Chiefs Tennis Thread 2011.

[Chief77]

Ok gonna start a new thread for this years tennis matches. Last years one went ok and I didn't embarrass myself too much so we'll give it another shot.

First off I'm going to have a bet on the Ljubicic V Brands match that starts in about ten minutes.
Ljubicic is a pretty short 1.42 for the match and is far from certain to win today. Was tempted to take him on but have decided to lay 2-0 @1.91 instead. Last year Ivan was beaten by Lacko in the second round a similarly ranked player to Brands.

Brands has already played 6 games on this indoor surface this year and has won five of them (Lost a small tournament final last week). Ljubo's first match on this surface since October and could take him a while to get back into the swing of things. Brands beat big serving Karlovic in three sets in the first round and served pretty well.

Bet 1:
Lay Ljubicic 2-0 @1.99 - 2 Points
Liability 1.98 Points.

[rcgills]

Good to see you back here again Chief. I popped into your thread over at Letsbet at one stage about halfway through the Aus Open, and reading back over your bets from the first week I could've sworn you'd read my mind on most of them as just about all your bets were ones I'd either taken myself or had at least had on my shortlist before ruling them out.

Was going to post on there but I couldn't remember my password, and was too tired to bother looking for where I've probably written it down.

Anyway, I digress, best of luck for the season

[stidesheaven]

yep, any comments on any tennis tournaments are welcome!

was watching some of the giraldo robredo movistar open final yesterday
the match was a punter's graveyard with both players excelling at times but playing like women for long periods of the match too, with the result that both looked shoe-ins to win at various points of the match only to subsequently do their utmost to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory
both players are talented and have potential but both are too flaky to be challenging for any of the slams anytime soon

[Chief77]

Cheers lads. Forgot to update last few bets here but will put them all in from now on to save confusion.

Anyway gonna back Safarova @1.83 to beat Dokic 2-0. Should be easy pickings for Safarova against a player who hasn't beaten anybody in the top 50 in a long long time. Only slight worry here is that Safarova retired in a Fed Cup game last week. The fact she's taking part here means I'm gonna presume she's ok. Game on now.

2 Points Safarova to win 2-0 @1.83


Winners/Bets: 3/8
Stakes: 16.5 pts
Profit: -1.86 Pts

[Chief77]

1 Point Safarova @3.0. Dokic winning the final set 2-0.
Dokic playing well but I'm hoping she bottles it whilst trying to close it. She hasn't beaten a decent player ina long time.

[Chief77]

Blast you Safarova! Loses 6-4 in the 3rd. Great stuff from Dokic in fairness.
Last bet of the day. Backing Chela @2.34 (2 Points). Currently a set down against Da Silva.

[stidesheaven]

Originally Posted by Chief77

Blast you Safarova! Loses 6-4 in the 3rd. Great stuff from Dokic in fairness.
Last bet of the day. Backing Chela @2.34 (2 Points). Currently a set down against Da Silva.

Chela came through in the end!
Da Silva gave him a good battle

I reckon Raonic and his booming serve should take care of Blake tonight in the SAP Open, probably in two sets
Only slight danger is that Blake could raise his game seeing as he's on home turf but going on form, Raonic should dominate this - he's 2/1 on to win
the 13/10 to win in 2 sets is also worth a (smaller) wager

[Chief77]

Originally Posted by Chief77

[B]2 Points Safarova to win 2-0 @1.83
1 Point Safarova @3.0.
Backing Chela @2.34 (2 Points).

Chela saved a pretty disappointing day with a good comeback. Didn't play great though. may take him on later.
Agree with you re Raonic Stidesheavin. Think he's a very solid 1/2 shot and can't see how a declining Blake can handle that big serve. I expect big things from Raonic this year and I'll be surprised if he's not a top 50 player by the end of the year.



Winners/Bets: 4/10
Stakes: 21.5 pts
Profit: -2.18 Pts

[Chief77]

Really fancy Melzer to beat Cilic today and I'm pleasantly surprised to find he's not favourite. Melzer finished last year very strongly and even beat Nadal on an indoor surface during the Shanghai Masters. In the following tournament in Vienna he won outright beating Kohlschreiber and Almagro en route. Cilic has had an average start to the year but was beaten by Mayer last week. Should be a close match as they generally are between these two but I think the Austrian can edge it.

Verdict:
3 Points on Melzer @2.06

[Chief77]

1 Pt on Niemenin @2.72.

I like Troicki and he's a solid top 30 player but Niemenin on his day is a match for almost anybody outside the top two or three. The Finn had a decent win yesterday against Ferrer and came backfantastically well after being broken in the second set to win four games in a row. These two met in October on an indoor surface and Niemenin won in straight sets so he has nothing to fear here today. Price is just a bit big for me and I'll have a small bet on the Finn.

[Chief77]

4 Pts on Raonic @1.51.
Raonic is a player on the up and I'll be surprised if he isn't top 50 by the end of the year. He has a huge serve and big ground strokes and I can't see how a declining Blake can cope with them. Blake is down to 170 in the world and is seemingly in the twilight of his career. Raonic can follow up a gutsy win over Malisse with a relatively comfortable win over the American.

[Chief77]

Originally Posted by Chief77

Verdict:
3 Points on Melzer @2.06
1 Pt on Niemenin @2.72
4 Pts on Raonic @1.51.

Melzer was very disappointing losing pretty tamely to Cilic in the end. Niemenin played well and lost in a tight match and Raonic won easily.


Winners/Bets: 5/13
Stakes: 29.5 pts
Profit: -4.14 Pts

[Chief77]

4 Points Kvitova @1.45.

1 set all and 1 game all in the 3rd set at the moment but Kvitovas opponent Zhavolova looks wrecked. She put everything into the second set tie break.

[Chief77]

2 Points Istomin to beat Russell @1.76: Can't fancy Russell here as he almost always struggles against top 100 players. He's a gutsy player and never gives up but he has consistently thrown away matches from seemingly winning positions. Istomin is a very patchy player but he should have enough for Russell today.

2 Points Starace @2.56: Not entirely convinced about Dolgopolov on clay and think he's a bit short for this game against the Italian Starace. Starace had a very good win against talented clay courter Cuevas last time out and I think he's more naturally at home on this surface than the Ukrainian. They've met once before on clay back in 09 with Starace winning 6-3 6-0.

3 Points Verdasco @1.56: Verdasco tends to struggle against Karlovic but I think he may have it easier than usual this evening. The big Croat isn't serving too well lately and struggled in his previous match against American Ryan Sweeting. Karlovic has had a poor opening to 2011, losing in the Aussie Open to Dodig and then losing in Zagreb to Brands. Verdasco had a pretty poor 2010 but he can take care of big Ivo here.

[Chief77]

Originally Posted by Chief77

4 Points Kvitova @1.45.
2 Points Istomin to beat Russell @1.76
2 Points Starace @2.56
3 Points Verdasco @1.56

Very lucky with that Kvitova bet. Zhavalova played a great third set and served for the match only to absolutely lose her head over an overrule call by the umpire. She had a match point in the breaker as well. Big sighs of relief when kvitova finally prevailed. Istomin won in straight sets against a typically gutsy Russell, Starace was soundly beaten by Dolgopolov and Verdasco beat Karlovic in two tight sets. Three points profit after all that.





Winners/Bets: 8/17
Stakes: 40.5 pts
Profit: -1.14 Pts