Wimbledon 2009 Betting

[rioma]

Super big lost yesterday, hope to win some back today !!!!

One huge bet decided and locked so far on the sisters' match:

1st set o9.5 @ 1.73

Others that I am leaning will be (but not yet decided):

Venus win @ 1.62
Total over 22.5 games @ 1.85

Any thoughts ????

[rioma]

Also on the doubles:

I am leaning on Bob & Mike win @ 1.45 and 1 st set over 10 @ 1.8

All comments are appreciated ^^

[rioma]

My early thoughts today:

Federer under 38.50 games @ 1.87

Federer 1 st and 2nd set over 10 games @ 1.81

Federer with most Aces @ 1.73

Last day for Wimbly, common guys, gimme ur thoughts ^^

[stereoman]

Federer vs. Roddick H2H record

Most Aces: Federer 4/5 (Betfred/Coral's), Roddick 11/10 (Boylesports)

It depends what Roddick will turn up but I think the value is with Roddick especially if he 'turns up'. Andy will have to 'turn it up' on the aces like he did last year in Canada if he's to have a chance but like Venus yesterday Roger hasn't been 'challenged' much in the tournament so far (well Philipp Kohlschreiber's the only one to take a set off Roger so far!) so there's room for complacency on Federer's behalf (especially with the weight of history on Roger as he chases Pete Sampras' record).

Last 10 H2H's is 9-1 in Federer's favour.

I want Federer to win but 8/1 on is only for the big hitters. General opinion appears to be that Federer will win 3-1. I don't care as long as Roger wins.

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by rioma

Federer with most Aces @ 1.73

Originally Posted by stereoman

It depends what Roddick will turn up but I think the value is with Roddick especially if he 'turns up'.

Going by the stats, I'd say the value lies with Federer. 20 past meeting between these two, and Federer has served most aces in 14 of them, Roddick in 3, and 3 ties.

Have gone with under 34.5 aces at 2.1 (Paddy Power). In the 20 past meetings, there have never been more than 29 aces. Admittedly quite a few of those matches were best of 3 sets rather than best of 5, but 13 of them involved 3 sets or more, and I suspect this one may be over in 3 sets too, and have taken Federer 3-0 @ 1.9. Would like to see Roddick win this one, or even make a decent contest of it, but these two know each other inside out, and Federer has well and truly got the measure of Roddick, 18 wins in 20 meetings, and 12 of them in straight sets, including 5 of the 7 Grand Slam meetings and 2 of the 3 Wimbledon meetings.

Final bet is Federer to get the 1st break in the 1st set @ 1.65 (Sporting Odds). Federer has been invincible on serve in the last three rounds, facing just 2 BPs (both against Soderling, both saved), no BPs against him at all in the quarter or semi finals. Roddick has looked more vulnerable, Murray forced 7 BPs in their semi, although he won just 2 of them. The main danger to this bet for me is the possibility of it going with serve all the way through to a tie-break, but I'm confident Federer can nick a break before then.

Under 34.5 aces @ 2.1 2pts
Federer 3-0 @ 1.9 3pts
Federer first break in 1st set @ 1.65 2.5pts

[rioma]

Decided and locked for today's tennis:


Total double faults over 4.5 @ 1.85

1st set over 10 @ 1.77

2nd set over 10 @ 1.81

Total aces under 35.5 @ 1.74

That's all folks, would love to hear your comments !!!!

[stereoman]

Not enjoying this at all as I want Federer to win this. Thought Roddick more-or-less had this in the bag and shoved some money on him at 7/4 as a cover bet as he was getting close to being 2-0 up in sets.

5-5 in the 3rd set and it's 20-16 to Federer in regards aces.

[stereoman]

Federer may be 2-1 up in sets but I'm not happy as Roddick's broken Federer's serve for the second time in the match to go 3-1 up in the 4th set (Federer STILL hasn't broken Roddick's serve!).

[stereoman]

This is tough. I don't care who wins now (I'M LYING!). It's not a classic. It's a war of attrition. Federer's more-or-less faced a brick wall and STILL hasn't broken Roddick's serve once yet whilst he's just about surviving when he serves. 10-10 now with Federer to serve.

If Roger wins, he'll have done so because he survived (should have lost the match 3-1 by now). If Andy wins he'll have just about earned it.

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by rcgills

Have gone with under 34.5 aces at 2.1 (Paddy Power).

Close - just the 77 aces altogether

[stereoman]

Well Federer broke Roddick at the moment he needed! Eh. Should have never doubted him. In fact I should have slept through it instead!

50-27 to Federer in regards aces.

[MickeyPaul]

Seeee. Told you he'd win it without much fuss.

[Kiko]

The Bank of Fed - Unbelievable scenes!!!

Federer is GOD

[rioma]

Will we start a new tennis thread for "ATP-Newport" ? Who's in?

[rcgills]

Probably best off posting in this thread here, Rioma

http://thedailypunt.com/forum/tennis...-2009-a-6.html

It's only really the grand slams that get enough attention to merit a thread of their own.