Australian Open 2011

[stidesheaven]

draws have just been released:
Draws - Men's Singles - Australian Open Tennis Championships 2011 - The Grand Slam of Asia/Pacific - Official Site by IBM

in the womens', i was sure clijsters was a shoe-in for this but she was properly pwned by na li in sydney this morning despite being 5-1 and cruising in the first set
still, she's probably the most likely winner, with henin not back to full fitness and wozniacki playing muck of late, zvonareva could well make the final, but don't think she's mentally tough enough yet to win a major
a couple of long shots that could do well are alisa kleybanova who should've beaten clijsters in the semis in sydney, she's about 35/1
dominika cibulkova too is playing well - she's 45/1
greta arn and julia georges are two others who've been playing well lately and could beat one or two better known players

in the mens', i think fed-x is the likely winner, nadal's had a few wobbly performances of late, admittedly not helped by him being ill on and off in recent months
i think fed will take care of djoko if nobody else does before the semis
djoko-troicki in an all serbian 2nd round match could be a cracker
murray has a tough enough draw with nadal potentially waiting in the semis, and soederling, tsonga, melzer, etc all potential opponents before that
i still wouldn't rule him out though, murray playing well could beat any of those, although soederling has been playing very well of late

a dark horse could be david ferrer, he's available at a ridiculous 250/1
although he's traditionally not done well in this tournament, he's in the final of the Heineken Open against Nalbandian, but would have to beat Nalbandian in the second round and Nadal also lies in wait

any thoughts?

[stidesheaven]

ok, i've taken a closer look at the womens' draw

here's my predictions:
Quarter 1: Cibulkova
Quarter 2: Na Li (only danger is that she's tired herself out after Sydney) the winner of the Kanepi/Georges match could be a threat in that case
Sharapova's also in this quarter, but I don't think she's gonna be a threat this year
Quarter 3: Kleybanova/Clijsters
Quarter 4: Zvonareva

[stidesheaven]

and the mens'

Quarter 1: Nalbandian to beat Nadal
Quarter 2: Soederling to beat Melzer/Murray
Quarter 3: Davydenko to beat Djoko
Quarter 4: Fed-x to beat A-rod

[engineer]

Thank you for opening the thread, stide and welcome to TDP. Unfortunately I don't have much time for posting recently, but will try to contribute somehow. I'll be cheering for Grigor Dimitrov who battled his way trough the qualifiers and today demolished high-flying Golubev in the first round. Could be a cracking game next round against Wawrinka (as expected).

In general I could back my favourite recently - Soderling and I also won't be surprised to see Tsonga repeating his great run here.

[stidesheaven]

cheers engineer

my predictions have already come unstuck in the shape of davydenko who again underperformed in a major (despite beating nadal 6-3 6-2 a week ago!)
that said, Mayer is a handy player and could go another couple of rounds...
the rest of my predictions are still holding up though
expect Cibulkova to give wozza a torrid time in their clash, she beat her quite easily in sydney a couple of weeks back and i think she's capable of repeating the feat here in a close 3 setter
Nalbandian is bound to be tired after his epic 5 setter today against hewitt, so i'm not sure if he'll have enough in the tank to beat ferrer and nadal...
Ferrer's odds are still huge....probably cos nadal is lurking in the quarters should he get that far, but at 225/1 (and 16/1 for his quarter), he's definitely worth a nibble
Kleybanova beat her opponent 6-0 6-1 today, good start for her
i also think Baltacha is underrated against Henin....she might not be quite good enough to beat her, but is certainly worth getting with to win over 5.5 games at odds of 11 to 8 on...

[edtkh]

Originally Posted by stidesheaven

cheers engineer

my predictions have already come unstuck in the shape of davydenko who again underperformed in a major (despite beating nadal 6-3 6-2 a week ago!)
that said, Mayer is a handy player and could go another couple of rounds...
the rest of my predictions are still holding up though
expect Cibulkova to give wozza a torrid time in their clash, she beat her quite easily in sydney a couple of weeks back and i think she's capable of repeating the feat here in a close 3 setter

I don't think Wozniacki has flown out of the blocks this year the way she used to as a less established player - perhaps, she hasn't really acquainted herself with the pressures and demands of being world no.1. However, from her performances thus far, she's slowly picking things up. That said, Cibulkova hasn't really impressed me much this year - she's playing nowhere close to the standards that saw her make the SF at Roland Garros last year (I watched her match against Kleybanova where she was totally awful, especially at holding serves). If Wozniacki finds her form in time for Cibulkova, I do expect her to blow Cibulkova away (her petite physique simply doesn't bode well against big hitters generally; when she did well against Wozniacki, it was more through Wozniacki going through a dip in form during those matches).

I am hard-pressed to make a case for Mayer - Davydenko has been piss poor and a very pathetic shadow of his former self (when he was world no.4 and consistently making SF at slams). He's way too erratic and inconsistent to read too much into the strengths and faults of his opponents IMO. Mayer does not really have a hardcourt game and I would personally rate him at 40% against Nishikori (who I'd regard as a slight favourite). Either way, there's virtually no hope in hell of him progressing beyond the third round where he'd most likely meet Verdasco, who is far more athletic and has far superior ground shots to put Mayer out of his depth.

[stidesheaven]

Originally Posted by edtkh

I don't think Wozniacki has flown out of the blocks this year the way she used to as a less established player - perhaps, she hasn't really acquainted herself with the pressures and demands of being world no.1. However, from her performances thus far, she's slowly picking things up. That said, Cibulkova hasn't really impressed me much this year - she's playing nowhere close to the standards that saw her make the SF at Roland Garros last year (I watched her match against Kleybanova where she was totally awful, especially at holding serves). If Wozniacki finds her form in time for Cibulkova, I do expect her to blow Cibulkova away (her petite physique simply doesn't bode well against big hitters generally; when she did well against Wozniacki, it was more through Wozniacki going through a dip in form during those matches). .

Interesting points edtkh
Personally I doubt that Wozniacki will overrun Cilbulkova but yes she is starting to play better now, and indeed she might well prove to strong for the Slovakian
Clijsters on the other hand, is looking very good indeed, from what I've seen so far
Na Li (and perhaps Kleybanova) should all be capable of beating Wozniacki, should she make it that far

[edtkh]

Originally Posted by stidesheaven

Interesting points edtkh
Personally I doubt that Wozniacki will overrun Cilbulkova but yes she is starting to play better now, and indeed she might well prove to strong for the Slovakian
Clijsters on the other hand, is looking very good indeed, from what I've seen so far
Na Li (and perhaps Kleybanova) should all be capable of beating Wozniacki, should she make it that far

Kleybanova is woefully inconsistent and not really outstanding to be honest (her defeat today just proves the point). Rather, it's the way Cibulkova lost to her last week that compounds matters and sums up the kind of run she's having.

I think Wozniacki at 1.20 (at most sportsbooks) to beat Cibulkova is very generous - can't see past a Wozniacki win to be frank. The only question is how tight will the scoreline be - if Woz is totally up for it, she'll do this in under an hour. If she isn't and messes about, this could go to three and look tighter than the difference in class between the two should be.

[edtkh]

That's the best I have seen Cibulkova play over the last 9 months to be honest - even though Wozniacki wasn't in top gear, she still proved too strong for Cibulkova.

The shock of the day for me has got to be Henin's exit - can't believe how toothless she looked...

[InishGael]

Paddy Power offering 5/4 for Murray, Nadal, Clijsters & Zvonareva Accum tonite. Just me or is that good value? Not a Tennis fan but what i've seen, Murray is on form and hasnt even dropped a set yet while Ukranian hes up against has gone through two 5 set games in last 2 rounds while hes also been playing doubles so Murray should be fresh to win this easy enough.
Havent seen Nadal play yet but again, hasnt dropped a set either. Hes up against Ferrer who has come through rounds comfortable enough but Nadal should be too strong here.
Clijsters has been in fantastic form & like Murray, playing someone whos been racking up the games in singles & doubles so the Belgian should be fresh enough to take this.
Riskiest part of Accum is Zvonareva however shes 2nd seed and is up against 25th seed. Dont know much about the Czech shes playing but seeing this bet would be 1/4 without Zvonareva, id say good value here.
Any Tennis experts out there?

[CPFC]

I couldn't trust Zvonareva she's a complete bottle-job imo. Murray, Nadal, and Clijsters should go through with ease.

[InishGael]

Hence 1/4 for those 3 in an accum and jumps to 5/4 when Zvonareva included then. I still fancy acca coming in but dont know eough about Tennis to stick any cash on it.

[rcgills]

Like CPFC, I wouldn't be too keen to trust Zvonareva (and in fact I've backed Kvitova tonight), and while Clijsters is certainly a clear favourite and should win, backing any female tennis player at 1.1 or thereabouts against anyone half-decent is asking for trouble.

Wouldn't expect Murray and Nadal to have too many problems.

[stonecold]

I've just Backed Kvitova as well. Vera just made a good start in the first leg but has such a reputation for falling apart at this stage 3/1 on Kvitova who's impressed me in this years tourney is too good to turn down. A Great bet if Vera does win though

[CPFC]

Kvitova was awful. Still don't think I'd ever trust Zvonereva though, she's stung me far too many times.

Gone for +18.5 games @ 2.00 in the Clijsters match with the view to maybe trade if the first set is tight.