Australian Open 2011

[CPFC]

Originally Posted by CPFC

Gone for +18.5 games @ 2.00 in the Clijsters match with the view to maybe trade if the first set is tight.

win

[engineer]

I'll get involved today as I can see Ferrer giving Nadal a run for his money. This game reminds me of the semi from 2009 between Nadal and Verdasco and we could have another thriller here. The price for Ferrer represents a great value and I won't miss it - at least it should be much closer than the odds suggest.
Unfortunately I can't use my BF account for Australian events, but I'll stick to bet 365 for this one.

Ferrer to win @7.5 - 3 pts

Number of sets - over 3.5 @2.25 - 3 pts

Nadal to win 3-2 @8 - 2 pts

Ferrer + 7 games @2.1 - 7 pts

Over 35 games @2 - 5 pts

[rcgills]

I hope you're right, Engineer, as I've got a small bet on Ferrer in the outright market, but I really can't see it. I think most of the Spanish players seem to have mental problems when it comes to playing Nadal, they virtually consider themselves beaten before they even get on court with him, much the same as Wawrinka when he plays Federer. Fingers crossed for a close match, but I can see Nadal winning it in straight sets.

[rcgills]

Nice one Engineer Was worried for you there that Nadal was going to retire injured, to be honest I think he should have done, which would have voided your bets, but he played on until the end.

[engineer]

Cheers, RC, only a small profit as Ferrer finished it too quickly but I guess I should be satisfied with the way things went.

[engineer]

And your outright bet looks well at the moment - Ferrer is performing rock solid and I won't be surprised to see Murray defeated on Friday

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by engineer

Cheers, RC, only a small profit as Ferrer finished it too quickly but I guess I should be satisfied with the way things went.

Don't know about that, 17.2pts profit from 20pts staked doesn't look too bad to me.

[nickyc]

Originally Posted by rcgills

Don't know about that, 17.2pts profit from 20pts staked doesn't look too bad to me.

could you explain the pts you mention please? obviously its point but not sure what they equal or are used for

[rcgills]

Welcome to TDP Nickyc

Points are just a way of indicating how confident you are in a bet, without mentioning your actual stakes. Different people bet different amounts, some only bet a few pounds for a bit of fun, others take it much more seriously and bet hundreds or thousands of pounds, so if a poster mentions that they've bet £10 on a match, there's no way of knowing how much that means to them, it might be a lot of money to them and mean they're really confident in the bet, or it might be small change and mean it's just a throwaway bet.

Just think of it as a scale of confidence in the bet, from 1 - 10.

[edtkh]

Originally Posted by engineer

And your outright bet looks well at the moment - Ferrer is performing rock solid and I won't be surprised to see Murray defeated on Friday

I will call you out on this one, engineer.

Ferrer hasn't got a hope in hell of nicking this one unless Murray picks up a wrist injury that forces him to play this match with his left hand .

I used to say Henman was pants when tonnes of silly Brits thought he was God (so much for being British number 1 and World number 4). Equally, I have been championing the cause of Murray since he broke through the ranks - in his early days, his physical and mental fitness were issues he struggled with. Very clearly, associating himself with Darren Cahill was the best thing that ever happened to Murray and he has clearly gone on to prove his worth and fulfill much of his early potential.

When Murray's on top of his game, he's virtually unbeatable on hardcourts (bar playing Federer at his peak from 2004-2007 ) and that's what he's done throughout this tournament. With the exception of dropping the set to Dolgopolov (who, incidentally, is another big server with a solid return), he's been completely first class throughout this fortnight.

The same obviously cannot be said about Ferrer - discounting his triumph over an injured Nadal aside, Berankis and Russell hardly provide any sort of a decent test at a Grand Slam. In truth, he was woeful against Raonic - Raonic wasn't brilliant, he merely choked and couldn't cope with the pressure after going ahead. To be fair, I think Ferrer has dispatched his mediocre opponents fairly well (bar his match against Raonic) but Murray is clearly streets ahead any of the opponents (including a limping Nadal) he has come across thus far.

Without a big serve and often struggling with big serves on the other end, I honestly don't see Ferrer coming anywhere close to threatening Murray on any surface bar clay (it's altogether a different story on clay, but that's a story for another day).

The pair just met at the end of last year in London when Murray demolished Ferrer 6-2, 6-2. While I don't expect another defeat as heavy as this, I'd still fancy Murray to nick this with a break in each set.

Taking a fair bit on Murray -5.5 and a wee dabble on Murray -7.5 myself.

[engineer]

Nice explanation on the points, RC

To be more precise 1 pt for me means 6 euro now (varies trough time). It's 6 USD when I bet at bet365.

OK, ed, I'll stick to my point and hoping for a tough game for Murray:

Ferrer @4.33 - 2 pts

Murray to win 3-2 @6.5 - 2 pts

Ferrer to win 1st set and lose match @5.5 - 1 pt

Ferrer + 6 games @2.1 - 7 pts
Tie Murray - 6 games @7.5 - 1.5 pts

[engineer]

Originally Posted by engineer

Ferrer @4.33 - 2 pts

Murray to win 3-2 @6.5 - 2 pts

Ferrer to win 1st set and lose match @5.5 - 1 pt

Ferrer + 6 games @2.1 - 7 pts

Tie Murray - 6 games @7.5 - 1.5 pts

Some profit again, pity Ferrer lost these tiebreaks. The final should be a cracker.

[edtkh]

Originally Posted by engineer

Some profit again, pity Ferrer lost these tiebreaks. The final should be a cracker.

Murray was piss poor on his serves tonight and I am truly amazed he managed to pull through in four.

I found it a shame Ferrer did not have more weapons in his arsenal as Murray was clearly there for the taking for someone a little more technically gifted - the irony of it all was, Murray pretty much dictated the match throughout (when he stepped up a gear, Ferrer was left nowhere in sight; when his string of unforced errors came up - including three immediate breaks of service right after breaking Ferrer - Ferrer was right back in it).

In short, Murray was totally crap - by his standards - tonight and if he repeats this (or show any semblance of his sleepwalking tendencies in the first set), Djokovic will piss all over him on Sunday - and that's before considering he spent 4 hours on court tonight and having one fewer day's rest.

[edtkh]

Clijsters should win the women's singles without too much hassle tonight.

While I think Li Na has been massively impressive over the last fortnight, Clijsters is essentially her first - also the only one that stands between her and the beckoning of destiny - real test that could derail what has otherwise been a perfect start to the year.

While it has been widely reported that despite Clijsters leading Li Na 4-2 on the all-time h2h records, Li Na actually holds the upperhand having won 2 of their last 3 meetings including the recent encounter in Sydney just a fortnight ago. Personally, none of these records prior to 2009 matter too much really as 2007 seems a lifetime ago.

What is of interest to me, however, is the fact that Clijsters actually lost to Li Na in Sydney after leading 5-0 in the first set. Clearly, Clijsters does have a tendency of getting ahead of herself with her free-flowing and rapid game where she just rushes from point to point especially when she is ahead. She has shown signs of that at times during this tournament as well, not least against Cornet and Makarova.

The key difference is, I think that defeat to Li Na will actually do her a world of good as she shouldn't have too much trouble being reminded of how getting carried away could actually derail all the good work she has done so far. More importantly, considering this is Li Na's first Grand Slam final and their last Grand Slam meeting in the 2009 US Open was a straightforward 6-2, 6-4 win for Clijsters, nerves could play a part for Li once again as she bids to find her feet in a similar fashion to the way she started so tentatively against Wozniacki.

Clijsters should just have too much for the Chinese and would regard Clijsters at -2.5 is a massive value bet.