World Cup Spread Betting

[ONEDUNME]

Just a discussion on a few markets in case anyone is interested. There are far too many markets to mention but feel free to add/ask if you have a particular interest

[ONEDUNME]

I was hoping to be able to copy and paste some markets but I'm afraid I can't, and I'm too fucked to bother to type it all out.

Bastard


I was going to give the spread firms some decent free publicity but unless I can find a copy/paste friendly version , fuck em.

[ONEDUNME]

This is from letscomparebets.com

Goal betting and the FIFA World Cup…. goal bet tips

A number of our readers are interested in goal betting. We’ve written about goal betting in various forms before, including correct score goal betting and over goals betting. This post takes a quick look at some World Cup goal betting tips.
With 16 days until the World Cup with lots of attacking football on the cards goal betting is back on the agenda. Lets look at an interesting England goal bet. Check out England’s recent form against Mexico. Three goals in total. In fact since 2007 England have been scoring quite a few goals. Possibly due to the opposition not being up to scratch. A quick look at England’s friendlies over the last couple of years shows the sort of teams England scores most goals against. Before Mexico England beat Egypt 3-1 against.

On to the FIFA World Cup 2010. England games have produced more than 2.5 goals in 80% of their games since 2007. Considering Fabio Capello wants more aggressive football during the tournament this trend may well continue. Exclude the likes of Brazil, Portugal, and Spain, and World Cup goal bet must be worth considering.
What is an over goals bet? The bookmaker provides odds that there will be more or less than 2.5 goals. This basically means three or more goals for ‘over’ and two or less goals for ‘under’.
For correct score betting don’t gamble on a clean sheet for England because they have only managed that in 3 of the last ten games. A better choice would be Portugal. Portugal haven’t scored a goal in their last 7 games. Portugal to keep a clean sheet would have paid out in 80% of their games.

[ONEDUNME]

A few basic spreads - 64 games remember

total goals
160 -162 with spreadex 159-161.5 sporting index, the rest are mix and match

yellow cards
287-297

red cards
19.5-21

headed goals
30-32

offsides
370-380

corners
647-657

own goals
3.7-4

The problem with betting on these markets is that the more games there are, the more likely the average is likely to pan out and the more likely it is to fall smack bang in their spread figure. It's a surefire profitmaker for the spread firms.

If you're tempted by the own goals market, don't be. The panel who sit on these matters are very, very reluctant to take a goal from an attacking player and pin it on a defender. If it's travelling in vaguely the right direction and it takes a 90% angle of a defender's arse, it won't be awarded an OG. The defender practally has to dribble round three attackers and slot the ball into the corner for it to be given.

I'd advise against backing own goals (

[ONEDUNME]

One market I have had success with and will be giving another go for old times sake is the disallowed goals market. Priced up quite highly this year at 24.5-26.

You might think that disallowed goals are quite rare, and you'd probably be right. You might also think that with refs being as strict as they are these days that players would be too wise to just blast the ball into the back of the net after they'd heard the whistle go for offside - there, you would be wrong. Players will even go as far as to round the keeper (standing like a statue on hearing the whistle) and roll the ball into the open net. Yes, they really are that stupid. An average of one ever couple of games seems high but it's a market that owes me nothing and I'm on it again.

[ONEDUNME]

Headed goals 30-32. What are we thinking the effect of altitude might have on headed goals eh?

No I don't know either.

[ONEDUNME]

Missed pens 12.5 -13.5 (sportingindex).

This market includes penatly shoot outs so what you're really gambling on is some of the knockout games ending in draws and going on to extra time. A couple of those is almost certain to give you 6 to 8 missed pens which means that you only need one missed pen every ten games to be up to your quota.

I think it's a good buy

Whadayareckon?

[rcgills]

For the penalties market, do they make a distinction between missed penalties and saved penalties? I'd assume that by "missed" they simply mean "not scored", but you wouldn't want to get yourself into a bet like that only to find out halfway through the tournament that they're being fussy about it and not counting any penalties saved by the keeper.

[Quandram]

In the 2006 world cup there were 4 penalty shoot outs containing 12 missed pens (5/4/2/1). 2002 only had 6 (5/1).

I'd place 2 pen shoot outs at closer to 4-6 than 6-8 based on that. That's a lot to make up from the group games. (couldn't quickly find any stats on those).

[Quandram]

Just to complete carry on the theme...

1998 - 8 (3/3/2)
1994 - 11 (4/3/3)
1990- 9 (5/2/2)

Again - not counting group games

[Winrew]

I keep reading about this " new ball " ,
Will this mean more goals ? Or do the players moan about this every four years ?

[ONEDUNME]

To quickly Yale those points in turn, yes saved pens do count as misses inbthis Market but ur question highlights the imporance of checking that what ur betting on is actually what u think it is. not doing that can costvu a lot of money in spread betting.

Quandram, your figures show an average of 3 misses per shout out, therefore I'm happy to stick to an estimate of a MINIMUM of 6 misses for 2 shootouts. I there is a freak variation it is more likely to push the figure up than down as u can only go as low as 1 but the high figure is (in theory) unlimited.

Winrew- yes, the moaning cunts whinge about it every four years.

[ONEDUNME]

sorry about speeeeeling. keyboard hard to operate with just awake eyes

[Colbro]

I've been looking for a bet somewhere on SAfrica working on the theory that it is not inconceivable they could win their group. (after all both Japan and South Korea did in 2002) If they did they would have a relatively easy 2nd round game and a poss quarter final against England.

I've gone for a buy of total goals at 3.4 hoping that in the worst case they can score a goal a game at least if they do not progress and if they do go through there will be some upside.

[Colbro]

So who will score more goals? England v USA or Chile v Honduras ? Personally I think Chile so I have sold England on the my matchmakers index at 0.15.