportivo 4 DUSCHER Aldo DMC * 19.5 OUT 12 / 34
Deportivo 7 BODIPO Rodolfo SC * 19.5 BACK from injury 1 / 34
Deportivo 12 ADRIÁN López FW * 19.5 BACK from injury 5 / 34
Deportivo 35 RIVERA Ruben SC - 17.3 OUT 1 / 34
Deportivo 20 CRISTIAN HIDALGO FC * 28.4 INJURED 22 / 34
Deportivo 22 JUANMA DC * 4.5 OUT 7 / 34
Deportivo 24 VERDÚ Joan MC * 28.4 OUT 10 / 34
Deportivo 3 ALVAREZ Pablo AMR * 19.5 OUT 3 / 34
Deportivo 26 IAGO AMC - 19.5 INJURED 1 / 34

Sevilla 8 POULSEN Christian DMC ** 19.5 INJURED 24 / 34
Sevilla 9 KERZHAKOV SC * 19.5 OUT 8 / 34
Sevilla 21 PABLO Ruiz DLC * 28.8 INJURED - / 34
Sevilla 22 FERNANDO SALES AMRC * 19.5 OUT - / 34

Espanyol 6 EDUARDO COSTA DMC ** 19.5 OUT 8 / 34
Espanyol 8 ZABALETA Pablo DMRC ** 19.5 INJURED 16 / 34
Espanyol 11 RIERA Albert AML ** 19.5 INJURED 20 / 34
Espanyol 3 DAVID GARCÍA DL * 19.5 INJURED 7 / 34
Espanyol 32 SERRAN DC * 5.5 OUT 2 / 34
Espanyol 14 ITO DMC * 19.5 INJURED 3 / 34
Espanyol 15 FREDSON Camara DMRC * 27.1 OUT 2 / 34
Espanyol 25 PEIXOTO Paulo Cesar AML * 9.9 INJURED - / 34

Getafe 6 CELESTINI Fabio DMC *** 19.5 OUT 32 / 34
Getafe 7 COTELO Mario DMRC ** 19.5 BACK from injury 24 / 34
Getafe 8 VIVAR DORADO AMRC ** 19.5 INJURED 9 / 34
Getafe 10 PAUNOVIC Veljko AMRL ** 10.2 OUT 7 / 34
Getafe 20 ALEXIS Ruano DRC ** 12.5 OUT 24 / 34
Getafe 21 CORTES David DR ** 12.5 OUT 16 / 34
Getafe 5 PULIDO Rubén DC * 19.5 BACK from injury 8 / 34
Getafe 12 LICHT Lucas DL * 12.5 OUT 4 / 34

Levante 7 ETTIEN Félix DMR ** 20.5 SUSPENDED 24 / 34
Levante 8 KAPO Oliver AMLC ** 19.5 OUT 27 / 34
Levante 11 ZE MARIA D/DMRC ** 19.5 BACK 10 / 34
Levante 12 BERSON Mathieu M ** 12.5 INJURED 22 / 34
Levante 20 DÉHÚ Frédéric DRC ** 12.5 INJURED 10 / 34
Levante 2 MANOLO GASPAR DR * 19.5 BACK 11 / 34
Levante 14 HARTE Ian DL * 7.4 INJURED 4 / 34
Levante 16 SALVA BALLESTA SC * 19.5 BACK from injury 11 / 34
Levante 22 ROBERT Laurent AML * 19.5 BACK from injury 8 / 34
Levante 13 AIZPURÚA Jose Ignacio GK - 28.8 INJURED - / 34

Osasuna 9 MILOSEVIC Savo SC *** 21.4 INJURED 17 / 34
Osasuna 17 FLAÑO Javier DC ** 19.5 BACK 24 / 34
Osasuna 23 DELPORTE Ludovic AML ** 28.4 INJURED 7 / 34
Osasuna 2 IZQUIERDO Jose DRC * 19.5 INJURED 9 / 34
Osasuna 3 MONREAL Nacho DL * 12.5 OUT 8 / 34
Osasuna 8 ROMEO Bernardo SC * 12.5 OUT 4 / 34
Osasuna 21 HÉCTOR FONT AMC * 19.5 INJURED 6 / 34
Osasuna 35 ERICE DMC * 28.4 OUT 4 / 34

R.Sociedad 2 GERARDO Garcia D/DMRC ** 4.5 INJURED 25 / 34
R.Sociedad 4 RIVAS Diego DMC ** 19.5 INJURED 19 / 34
R.Sociedad 6 LABAKA Mikel DC ** 19.5 OUT 11 / 34
R.Sociedad 16 URANGA Gari FC ** 3.3 OUT 17 / 34
R.Sociedad 19 GARRIDO Javier DL ** 19.5 BACK from suspension 19 / 34
R.Sociedad 22 MIKEL ALONSO AMRC ** 19.5 BACK 6 / 34
R.Sociedad 3 MIKEL GONZÁLEZ Martínez DC * 19.5 BACK from suspension 17 / 34
R.Sociedad 7 JESULI M * 10.3 INJURED 10 / 34
R.Sociedad 12 SKOUBO Morten SC * 17.2 INJURED 1 / 34
R.Sociedad 21 STEVANOVIC Dalibor AMC * 30.9 INJURED 1 / 34
R.Sociedad 28 ELUSTONDO Gorka M * 7.4 INJURED 5 / 34

Celta Vigo 3 GEORGE LUCAS DR ** 16.9 INJURED 2 / 34
Celta Vigo 5 LEQUI Matías DLC ** 5.5 INJURED 20 / 34
Celta Vigo 24 CANOBBIO Néstor FLC ** 19.5 BACK from injury 29 / 34
Celta Vigo 25 IRINEY Santos DMC ** 16.5 INJURED 25 / 34
Celta Vigo 14 PERERA Jesús SC * 12.5 BACK from injury 1 / 34
Celta Vigo 18 GUAYRE Antonio FLC * 8.4 INJURED 2 / 34
Celta Vigo 20 ASPAS Jonathan D/DMC * 21.4 INJURED 8 / 34
Celta Vigo 30 VILA Jonathan M * 21.4 OUT 2 / 34
Celta Vigo 6 AREIAS Miguel DR - 12.5 OUT 1 / 34

Villarreal 8 RIQUELME Juan Román AMC *** 10.2 LOAN OUT 13 / 34
Villarreal 3 ARRUABARRENA Rodolfo DL ** 5.5 OUT 16 / 34
Villarreal 6 JOSICO DMRC ** 12.5 INJURED 20 / 34
Villarreal 15 NIHAT Kahveci SC ** 24.11 INJURED 7 / 34
Villarreal 16 QUIQUE ÁLVAREZ DLC ** 19.5 BACK from injury 11 / 34
Villarreal 12 CYGAN Pascal DC ** 5.5 INJURED 20 / 34
Villarreal 22 PEÑA Juan Manuel DC * 14.4 INJURED 6 / 34
Villarreal 23 JOSÉ MARÍ FRC * 5.5 INJURED 7 / 34
Villarreal 33 JONATHAN Pereira SC - 28.4 OUT - / 34

Racing 10 MUNITIS Pedro AML/FC *** 19.5 SUSPENDED 32 / 34
Racing 17 LUIS FERNÁNDEZ Gutiérrez DL ** 19.5 INJURED 17 / 34
Racing 22 MORATÓN José DC ** 12.5 INJURED - / 34
Racing 23 MELO Felipe AMC ** 19.5 BACK from injury 9 / 34
Racing 2 ALFARO Pablo DLC * 17.2 INJURED 2 / 34
Racing 9 AGANZO David SC * 25.11 INJURED - / 34
Racing 16 MOMO AML * 19.5 BACK from injury 1 / 34
Racing 24 MATABUENA Sergio DMC * 12.5 OUT 1 / 34

Recreativo 1 LÓPEZ VALLEJO Javier GK ** 11.5 INJURED 30 / 34
Recreativo 2 EDU MOYÁ DR ** 27.4 INJURED 14 / 34
Recreativo 5 MARIO Pedro DC ** 19.5 INJURED 23 / 34
Recreativo 15 VIQUEIRA Emilio DMC ** 7.4 OUT 20 / 34
Recreativo 24 DANI BAUTISTA DL ** 19.5 BACK from injury 21 / 34
Recreativo 12 BOUZÓN Iago DC * 11.5 INJURED 1 / 34
Recreativo 23 CHELI MR * 19.5 BACK from injury 1 / 34

R.Madrid 8 EMERSON DMC *** 19.5 INJURED 25 / 34
R.Madrid 2 SALGADO Michel DR ** 19.5 OUT 14 / 34
R.Madrid 16 GAGO DMC ** 19.5 BACK from injury 11 / 34
R.Madrid 10 ROBINHO FLC ** 19.5 BACK from suspension 16 / 34
R.Madrid 15 RAÚL BRAVO DLC * 17.3 INJURED 3 / 34
R.Madrid 18 CASSANO Antonio FC * 28.4 OUT 5 / 34
R.Madrid 22 PAVÓN Francisco DC * 5.5 OUT - / 34
R.Madrid 23 BECKHAM David MRC * 19.5 BACK from suspension 10 / 34
R.Madrid 25 MIÑAMBRES Oscar DMR - 31.3 OUT - / 34

At.Madrid 22 PABLO Ibáñez DC *** 19.5 INJURED 22 / 34
At.Madrid 25 LEO FRANCO GK ** 5.5 INJURED 29 / 34
At.Madrid 8 GABI AMR * 19.5 INJURED 6 / 34
At.Madrid 18 VALERA Juan D/MR * 17.3 INJURED 4 / 34
At.Madrid 45 VICTOR BRAVO M * 14.4 OUT 2 / 34
At.Madrid 19 DE LAS CUEVAS Miguel FW - 13.5 OUT - / 34

Barcelona 4 MÁRQUEZ Rafael D/DMC ** 4.5 INJURED 19 / 34
Barcelona 3 MOTTA Thiago MLC * 19.5 BACK from injury 5 / 34
Barcelona 8 GIULY Ludovic AMRC * 19.5 BACK 15 / 34
Barcelona 16 SYLVINHO DML * 12.5 OUT 11 / 34
Barcelona 22 SAVIOLA Javier SC * 19.5 OUT 6 / 34
Barcelona 18 EZQUERRO Santiago FLC - 19.5 OUT 2 / 34

Explanation of stars (*) after the player names.
There are four different categories and they describe the importance of the player. Higher the importance, bigger the effect on estimations.
*** = Irreplaceable Key Player, high importance
** = A starting XI player or an often used rotation player, medium importance
* = Rotation player, small importance
- = A youngster or a very rarely used player, no importance
www.totalctrl.com

[Monty H.]

Shouldve gone with Valencia.. what a team!

Originally Posted by Monty H.

Mallorca v Valencia
Both teams having a great run, last 6 Mallorca played 5-0-1 goals 11-2..
last 6 Valencia played 4-0-2 goals 9-4..
was thinking to back Valencia, theyre such a great team and a pleasure to watch but mallorca are in to good a form to ignore so over 2.5 @ 2.0 awsome bet imo gl..

[rcgills]

Couple of bets for Segunda B games starting at midday (Spanish time), so will be quick.

Malaga B v Portuense

Malaga B have had a terrible season. Just 3 wins all season, 2 of them were against the team 2nd from bottom, and the 3rd was last weekend against mid-table Granada who had nothing to play for. Portuense however have everything to play for.

1	SEVILLA AT.	36	72	21	9	6	52	22
2	LINARES	37	70	19	13	5	62	37
3	CORDOBA	37	69	20	9	8	73	45
4	R. PORTUENSE	36	65	19	8	9	56	36
5	CARTAGENA	36	64	18	10	8	60	38

Only the top 4 make the play offs, so they need a win to keep themselves in 4th spot. What's more, their last game is against 3rd placed Cordoba, which will be tricky, so they really need all 3 points today in what is a much easier game (on paper at least). Low odds, but we're talking about an opponent with a home record of 2-3-13 here. Portuense 8-4-6 away from home.

Malaga B v Portuense @ 1.533 4pts

And secondly, Fuenlabrada v Talavera

Fuenlabrada are mid-table with nothing at all to play for - can finish no higher than 8th, no lower than 14th. Talavera lie 5th, level on points with 4th place, need to finish top 4 for the play offs. Rumours that they may have been offered a financial incentive by Talavera's rivals in order to win this game (quite common in Spain at this stage of the season, not illegal as long as it's an incentive to win rather than to lose). However, Talavera are a strong away side, 9-4-6 for the season, while Fuenlabrada have won just once in their last 6 at home. Talavera supporters expected to outnumber Fuenlabrada at the game. 2.7 on Betfair looks a decent price.

Fuenlabrada v Talavera @ 2.71 2.5pts