US OPEN 2010

[engineer]

Starts tomorrow, looking more competitive than ever

I'll be on holiday (again) during the next two weeks, but will try to contribute here, hope for many inputs and profitable tourney.

[edtkh]

I will get the ball rolling with a gutsy 8-fold acca:

5pts @ 9.65
Davydenko
Cilic
Mello
Martic
Dementieva
Andreev
Pavlyuchenkova
Monfils

A couple of these are pretty straightforward and self-explanatory. Just elaborating a little on Mello, Martic and Andreev.

Mello's record isn't great and nothing much to shout about - however, at 1.61, I feel he's overpriced against an even worse opponent who clearly doesn't belong anywhere outside the Challengers. Incidentally, Phau's best run this season has oftentimes come on clay - expect Mello to take this in 4 at worst.

For a long time, I have never been able to bring myself to back anything british when it comes to tennis (in many respects, british tennis is akin to English football at international tournaments - woeful). With the exception of Murray, that still pretty much holds true. When a nation with the population size of 62 million boast of Keothavong and Baltacha as the best female tennis players in the country, you know you've a problem. Martic is no mug, and clearly should start this as a bigger favourite than a 50-50 shot. On any other surface, I'd still have backed Martic at 50-50 odds; on hardcourts (arguably Martic's best and hardly the best for Baltacha), it sounds even more ludicrous to price Martic at those odds.

Andreev is a bit of an interesting conumdrum and potentially the one upstart that could do me in for this acca. All said and done, I'd still back him to see off Zeballos. Quite simply, Zeballos is a woeful player on this surface and wouldn't come anywhere close to touching the top 50 players if they were in top form. The biggest threat to Andreev comes not from Zeballos, but the Russian himself - so long as he continues to play consistently and doesn't self-implode, he'll clearly walk all over Zeballos. That said, it wouldn't surprise me if the Russian dropped a set (or possibly two) as he has a knack of making life hard for himself. All said and done, notwithstanding any inconsistency that may creep in, I believe his class will still shine through in a best of 5 matches as he has got a decent all-court pedigree - good enough for a very mediocre Zeballos anyway. For those who are unaware, Andreev remains one of only 4 players - the others being Federer, Ferrero and Soderling - to have beaten Nadal on clay in the last 6 years.

Cheers & Good Luck!

Starting Bank: 100.00pts
Current Bank: 100.00pts
Profit/Loss: 0.00pts

[css1986]

Martic lost 2-0

[7HEGR1MR3AP3R]

[edtkh]

Not a great day for Martic, unfortunately. Nice try at some dry and senseless humour though...

10pts on 5-fold acca @ 3.04 (Ladbrokes)
Baghdatis
Jankovic
Li Na
Djokovic
Monaco

Djokovic, for all his tendency of making hard work of matches in the early rounds of Slams, should prove too strong for Troicki. Baghdatis, Jankovic, Li Na too should prove too strong for their respective opponents although Jankovic, very much like Djokovic (probably a Serbian trait), does have a knack of making their victories less comfortable than they should be.

Monaco is very generously priced for this one IMO as Polansky hasn't really done much on tour this year. A couple of decent runs on the Challengers and a wild card at Toronto can't do much to bridge the gulf in class. Monaco may be a bit of a claycourt specialist, but his hardcourt game has come on a fair bit over the last few years. He should have too much for the Canadian.


10pts on 3-fold acca @ 3.42 (Ladbrokes)
Stepanek
Sharapova
Nieminen
Nadal

Sharapova and Nadal are pretty straightforward and just stuff to beef up the acca.

Nieminen has had a pretty rough patch over the last year or two, but there's no taking away his strengths on the hardcourts where he's always seemed to do well against Tier 2 opponents - Gimeno-Traver clearly doesn't belong in the same league and would need to catch Nieminen on an off-day to stand any chance.

I think it's ridiculous for Benneteau to start as the favourite against Stepanek. Granted, Stepanek has had his own troubles with form and fitness this year, but there's no denying Stepanek's pedigree having been a consistent performer over the last couple of years. Incidentally, Stepanek has won both previous encounters with Benneteau on hardcourt without having dropped a set in the process. Certainly worth a shot at the price.

Cheers & Good Luck!

Starting Bank: 100.00pts
Current Bank: 95.00pts
Profit/Loss: -5.00pts

[edtkh]

Terrible display from Baghdatis there. Enjoy the US Open, folks.

Will be back next week after my vacation...

[stidesheaven]

no action on here of late but here's a few thoughts on the women's matches coming up:

Kanepi should beat Wickmayer today, could well even do it in 2 sets - she's 8/13 on to win
Schiavone definitely has a chance against Venus despite being 0-7 in their head to heads
Schiavone +4.5 games is 4/6, definitely worth taking

Lastly I've been backing Wozza all along and I'm not changing now, she's 5/6 to beat Sharapova today and I'm having me a piece of that!

all prices above from PP

[stidesheaven]

Originally Posted by stidesheaven

no action on here of late but here's a few thoughts on the women's matches coming up:

Kanepi should beat Wickmayer today, could well even do it in 2 sets - she's 8/13 on to win
Schiavone definitely has a chance against Venus despite being 0-7 in their head to heads
Schiavone +4.5 games is 4/6, definitely worth taking

Lastly I've been backing Wozza all along and I'm not changing now, she's 5/6 to beat Sharapova today and I'm having me a piece of that!

all prices above from PP

all three bets came in
although a few others i didn't post here, tanked!!
my a/c's empty now, so gonna wait til it tops up before making any more predictions!

[edtkh]

30pts on double @ 1.80 (Ladbrokes)
Wozniacki
Clijsters

This year's women's final should be nothing more than a re-run of last year's encounter and there should be little in the way of both these women in the SFs.

Zvonareva has come on a fair bit in recent times and proven a lot more consistent than what she used to be. All said and done, she still continues to struggle against many of the big hitters (as demonstrated in the Wimbledon final against Serena) and could have easily come unstuck if Kanepi had kept her nerves. Wozniacki is quite simply a step up from any of her previous opponents in this tournament and I just don't see how she can live with that.

Venus has been riding her luck somewhat en route to the SF. Thought her match against Schiavone was rather fortuitous and it was a much closer affair than her scoreline would suggest. As a matter of fact, she stends to struggle against players who could rally with her and get the ball back a fair bit - Clijsters is certainly well capable of doing that. Only concern here is Clijsters' consistency as she has shown she has the capacity to self-destruct from time to time as was the case when she went 4-0 down in the 2nd set against Greta Arn after taking the first set 6-0 and during her 2nd set against Stosur. If she could get that sorted, she should sort this out rather easily.


Cheers & Good Luck!

Starting Bank: 100.00pts
Current Bank: 75.00pts
Profit/Loss: -25.00pts

[edtkh]

Not the best of SF's with Wozniacki bottling it once more.

20pts @ (3.67 @ Ladbrokes)
Federer-Djokovic Under 39.5 Games
Clijsters 2-0

Federer-Djokovic doesn't have the makings of a classic IMO as both players have been scrapping by for large chunks in this tournament. While Federer has impressed by not having dropped a set thus far, there're far too many close sets to suggest he'd walk away with this one. All said and done, I'd still expect Federer to do this in 4 sets at most and can't really see this one going 40 games to be honest.

Clijsters has wobbled at times (against Arn, Stosur and Williams), but she'd somehow come up with the goods when it really matters. While Zvonareva played her best match I've ever seen her play in dispatching Wozniacki from the SF, the Dane was hardly the most consistent player in that match and still shows she has quite a bit of work to do before she'd win her first Slam. Clijsters, on the other hand, is a seasoned campaigner and should have too much experience - especially given this is a final - for Zvonareva (she didn't turn up at the Wimbledon final; I'm not expecting her to turn up today either).

Cheers & Good Luck!

Starting Bank: 100.00pts
Current Bank: 45.00pts
Profit/Loss: -55.00pts

[bauer5152]

Originally Posted by edtkh

30pts on double @ 1.80 (Ladbrokes)
Wozniacki
Clijsters

This year's women's final should be nothing more than a re-run of last year's encounter and there should be little in the way of both these women in the SFs.

Zvonareva has come on a fair bit in recent times and proven a lot more consistent than what she used to be. All said and done, she still continues to struggle against many of the big hitters (as demonstrated in the Wimbledon final against Serena) and could have easily come unstuck if Kanepi had kept her nerves. Wozniacki is quite simply a step up from any of her previous opponents in this tournament and I just don't see how she can live with that.

Venus has been riding her luck somewhat en route to the SF. Thought her match against Schiavone was rather fortuitous and it was a much closer affair than her scoreline would suggest. As a matter of fact, she stends to struggle against players who could rally with her and get the ball back a fair bit - Clijsters is certainly well capable of doing that. Only concern here is Clijsters' consistency as she has shown she has the capacity to self-destruct from time to time as was the case when she went 4-0 down in the 2nd set against Greta Arn after taking the first set 6-0 and during her 2nd set against Stosur. If she could get that sorted, she should sort this out rather easily.


Cheers & Good Luck!

Starting Bank: 100.00pts
Current Bank: 75.00pts
Profit/Loss: -25.00pts

Thanks you for the post.
__________________

[slick]

And thank you for the spammy link which was nipped in the bud.

[spikerg]

How long do you think Djokovic stay at his current place #1? I bet he will get down within 6 months and not able rechallenging it back. Why? He doesn't seem confident against federer and Nadal. He grew strong when the support is there but weak when he made 3 consecutive mistakes.

[engineer]

US open 2010 is the best thread for such question, spik, I can't disagree