WIMBLEDON 2010

[edtkh]

Djokovic -2.5 Games
Nadal -2.5 Games
Double @ 3.85

Not had much time to dabble on tennis lately with the world cup going on, but think the men's SF's are pretty straightforward.

Djokovic holds a 2-0 h2h lead over Berdych (albeit both on hardcourts) and Djokovic has been the far more consistent player in this tournament (his only wobble was the 5-setter against Rochus in the first round). For all the hype about Berdych, I think he's horrendously overhyped and over-rated after his Federer win (let's face it, I'd fancy even my dog to give Federer a run these days and Fed is a very pale shadow of his former self). If anything, I think Berdych being pushed the distance by Istomin and dropping a set to Daniel Brands would suggest he isn't exactly quite ready to build on his Federer win.

While Nadal hasn't exactly been overwhemlimgly convincing in his early rounds, he seems to have sorted out his form somewhat since the Petzschner match. More importantly, you could always count on his grit to grind out matches when the going gets tough - and he's streets ahead of Murray in that regard. Murray has had a relatively easy run all the way till now (and it was Tsonga - typical French behaviour - who capitulated more than anything) and I fully expect him to face a stern test against Nadal. On the back of the performances he has served up till date, he hasn't got a hope in hell of beating Nadal unless Nadal plays like the way he did against Petzschner, which I really can't see happening. Nadal's one of those who seems to up his game in the latter stages of a tournament...

[engineer]

Originally Posted by engineer

Melzer/Petzschner to beat Moodie/Norman @2 - 5 pts

Tursunov/Dushevina to beat Dlouhy/Benesova @2.46 - 2 pts

Melo/Stubbs to beat Klijsters/Mallisse @2.94 - 7 pts

Chela/Shwank to beat Linstedt/Tecau @2.84 - 5 pts

Moodie/Raymond to beat Knowle/Shvedova @1.78 - 6 pts

Decent profit from the doubles...

Today I reckon it's the best chance for Berdych to make his first ever Grand Slam final appearance. Nothing could make me lean towards Djokovic and I'm glad the price for the Czech drifted and he's now odds against.

Berdych @2.06 - 6 pts
Djokovic to win 3-2 @6.6 - 3 pts
Berdych to win 3-2 @7 - 2.5 pts

[edtkh]

Can't find anything of interest for me personally for today's final as the prices are somewhat unrealistic or the markets just don't offer a fair deal for some of the more outrageous proposition.

In short, I expect Serena Williams to walk this one and 1.14-1.20 is clearly way too low for a woman's Grand Slam final. Decided to take a chance and stick a wee bet on the Under 20.5 Games market instead - this should really be settled in two.

[engineer]

Nice call on the final, ed

[engineer]

I'll take a chance on the mens doubles final

Lindstedt/Tecau to beat Melzer/Petzschner @2.42 - 5 pts

[edtkh]

Originally Posted by engineer

Nice call on the final, ed

Cheers, mate. Caught the final? How was it?

I was out catching the Germany-Argentina match...

[Betfly]

out of interest what price was under 20.5 games?

[edtkh]

Originally Posted by Betfly

out of interest what price was under 20.5 games?

1.90

[edtkh]

10pts on Nadal -4.5 Games (2.08 @ Betfair)
5pts on Nadal -6.5 Games (3.00 @ Ladbrokes)

Truth be told, Nadal did not start off Wimbledon too convincingly and certainly looked to be on the ropes at one point against Petzschner, but I thought his matches against Haase and Petzschner could actually prove the catalyst for him to go the full distance today.

As has often been said, the hallmark of great players (or teams in any sport for that matter) are their ability to grind out results even when they aren't at their best and Nadal has clearly been back to his best starting with the win over Mathieu. I thought the sheer grit and class displayed in demolishing Murray (in particular, the way he fought back from set points down in Set 2 and coming back from a break down to break twice in Set 3) was a sight to behold.

Take nothing away from Berdych for making this far, but without trying to play down his achievements, he's hardly had the toughest tests his opponents could have provided. With the sole exception of his win over Melzer, Federer was piss poor all tournament and clearly has issues with his motivation. Djokovic never really got into the game (credit to Berdych's powerful serves), but I don't think Djokovic has really done himself or his rankings justice - it was typically one of those days where, as soon as the match got under way, he was always going to struggle.

Unfortunately for Berdych, I can't see Nadal rolling over here as easily as Djokovic or Federer had done - one thing's certain with Nadal: even if you're going to walk all over him, he's not going to go down without a fight. With that in mind (and his superior pedigree), you always feel you get a better run for your money on the handicaps as his hunger always helps enhance the chances of him overcoming the lines in addition to his ability.

On paper, if this had been a third/fourth round clash, I could very easily see a 7.5/8.5 game handicap and Nadal would probably be walking this. Throw in the occasion, the superb form Berdych is in (when it really has been a case of his scalps having been pants as much as Berdych has been brilliant) and the burning desire Nadal has to recapture Wimbledon, I would be very very surprised if Nadal doesn't clear this by 4.5 games. Also taken a larger handicap of 6.5 games as I don't see Nadal taking this beyond 4 sets at worst (should this go to 4, I would still expect at least a double break in one of his three winning sets).

[Gavster]

Like you I have no idea how to call this match. Berdych has beaten Nadal a handful of times, albeit on a different surface.

Given the intensity of the play, I don't see it going 5 sets. The pace and length on some games will surely produce a winner in 4 sets. I think it's with worth a little punt on 3-1 for each player, but more weighted toward Nadal.

Nadal 3-1, 3.75 @ sporting bet

Berdych 3-1, 9.0 @ bet365

[engineer]

I'll somewhat oppose you guys in your bets.

I fancy Berdych's chances more and more and I can't understand people making Nadal such huge fav today. The Czech is the type of player Nadal has most difficulties with. Big serves, big strokes and this time he shows he could do it consistently. I really expect a victory for Berdych today. Of course he could return to his old patterns and everything go tits up, but after all I can afford this bet at the end of Wimbledon 2010. Still, I really expect an upset here and thigs could even become ugly for Rafa as Berdych is capable to break his defence, especially on grass (well, what's left of it).

Berdych @3.75 10 pts

Berdych to win 3-0 @16.5 -2 pts

Tie break played - NO @3 - 5 pts

And just the usual cover bet - Nadal to win 3-2 @7.2 - 3 pts

[edtkh]

Pretty decent final, but thought the sense of occasion just got to Berdych at the critical moments (thrice broken when serving to stay in each of the three sets although he was already down a break in the first).

Nadal a deserved winner nonetheless...

[engineer]

Yes, a decent match, but I expected much from Berdych. Still, my loss was minimized to 5 pts due to the fact there was not a tiebreak.
Congratulation to all Nadal backers and fans