Rolland Garros 2009

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by edtkh

Nevertheless, good luck - it's 1-6, 6-3, 6-1, 3-2 (on serve) to Andreev as I write and should it ever surprise anyone if this goes the distance a la Wawrinka?

I'd settle for it going the distance, I'd already written it off when Fognini went a break down in the 4th set, so if he does get back into it I'll see it as a bonus.

[edtkh]

Looking at some of the results, I can't understand the whole tosh about female players demanding the same prize money as their male counterparts - incredible when you see nonsense like Glatch beating Pennetta (who had such a fine run in Stuttgart) and Rogowska beating Kirilenko in straight sets...

[edtkh]

Originally Posted by rcgills

I'd settle for it going the distance, I'd already written it off when Fognini went a break down in the 4th set, so if he does get back into it I'll see it as a bonus.

Congrats, we're set for a drama - as usual...

[rcgills]

Yes, some strange results there, and both of them you mentioned cost me today, having backed both Pennetta and Kirilenko in-running when they were a set down, expecting them to be able to get back into it.

On the plus side, though, I think it leaves room for some pretty decent value on the outright betting in the women's events - there are no truly outstanding candidates, in my opinion at least. The current world no. 1 has the massive total of 1 (losing) grand slam final to her name, the last-but-one world no. 1 (I think Serena was briefly there after her), Jankovic, has 2 (losing) grand slam finals.

I don't think it would really be a huge shock to see any of the top 4 players lose to anyone inside the top 40 or so (with some exceptions depending on the surface they're playing on), and that's certainly not something you can say of the men's event. I'm still quietly confident that an outsider will have a decent run here, and hopeful that it'll be one of my 3 - Cibulkova, Szavay or Martinez Sanchez.

[rcgills]

Incidentally, I had a small stakes acca on Kleybanova/Pennetta/Kirilenko/Lisicki/Wozniacki/Hernandez today. All odds-on favourites, combined odds 4.13. The first 4 have all lost, Wozniacki is a set down, Hernandez is 2 sets down, and both a break down in the current set.

Don't know what the odds would've been for an acca of all their opponents, but I suspect it would've been pretty huge. Anyone ever had a less successful acca?

[edtkh]

This is shocking - watching Wawrinka and Andreev reminds me of women's tennis sometimes. Case in point: Andreev was serving for the match at 5-4, got broken...incredible...and now, Fognini is on the brink of getting broken back right away...

[edtkh]

Originally Posted by rcgills

Yes, some strange results there, and both of them you mentioned cost me today, having backed both Pennetta and Kirilenko in-running when they were a set down, expecting them to be able to get back into it.

On the plus side, though, I think it leaves room for some pretty decent value on the outright betting in the women's events - there are no truly outstanding candidates, in my opinion at least. The current world no. 1 has the massive total of 1 (losing) grand slam final to her name, the last-but-one world no. 1 (I think Serena was briefly there after her), Jankovic, has 2 (losing) grand slam finals.

I don't think it would really be a huge shock to see any of the top 4 players lose to anyone inside the top 40 or so (with some exceptions depending on the surface they're playing on), and that's certainly not something you can say of the men's event. I'm still quietly confident that an outsider will have a decent run here, and hopeful that it'll be one of my 3 - Cibulkova, Szavay or Martinez Sanchez.

I'm not sure about the Williams sisters, really. Their runs coming into RG have been absolutely terrible (regardless of whatever is made about Serena's fitness). The more I look at it, the more I am convinced the winner wouldn't come from outside the Russian trio of Safina, Kuznetsova and Dementieva.

Jankovic and Ivanovic should cruise comfortably into the second week too IMO (I haven't taken a look at their draws, but QF/SF are reasonable), but expect them to come up short against the three Russians.

In essence, women's tennis is fast becoming a circus and if this had been the theatre, the WTA tour wouldn't even draw in half the crowd the ATP events do. Talk about socialism masked under the guise of gender equality...

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by rcgills

Women's:

Cibulkova @ 350 - currently around 0.8pts matched, trying to get the remaining 0.2pts
Szavay @ 650 - currently around 0.6pts matched, trying to get the remaining 0.4pts
Martinez Sanchez @ 990 1pt

Just to update that, managed to get the remainder matched on Cibulkova, but not on Szavay. Have now laid Szavay @ 220 for my stake back, and laid Martinez Sanchez for 0.5pts at 380 (wish I'd been quicker when her price inexplicably dropped as low as 120 for a while ).

Just quickly, bets for today:

Benneteau to beat Tsonga @ 3 2pts

Tsonga not at all at home on clay, Benneteau a finalist in Kitzbuhel last week. H2H 3-1 in favour of Benneteau

Niculescu v Wozniak @ 2.62 1pt

Don't see Wozniak as such a clear favourite here, happy to take Niculescu as the underdog.

Wickmayer 2-0 v U Radwanska @ 1.833 2.5pts

Wickmayer in excellent form on clay, albeit mainly at ITF level, winning one tournament and runner-up in another already this month. Radwanska 1-6 on clay this year, and 12-21 overall.

Zakopalova v Serena Williams @ 5.5 1.5pts

Serena in terrible form on clay, 3 tournaments played, 3 first round exits, one of them to Zakopalova. Worth a shot on her repeating the feat here.

Gullickson v Cirstea @ 3.25 1.5pts

Gullickson has been going fairly well on clay on the ITF circuit lately, and came through qualifying reasonably comfortably here. Don't see her as such an outsider for this one, think she can push Cirstea close.

[edtkh]

Just a couple of bets for Tuesday...

10pts @ 3.26 Hills (6-fold acca)
Gicquel
Troicki
Rybarikova
Monaco
Kuznetsova
Dementieva

Kuznetsova and Dementieva are self-explanatory. Rybarikova, while hasn't exactly been on fire, should still be too experienced for Mladenovic whose cameo appearance on virtue of her wildcard shouldn't last too long either. Monaco has been on fire in the many tournaments coming into RG - in contrast, Baghdatis hasn't done much on a surface he never really fancied to begin with.

I've been impressed with how Troicki has handled himself lately - really come on since the back end of last year. He's just too accomplished and seasoned a competitor for Kubot at this level as the latter seems to do the rounds in the Challengers.

Gicquel should also prove too strong for Schuettler here. Although Gicquel has made a few sporadic first and second round appearances at RG down the years, that record still trumps Schuettler's rather pathetic record of 5 first-round eliminations in 7 attempts (his best record was 4th Round in 2003, which came on the back of a surprise surge in form that saw him make the Aussie Open final).


10pts @ 3.05 Hills (6-fold acca)
Tsonga -4.5 Games
Djokovic
Crivoi

Djokovic should walk this one at a canter. Crivoi is another notable player to have done reasonably on clay lately and is improving rather rapidly against the lesser names on tour - can't see Gruel getting anything from this one in view of the contrasting forms the two have exhibiting leading up to RG.

Tsonga -4.5 has got to be the bet of the day for me. Regardless of what the h2h says, the pair has never met on clay and Tsonga won their solitary meeting on grass. Clearly, Benneteau's pedigree stems from him being a hardcourt player and he has had his fair share of woeful performances on clay (I thought he was obscenely and criminally incompetent when he threw in the towel against Hernandez at Monte Carlo). His mental capacity (just as it did against Hernandez in Monaco and Garcia-Lopez in Kitzbuhel) will let him down against a far more resilient competitor in Tsonga who is far more experienced on the big stage. In short, Tsonga is massively overpriced in this one.


10pts @ 3.05 Hills (6-fold acca)
Ljubicic
Monfils
Fish
Dementieva

Dementieva and Monfils are self-explanatory. No surprise considering the two are playing a young pretender and a claycourt inapt (Reynolds, just like so many Americans, isn't any better than Ginepri) respectively.

I like the look of Fish against Maximo Gonzalez. Fish has improved tremendously on this surface (he looked no better than the Ginepris and Reynolds a couple of years ago) and would, in my book, be ranked as arguably the second best American player on clay (that's not saying a lot considering Blake and Roddick aren't much of a claycourt player themselves) at the moment. Gonzalez, on the other hand, isn't used to getting much done despite spending a disproportionately large amount of his schedule on clay (playing events from challengers to small-scale ATP level tournies) - nothing to suggest he has much to offer given his abysmal results despite having spent almost an entire career focused on claycourt tournies.

I'm backing Ljubicic purely on the renaissance we've seen in a couple of claycourt Masters events lately. To have gone as far as he did and lose to Nadal and Djokovic in these tournies isn't something to be ashamed about. Ferrero, on the other hand, has struggled to impress since the claycourt season started. Hard to look past the Croat on current form.

Cheers & Good Luck!

[rcgills]

You not worried Monfils' injury might flare up, Edtkh? It was doubtful whether he'd even be here for this tournament at one stage a few weeks ago.

[edtkh]

Originally Posted by rcgills

You not worried Monfils' injury might flare up, Edtkh? It was doubtful whether he'd even be here for this tournament at one stage a few weeks ago.

Not really, rcgills. To be honest, I think there're probably one or two players who have got more to worry about injuries - Serena Williams would probably be at the top of the pile.

My personal take is so long as Monfils is fit enough to start the match, there's not a lot Reynolds could do...

[engineer]

You put really brave accys there, ed

Unsurprisingly, I'm with RC on nearly all of his bets, will only miss the Cirstea game.
But Benneteau, Niculescu, Wickmayer and Zakopalova are well worth backing at their respective prices.
Can't really see Tsonga making some progress here, it could be another first-round-Paris exit for him.

The other bets I'll be on:

Dushevina still riding from yesterday against Woznianki - in the evening layed Wozniacki @1.19, 1.21 and 1.23 for a decent profit, the Russian touched 1.41 in the second set, but things look different now. Still, I have hopes for this bet.

Several speculative punts with a decent chance (except Zakopalova):

Reynolds to beat Monfils @6 - 1.5 pts

Mannarino to beat Robredo @18 - 0,5 pts

Ruano Pascual to beat Vaidisova @3.1 - 2 pts

Mayer to beat Blake @4.5 - 1 pt


The serious bets:

Gonzalez to beat Fish @2.52 - 4pts

Razzano to beat Hantuchova @2.32 - 3 pts

Ljubicic to beat Ferrero @1.81 - 5 pts

Makarova to beat M. Garrigues @2.46 - 3 pts

Tursunov to beat Clement @2.72 - 3 pts

Schiavone to beat Stosur @1.81 - 5 pts

[engineer]

And the bet of the day for me is a double - Seppi + Wickmayer at nearly evens - 7 pts

[engineer]

Sometimes it looks impossible for the ladies to win points on their own serve, doesn't it? It even looks like they are struggling to throw the ball across the net on serve. Look at the Hantuchova - Razzano game - there are much more breaks than holds, it was even worse on the Tanasugarn v Pin game yesterday

[edtkh]

Originally Posted by engineer

Sometimes it looks impossible for the ladies to win points on their own serve, doesn't it? It even looks like they are struggling to throw the ball across the net on serve. Look at the Hantuchova - Razzano game - there are much more breaks than holds, it was even worse on the Tanasugarn v Pin game yesterday

Sometimes? That has got to be the biggest understatement I have heard in a long time...

If women (well, generally speaking, and not just referring to an elite few) could hold their serves more often, the WTA wouldn't be the mobile circus it now is...