Wimbledon 2011 - 20/6 - 3/7

[Christian]

Finally we are reaching the moment any Tennis lover has been waiting for; the prestigious Wimbledon.

Its not often that we have entered Wimbledon without actually have a clear favourite to win, instead we have a quite open battle between Federer, Nadal and Djokovic.

We have Federer that is a 5-time Wimbledon Champ which hasn´t been his best the past months, but its hard to neglect this champ.
Nadal won the French Open but just weeks prior to that Djokovic was absolutely great on the court and that most likely shook Rafa´s confident a bit.

I expect we have the winner in one of these 4 and based on the recent form of Djokovic and I have a good feeling that we would see him as the Champ.

I will add my thoughts daily for different picks and I look forward to discuss these further we fellow members.

Best,
Christian

[ONEDUNME]

Originally Posted by Christian

Finally we are reaching the moment any Tennis lover has been waiting for; the prestigious Wimbledon.

Its not often that we have entered Wimbledon without actually have a clear favourite to win, instead we have a quite open battle between Federer, Nadal and Djokovic.

.......

I expect we have the winner in one of these 4 and based on the recent form of Djokovic and I have a good feeling that we would see him as the Champ.


Best,
Christian

One of these four Christian. I only count three

[MickeyPaul]

I'm guessing Murray was meant to be in there too. I know absolutely nothing about tennis other than... every time I see Murray play he struggles. I could be a jinx. The big hitters always seem to play out of their skin against him - Roddick for one. I think I backed Roddick to beat him last year at decent odds. The only tennis bet I think I've ever been on. Tsonga was taking him apart at Queen's recently too before fading. His serve was brutal. I think Murray struggled against... someone else last year that hit the ball really hard. Sounds like "wankah" is all I can remember.

I shouldn't be posting on this thread, clearly. Sorry.

[ONEDUNME]

I don't know much about tennis either but it seems like Murray does ok against anyone but the top three, so he's probably likely to make the semis. Unless Nadal has been knocked
out by that time , that's where his Wimbledon is likely end (you can get 2/1 on that happening but that's not a value price in my book.

I think Nadal is the likely winner myself.

[David_Speedie]

I think it will be Djokovic and Sharapova to take the titles but for now will go with 1 day betting at a time:

Today I've gone for the following as a treble:

Milos Raonic 3-0 @ 8/13
Rafael Nadal 3-0 @ 1/12
Andy Murray 3-0 @ 1/4

Looking for players to have comfortable first rounds and whilst I don't know huge amounts about Raonic I read an interesting stat along the lines he's once the most percentage of points on serve than any other player this year.

[Beanie]

I took Hills 13/5 on the top 4 all reaching the semis.

Djok and Murray are the two most likely to throw in a wobble and possibly be upset, but both are in good form coming in, and have kinder draws.

The gap between the 4 and the rest looks bigger than ever atm, Roddick is lacking in match practice and was schooled by Murray, davydenko is no threat this year, Cilic has had a poor year, del potro is still coming back and didn't look great at Queens, players like Soderling, ferrer, monfils, verdasco etc haven't managed to make the step up against the big 4 on grass...Tsonga I can't see beating any of them when they are fully fit.

Injuries might be the biggest danger, but looks a decent bet to me.

[Christian]

Sorry correct I ment 3, not really liking Murray coming into this tournament. I look forward to see Djokovic is his first game and depending on it looks there I will make my final verdict.

In best now - Cilic to win. Look strong and getting started right now. Bought it for 2.42 when he lost first set. But still good value getting in now at 1.53.

Best;
Christian

[yorkieacermark2000]

I actually oppose what your saying Christian i dont want Murray to win and most years have layed him but this year im backing him, not sure why but he is getting better and showing he can hang out lately witht he top guys. Nadal only just beat him a few weeks ago in a close match, Ive had a couple of bets

Murray £15 @ 7.4
Berdych £2 @ 90.0

Womens

Zvonareva £5 @ 17.5
Bartoli £3 @ 30

[Christian]

Interesting Yorkie regarding Murray, I am actully in for 100 now on Gimento @15 against Murray.
Planning to lay off later.

But Murray doesnt look sharp at all - but I guess we will see

Your women bets a I like, good outsiders.

Good luck.

C

[edtkh]

Chela-Kerber-Roddick: 3.15 @ Hills

Quite simply, what this whole lot of hype is with the British players is beyond me. Putting it bluntly, this is a nation - by and large - utterly hopeless at tennis with few exceptions. Andy Murray apart (who is unquestionably a very worthy top notch player and the finest British player in the last 50 years), just about every British player is worth opposing in the early rounds if their opponents are anywhere near being in the top 100. On that note, I am only too happy to seize on an outrageously generous 1.50-ish price for Kerber to see off Laura Robson who has little by way of exposure or experience for a 17-year old (truth be told, 1.50-ish would be generous even if this had been made available for Kerber against Heather Watson or Elena Baltacha whom I'd regard as Britain's best female singles players - and Robson is nowhere close to those levels at present).

Bogomolov probably had the luckiest draw of his life to be pitted against Donald Young in the first round - and in so doing, scraped his way to the R64 at Wimbledon for the first time. All said and done, this is probably as good as it gets for him as I can't see him getting away with those flimsy wobbles and insecure serving which will only play straight into Chela's hands.

Roddick is pretty much self-explanatory. Hanescu simply doesn't belong at this level - or this surface for that matter.

As a matter of fact, these selections aren't governed so much by my faith in them (well, perhaps Roddick would buck that argument) as my sheer conviction in the incompetence of their opponents.

[rcgills]

Good luck Ed. While generally I'd agree with you on Robson v Kerber, there's something about British players and this time of year that makes me nervous. It's true that the majority of Brits are hopeless for 51 weeks of the year, but with the home crowd behind them they sometimes seem to up their game during the first week of Wimbledon. Kerber's in pretty poor form too of late (2 wins in last 10 matches), there'd be too many doubts over that one for me to confidently back Kerber at that kind of price.

Having said all that, Robson is an Aussie anyway (until she wins something)

Few for me for today:

Muller tb Raonic @ 3.4 (Bet365)

Don't really buy into all the hype about Raonic. Yes, he's got a big serve, but so has his opponent today, Gilles Muller. Muller is in decent form coming into this tournament, having won a challenger on grass in Nottingham at the end of May. No way he should be this big a price here in my opinion.

Erakovic tb Hantuchova @ 2.16 (Betfair)

Tough draw here for Hantuchova. She struggled quite badly in the first round against Diatchenko, losing the first set, scraping the 2nd on a tie-break before winning the deciding set. Erakovic has a superb grass court record, 35-9, and has come through qualifying in comfortable fashion, winning all her matches in straight sets.

Hantuchova also had to retire from her semi-final at Eastbourne last week with an abdominal injury, although that may have been influenced by the knowledge that even if she'd won (she was a set and a break down), she would've had to play the final later the same day due to the rain disruptions. Probably therefore a good idea to take this at a bookies that pays out in the event of a retirement.

And lastly a very speculative one:

Kubot to win first set and lose match v Karlovic @ 5.5

Was originally looking at this match with a view to opposing Karlovic. However, having seen the amount of tennis Kubot has had to play already in coming through qualifying (9 sets in qualifying, plus another 5 sets over 3.5 hours yesterday in beating Clement, while Karlovic had a nice easy warmup in the first round, only on court for an hour in going a set and a break up before Tipsarevic retired), I'm not so sure he'll be able to beat Karlovic here. Can see him maybe having the upper hand early on, but as the match goes on, if tiredness sets in, I suspect Karlovic will start finding it easier to hold serve, placing the pressure on Kubot to hold serve and stay with him. Worth a shot for small stakes at a decent price.

[engineer]

Originally Posted by rcgills

Having said all that, Robson is an Aussie anyway (until she wins something)

I guess it would be rather sooner than later, and I'm on her also

Allow me to be on Muller also, RC
That guy Raonic is hugely overestimated at the moment and I can't justify these odds.

[rcgills]

Good to see you here, Engineer

Another one I've just taken - Nadal -10.5 games v Sweeting at 2.2 (Bet365). They've met twice this year, both on hard courts, and Nadal has battered Sweeting both times. He won by 14 games in a best of 5 match at the Australian Open, and by 8 games in a best of 3 match at Indian Wells.

Sweeting's hard court record is considerably better than his grass court record, and scraping past Andujar in 5 sets in the first round isn't exactly impressive.

[yorkieacermark2000]

Well On my pre wimbledon bets I cant lay Murray off as he has got higher and at the moment i could lay off Berdych @ 70s

Zvonareva has also raised but Bartoli has dropped to lay off at 25

Not good enough going to keep them in.

[edtkh]

Lisicki-Isner: 3.25 @ Hills

Isner is pretty much a gift IMO and is simply way overpriced against Almagro who is totally out of his depth on grass. The reason why his matches at Wimbledon tend to go the distance over the years is simply down to his inability to compete effectively on his returns - up against a big server like Isner, Almagro is in for a tough time. Further throw in the fact he never fails to wobble on his own serve, I struggle to see how Almagro can challenge Isner on returns while holding his own serve effectively in a best-of-5 match.

Lisicki is clearly way overpriced for this one. She has all the qualities you need for a top class grasscourt player. On the other hand, Li Na doesn't - her game is best suited to hardcourts. Looking at how she struggled against Hantuchova at Eastbourne last week, there's no reason for her to start this as favourite beyond her stature and exploits at Roland Garros.


Rochus-Malisse: 5.11 @ Hills

Rochus at 3.25 against Del Potro when leading by a set is quite simply outrageous. Del Potro, like Li Na, is primarily a hardcourt player with strong, powerful baseline ground strokes which suit that surface to a T. On grass, however, he often struggles with much shorter rallies on a seemingly faster bounce. A key reason Rochus tends to punch above his weight every now and then is that he has a game which allows him seize the initiative through accurate and precise shot-making - this aspect of his game compensates for his seeming lack of physique and power very well and works especially well on grass. Del Potro, suffice to say, isn't any better than Marat Safin on grass when the latter was his age. More importantly, the fact there was a break in play will only serve the older Rochus' interest better in terms of having the stamina to last the distance if necessary.

Mayer played a shocker against Evans in the last round and, if anything, it was as much down to Evans' incompetence as much as anything worthy of credit on his end that he got through. Malisse is a totally different animal and I can't really see Mayer threatening Malisse on his service too much on this surface.