Wimbledon 2009 Betting

[engineer]

Originally Posted by Martens

Tsonga outright winner?
hahaha...i left this room for almost a year now, and i see you didnt grow up lol
joke this one was-

And I see you haven't changed at all which is good as we need some good laugh here

Probably when Tsonga faces Federrer at the 1/4 final you'll come and say that you would put a truckload of money on the French

Or alternatively you could stake your 2k on Golubev today @14/1 - not a bad offer, eh?

[engineer]

OK, at the outright betting I could go and oppose Federrer as I don't think he should be odds-on favorite this year. Tricky opponents (beatable of course) at the first rounds, then probably Tsonga at the quarters, Djokovic or Haas at the semi and most probably Murray at the final - I reckon Fed could be vulnerable against all of these.
I'll be back after lunch with today's bets.

[Bishop of Southport]

I can't help but think that there is a little bit of value in Viktoriya Kutozova to beat Maria Sharapova today at 8/1 with Bet 365. I watched Kutuzova in the final round of qualifying at Roehampton and if she is on top of her game she has got the shots to trouble the former champion. We all know that Sharapova will battle all the way but if ever there was a time she was vulnerable to an upset, I would say it was now with her recent injury problems against a hungry youngster looking to prove herself. This bet is probably only one for the brave but I cannot see this being a walk in the park and Kutuzova may run Sharapova closer than the odds suggest.

[edtkh]

Originally Posted by engineer

OK, at the outright betting I could go and oppose Federrer as I don't think he should be odds-on favorite this year. Tricky opponents (beatable of course) at the first rounds, then probably Tsonga at the quarters, Djokovic or Haas at the semi and most probably Murray at the final - I reckon Fed could be vulnerable against all of these.
I'll be back after lunch with today's bets.

I have got to disagree with your assessment here. You wouldn't want to underestimate the power of good winning the French Open would do to Federer's confidence.

Let's not kid ourselves - Djokovic was piss poor at Halle (he has looked out of sorts since the Madrid SF against Nadal; even then, Nadal wasn't on top of his game) by his standards and I am certainly not buying the stuff that Haas played on top of his game in the final. Haas is one of those blokes who's good for a laugh when he's playing the top guys - he is mentally very very suspect and you can't help but feel that has pretty much deterred him from winning a Slam (talking about a prevailing trend that dates back to the pre-Federer era).

In short, without Nadal in sight, I don't see anyone troubling Federer here although that could prove disastrous for punters who expect Federer to stroll through every match as he has demonstrated an uncanny ability to lull into a sense of complacency and drop an odd silly set or two.

Got to expect Federer to take this year's Wimbledon at a canter and given his pedigree, the odds are a little over-generous (especially if you consider he was trading in the 1.20's to win the tourny a couple of years ago)...

[engineer]

Thanks for the info, Bishop , a kind of bet I do like...

I get your point, ed, of course I'm not saying Fed won't win this year but I won't be surprised by an upset. And if he makes the final and his opponent happens to be Murray it will be a hell of match for Roger. But it's too early, let's all see what will happen.

[engineer]

OK, here are my bets for today:

Men:

Santoro to beat Kiefer @3.1 - 1.5 pts

Lay Soderling 3-0 against Muller @1.94 - to win 9 pts

Koubek to beat R. Vasselin @3.4 - 2 pts

Darcis to beat Dancevic @2.48 - 3pts

Lacko to beat Karlovic @6.8 - 1.5 pts
Lay Karlovic 3-0 @1.97 - to win 8 pts

Lay Llodra 3-0 against Goodall @2.14 - to win 8 pts

[engineer]

Ladies:

Groenefeld to beat Mirza @2.66 - 3 pts

Kutuzova to beat Sharapova @11 - 1 pt

Sprem to beat Kulikova @2.2 - 5 pts

Rybarikova to beat Vinci @1.5 - 6pts

Groth to beat Safarova @2.12 - 4 pts

Cornet to beat Dushevina @2.58 - 4 pts

[engineer]

And two more from the men:

Serra to beat Kohlschreiber @4.8 - 2 pts

Monaco to beat Almagro @2.2 - 3 pts

[rcgills]

Roger Vasselin/Hewitt/Tsonga/Hantuchova/Tanasugarn @ 1.9 2.5pts

Hewitt at Wimbledon should have way too much for Ginepri, can't see Tsonga having any problems. Despite all the hype over Laura Robson, she's a talented youngster but she's not at this level yet, Hantuchova should be able to see her off. Tanasugarn is in excellent form on grass after winning at s'Hertogenbosch. Roger Vasselin is up against Koubek, grass has never been Koubek's favourite surface, he's only won 4 matches in 11 attempts at Wimbledon, while Roger Vasselin has a decent record here, coming through qualifying to make the 3rd round in 2007, before losing to Gasquet, coming through qualifying in 2008 but then getting a tough 1st round draw in Cilic, and again coming through qualifying pretty comfortably this year, dropping just one set.

Roger Vasselin 3-0 v Koubek @ 2.62 1pt

See above

Gregorc v Robredo @ 6.5 0.5pts

Robredo's grass court record is OK, but nothing special, and he's certainly one of the more vulnerable seeds on grass. Gregorc came through qualifying for the loss of just one set, and he'll surely fancy his chances of an upset here.

Baczinszky v Manasieva @ 2.2 2pts

Neither player with much pedigree on grass, neither in the best of form, looks pretty much a 50-50 clash to me and on that basis the value looks to be with the underdog.

Benneteau v Djokovic over 0.5 tiebreaks (Paddy Power) @ 2.2 2pts

Can't see Benneteau troubling Djokovic overall, but reckon he's capable of keeping things tight for a set or 2.

[edtkh]

Just what on earth is Hantuchova that cnut playing at? It's stupefying watching her antics...

[Toadface]

Anyone watching the Lopez match?, just gone 2-1 down in sets!!

Come on Lopez!!!

[astaloy]

Thanks engineerfor some good ideas today, was on Muller and Goodall with +2,5 sets handicap

[Fixking]

Hanescu - Navarro
Tip:1 odd 1.75

I think the bookmakers is giving to much credit to Navarro after he reached the semifinals on Hertogenbosch last week .He defeated Ferrer in quarterfinals, a big surprise but Ferrer lost the match on his hands.He played awful and made many unforced mistakes .Before this semifinal he played and lost in the first round in Queen's against bulgarian new star, Dimitrov.
On the other hand Hanescu played only on Halle and lost in the first round against Becker. This is his best year reaching no 29 Atp for the first time.Despite his serve he also have shoot accuracy and he moves pretty good on the field.
Navarro is totally based on his service and if Hanescu will find a way to brake it he will win easy. I'll try also -2.5 set handica

[rcgills]

Welcome to TDP, Fixking

My bets for today:

Parmentier v Amanmuradova @ evens 2.5pts

Can't see why Amanmuradova should be favourite here. Neither player in great form, and neither of them with much of a record on grass, but they met in the 1st round here last year, and Parmentier took it in straight sets.

Ferrero v Youzhny @ 2.3 2.5pts

Two decent players on grass, both had a good run at Queens this year, looks pretty much 50/50 to me so I'll go with Ferrero as the underdog.

Mattek v Stosur @ 5.5 0.5pts

Sure, Stosur is the favourite here, she's been in great form lately, but I don't see her as this big a favourite. Mattek had an excellent grass season last year, making the semis at Birmingham (beating Tanasugarn and Vaidisova along the way) and beating Bartoli on her way to the 4th round at Wimbledon. Stosur's record at Wimbledon is poor, only 3 wins in the last 6 years.

Hewitt/Istomin/Safin @ 1.94 3pts

I never learn. One of those will let me down. Don't know which one, just lay all 3 of them and at those prices you'll make a profit

Sevastova v K Bondarenko @ 2.75 1pt

Promising youngster rising up the rankings, came through qualifying comfortably enough. See no reason why she shouldn't be capable of causing an upset in this one.

Dubois v Errani @ 2.62 1pt

Two players with terrible grass court records - Errani 1-5, Dubois 0-8. Errani's gone out first round in 7 of her last 8 tournaments. Dubois has lost 7 of her last 10 matches. Basically it looks like it could be anyone's game.

Domachowska v Medina Garrigues @ 4 1.5pts

Domachowska has won the last 2 meetings between them, including the only meeting on grass in 2006. Has gone sliding down the rankings since then, but grass certainly isn't Garrigues' favourite surface, and Domachowska looks far too big a price here IMO.

[engineer]

Welcome to TDP, astaloy and fixking.

Agree with fix about Hanescu, Navarro is really a strange player, suited to the grass but the Romanian has better class IMO. Well, his price is a bit short for my likings but could have a bet on Hanescu in-running if the Spaniard puts his nose infront.

About the Dimitrov v Kunitsyn game - obviously people are piling on the young Bulgarian and his price shortened to 1.6-1.7 in the morning. Now a small drift - 1.73 at BF. OK, Dimitrov could be a great player, indeed. He won last year's junior Wimbledon in style and he really likes the grass. At queen's his performance was also decent. But today's opponent is very tricky - a competent grass courter with more experience (altough a real shite at grand slams). Anyway, my opinion is that the Russian should be a 1.7-1.8 favourite in this game. If the match goes long in time Grigor will probably find it hard to handle the pressure. OK, I'm not saying he's without chances, but for me Kunitsyn looks the pick in this match.
Still, I'll be all for Dimitrov and I'll be extremely happy if I lose this small bet...
Kunitsyn @2.36 - 2 pts