Biathlon - Womens 10k Pursuit

[Frodo]

Basically the women have just completed their 7.5k sprint race. In the pursuit race the athletes start at time intervals based on their finish in the sprint. Looking at the odds below Boyle Sports either seem to have not realised this and kept the pursuit odds they had up before the sprint or don't have a clue what they're on about.

The results of part one of the pursuit, the sprint....

http://www.vancouver2010.com/olympic-biathlon/schedule-and-results/womens-7.5-km-sprint_btw007101jw.html

The pursuit favours the more consistent shots as there's only 2.5k extra to ski and 2 extra shoots to negotiate. As you can see very few of those athletes quoted above will even start in the top 10.

Of those that do, the first two Kuzmina and Neuner are IMO the most vulnerable to missing shots particularly Kuzmina who at 28th in the world is a shock winner. Neuner is proven champion though prone to massive meltdowns on the range she is rightly favourite because if she gets it right she wins, simple as. Basically one shot is a 200m penalty loop which'll take 20-25 seconds

Those listed in red IMO are either too far behind to win or in Beck's case weren't selected.

9/4 Magdalena Neuner
23/10Jonsson, Helena
8/1Henkel, Andrea
11/1Olofsson, Anna Carin
14/1Wilhelm, Kati
14/1Kuzmina, Anastasiya
16/1Sleptsova, Svetlana
16/1Zaitseva, Olga
18/1Berger, Tora
20/1Domracheva, Darya
20/1Hauswald, Simone
22/1Flatland, Ann Kristin
22/1Beck, Martina
25/1Bailly, Sandrine
28/1Medvedtseva, Olga
28/1Makarainen, Kaisa
28/1Boulygina, Anna

(The above odds are on Boyle Sports but last time I checked Totesport.)

I've covered why Kuzmina and Neuner are vulnerable, the athletes who start 3rd-6th are very inexperienced and the pressure might get to them. This leaves 7th placed Olga Zaitseva who ticks all the boxes, experienced, no slouch on the ski's and reknowned as a reliable shot. If she shoots clear she'll be very tough to beat.

She was 25/1 (before I had a piece - albeit £17 the max they'd allow) but was 6.7 on Betfair last time I checked.

My advice, check out a comparison site there's a few with pretty heafty price differences. Boulygina, Kuzmina and Sleptsova representing the next best value IMO.

There's a potential for palpable error I guess but we'll see.

[Frodo]

Bailly is probably a decent shout too. 25/1. Because of their value I've added Kuzmina and Sleptsova.

In summary,

Kuzmina 14/1
Sleptsova 16/1
Zaitseva 25/1
Bailly 25/1

May lay off the Kuzmina and Sleptsova bets on the day of the race, if none of them have been cancelled.

[Frodo]

Kuzmina 2nd
Zaitseva 7th.

Sleptsova went all or nothing and fucked it on the last shoot trying to get a medal. A couple of misses for Zaitseva put her back just as she looked like she might be ready to pounce on a predicted meltdown from the front two. A clear shoot and she'd have gone close.

Pah bloody Neuner, she has a normal hit rate of 60-70% in the standing shoot but today hit 8/10 (18/20 overall). One more miss and I'd have been quids in, typical thoughtless kraut!

Mens Pursuit could turn into the Svendsen exhibition event maybe one to oppose in-running if the price hits ridiculously short levels early on but if it goes to a sprint finish the only two athletes who could trouble him are to far back.

[Frodo]

Aargh give me some fucking luck.

Took Sumann 80/1, Eder 60/1, Bjorndalen 16/1 in-running because it represented better value than the lay.

Needed the leaders to miss to give my boys a chance on the last shoot. They did. Had Bjorndalen or Sumann shot clear on the last shoot I'd have been quids in. Bjorndalen missed 2, Sumann missed 1.

Sumann (finished 2nd) 15 seconds behind with penalty loop costing over 20 seconds.

Laid Jay at 1.05 for top 3 on the last lap and Eder came in 2 seconds behind in 4th.

I'm away for a cry.