World Cup Final 11th July

[slick]

World Cup Final 11th July

Suppose we may aswell add the third and fourth place playoff to this thread, odds for that should appear shortly, in the meantime....
10 Jul 19:30 Uruguay v Germany 5.00 3.60 1.72

[slick]

I don't recall any supsensions for either Spain or Holland so both sides I imagine will be at full strength, Can't see past Spain though after watching both semi finals, In fact if anything Holland should suit Spain as they do try and play some football and are not as physical as the Germans allthough after watching van Bommel you wouldn't think that.
Thats not a bad price for Spain if you ask me and the Holland price is slightly smaller than i would have imagined.

Spain win.

[slick]

As for the 3rd and 4th place playoff, keep an eye on the German team as they may well put out a second string as this game means nothing to them whereas it means a lot to the Uraguayians who were chuffed to bits just to be in the semis.
I should imagine those 5's will drop nearer the kick off.

[harrisonater]

i can see it being a tight match, similar to spain germany, reckon il go for spain to win in extra time at 12 on betafair. xavi has won me some money on picklive this tournament so i mite back him to pick up man of the match too

[edtkh]

Originally Posted by slick

I don't recall any supsensions for either Spain or Holland so both sides I imagine will be at full strength, Can't see past Spain though after watching both semi finals, In fact if anything Holland should suit Spain as they do try and play some football and are not as physical as the Germans allthough after watching van Bommel you wouldn't think that.
Thats not a bad price for Spain if you ask me and the Holland price is slightly smaller than i would have imagined.

Spain win.

I am not sure if I buy into the hype about Spain's supremacy (from every pundit and his dog to Joachim Loew) - in truth, having watched the SF again, I still maintain the match was a very scrappy affair where anyone could have won and the loser couldn't have any complains.

What intrigues me about the Dutch is the lack of media coverage (low expectations, lack of star appeal, playing anything but Total Football) which seems to have worked a treat. Throw in Van Marwijk's tactical acumen and this contest looks an awful lot closer than the odds would suggest. Let's be honest, the Dutch never really looked under threat of being beaten at any point in this tournament bar the Brazil game and even in that match, their powers of recovery were amazing even if this isn't exactly the greatest Brazil side ever.

Spain, on the other hand, have still yet to prove they could handle going a goal down and I just have an inkling that could prove telling in the end. My only concern with the Dutch at the moment is their rather suspect defence (good thing Van Marwijk has been drilling the need to remain focused throughout the tournament) and over-reliance on Robben and Sneijder. That said, the Dutch remains a side that has gone 23 matches unbeaten, including winning their last 14 competitive matches (WC qualifying and the current WC) - if anything, that boasts a level of consistency that suggests their disciplined performances (at the expense of entertaining football) under Van Marwijk could ultimately be what delivers their first Holy Grail.

My initial inclinations are towards the Dutch, despite having said I fancied the winner of the Ger-Spa SF to go the distance at the end of the quarters...

[Suir Thing]

edtkh, if you looked at the Spain / Germany game again, you would see the Spanish had 5 across the back, there was no way through for the Germans, but on the rare occasion they did get through, the Spanish defence were all at sea and we have seen this in all their games, I still don't rate Pique either, the silly way he gave away a penalty against Paraguay, was typical of his bad defending, a penalty that if Paraguay would have scored, the final could have looked so different....I think you also said in a previous post that no team has ever lost their first game and gone on to lift the cup....

[Bigkegman]

How can spain be in the final ?

IMO they have underperformed BIG style - they;ve scrapped through matches time after time but last nights match I though they where fantastic. I think the Germans where happy as larry letting spain have the ball up till half time but after then 2nd half started i thought the germans picked up the pace and caused more problems although i thought both teams defended very well except nobody picked up Puyol and gave him a free header (closet marker was his own team mate).

Podolski was never at the races, Ozil struggled to get the ball and dominate midfield and this is where i think the dutch will have more a threat.

I hope it will be a classic but i cant see it happening - this is the biggest games in these national sides histories and i think they will give nothing away. An early goal would be a blessing i think for the neutral.

I should be shouting on Spain as I got them in the Sure Sweepstake and they'll ned me £50 if they win but I can see Holland sneaking this one.

3/1 aroung Holland to win in 90 mins is tempting but I also think 0-0 or 1-1 come the end of 90 mins and them to sneak it either in injury time of even pens

[slick]

My biggest fear in the Germany game Ed was Spain going a goal down then going the way of England and Germany when chasing the game, it never happened so that theory's still in the air.

As you mention the Dutch defence seems to be its weakest link and the holding midfielders in front of them could be their downfall, Van Bommel looks like a disaster waiting to happen, he got away with a lot against the Uraguayans and I doubt it went unnoticed so I expect his card to be marked. The way the Spanish keep the ball just in front of the back four will really test his patience and if he's not carefull he'll end up getting an early bath.

I should Imagine De Jong will be back on Sunday as the other holding midfielder, for as good as he is he's no Schweinsteiger , more of a bread and butter player in there to win the ball and release, I just cannot see him getting to grips with Xavi or Iniesta without hacking them down

Nobody can dismiss the fact that Holland have now gone 14 WC matches undefeated, thats an achievement on its own but I just have that feeling Spain have that extra bit of quality about them in midfield, they overan Schweinsteiger taking control of the game away from him and he had no answer allthough to his credit he did try his best to get a grip but it never happened as the Spanish were to clever for him.

Like the Germany game and as you can probably tell from what i have wrote above, I think this game will be won and lost in midfield, either down the middle from Spain or down the Flanks from Holland, the two Spanish full backs along with Alonso and Busquets need to be on top of their game to stop Sneijder and Robben, if they do that they stop the main Dutch threat from getting the ball out wide to feed Van persie and Kuyt, if that happens and the Dutch try and play down the middle then the Spanish will swallow them up, same too if the Dutch try it on with the long ball, It will just give possession away, something you can't afford the Spanish to have as they thrive on it.

I can't really see it being a similar game to the German one as the Dutch are more willing to attack, which hopefully will make the game more open and the only chance the Dutch have of winning, They have seen sitting back and just waiting for a break got the Germans nowhere but Paraguay when they did start to push the Spanish to get at their backs , did look dangerous and caused the Spanish plenty of problems. allthough to be fair the Spanish defence looked a lot more solid against Germany with Puyol and Pique back to their best. Pique started a bit shakey but gained confidence as the game went on and finsihed solid as a rock.

I've backed Holland all the way through this Tournament and said they were my dark horses for the WC, I've also tipped Spain and Still have money riding on them for the title but now its come to the final hurdle I'm sticking with Spain my original pick as I think they just have that extra bit of quality and the experience of having won a final two years ago in the Euro's might just give them that extra edge.

[edtkh]

Originally Posted by Suir Thing

edtkh, if you looked at the Spain / Germany game again, you would see the Spanish had 5 across the back, there was no way through for the Germans, but on the rare occasion they did get through, the Spanish defence were all at sea and we have seen this in all their games, I still don't rate Pique either, the silly way he gave away a penalty against Paraguay, was typical of his bad defending, a penalty that if Paraguay would have scored, the final could have looked so different....I think you also said in a previous post that no team has ever lost their first game and gone on to lift the cup....

That's my point.

The Spaniards have flattered to deceive, but have somehow managed to come up with the goods at critical times (Villa either finds his scoring boots or Casillas makes a timely penalty save) by sheer luck or brilliance. Puyol and Pique are jokes of a defender (as a matter of fact, I never rated Fernando Hierro either, but he puts these two to shame). As was evident for 73 minutes of the match yesterday, both sides had 9 men behind the ball when defending and it just happened to be Spain's day. The Dutch have got a team that thrives on playing a similar style and more than capable of matching the Spaniards on their day.

If you're looking for some sort of omen, the last team to graft their way to the final on the back of 1-0 wins in the R16, QF and SF was Germany in 2002 - they were eventually found wanting in the final by a brilliant Ronaldo-inspired Brazil. I think Spain could still be found out as Del Bosque still hasn't gotten his tactics spot on - the Dutch could just be the ones to expose the flaw of playing either (or both) Pedro/Busquets. As things stand, this Spanish side offers virtually no threat from open play aside from Villa, Iniesta and Xavi (their only other source of goals being set pieces).

On the back of such foundations, I find it hard to convince myself a team like that should be odds on to win this (I am not saying the Dutch should be favourites, but this is essentially a 50-50 match for me).

As a matter of fact, not only has no team won the World Cup after losing their first match; no team that has won the World Cup since 1982 has actually lost a match at any point (I'm not interested in WC's pre-1982 as it did not consist of a "Group Phase --> R16 --> QF --> SF --> F" format).

[edtkh]

Originally Posted by slick

My biggest fear in the Germany game Ed was Spain going a goal down then going the way of England and Germany when chasing the game, it never happened so that theory's still in the air.

As you mention the Dutch defence seems to be its weakest link and the holding midfielders in front of them could be their downfall, Van Bommel looks like a disaster waiting to happen, he got away with a lot against the Uraguayans and I doubt it went unnoticed so I expect his card to be marked. The way the Spanish keep the ball just in front of the back four will really test his patience and if he's not carefull he'll end up getting an early bath.

I should Imagine De Jong will be back on Sunday as the other holding midfielder, for as good as he is he's no Schweinsteiger , more of a bread and butter player in there to win the ball and release, I just cannot see him getting to grips with Xavi or Iniesta without hacking them down

Nobody can dismiss the fact that Holland have now gone 14 WC matches undefeated, thats an achievement on its own but I just have that feeling Spain have that extra bit of quality about them in midfield, they overan Schweinsteiger taking control of the game away from him and he had no answer allthough to his credit he did try his best to get a grip but it never happened as the Spanish were to clever for him.

Like the Germany game and as you can probably tell from what i have wrote above, I think this game will be won and lost in midfield, either down the middle from Spain or down the Flanks from Holland, the two Spanish full backs along with Alonso and Busquets need to be on top of their game to stop Sneijder and Robben, if they do that they stop the main Dutch threat from getting the ball out wide to feed Van persie and Kuyt, if that happens and the Dutch try and play down the middle then the Spanish will swallow them up, same too if the Dutch try it on with the long ball, It will just give possession away, something you can't afford the Spanish to have as they thrive on it.

I can't really see it being a similar game to the German one as the Dutch are more willing to attack, which hopefully will make the game more open and the only chance the Dutch have of winning, They have seen sitting back and just waiting for a break got the Germans nowhere but Paraguay when they did start to push the Spanish to get at their backs , did look dangerous and caused the Spanish plenty of problems. allthough to be fair the Spanish defence looked a lot more solid against Germany with Puyol and Pique back to their best. Pique started a bit shakey but gained confidence as the game went on and finsihed solid as a rock.

I've backed Holland all the way through this Tournament and said they were my dark horses for the WC, I've also tipped Spain and Still have money riding on them for the title but now its come to the final hurdle I'm sticking with Spain my original pick as I think they just have that extra bit of quality and the experience of having won a final two years ago in the Euro's might just give them that extra edge.

Fair point, slick.

Maybe I am speaking with the benefit of hindsight now, but I was confident of picking the Germany -1.5 bet against Argentina (when everyone else thought I had mistaken softball for football ) simply because I had envisaged the gameplan Joachim Loew would deploy before he actually revealed it post-match (and, just as with England, the strategy would only work if they could get an early goal and force their opponents to chase the game). That game was a prime example of perfect execution of strategy for me.

Ultimately, however, I thought where the Germans fell short yesterday was not in their strategy or gameplan; they were simply unable to impose themselves (maybe inexperience was the main reason) and the longer the game stayed at 0-0, the tougher it became for them to engineer openings as they were obviously not schooled to play the brand of football the Spaniards excel in - and for which the Dutch will be well prepared for. More importantly, I am still not convinced about their mental strength to cope with the big occasions as I still feel that's what's inhibiting them from performing at their potential.

As has been mentioned, I am totally curious to know how this match would have been priced up had the Spaniards not won Euro 2008 - I don't think the bookmakers have adequately considered this if the prices are anything to go by for, without question, the Dutch come into this final on the back of a far superior record. You could argue that the Spaniards have yet to peak, but let's be honest with ourselves: time is running out and on the back of the 6 matches so far, are we seriously expecting something massive to turn on in the next 72 hours when nothing has happened for the past 72 days? More importantly, the Dutch too could turn things on its head as I don't think they have played to their potential either. All said and done, I just feel Holland's comeback against Brazil could prove telling in terms of revealing where a slight edge would lie as Spain have still flattered to deceive (in retrospect, their profligacy in front of goal against Switzerland should have revealed hints of things to come in their next 5 matches).

I couldn't agree more about your assessment - for the Dutch, it's about stopping Villa, Xavi and Iniesta; for the Spaniards, it's all about Sneijder and Robben. All said and done, I still think this comes down to a coin toss (or maybe the call of Octopus Paul ) ...

[Kiko]

All opposing Spain go and cancel your bets if you can....Paul The Octopuss has just predicted a Spanish victory!

Dutch players contemplating flying home tomorrow and boycotting the final now!

[deeloughran]

He also predicted Germany to beat Uruguay...

who the fuck came up with the idea to do this with ....an octupus?

[Suir Thing]

Originally Posted by edtkh

That's my point.

The Spaniards have flattered to deceive, but have somehow managed to come up with the goods at critical times (Villa either finds his scoring boots or Casillas makes a timely penalty save) by sheer luck or brilliance. Puyol and Pique are jokes of a defender (as a matter of fact, I never rated Fernando Hierro either, but he puts these two to shame). As was evident for 73 minutes of the match yesterday, both sides had 9 men behind the ball when defending and it just happened to be Spain's day. The Dutch have got a team that thrives on playing a similar style and more than capable of matching the Spaniards on their day.

If you're looking for some sort of omen, the last team to graft their way to the final on the back of 1-0 wins in the R16, QF and SF was Germany in 2002 - they were eventually found wanting in the final by a brilliant Ronaldo-inspired Brazil. I think Spain could still be found out as Del Bosque still hasn't gotten his tactics spot on - the Dutch could just be the ones to expose the flaw of playing either (or both) Pedro/Busquets. As things stand, this Spanish side offers virtually no threat from open play aside from Villa, Iniesta and Xavi (their only other source of goals being set pieces).

On the back of such foundations, I find it hard to convince myself a team like that should be odds on to win this (I am not saying the Dutch should be favourites, but this is essentially a 50-50 match for me).

As a matter of fact, not only has no team won the World Cup after losing their first match; no team that has won the World Cup since 1982 has actually lost a match at any point (I'm not interested in WC's pre-1982 as it did not consist of a "Group Phase --> R16 --> QF --> SF --> F" format).

LOL Fernando Hierro 'a defender!' and Pique is a dead ringer, bag of shite everytime he is in a 50/50, the way he pulled the arm of that Paraguayan the other nite was just like Hierro would do.....as the commentator said...'if he wanted an Irish shirt that bad he could have got one for 30 quid'

YouTube - SPAIN - IRELAND 1/8 FINAL WORLD CUP 2002

YouTube - SPAIN - IRELAND 1/8 FINAL WORLD CUP 2002

[edtkh]

Having taken a good look at the two sides in the lead up to the final, I have seen little to alter my initial views on this one (at the expense of defying Oracle Paul, who thankfully has never predicted a final correctly yet ). For the reasons already discussed above, I will be going medium stakes on Holland (4.00 @ Betfair) and having a small flutter on Holland -1.5 (10.00 @ Ladbrokes).

There's very little separating the pair IMO, but I just feel that Holland's winning pedigree all through qualifying and the WC itself could prove telling (I always felt the Spaniards were a little inhibited by the weight of expectation and Casillas has finally come clean about that at http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/world_cup_2010/8807984.stm) and much as I hate to admit (having enjoyed their brand of Total Football immensely in the past), Van Marwijk could just be the man to provide them with that extra defensive edge to get them to the promised land. More importantly, their come-from-behind experience against the Brazilians could just provide them with a slight edge should proceedings become tight as the match wears on.

As was the case with Germany-Spain (in fact, for all matches involving Spain at this WC), I see the team scoring first going on to win this and if the Dutch can get the first goal with a reasonable amount of time left to play, the Spaniards can always be caught on the counter attack.

[slick]

I'm not changing my mind either and sticking with Spain, nerves might play a part but Holland will just be as tetchy, weight of expectation may not be the same but there's a lot of people who think Holland will win this so its buliding.

Anyhow good luck lads no matter who you've backed, lets hope its a great game to finish these finals off and not weighed down by nerves.

The fridge is well stocked and I've allready had a couple of testers, once my dinners out of the way with it'll be time to get stuck in, I was going to go out and watch the match but I can't be arsed now, I'll watch it on my big telly instead.