Rolland Garros 2009

[engineer]

The qualifiers start off today, many bookies offer them available for betting, so take your chances, sometimes you could find great value in a qualifiing game.

Nadal's domination looks on the card more than ever.
He was nearly beaten by Djokovic at the semi last week and then outplayed and beaten by Federrer at the final. Can't see any of the others challenging, but still it looks an open event.

Share your French Open thoughts here, please.

[pitipa]

It depends on odds but in first round my favorites are:
Men
Soderling - Kim (maybe I´ll bet 3-0 on games, Soderling´s play looks good)
Gulbis - Querrey
Montanes - Tipsarevic
Monaco - Baghdatis
Melzer - Roitman
Berdych - Bolelli

Women
Lisicki - Safarova
Cornet - Ani

[kompressaur]

reading this-

Rafael Nadal may have seen his claycourt winning streak ended last weekend but don't let you fool you into thinking he's about to lose his French Open title.
While Nadal's defeat to Roger Federer in Madrid has to be ranked as a surprise, there were extenuating factors.

First of all, and perhaps most importantly, Nadal was playing less than 24 hours after an epic semi-final against Novak Djokovic.

At more than four hours it was physically demanding, and also mentally with Nadal having to save three match points.

The Madrid venue also helped Federer. At almost 1,000m above sea level, the ball fizzes through the air more in the Spanish captial. Conditions will be slower at Roland Garros and, as well as Federer served in Sunday's final, he'll do well dominate so much on his own delivery should the pair meet in Paris.

The Roland Garros draw has also helped Nadal.

He has avoided both Federer and Djokovic in his half and cannot meet either until the final.

Instead he's in with Andy Murray and although the Briton has certainly improved on clay in 2009, we feel he's easily the most vulnerable of the so-called 'Big Four'.
The other three we'd expect to see in the semis; it will be a big shock if they don't make it.

Federer hasn't been at his best this season but he's now boosted with confidence after his Madrid win and he returns to Roland Garros knowing only Nadal has beaten him here since 2004.

However, Djokovic, a semi-finalist in each of the last two years, may well fancy his chances of toppling Federer and reaching his first French final.

The Serb made a slow start to the season but has returned to top form in recent weeks and as already mentioned he was so close to beating Nadal in Madrid.
He also lost to the Spaniard in the finals of Monte Carlo and Rome, beating Federer in the semi-finals of the latter event, and won his 'home' event in Belgrade.
Given we have already backed Federer each-way in our ante-post preview, we feel it's now worth taking a slice of Djokovic too.

He's currently a best of 8/1 and given what he's achieved on clay so far in 2009, that seems more than fair.

As already explained, we don't see anyone beating Nadal, but at 4/11 he's one for the big hitters only.

The four-time defending champion has never lost at Roland Garros, nor has he ever lost a best-of-five-sets match.

Last year he won here without dropping a set and this could be a way of getting with the King of Clay in 2009. Coral go 5/1 about a repeat and that looks worthy of consideration.

Nadal was pushed to only one tie-break last year (by Djokovic) and it really would be no surprise for him to reach the final in straight sets.

Djokovic and Federer look the only players able to trouble him on this surface and he can only play one of them here.

You can be sure Nadal will not be 5/1 to win the final 3-0, so this looks a value call right now.

At time of writing the other specials on offer were limited, so we'll get with Djokovic and Nadal now, adding those bets to our ante-post picks.

NADAL SET TO DOMINATE AGAIN: Tennis Betting News - ATP/ WTA Betting and Tips, French Open Betting, Wimbledon, Andy Murray

[rcgills]

Gone for a few players on the outright markets whose price looks pretty big to me, hopefully some of them will give me a decent run for my money and the chance to lay off in the 2nd week.

Men's:

Monaco @ 430 (since gone out to 500 ) 1pt
Youzhny @ 1000 1pt
Stepanek @ 1000 1pt

Women's:

Cibulkova @ 350 - currently around 0.8pts matched, trying to get the remaining 0.2pts
Szavay @ 650 - currently around 0.6pts matched, trying to get the remaining 0.4pts
Martinez Sanchez @ 990 1pt

[edtkh]

Just some quick thoughts on this year's French Open after a rather lengthy sabbatical from these forums...

For the men's draw, it's rather straightforward and I can't see past a Nadal-Federer shootout once again - Djokovic, for all his prowess in the two Masters Series tournaments recently, still hasn't convinced me he has got the beating of Nadal. At least, not in a best of 5 encounter. Realistically, Nadal's cause could be helped greatly if Djokovic beats Federer in the semis. If Fed gets through, I'd expect him to have a real go at Nadal.

For the women's draw, the quality of the field is pretty poor - then again, it has always been that case over the last few years with Justine Henin being heads and shoulders above everyone else. That said, on the back of this year's draw (effectively ruling out any realistic challenge from the Williams sisters or the Serbian girls), I'd realistically make a call on the winner coming from one of the trio: Safina, Kuznetsova and Dementieva. I don't see any of the established names having a run at either of these three, although I have personally backed Sabine Lisicki to go on some sort of a run here. I think her giantkilling feats coming into RG have been impressive and she should surprise a few people here. With a bit of luck, making the second week isn't beyond her even if it means a rematch with V Williams in the 2nd round (as she'd previously demonstrated at Charleston).

[edtkh]

On to Day 1 now with a couple of bets...

20pts @ 4.95 Hills (12-fold acca)
Ivanovic
Safin
Mauresmo
Verdasco
Petrova
Murray
Stepanek
Almagro
Ferrer
Cilic
Li Na
Azarenka

It's pretty straightforward IMO as most of these folks are playing opponents who are at least 2 notches below them. I'm expecting two notably closer contests for Safin-Sidorenko and Stepanek-Gaudio.

Sidorenko is a French youngster who has flattered to deceive and shouldn't pose too many problems for the far more experience Safin. That said, you just never quite know what to expect with Safin if things don't go his way and the French crowd (possibly the most uncouthed lot at the 4 Slams) getting on his back, this could get a little edgy. That said, considering this is Safin's final season on tour and what is on paper a David-Goliath affair, I'd still expect Safin to take this in 4 sets at most.

Gaudio has improved considerably since he got his first win over Junqueira at an ATP-level event in years a couple of weeks back. Needless to say, as a former champion here, I don't think his class - at his best - has ever been very much in doubt. However, having watched one or two of his matches lately, his consistency is still sorely lacking as he tends to combine the sublime with the ridiculous in equal measure. If he maintains that sort of game, it's hard to see how he has got the beating of a far more reliable and consistent workhorse in Stepanek.

In short, got to say I'm very confident with the acca at stake as I'm covered with my selection voided should any player retire.



10pts @ 3.45 Hills (3-fold acca)
Hewitt
Almagro
Gulbis

Almagro to beat Calleri is pretty straightforward considering the aging Argentine hasn't done anything of note lately and is one of those perennial journeymen not expected to get past the first round at any Slam.

Despite trailing 3-0 on h2h, Hewitt's game on clay has come on in leaps and bounds recently following his hip surgery. I thought the claycourt tourny he won in the US (beating Odesnik) was testament to the progress he has since made (both physically in his return to fitness and tactically on clay). Notably, Karlovic has never claimed a victory over Hewitt on clay (twice on grass, once on hardcourts) and it's no secret claycourts are the Croat's achilles heel as his serves are far less effective. Expect Hewitt's grit to pull him through even if it went the distance.

I like the look of Gulbis and think he's a tad under-rated in this one. Gulbis proved his class on clay last year when he made a hell of a run (lost to Djokovic in QF) as an unheralded player. Although his claycourt preparations have been less impressive coming into RG this year, I feel he's still got too much for Querrey who has never really felt at home on the red dirt.


Cheers & Good Luck!

[Bigkegman]

nice posts all........ is this on the box ?

[jarulejt]

As a value for money bet i think im gonna whack an E/W on Blake, Was 250/1 @ PaddyPower.. A Nice price for a fairly decent player, You never know.. Anything can happen

And also i wouldnt write Federer off to win this cant remember his odds, but they were pretty decent

[pitipa]

Originally Posted by edtkh

On to Day 1 now with a couple of bets...



I like the look of Gulbis and think he's a tad under-rated in this one. Gulbis proved his class on clay last year when he made a hell of a run (lost to Djokovic in QF) as an unheralded player. Although his claycourt preparations have been less impressive coming into RG this year, I feel he's still got too much for Querrey who has never really felt at home on the red dirt.

I agree with this. Today I betted single bet 30euros on Gulbis. I think he has potential to reach at least quarterfinal.

[engineer]

Great work during the weekend, guys

It's on the box, Keg, Eurosport (their French branch at least) has it nearly completely covered.

OK, here are my outright bets (certainly there is much more value at the women):

Lay Nadal @1.5 - to win 5 pts (of course this price will drop a bit), I could have several more points on this one

Davydenko @260 - 0.5 pts

Ferrer @170 - 1pt

Wawrinka @480 - 0.5pts

Andreev, Gulbis, Kohlschreiber, Ljubicic - all @1000 - 4x0.25 pts


Women:

Lisicki @65 - 2 pts

Cornet @220 - 1pt

Larcher De Brito @1000 - 0.5 pts

Anna Lena Groenefeld @140 - 2pts, 2pts waiting to get matched @250 - my main outright bet after what I saw yesterday against Mauresmo

[edtkh]

Mauresmo that cnut - cost me what would otherwise have been a perfect opening day.

To be honest, I don't think Groenefeld was all that good - Mauresmo made her look much better than she really was.

Stick up some bets later - there're some rather interesting handicap bets out there (especially Nadal's and Federer's... )

[edtkh]

On a sidenote, does anyone have links to livestreaming (free) sites for the French Open for non-UK based folks?

[engineer]

Engineer's early bets for today (based on a short research and players' current form and condition):

Cibulkova to beat Bondarenko @2.22 - 5 pts.
Mostly opposing Alona here after her long runs in Madrid and Warsaw - I don't think she has so much high level tennis in her and she'll concentrate on the doubles along with her sister.

Massu to beat Koellerer @2.16 - 5 pts
The Austrian is a limited player, I even had the chance to watch him in Sofia last year when the only thing he did well was to break a chair and fall off with the chairman. Maybe he has improved a bit as he has decent results recently, but today I think Massu will have too much for him.

[edtkh]

A couple of bets for the second day then...

10pts @ 17.87 Hills (13-fold acca)
Nadal 3-0
Gonzalez
Williams
Lisicki
Sharapova 2-0
Federer 3-0
Mathieu
Govortsova
Chardy
Radwanska
Kirilenko
Bartoli
Wozniacki-Dushevina Under 18.5 Games

All pretty straightforward bar two. Potentially, Sharapova 2-0 and Govortsova could prove tricky banana skins in this acca.

Govortsova may not be a world beater, but she has done considerably well on claycourt leading up to Roland Garros. In short, this is not so much a bet on my faith in her as it is in my utter lack of faith in O'Brien being able to get anything from this one. As has happened ever so often in Slams, I remain totally unconvinced with any tennis player - bar Murray - who is remotely British.

Yakimova is a semi-decent player on clay, but I don't see her troubling a fit-again Sharapova too much here. With due respect, Sharapova's bigger threat would stem from her fitness rather than her opponent.


20pts @ 4.02 Ladbrokes (4-fold acca)
Lisicki
Govortsova
Wozniacki -6.5 Games

Wozniacki has a rather commanding 3-0 h2h record over Dushevia. She has a perfect record in having won all those ties 2-0 and having won all those ties with at least 8 games to spare. Most recently, Wozniacki won 6-0, 6-4 in Madrid (incidentally, also the only meeting on clay). On the back of that, it's hard to see past her walking this one.

Cheers & Good Luck!

[pitipa]

Today is easy pick for me Berdych @ 1.52. Maybe I will start to bet small amounts against Agnieszka Radwanska she doesn´t look good last weeks.